These projections are from Democraticspace a very informative election site. The update is of Sept. 25. Since the Sept. 19 projection the Liberals are up one and the Conservative down one, and every one else is the same. The Greens do not seem to be breaking through to win any seats. It does not seem as if the Tories are gaining any momentum.
Update 22: Post-Debate Shows Little Change
Tuesday September 25th 2007, 3:23 pm
Filed under: Canadian Politics, - 2007 ON Election
The first post-debate poll by SES, shows the Liberals with an 8% edge, but when rolled into our 5-poll weighted average, it shows little change. The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberalson the edge of majority, again suggesting that either a minority or majority government is possible. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are projected at 56 seats (2 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 40.5%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 39 seats and 35.0% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 15.9% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 7.2% support and no seats, and all others at 1.4%.
Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the latest SES poll (through 23 Sept). Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 3,589 surveys conducted between 14 and 23 Sept and have a margin of error of +/- 1.64%.
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