The Recent Ipsos-Reid Poll on Ontario election

Although the Liberal lead has weakened a bit the projections still show a slim majority Liberal government but as the article notes there is a month left and not much change is needed for a minority government. However, it looks as if the Conservatives have their work cut out for them if they are expecting a majority or even a Conservative minority. It seems that opposition to faith based school funding has not translated into reduced Tory votes or at least that it has is not obvious.
The website for Ipsos-Reid is here.

Toronto, ON – A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television and released on the eve of the official launch of the Ontario provincial election campaign finds that John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives have narrowed the gap in their race against Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals from a seven-point deficit measured on August 24th to a five-point deficit today--a result that comes in the face of John Tory’s apparently unpopular stance in favour of faith-based funding for schools, which apparently has been partially offset by the latest Conservative “McGuinty’s record of broken promises” radio blitz.

The results find that 41% of Ontarians would support the Ontario Liberals, while 36% would support the Progressive Conservative party. The NDP led by Howard Hampton would receive the support of 17% of Ontarians if an election were held tomorrow, while the Green Party under Frank de Jong would receive the support of 6% of Ontarians.


The poll also finds that three in five Ontarians (62%) oppose the Ontario Government extending full funding to all faith-based schools, not only the Catholic schools, a stance championed by Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory. Opposition to the plan cuts across party lines, and is opposed by majorities of Liberal supporters as well as Tory’s own PC supporters. In fact, if given a choice, a majority in the province support a public school only system (53%) compared with the status quo (23%) and extended funding (21%).


While the faith-based funding issue may weigh as an anchor on PC support, a majority Ontarians (52%) also say that it’s time for new leadership in the province compared to 41% who say that the Liberal government under Dalton McGuinty deserves re-election.


It remains to be seen which problem, faith-based funding for schools or the lack of faith in Premiers leadership--with opposition critical of "broken promises"--will compel Ontario’s voters in the run up to the October 10th contest.

And in a seat model done exclusively for Ipsos Reid using an aggregate of the last five publicly released polls, including today’s result, by DemocraticSPACE show McGuinty’s Liberals with 55 seats (40 solid, 15 leaning), Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 40 seats (28 solid, 12 leaning) and Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats (9 solid, 3 leaning). With 107 seats in the Legislature, the seat model is currently projecting a likely slim Liberal majority government if the polling numbers appeared in real vote as they are herein on Election Day, October 10, 2007. However, with a month ahead in the campaign, these numbers will likely change.