Fall election only hope for Dion

This is from the Star Pheonix in Saskatoon. As Dion himself has said one of his great virtues that people have always underestimated him. This may be true of his performance in a Federal Election. I certainly hope that the opposition does bring down the Harper government. The best result would be another minority government with the Liberals and NDP or BQ forming the majority.
Of course it is always possible that the result could be another Conservative minority!

Fall election only hope for Dion

Les MacPherson
The StarPhoenix


Tuesday, September 18, 2007





Poor Stephane Dion. He's intelligent, he's accomplished, he means well and he's a bust as a political leader. Even before he presided over the byelection loss of a Liberal fortress in Outremont, Dion's uninspiring leadership was already in question. What's in question now are his career prospects. He's bleeding now into shark-infested water. It can't help his confidence that they are Liberal sharks.

Conventional wisdom holds that Dion won't dare force a federal election this fall, not with his party routed and retreating in confusion. My own thinking is that a fall election represents his only chance for survival. Unless he confronts his opponents, and soon, his rivals will get him first.

They'll likely get him anyway, for there's no reason to believe that the Liberals under Dion will do better in a general election campaign than they did in Outremont. Were he to lose, he'd be through. Still, a fall election is his only shot. If he waits, as weakened as he is, it will be someone else leading the Liberals into the next election. Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae and Gerard Kennedy are extremely available.

There is a chance, albeit a slim one, that Dion will perform better in an election campaign than he has as opposition leader. Why, he might even win the thing. At least this is what he'll tell himself, and not entirely without justification. Polls suggest that Stephen Harper's governing Conservatives are anything but secure. The Liberals somehow are still in the game. An upset is not out of reach. Dion will want to take his shot now, while he still can. His alternative is to be pulled down from behind and let someone else take the shot next year.

Dion can take inspiration from across the Commons floor. Harper was not exactly a hot commodity going into the last election. Rather, he was widely dismissed, especially in Central Canada, as another Western, populist rube with no prospects in Quebec or Ontario. His impressive campaign was what won it for him, although Liberal ineptitude didn't hurt. The point is that an election campaign can transform a leader from a wiener into a winner. This is what Dion will be hoping for. This is why he'll be more, not less, likely to want a fall election. To carry on doing what he's been doing is not an option. His rivals will see to it.

Of course, the timing of an election is not Dion's call. His Liberals don't have enough seats to defeat the Conservative minority. They'll need help from at least one of the other opposition parties. Watch for the NDP to oblige. The party's pacifist Afghanistan policy cannot be reconciled with support for a Conservative government committed to fighting. New Democrats will also be thinking they might pick up a few seats at the expense of the listless Liberals and the seemingly vulnerable Conservatives.

For Dion, only a win will do. Three months from now, he'll either be the prime minister or he'll be political dust. What could make the difference are winning policies. Here are a couple of ideas for him:

The one thing Canadians everywhere are talking about that politicians are not talking about is the cost of housing. Owning a home has never been more unaffordable. Even a starter home in many jurisdictions is beyond the means of most young families. That might explain why almost half of Canadians age 17 to 29 are still living with their parents. If I was Dion, I'd offer some kind of assistance to help these people become homeowners. An obvious way to do this is to make mortgage payments tax deductible, as they are in the U.S. This would appeal to the construction, forestry and financial industries, to young families squeezed out of the housing market by skyrocketing prices and, especially, to parents with grown children still at home. With federal surpluses in the billions, Ottawa can afford it.

Another possible election winner is public transportation. Harper made a favourable impression with voters a year ago by promising to make bus passes tax deductible, a small but practical gesture. Dion could go much further by offering to help cities build subways or sky trains, with the cost covered by a new energy tax. This would appeal to greenies by reducing pollution, energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions and SUV sales. City dwellers would also welcome a federal commitment to high-speed, public transportation that zooms over or under the ubiquitous traffic congestion.

Others will have other ideas. Whatever they are, bold, popular policies and an early election are Dion's best hope for political survival. His enemies, aside from the emboldened rivals in his own party, are time and business as usual.

lmacpherson@sp.canwest.com