New Poll puts Liberals further ahead of Tories

This is an article from the Ottawa Sun. The article puts the sunniest interpretation on the data. It will be interesting to see if the Conservative broken promises ad makes much of a dent in Liberal support. Both parties seem to be opting for primarily negative ads although the Liberals do point to some accomplishments. The Liberals also stress the negative aspects of Tory rule. Amazing that now it is possible to use Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution as a bogeyman! Yesterday's prize marketing campaign becomes today's albatross. Just part of capitalist electoral advertising that moves
in mysterious ways its wonders to perform.

Tue, September 11, 2007

Grits hit election ground runningTuesday, 3:55 p.m.: Tories trail in pre-election poll
By COLIN PERKEL, CP




TORONTO — Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives headed into the election campaign facing an uphill battle to form the next provincial government, a new Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey suggests.

And there’s evidence the hill became steeper in the days just prior to the formal start of the campaign, as Conservative Leader John Tory stumbled with his proposal to provide public funding for faith-based schools.

A survey of 721 residents, gathered over the last four days of last week, put Liberal support at 41 per cent, compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives, 13 per cent for the New Democrats and 11 per cent for the Greens.

The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. But the pollsters also combined their latest survey with polling conducted during the previous two weeks, creating what Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson called a “rolling average” with an error margin of about 3.1 percentage points.

Anderson says the result is a “remarkable” and “statistically significant” increase in the Liberal lead over the Conservatives.


“We had been looking at gaps between the two parties of three to five percentage points,” Anderson said in an interview Tuesday.

“What we’re really seeing (now) is a gap that is more like nine percentage points.” Anderson said the poll results suggest the general desire among voters for change is weak.

In the absence of dissatisfaction, it is rare for voters to toss incumbents from office, as they did in 2003 when the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty successfully campaigned on the slogan “Choose Change” to defeat the Conservatives.

“This is not, classically speaking, a time when there’s huge angst about government and a need for change that’s felt very profoundly,” Anderson said.

The poll also suggests the Liberals have managed to take better control of the agenda than have the Conservatives under John Tory, who is trying to frame his campaign around McGuinty’s record for breaking his campaign promises.

Tory appears to be losing steam also as a consequence of a showcase commitment — bringing private religious schools under the public funding umbrella — that lacks public support, Anderson said.

And while some respondents do feel the premier has violated their trust — imposing a health premium after promising no new taxes, for instance — the issue doesn’t seem to have dominated thus far, he added.

“To the extent that there has been a single issue that appears to have captured a fair bit of interest, it’s the probably the faith-based education proposal by the Conservatives,” he said.

“In this case, it’s attracted attention and it’s cost the Conservatives support.”

Still, hammering away at McGuinty’s record of broken promises may prove to be Tory’s strongest card, especially if he can build on voter confidence that he is a politician of his word, Anderson added.