Hot Races in Ontario Election

Here is a list of hot races according to the London Free Press.

There are interesting little analytical blurbs attached to each riding. Reading them I get the impression that there is a very strong split between southern rural seats which tend to be Conservative and large urban areas that are Liberal and NDP. I wonder if Tory's position on funding faith-based schools might not help him in a few ridings.
As mentioned the loss of industrial jobs might help the NDP in Oshawa. Interesting that the big union workers in Oshawa voted in a Tory. They have reaped their rewards. But the NDP probably could not have done much. However they would have tried to make the best of a bad situation for the workers.


Handicapping hot races

Several London-region ridings are among the races to watch as the Ontario election swings into action tomorrow.
By CHRISTINA BLIZZARD, SUN MEDIA


TORONTO -- The Ontario election campaign kicks off officially tomorrow, with 107 seats -- up from 103 now -- up for grabs in a legislature boosted in size by recent population growth.

With early polls showing the ruling Liberals heading for a minority government, a number of ridings will be hotly contested.

Among the seats that could be in play, region-by-region across Ontario, and key candidates to watch, as the Oct. 10 vote nears:

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

- Lambton-Kent-Middlesex: Liberal policies haven't gone over well in rural Ontario. Fallout from the Walkerton inquiry into the town's tainted-water disaster has forced homeowners to make expensive updates to wells and imposed onerous rules on farmers. Liberal Maria Van Bommell, the MPP in the rural riding the size of Prince Edward Island, hasn't been active enough at Queen's Park to ensure re-election. Running against her is Monte McNaughton of the Progressive Conservatives and Joyce Joliffe for the New Democrats. Ipperwash is in the riding, and many residents blame the Liberals for not re-opening Ipperwash Provincial Park. It's been closed since a native occupation in 1995, marked by the fatal shooting of a native protester. Many fear park ownership may stay in dispute.

- Sarnia-Lambton: Culture Minister Caroline Di Cocco only made it into cabinet after it became clear she was in trouble in the riding. A smouldering issue is the jobs-versus-environment flareup over the Liberal government's broken election vow to close Ontario's dirty, coal-fired power plants by now. The riding is home to Ontario Power Generation's Lambton generating station, the region's largest air polluter but with many good-paying jobs. Many locals would like to see the province add more anti-pollution technology to the plant, saying it doesn't make sense to close it when so much dirty air blows into the area from the nearby U.S. industrial midwest. Running against Di Cocco is Tory Bob Bailey. In a swing riding, he could just beat her. The NDP is running Barb Millitt.

- London-Fanshawe: Liberal Khalil Ramal has been virtually invisible at Queen's Park. This one is considered winnable by the NDP, where 23-year-old Stephen Maynard is challenging Ramal. Maynard may be young, but he's already run federally and did well in London-North Centre and works for London NDP MP Irene Mathyssen.

TORONTO

- Don Valley West: All eyes will be on Conservative Leader John Tory as he squares off against Education Minister Kathleen Wynne in what promises to be a doozy. First elected in 2005 in Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, Tory pledged then to run in Toronto this time. His disadvantage is that he will be out of the riding most of the election, campaigning provincewide. Until 2003, this was a staunchly PC riding, but the Tories have no seats in Toronto and desperately need this breakthrough.

- Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Environment Minister Laurel Broten has raised some eyebrows in her home patch with her family's plans for a giant garage. They've ditched the plans, but she came across as arrogant. Taking her on is Tory Tom Barlow, a lawyer with business and tax experience. Andrea Nemeth is running for the NDP.

GREATER TORONTO AREA

- Oshawa: This is a rematch between longtime Tory incumbent Jerry Ouellette, who's held the seat since 1995, and Sid Ryan -- CUPE Ontario's president and some-time Sun Media columnist. When the good times rolled, well-heeled unionized auto workers were happy to send a Tory to Queen's Park. With the recent announcement of 1,000 layoffs at GM's truck plant, the future doesn't look so rosy. Those workers may choose the high-profile Ryan to be a spokesperson for their angst. The Liberals have pumped more than $1 billion into their auto strategy. It doesn't appear to be paying off.

- Thornhill: Ground zero for the faith-based schools issue, the riding has more private religious schools than any other in Ontario. Liberal Mario Racco is strong in the riding, but his presence hasn't been felt much at Queen's Park. He's being challenged by popular CFRB radio talk show host Peter Shurman. On election day, all those parents with kids in private religious schools may not be happy with Premier Dalton McGuinty's characterization of them as, "segregationist."

EASTERN ONTARIO

- Prince Edward-Hastings: Agriculture Minister Leona Dombrowsky may be in trouble against Eric DenOuden, a home builder with strong local ties. Farmers have been marching on Queen's Park for the past three years. Rural Ontario isn't pleased and may send a message loud and clear to the Liberal government.

- Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington: This newly created riding will be the dustup to watch. It's a classic showdown of styles. Randy Hillier, a strident advocate for farmers and the rural way of life, is pitted against soft-spoken academic Liberal Ian Wilson, who has a strong record as a former reeve and warden. Hillier won his nomination in an upset and is considered to the very right of the PC party. If he wins, he could be John Tory's worst nightmare.

NORTHERN ONTARIO

- Thunder Bay-Atikokan: Despite a last minute spending promise frenzy, the Liberals are in deep trouble. The north has lost as many as 40,000 jobs and Liberal Bill Mauro is in trouble here. The Liberal policy to close coal-fired plants doesn't play well in Atikokan, its largest employer a coal plant. The massive pay hike MPPs voted themselves is also wildly unpopular when unemployment is high. New Democrat challenger John Rafferty is making solid gains against him. Tory Rebecca Johnson also has a strong profile, making this a tight three-way race, with Rafferty coming up the middle.