This is from the Globe. There is another article by Preston Manning claiming that Stelmach might be defeated. The article is short on specifics but it seems as if Manning is not happy about Stelmach on the environment. Manning has become very concerned about environmental issues. But he also thinks he Stelmach is not competent but his specific criticism is not given.
I can't see Stelmach losing certainly not on the royalties issue since his opponents are for higher royalties. Obviously some of the Alberta bigwigs would like a further right government but there is none in waiting. Maybe they will have to revive Social Credit!
Stelmach facing tumultuous fall sitting
JIM MACDONALD
THE CANADIAN PRESS
November 4, 2007 at 1:32 PM EST
EDMONTON — Alberta politics is starting to sizzle, setting the stage for tumult when the legislature reconvenes Monday for a fall sitting.
The Progressive Conservatives have governed Alberta for 36 years with solid and sometimes massive majorities. But history has shown that Alberta voters change governments in a hurry at this mark, and cracks appear to be showing in Premier Ed Stelmach's government.
“I think the political landscape in Alberta now is in a time of transition,” says political analyst Keith Brownsey.
“There is a sense that the government has been in office far too long and there needs to be some kind of change. But I think voters are uncertain of what kind of change.”
Mr. Stelmach's popularity has dropped steadily since he took office early in the new year and he now faces several divisive issues, including plans for a major increase in energy royalties.
But opinion polls suggest that the opposition parties have made few gains at his expense, and as many as one-third of voters are undecided about who to support should he call an election.
“I've never seen such a time in Alberta politics and I'm not sure many of us ever have,” says Alberta Liberal Opposition Leader Kevin Taft. “It's unpredictable and it feels like people are grumpy and looking for change.”
“It's almost like a page of history is turning right now in Alberta. One chapter is over and a new chapter is about to begin, and there's almost nothing the Conservatives can do to stop that from happening.”
Mr. Stelmach has taken a gamble with his plan to increase energy royalties by 20 per cent starting in 2009 with the goal of taking in an extra $1.4-billion annually by the following year. Last week a director of the Tory constituency association in Wood Buffalo — the heart of the oil sands — quit the party over it.
“It will come as no surprise to you that I feel strongly that, under the new premier, our party is on the wrong track,” Derek Rolstone wrote in his letter of resignation.
“It's hard to see the royalty changes as anything but a scheme for votes. After all, in a province with no debt, extremely high GPP (gross provincial product), highest per person spending in Canada, and where companies already contribute billions, why (is) it really necessary to extract more and more?”
The government has started an advertising blitz to sell the royalty plan. At the same time, a second layer of ads under the title A Report to Albertans is promoting the accomplishments of the premier since he took office 10 months ago.
Stelmach spokesman Paul Stanway says the $277,000 cost of the newspaper and radio campaign is actually a bargain compared to the price of province-wide mail-outs used in the past.
“I don't believe it's partisan,” says Mr. Stanway. “It's clearly labelled as a report to Albertans, which is the normal communications that we have with Albertans three times a year.”
“I think the decision was that it would have looked a bit like overkill if we'd done this advertising campaign and then also a full mail-out of the report to Albertans.”
New Democrat Leader Brian Mason says the punchy slogans and Tory party colours in the newspaper ads leave the impression that the government is preparing for an early election.
“I think (Albertans) see them for what they are. Government propaganda, Conservative party propaganda that they're paying for.”
But a senior government official told The Canadian Press there is no plan for a fall election because the Premier wants some major initiatives completed before going to the polls, including a 20-year capital plan for new roads, schools, hospitals and other projects.
Mr. Brownsey says the one thing Mr. Stelmach's Tories can be thankful for is that the Liberals and New Democrats are not increasing in voter popularity, so the only number that's going up is the undecided.
“They're looking for somewhere else to go. It's up to the opposition parties now to give them that place,” he says.
That place may be hard to find, if the Derek Rolstone case is any indication. Marty Giles, a Tory official in Wood Buffalo, put it this way:
“Derek's got to do what he's got to do. But both the Liberals and the NDP think the royalties didn't go far enough. If he thought it was too much, where's he going to go?”
Mr. Brownsey expects the government will start rolling out the goodies in the coming months, including a commitment to support a privately funded high-speed rail link between Edmonton and Calgary.
“Not only would this solve some transportation issues, but it would be environmentally friendly and it would certainly put a new gloss on the Conservative government in Alberta.”
The Tories have laid out an ambitious agenda for the one-month fall sitting, with 19 bills left over from the spring along with seven new bills, including one to allow photo speed traps to be added to red light photo radar.
The most contentious piece of legislation is Bill 46, which has already created an uproar among some landowners who say it will restrict public participation in utility hearings.
The opposition parties are spoiling for a fight, but a government insider says Bill 46 will be heavily amended in the coming weeks to relieve public concerns and return the focus to its original intent which is to split the energy and utilities regulator into two separate bodies.
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