Premier Stelmach in Washington Selling the Oil Sands

The oil drilling rig disaster has given Stelmach an opening to sell Washington on the virtues of tar sands oil. It may be dirty but it will not pollute U.S. coast fisheries and beaches! It will be interesting to see if Obama changes his mind about not importing dirty oil. Actually, I do not see why Stelmach is so concerned about marketing Tar Sands oil. If the U.S. will not use the oil certainly China and no doubt many other countries will buy it and probably at better prices into the bargain. This is from the Edmonton Sun.

Premier Stelmach in Washington
By LINDA HOANG, EDMONTON SUN



Premier Ed Stelmach has made a trip to Washington D.C. to convince American legislators they need Alberta oil.

The Premier met with U.S. senators in an effort to try and improve the image of Alberta's oil sands. He talked about how greener policies by the Obama government that could distance the U.S. from Alberta oil could be damaging for both sides.

"We have to ensure that U.S. legislators are aware of the impact their decisions have on Alberta and Canadian energy suppliers and the impact it might have on American workers," he said. "We must ensure that all interests in this legislation understand the risks to their economies."

Stelmach said the trip was positive and senators were aware of how important the Canadian oil supply is.

Alberta invests in family medicine program

Stelmach no doubt is reacting to his poor polls and criticism of Alberta Health. The money is directed to Calgary where Stelmach is probably least popular. This is a case of the squeaky wheel getting the grease with no money going to Edmonton or elsewhere. However, no doubt doctors who pass through the program will probably practice throughout the province and the need in Calgary does seem quite high.

$8M aimed to fix shortage of family doctors
CBC News
The Alberta government is spending $8 million to help direct more medical school graduates toward family medicine, where there is a chronic doctor shortage.

The funding, announced Thursday, will go to the family medicine department at the University of Calgary to:

Train more medical students and physicians in family medicine.
Create five new faculty positions.
Support research.
"[The funding] helps stabilize our department. It helps it grow and build greater capacity," said Dr. David Keegan, the department's undergraduate education director.

Despite there being 4,000 family doctors in Alberta, it's estimated there's a shortage of more than 1,000 family physicians for the province's 3.5 million residents.

One in four Calgarians don't have a family doctor.

"Our goal is that by 2013, half of our graduates are choosing family medicine as their first choice of career," said Keegan.

In 2008, only 18 per cent of medical graduates in Calgary pursued family medicine as a career, he said.

"That was the lowest in our history. It's gone up a bit since then, but it's still only 26.9 [per cent] when we really want to be looking at about 50 per cent," said Keegan.

Dr. Cathy MacLean, president of the College of Family Physicians of Canada and head of family medicine at the U of C, said the provincial money should have a quick impact.

"One of the nice things about family medicine is our training program is only two years. You actually get to see those docs out in practice within about a two-year timeframe, so it's pretty quick," MacLean said.

Wild Roses thorn in Stelmach's side.

These are rather amazing numbers especially after Stelmach received a 77 per cent endorsement as leader not long ago. One just wonders if the usual kingmakers are doing an end run around the Conservative party especially since the Wild Roses seem to be gr0wing strongest in the two big cities not just in rural areas.
Of course polls did not look all that marvelous for Stelmach before he gained his big majority in the last election and Ralph Klein was even worse off before he stormed back and won an election a year later. Nevertheless it is hard to put any positive spin on these results as far as Stelmach is concerned.


Wildrose No. 1 in Alberta, poll finds
Tory support falls to lowest in 17 years
By Jason Fekete, Calgary HeraldDecember 11, 2009 6:36 AM

CALGARY - The surging Wildrose Alliance would form the next provincial government if an election were held in Alberta, according to a new poll that pegs the party with a double-digit lead and the dynastic Tories at their lowest popular support in 17 years.

An Angus Reid Public Opinion survey of 1,000 decided Alberta voters finds 39 per cent of the electorate would cast a ballot for party leader Danielle Smith and the right-of-centre Wildrose Alliance if they went to the polls today.

The fledgling party is pulling away from Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives, who are tied with David Swann's Liberals for second place, with the backing of 25 per cent of decided voters provincewide.

Brian Mason and the NDP are in fourth spot with the support of nine per cent of Alberta voters, while two per cent said they would vote for another party.

The Wildrose Alliance -- buoyed by their recent leadership race and byelection win in Calgary-Glenmore -- is solidly in first place in every region of the province, according to the poll.

The Tories have slipped to third place in both Calgary and Edmonton amid challenging economic times, and continued public criticism over the government's financial management and H1N1 vaccination rollout.

"It's no secret that the Wildrose Alliance have been gaining momentum," said Angus Reid pollster Hamish Marshall. "Right now, they're on track to form a government."

The current survey data, which reflect similar trending from other recent opinion polls, would put the Wildrose Alliance "right on the line" between a majority or minority government, he said.

But Marshall cautioned the numbers reflect a snapshot in time and that the next provincial election is likely at least two years away.

The latest poll numbers are believed to be the worst for the Tories since 1992, when Laurence Decore's Liberals were in the low 40s, before Ralph Klein's PCs stormed back to win the provincial election the following year.

They also come about a month after Stelmach's own party gave him a 77 per cent vote of confidence in the Conservative leadership review.

The Angus Reid results show support for the Wildrose party is growing in every corner of the province -- at the expense of the Tories, who've ruled Alberta since 1971.

In Calgary, the Wildrose Alliance is backed by 38 per cent of voters, followed by the Liberals with 30 per cent, Conservatives at 23 per cent and NDP at six per cent, according to the poll.

"Clearly people seem to have turned their backs on the PCs and the Stelmach government," Marshall added.

In Edmonton, the Wildrose party leads with 36 per cent support, the Liberals are at 26 per cent, PCs at 25 per cent and NDP at 12 per cent.

In rural Alberta -- historically the bedrock of Tory support -- Smith's party is way out in front with the backing of 44 per cent of voters outside the major cities, compared to 25 per cent for the PCs, 21 per cent for the Grits and seven per cent for the NDP.

"If these numbers are true, it's beyond worry (for the Tories). I think they should be terrified," said David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary.

"With these numbers, it's really a race to the bottom, a toboggan ride to nowhere."

One of the most worrisome points for the Conservatives, he said, is that the Wildrose Alliance is leading by large margins in all regions of the province.

While the latest poll results are open for debate, Taras noted one thing that's certain is the trend line for the ruling Conservatives continues to sink -- while the Wildrose Alliance continues to improve -- which indicates changing public opinion.

But the deeper question for the provincial political landscape goes beyond public opinion, to whether Albertans have made a judgment on Stelmach as premier, he said.

"Public opinion can change, but it's much more difficult to change a judgment," he added.

Several question marks remain, however, with the Wildrose Alliance and its leader, Taras said, noting the party still must clearly define some of its policies and carve out an identity prior to the next election, expected in 2012.

What's more, he said Alberta's decreasing voter turnout could also play a large role in whether survey numbers hold true on election day, noting the Tories' sliding poll results prior to the 2008 election before they stormed to a massive majority.

Three separate polls over the past few months have shown a steady decline in backing for the Conservatives and an increase in support for the Wildrose Alliance.

An early October poll conducted by the Citizen Society Research Lab at Lethbridge College found 38 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories, while subsequent polls later in the month from Return on Insight and Environics both had the Conservatives at 34 per cent.

Those same surveys pegged the Wildrose Alliance at 22, 25 and 28 per cent, respectively.

The new Angus Reid online poll of 1,000 randomly selected Albertans was conducted Nov. 23-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The regional breakdowns have a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points in Calgary, 5.7 in greater Edmonton and 4.9 in the rest of Alberta.

jfekete@theherald.canwest.com

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, left, and Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith.Photograph by: Archives, Calgary Herald

Stelmach wins 77 per cent support for his leadership

The media always seems to be down on Stelmach. Stelmach is not the choice of the party elite and power brokers especially those associated with Calgary and the oil patch. He did much better in the provincial election than people thought he would and he has done better at this convention than many thought. I wonder if the Wild Roses are becoming less disgruntled rural right wingers and more urban prickly Calgary thistles, disgruntled urban power brokers.


Stelmach still the man for the Tories Share with friends
KATHERINE O'NEILL

RED DEER, ALTA. — From Monday's Globe and Mail


.Despite receiving a strong vote of confidence from his party, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach still has a lot of heavy lifting to do in order to satisfy both Progressive Conservatives and other grumpy Alberta voters.

"[The result] puts the Premier in a position of comfort ... but indicates to him there is room for improvement," Edmonton Tory MLA Thomas Lukaszuk said Saturday, shortly after Mr. Stelmach received 77 per cent support in a mandatory leadership review at the party's annual convention in Red Deer.

Heading into the vote, there were predictions Mr. Stelmach was going to fare much worse considering recent public opinion polls that show Albertans are increasingly unimpressed with both him and his party, which has governed the province uninterrupted since 1971. Many people are flocking to the upstart Wildrose Alliance Party, a right-wing rival to the Tories that recently elected Danielle Smith, a young former media commentator, to lead it.

A Tory party delegate from Edmonton, who didn't want to identified, said that she supported Mr. Stelmach in the secret-ballot vote only because she didn't want to help throw the party into a leadership race at a time when the once-booming Alberta is suffering through a recession. "I supported him now, but things better change or else I'm done," she said.

Many Albertans, not just card-carrying Tories, are unhappy with the way the government has handled several files, including the province's finances.

"Changes are coming," Mr. Stelmach promised party members during a speech after Saturday's vote. The next general election is expected to be held in March, 2012. The PCs currently hold 70 of Alberta's 83 seats.

During the convention, several party members told Mr. Stelmach that his government needed to improve its communications strategy.

"I really do feel that the policies we have are the right ones for Alberta, but it's difficult to get it through the present media that's available to us," Mr. Stelmach said, adding the government plans to use social media more to connect directly with Albertans.

There is already speculation many Wildrose Alliance members are delighted Mr. Stelmach is no longer in danger of losing his job because they believe Ms. Smith would easily outperform him in the next election.

Tory cabinet minister Ted Morton, who ran against Mr. Stelmach in the 2006 party leadership race, said it would be dangerous to underestimate the Premier, and he expects him to lead the Tories to "another big majority."

Mr. Morton said the Wildrose Alliance faces several challenges in the months ahead, including drafting policy and going "through the difficulty of building a new party."

"The honeymoon for Danielle Smith is over," he said.

Stelmach support plumetting

Alberta seems to be the most fickle and most stable electorate. Although they tend to elect huge majorities when they get upset they are probably the most apt to vote for a new party--usually a brand new branch of the Conservatives! I wonder if those Wild Rosers also smell of the oil patch Conservatives who are angry that Stelmach won the leadership race!

Voter support plummets for PCs, Stelmach: poll

CBC News
Political support for Alberta's Progressive Conservative party is dropping at a dramatic pace with a majority of respondents in a new opinion poll disapproving of Premier Ed Stelmach's leadership.
If an election were held today, the Tories would still lead with 30 per cent support, followed by the Wildrose Alliance with 22 per cent, according to the survey conducted by Return On Insight, a strategic research consulting company.
The Alberta Liberals would place third with 18 per cent support, followed by the Alberta NDP with nine per cent, and the Green Party of Alberta — which was deregistered as a provincial political party in July — with four per cent.
'Much of the disenchantment rests with the perceived lack of leadership by Premier Ed Stelmach.'—Bruce Cameron, pollster
About one in eight Albertans, or 12 per cent, said they were undecided, while five per cent mentioned other parties.
The survey of 802 Albertans was done between Oct. 2-7 by phone using a random dialing sample. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Among decided voters, the Tories received only 34 per cent support, compared to 64 per cent in January 2007, the poll found.
"The historic dominance of the PC party in Alberta is being threatened by a newly emerging three-way split in voter support between the PCs, the Liberals, who are holding onto their core voters, and the Wildrose Alliance, who are benefiting directly from the collapse in PC loyalty," said Bruce Cameron, the pollster behind Return On Insight.
Fifty-seven per cent — almost six in 10 Albertans — disapprove of Stelmach's performance. In comparison, Liberal Leader David Swann received a disapproval rating of 43 per cent.
Tories in freefall
"The party is in a virtual freefall in terms of public support and confidence," said Cameron, who said he is not a member of a provincial party.
"The difficult economic situation and the resulting budget deficits no doubt played a role in this decline, but much of the disenchantment rests with the perceived lack of leadership by Premier Ed Stelmach."
The Tories won 72 of 83 provincial seats in the March 2008 election, but the Wildrose Alliance captured Calgary-Glenmore — held by the Conservatives for 40 years — in a September byelection.
Paul Hinman, the Wildrose Alliance's only MLA, was sworn in on Wednesday.
Stelmach faces a mandatory party leadership review on Nov. 7, while the Wildrose Alliance chooses a new leader on Saturday.
The premier will be addressing Albertans about the recession in a televised speech on Wednesday evening, followed by a fundraising dinner for the party in Red Deer.

Unrest in Alberta Tory ranks!

Ever since Stelmach was elected instead of the choice of the urban and oil kingmakers there have been rumblings and grumblings particularly when Stelmach actually tried to get a bit more from the oil companies in royalties. Certainly his health policies have not been helpful to his cause but one wonders if his opponents are just using this as a means to build support for themselves. I always thought that the Wildrose Party was a right wing populist group but if ten Conservatives MLAs joined it could turn into an alternative Big Oil weapon against Stelmach! Hinman is certainly correct to be a bit worried about the gift of ten former Conservatives MLA's!

Unrest reported in Tory ranks
By KERRY DIOTTE, LEGISLATURE BUREAU CHIEF
Wildrose Alliance Party Leader Paul Hinman's not sure if it's catch-a-Tory time or whether they're chicken.
Hinman says he's taking a wait-and-see attitude toward reports up to 10 provincial Tory MLAs are set to cross the floor to his party if the Wild-rose Alliance picks Danielle Smith as leader Oct. 17 in Edmonton.
The would-be defections are predicted in Alberta Scan, an inside-Alberta-politics newsletter put out by veteran journalist Paul McLoughlin who is based at the legislature.
In his Sept. 25 newsletter, McLoughlin wrote: "Credible Conservative sources say if Smith, a former Calgary broadcaster, wins the leadership ... as many as 10 MLAs elected as Conservatives are contemplating departing government benches in the legislature to sit as Wildrose MLAs."
Hinman said he's heard there's great unrest among Tories with both the party's direction and with Premier Ed Stelmach, but he believes some MLAs may be threatening to cross the floor simply to get their way on some issues and policies.
"They're getting lambasted here in Calgary and elsewhere on health-care changes, and Bill 50 and many things ... Stelmach undermines one section of the province after another with his poor policies," said Hinman, who scored an upset victory in the Sept. 14 byelection in Calgary-Glenmore -- a riding that had been held by the Tory's deputy premier.
Hinman himself has heard several Tory MLAs are upset about health-care cuts, energy royalties, the $6.9-billion deficit and with a strong message they've been given about speaking out against either the leader or government policy.
But he figures the disgruntled Tories will likely wait to see what happens Nov. 7 when Stelmach faces a secret ballot vote on his party leadership at the PC convention.
Even if several Tories wanted to jump ship to the Wildrose Alliance they wouldn't automatically be accepted, said Hinman, who announced in April he was stepping down as leader of his party.
"It would depend who they are and what their principles are," he said. "If they're mad and just running away, no ... we want good people."
Premier's office spokesman Paul Stanway doesn't buy the defection theory.
"Somebody is dreaming in Technicolor," said Stanway. "I guess you could call it a 'wild' rumour."
Calgary chiropractor Mark Dyrholm is running against Smith for the party leadership.

80s era crisis feared in Alberta, U of C report warns.

I donèt usually defend Tory Premiers but in this case I will make an exception. I think part of Stelmachs problem is that he was never supposed to be leader in the first place according to the view of the party business elite. While the U of Calgary report makes some reasonable points and might even be persuasive in normal times, these times are far from normal.
If there ever were rainy days in Alberta it is now and thus an appropriate time to spend rainy day funds to keep social programs functioning and stimulate the economy. It is just a fact that with all its energy resources Alberta will for a long time depend on income from these resources. If the government had more sense and less commitment to free enterprise ideology it would develop those resources under public ownership as even rightwing regimes such as Saudi Arabia have done.
The U of Calgary report would have validity if energy prices were to continue low for some time in the future but as we are already at or at least near peak oil and demand is likely to increase as economies pull out of recession Stellmachès policy seems to involve an acceptable degree of risk.
This is from the Calgary Herald.


'80s-era crisis feared in Alberta, U of C report warns

Premier rejects warning

By Jason Fekete And Renata D'Aliesio, Calgary HeraldApril 3, 2009 7:08 AM




Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach addresses the Premier's Dinner hosted by the PC Association of Alberta at the Telus Centre Thursday.
Photograph by: Ted Rhodes, Calgary Herald
The Stelmach government is stuck in the same financial quicksand as the 1980s Getty era and is facing similar "dire consequences" of prolonged deficits and draconian spending cuts due to its over-reliance on energy revenues, warns a new University of Calgary study.
But as the Tory government prepares to table its first bud-get deficit in 15 years, Premier Ed Stelmach rejected the report's assertions. The government will strike the right balance of belt tightening, he said, while maintaining strong core programs such as health care and education.
The report released Thursday by theUofC's School of Public Policy, titled Will It Be Deja Vu All Over Again?, says the Tory government is on the edge of a financial precipice and must respond accordingly in Tuesday's budget or risk repeating past mistakes.
Former premier Don Getty's regime made two key errors in the mid-to late 1980s of relying too heavily on volatile oil and gas revenues to fund its budget, and then failing to cut spending accordingly when energy prices collapsed -- instead hoping markets would rebound in the short term.
The Stelmach government is headed down an identical path, cautions the report.
"We criticize (the government) for allowing its budget to become so heavily dependent on volatile, energy-related revenues--that is a high-risk strategy;it has been tried before and has failed, with dire consequences," the report states.
"It is a mistake the Alberta government must recognize and take steps to avoid as quickly as possible."
Commodity prices have crashed at the same time the province has increasingly tapped its resource royalty cash to fund spending, while the government has delivered "worrying signs" that it will do little and wait for high energy prices to return, it notes.
The province must quickly reduce its budget gap -- the difference between the amount it spends on programs and what it collects in revenue other than energy royalties and investment income, the report adds.
In fact, government estimates reveal the provincial budget gap (reliance on resource dollars) has returned to where it was before massive spending cuts were introduced during the"Klein Revolution" of the mid-1990s.
Stelmach called the study's assessment "nonsense."
"Look at our balance sheet," he told reporters in Calgary on Thursday after a PC party fundraising dinner.
"We're the only jurisdiction in North America that has cash in the bank--liquid. And had I listened to the very same economists, we would not have had that money in the bank," he added, noting the decline in the value of long-term savings in the Heritage Fund.
In his speech to party supporters, Stelmach blasted critics who accuse his government of blowing though its resource revenues.
"They claim we've let the advantages of another boom slip through our fingers," he added. "That's just not true. Like many Alberta families, we've saved for the future and planned for the unknown."
But depressed energy prices have gutted the province's revenues and sent Alberta back into red ink.
The government has already announced it will incur a deficit of around $1.4 billion for the fiscal year that just ended--a precipitous drop from the$8.5-billion surplus predicted last summer as oil soared to a record$ 147 US per barrel.But the province's revenue haul tumbled as fast as energy prices. Tuesday's budget is expected to project another deficit for the 2009-10 fiscal year.
The U of C report argues the province will have to consider spending cuts and tax increases if it's to wean itself off its addiction to royalty dollars-- a bold recommendation when governments around the world are hiking their expenditures to stimulate faltering economies.
If the province doesn't ad-dress the situation in Tuesday's budget and future blueprints, Alberta could be forced to eventually reintroduce 1990sstyle spending cuts.
In an interview, U of C economist and report co-author Ronald Kneebone said the Stelmach Tories need a new fiscal anchor similar to what former premier Ralph Klein did when he vowed to eliminate the deficit and debt.
Liberal Leader David Swann said Thursday the Conservative government has not lived within its means and has blown Albertans' oil riches.
"They've spent virtually all of our non-renewable re-source wealth. They've failed to lead the province toward a diverse and green energy economy."
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

U.S. environmental ads target Alberta oil sands development.

This is from CP.
I just wonder how effective these environmentalists will be given that the cost of gasoline is soaring in the U.S. Moves that threaten to make the supply even less will hardly be greeted with great applause by the masses who will pay more at the pumps. Stelmach needn't worry anyway. Any oil that does not go to the U.S. will be snapped up by other nations. China is not about to complain about dirty oil nor many other countries I expect. A boycott of dirty oil by the U.S. is a plus for Alberta since it can sell at higher prices to other countries no doubt.
Stelmach's defence is interesting. The U.S. should buy dirty Alberta oil because Canada has been a faithful junior partner in the wars of U.S. imperialism.
""Stelmach said he would try and convince the U.S. governors to stay onside with Alberta by reminding them how Canada has "protected the backs" of Americans in several wars. "

Ad mockingly invites U.S. governors to watch Alta. 'dirty oil' destroy forests
1 hour ago
EDMONTON — A Washington-based coalition of environmental groups is taking another tongue-in-cheek shot at the Alberta government with a newspaper ad targeting oilsands development.
The ad from the Natural Resources Defence Council features a faux postcard from Premier Ed Stelmach inviting western U.S. governors - who begin meetings Sunday with western premiers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. - to hold their next get-together near the tarsands.
"We can watch as pristine boreal forests and wetlands are destroyed to produce some of the dirtiest oil," reads the postcard, which sits atop two vacation-style snapshots of an open-pit mine and an oil plant spewing smoke.
"Sunsets over the giant toxic waste lagoons are spectacular - just hope the ducks don't land as they fly over looking for a place to nest!"
The ad is scheduled to run Monday in the Casper Star-Tribune, Wyoming's largest newspaper, and is timed to coincide with the meeting in Jackson Hole.
It's the latest attack on the environmental record of the Alberta oil industry, which made international news in April when 500 ducks died after landing in an oilsands tailings pond.
Earlier this week, Greenpeace put up a new satirical website offering mock tours of the province's industrial northeast, tempting travellers with black sand beaches, toxic lakes and clearcut forests.
It recommends starting the day with a "propane cannon wake-up call" and suggests a little open-pit paragliding over the vast oilsands mines.
Susan Casey-Lefkowitz of the Washington-based coalition said the two campaigns were developed separately but she was "thrilled" at their timing.
"We certainly talk to each other, but I wouldn't go so far as to say we're co-ordinated," she said in an interview from Washington. "I think what you're seeing is that a lot of groups on both sides of the border are very concerned about the tarsands."
Casey-Lefkowitz said in addition to the ad, the defence council has sent a more serious letter to the governors and premiers, explaining their concerns.
"The oilsands development is expanding at a rate that's too high for environmental protection to keep up," she explained. "What we're seeing is that the boreal forest eco-system is being destroyed and huge toxic tailings ponds are being created that are indeed proving a hazard to wildlife."
She said there have also been health concerns expressed by many in aboriginal communities near the development.
"What Alberta's leaders are not focusing enough on is that there is a real desire to have oil development done in a way that doesn't hurt the environment," she said.
"Alberta is so far behind right now in really getting a grip on cleaning up the tarsands. It's important for them right now to be focusing not on public relations, but focusing on actually cleaning up the situation."
Before leaving for the Wyoming conference, Stelmach admitted Alberta is "now in the cross-hairs" of various environmental groups and other agencies around North America that are denouncing the huge volume of greenhouse gas emissions from the province's massive oilsands plants.
And it isn't just environmental groups.
The U.S. government is currently drafting a law that could limit American agencies from using oilsands fuels because of the large volume of emissions created in their production.
Presidential hopeful Barack Obama is also talking about curbing imports of "dirty" oil from various sources, including Canada's oilsands.
America's big-city mayors also recently passed a resolution urging a ban on the use of fuel from the oilsands in municipal vehicles in the U.S.
Stelmach said he would try and convince the U.S. governors to stay onside with Alberta by reminding them how Canada has "protected the backs" of Americans in several wars.

Alberta budget comes down Tuesday

Given the deficit in expenditure upon infrastructure this might not be the best time to salt away savings. Expenditure on infrastructure has not kept pace with

development. Stelmach's plans seem to address this gap to some extent.




Alberta budget comes down Tuesday
Last Updated: Monday, April 21, 2008 4:47 PM MT
CBC News
Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach will unveil his government's second budget in the legislature Tuesday amid speculation that spending is likely to increase above last year's record $33 billion.
During the campaign for the March 3 election, Stelmach promised billions for new schools, health-care facilities and roads.
"Its a big job actually, but I'm looking forward to it," said Finance Minister Iris Evans, as she prepared to present the province's spending plans. It will be her first budget since being appointed to the finance position in March.
Many observers will be watching to see whether the government has a plan for saving more of its energy wealth for the future, when non-renewable resources could run out.
The Alberta Chambers of Commerce has called on the province to salt away between 30 and 40 per cent of those revenues, about $3 billion to $4 billion a year.
The Alberta Heritage Trust Fund, started in 1976 by former Premier Peter Lougheed, has not grown substantially in the past 20 years. Its value stands at about $16 billion dollars.
Government commissioned report on savings plan
The government recently commissioned a study on a possible new saving plan, headed by Jack Mintz, the chair of the School of Policy Studies at the University of Calgary.
The government is not ready to release that report yet, said Evans.
"I expect to release it in the future, but I'm not saying just quite when. I've met with Mr. Mintz and it's going to be forthcoming but not for a while."
Mintz said he hopes to see some sign of a new government savings plan in the budget.
"They said that they wanted to have a new approach to savings which is really what this report is all about. So I would hope that the budget also reminds Albertans that the government is committed to looking at a new approach," Mitz said.
The provincial budget will be released at 3 p.m. in the legislature.

With new mandate, Alta. Tories need to tackle royalties immediately.

This is from moneyaol. Interesting that even though the business community wanted any one but Stelmach as leader of the Conservatives Munro still claims that it would have been a disaster for business if the Conservatives had not one.
No doubt the business community, particularly in Calgary, are quite anxious to show Stelmach what he has to do! It would have been nicer if they had an insider but then sometimes democracy does not work the way it should.

With new mandate, Alta. Tories need to tackle royalties immediately: analystSource: The Canadian Press
Posted: 03/23/08 7:22PM
CALGARY - While Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach may want to spend some time revelling in his party's landslide election victory, he needs to get to work straight away on resolving issues around the province's booming oil and gas sector, says an industry industry analyst with the Ernst and Young consulting firm.

"At their peril the Progressive Conservatives would take the election results as a ringing endorsement of their policies," Barry Munro said in an interview Tuesday.

The Tories, who swept 72 of 83 seats in Monday's provincial election, need to immediately clarify some of the details of the new oil and gas royalty framework as well as restore their relationship with Calgary's business community, the consultant said.

"Business excels at taking risks and making educated decisions," Munro said.

"But we created an environment in Alberta where we created a high level of uncertainty because we've announced a bunch of policy changes but we haven't gotten very far along on implementation."

The royalty scheme, which will increase the provincial government's take by $1.4 billion a year beginning in 2009, was greeted with scorn from many companies in Alberta's petroleum industry when the revenue hike was unveiled in October.

Stelmach has since signalled that his government would work with producers about easing some of the policy's unintended consequences, especially when it comes to deep gas drilling and high-productivity oil.

"There continues to be this very, very impassioned call on the government to just simply fix some things that were just badly flawed within the logic of the royalty recommendations," Munro said.

"He's got to get on with that and he's got to get on with that right now because business planning cycles require certainty or else people just quit spending. When faced with an uncertain framework people just allocate capital elsewhere."

The new royalty plan also called for the government to re-negotiate its existing contracts with the two largest and oldest oilsands producers, Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) and Syncrude Canada, the world's biggest oilsands project.

Last month, the government cut a deal with Suncor, raising royalties. But talks with Syncrude's owners are still in limbo months later. Analysts speculate the delays could reflect that Sybcrude has many owners, including Canadian Oil Sands Trust (TSX:COS), Imperial Oil Ltd. (TSX:IMO), Nexen (TSX:NXY) and Petro-Canada (TSX:PCA)

The Stelmach government needs to gain a better understanding of how the oil and gas industry works, Munro said.

"There's that perception that there's a lack of understanding - whether it's well founded or not - immediately flowing out of that is this lack of confidence," he said.

"The only way to fix that is to re-engage the business community and have them feel and be part of the solution or you'll never make forward progress."

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers plans to talk with the government about the effects of the royalty regime and how a new land-use framework will affect oilsands development, group president Pierre Alvarez said in an interview

"With so many new MLAs and such a strong majority I think we'll wait until the premier has met with his caucus and at the appropriate time we'll sit down with them and get moving forward," Alvarez said.

"We look forward to getting back to work now that the election is behind us."

The Alberta business community also needs more answers on how the government intends to deal with the environmental concerns that come with the province's ever-expanding oilsands sector, Munro said.

That includes taking some concrete steps to advance carbon capture and storage projects. Stelmach has been a proponent of that technology, which could allow the huge amounts of carbon dioxide emitted by the oil and gas industry to be stored underground. But there need to be financial incentives to get those initiatives off the ground, Munro said.

The industry is also worried about the "infrastructure deficit" that has come with Alberta's breakneck economic growth in recent years, he added. Stelmach has made a great deal of big spending announcements in the weeks leading up to the election, but "people are really anxious for that to get on the way," Munro said.

"The business community has a very, very strong desire for them to actually get some of this stuff buttoned down."

Despite all the uncertainty, many businesses are likely relieved that they will be dealing with the government they have known for nearly four decades, Munro said.

"Frankly it would have been, for the business community, an absolute unmitigated disaster if anybody but the PCs had gotten in around the current state of the royalty framework."

The Stelmach Stun Gun

Stelmach stunned those Calgary media and Oil Patch Dinning supporters. The Calgary kingmakers have lost power to rural Alberta and it would seem difficult for them to usurp power from Stelmach or dethrone him anytime soon. They will just have to learn how to work with him. Rather than lose seats or even a majority Stelmach added 12 and left only 9 for the Libs and 2 for the hapless NDP.
This is from the Ottawa Citizen.
My predictions were as I thought too low on the Conservatives even though I predicted more than anyone who wrote in to Calgary Grit! I guess I read too many articles suggesting how browned off Albertans were and thought this might change the outcome even though the polls showed a quite different story. The media sure knows how to cherry pick polls sometimes.

Edmonton Sun backs Stelmach

The Edmonton Sun comes out in support of Stelmach but without great passion it seems! The author actually puts in a plug for the NDP!
The Calgary Herald still seems to hold out some hopes for Liberals at least in Calgary.

" Liberals are hoping to wedge through widening cracks in several Calgary ridings, a once nearly impenetrable Tory fortress, while the New Democrats, Wildrose Alliance and Greens are also vying to break through in the city's 23 seats.

"Calgary is where one senses change," said political analyst Bruce Foster, chair of policy studies at Mount Royal College."

This is from the Edmonton Sun.

March 2, 2008

Steady Eddie the best choice

By NEIL WAUGH



If elections were all about issues then the candidate with the biggest wheelbarrow of documents would win.

And if the barrage of policies and promises coming out of Liberal Leader Kevin Taft's war room were measuring sticks, then the Alberta Liberals would take Election 2008 in a runaway.

But if Albertans' past election records are anything to go by, they look beyond the pitches and stump speeches for an intangible ingredient in their politics. That's a difficult-to-define concept best summed up in one word: Leadership.

While the Canadian parliamentary system is the sum of many parts, the person who occupies the premier's office must be someone who Albertans admire, respect and believe in to do the right thing when the chips are down and Albertans' backs are against the wall.

In recent memory, we've been blessed with several such leaders.

Both former premiers Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed earned their stripes as leaders. And the late Laurence Decore and Grant Notley, while neither formed a government, continued this strong Alberta legacy of leadership.

It's clear that many Albertans were searching for leadership throughout the campaign, reflected in the large "undecided" bloc in the polls.

Early on, the blunder-struck campaign of PC Leader Ed Stelmach muddled the political landscape. But when the other three provincial party leaders were given the chance, they failed to seize it.

The turning point for us was the TV debate where Stelmach clearly showed the cool, calm leadership qualities Albertans have come to expect of a premier. The other party leaders' credibility deteriorated as the squabbling, name-calling grew.

After that, the PC campaign gained momentum by placing Ed out front. With Tory policies and spending announcements already laid out, Stelmach's leadership qualities shone through.

And it became clear to us at the Edmonton Sun that Stelmach and his Progressive Conservative candidates are the best choices to govern the province.

But that shouldn't mean we're giving Steady Eddie a blank cheque.

The last few years of PC rule exposed a lot of backsliders and goof-offs in his cabinet and backbenches.

We expect and demand that Stelmach use the same leadership skills he displayed on the campaign trail by whipping his new government into shape pronto. And we'll be the first to criticize him if he doesn't.

Albertans also need strong opponents to the PCs in the legislature to keep Team Stelmach on its toes.

During the campaign, Brian Mason's New Democrats have shown they have the policies and philosophy to provide effective and consistent opposition.

That said, the rest is up to you - the voters.

A Tory Landslide in Alberta?

Most of the media seems to be giving up on trying to stop the Stelmach victory. Of course it would never be called a tide or wave. Stelmach is not Obama! Even so, at least one predictress sees even more seats for the Conservatives:

"I feel like I'm really sticking my neck out, but I think they're going to gain seats," said Ms. Brown, projecting the next legislature will house 70 to 72 Tories.

The quote is from an article in the Globe and Mail reproduced below. An article in the National Post seems to grasp at straws noting that there are still a lot of undedcided and there may be a poor turnout that will hurt the Tories. Shouldn't the media be urging everyone to get out and vote! Hmm.. Maybe they don't like Stelmach!

VOTING DAY

Alberta sleepwalks through campaign
DAWN WALTON

March 3, 2008

CALGARY -- Few reporters tagged along during Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach's last dash through Calgary, the only place likely to dampen his party's easy claim to an 11th consecutive majority when Albertans go to the polls today.

Staffers were shocked Saturday when not a single television camera showed up for the leader's first public meeting with Tory hopeful and former "Scud Stud" Arthur Kent, who had lashed out at Mr. Stelmach for "talking down" to candidates, one of the few criticisms that roused voters who have otherwise been sleepwalking through the 28-day campaign.

Instead of complaining about being stood up at a campaign event, Mr. Kent gushed about Mr. Stelmach's visit to his riding - one of the few places where a Tory faces an uphill battle - and how the party has changed.

Alberta is oil-rich and debt-free, yet voters are uneasy with the pace of growth and are agitating for change. But when they cast their votes, Albertans are widely expected to also put aside their grievances and extend the Tory Party's 37-year hold on government on the belief that the party itself has changed.

Mr. Stelmach might well approach former premier Ralph Klein's "Ralph's World" feat of 2001, when the Tories captured 74 of the legislature's 83 seats, according to Janet Brown, a public opinion research consultant who has designed a seat-projection model that predicts election outcomes with uncanny accuracy.

When the legislature was dissolved last month, the Tories had 60 seats, the Liberals 16, the New Democrats four, and the Wildrose Alliance one. There was one Independent and one vacant seat.

During the 2004 election when frustration was simmering about Mr. Klein's leadership, Ms. Brown predicted every seat correctly except one - the contentious Edmonton riding where the Tory ultimately beat the Liberal by three votes.

"I feel like I'm really sticking my neck out, but I think they're going to gain seats," said Ms. Brown, projecting the next legislature will house 70 to 72 Tories.

Despite a climate of change, no big issues have emerged, the opposition parties have had little traction and a large number of voters - up to a quarter, according to some polls - are undecided.

Business has been brisk at some advance polls, but many observers are expecting a low turnout, perhaps even lower than the 2004 election when the so-called Kleinfeld campaign largely about nothing attracted a historic low of 44.7 per cent of eligible voters.

The electorate here tends to show displeasure by not voting rather than by voting against the governing party, which has some Tories worried that support could slip to the 50-seat range.

But Mr. Stelmach's main competition, Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, who has run a well-intentioned, but unremarkable campaign, is burdened by competing in a province where bashing Liberals is practically a sport.

"To stand up anywhere and say you're not a Conservative is taboo," said 57-year-old Susan Young, who lives in the central Alberta community of Lacombe. "I don't understand Albertans. Why is it that people can only vote one tiny part of the political spectrum?"

Stelmach out of tune with Albertans?

Another article critical of Stelmach. Add these all together and many Albertan conservatives will be sure Stelmach is the right man. It all stinks of Cowtown trying to get revenge for Stelmach stealing the leadership from the rightful Calgary business crowd. Notice that although recent polls show that the PCs could even increase their seat take overall only negative aspects of polls appear in this article. The author is most selective. There is no mention that even in Calgary Conservative support is 44 percent!

Stelmach out of tune with Albertans

Mar 02, 2008 04:30 AM
Gillian Steward


Conservative premiers in Alberta usually cruise through election campaigns. For Ralph Klein, they were nothing more than a big bore. Peter Lougheed once won 74 of 79 seats. The current premier, Ed Stelmach, is definitely not cruising; he's had a rough ride.

Almost every day of the campaign – tomorrow is election day – he has been ambushed by embarrassing revelations that have shot holes in his government's key economic strategy: extracting and selling the oil in the tar sands of northern Alberta.

Stelmach made it clear when he was elected leader of the party 14 months ago that he would not put the brakes on the frenzied pace of development, not even slow it down a little bit, even though it has thrust the province's economy into overdrive.

Municipalities simply can't keep up with the roads, schools, hospitals and housing that are needed to accommodate the surging number of workers. Even Lougheed has publicly stated that it would be better to stagger the tar sands projects rather than let them all go ahead at once because that drives up costs for everyone.

Still, Stelmach kept insisting his government would stand aside as the energy giants carved up the landscape and shipped the oil south. He would point to the billions of dollars flowing into the province as proof that his strategy was working.

But last month, it was revealed that some energy companies – including Petro-Canada, Imperial Oil, Husky Energy and Suncor – would also like a more staggered approach.

In a letter sent to the government before the election was called, the companies, along with aboriginal groups and environmentalists, called for a moratorium on new projects to protect land and waterways. And while other major tar- sands players such as Encana and CNRL did not sign the letter, it is the first time that any petroleum companies have publicly expressed serious reservations about the pace of development and its effect on the environment.

As if that wasn't bad enough, a few days later, the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think-tank, revealed the results of a survey of candidates from all the political parties. Almost half of the Conservative candidates who took part said no new tar-sands projects should be approved until environmental and infrastructure issues are resolved, while 75 per cent of the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens wanted a slowdown.

The next day, a Leger poll revealed that the dissenting Conservatives and the opposition are more attuned to what most Albertans want than the premier. Nearly two-thirds of Albertans said the government should do more to limit the overall amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by tar-sands projects, even if it means some projects would be delayed or cancelled.

Stelmach's response has been vague. He has said only that the government would make a decision on environmental questions after the election.

None of this did much for the premier's image. He's already seen as weak and indecisive. Expectations of his performance are so low that some commentators praised him for simply making it through the televised leaders' debate.

Stelmach also looks as though he's simply not willing, or able, to stand up to the big boys in the oil patch. His Conservatives might still be re-elected, but even if they are, Stelmach is going to have to dig deep if he wants to set things straight with Albertans.


Gillian Steward is a Calgary writer and journalist, and former managing editor of the Calgary Herald.

So Who is Correct about the Alberta Election?

Here are two contrasting articles about the Alberta election. The first is from the Globe and Mail. This article sees a Conservative victory as a sure thing and even suggests that the Conservatives could gain seats. It is noted that Stelmach ran an "awful campaign". However the media always claimed that he would and that he couldn't debate so if Stelmach pulled off a D plus campaign he probably exceeded public expectations!

Alberta Tories on cusp of 11th majority
KATHERINE O'NEILL

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

February 29, 2008 at 11:52 PM EST

EDMONTON — The Alberta Progressive Conservatives are poised to win handily their 11th straight majority Monday despite a large number of voters who say the province is due for a new government, according to a new poll.

“There is some desire for change, some restlessness and angst, but the fact is that none of the opposition parties have been able to make the case that change is really required,” said Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV.

The poll found that 50 per cent of Albertans surveyed intend to support the Progressive Conservatives – which is higher than the results of the 2004 provincial election, when the party polled 48 per cent.

However, the level of support has dropped eight points from 58 per cent in early January when The Strategic Counsel conducted a similar poll.

The survey of 750 Albertans was taken Feb. 27-28 and is accurate to within 3.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

It found the Alberta Liberals nabbed 25 per cent of voter support, while the Wildrose Alliance, a right-wing party that has only been around since January, came in third with 10 per cent.

The NDP and the Alberta Green party both polled at 8 per cent.

The Tories' support is weakest in Calgary (44 per cent) and strongest in rural Alberta (58 per cent).

Before the election was called, the Tories, which have governed the oil-rich, debt-free province since 1971, held 60 of the 83 seats in the legislature.

Mr. Woolstencroft said while the survey found 48 per cent of voters said it's “time for a change” and a new government, many voters don't want to “rock the boat” because economic times in Alberta are quite good.

He said Calgary will be the key battleground on March 3. However, he expects vote splits in many ridings could help the political dynasty, which has an election war chest rumoured to be $4-million.

When the election was called on Feb. 4, observers were expecting an electric campaign, especially in Edmonton and Calgary. However, it's been decidedly lacklustre, with few issues emerging. Around the province, there's little talk about the campaign, with some people not even aware there's one under way.

Other opinion polls published during the campaign have shown a large segment of undecided voters, but Mr. Woolstencroft said his research found no evidence of this.

This will be the first election test for Ed Stelmach since he became Tory Leader in December, 2006. He replaced Ralph Klein, who retired from politics after being premier for almost 14 years.

Mr. Woolstencroft said Mr. Stelmach, a soft-spoken 56-year-old ex-farmer from northern Alberta, has turned out to be a good choice for the political dynasty because he's bolstered the party's support in Edmonton and is expected to keep the Wildrose Alliance at bay in rural Alberta.

Keith Brownsey, a political scientist at Calgary's Mount Royal College, said Liberal Leader Kevin Taft's leadership will be in serious doubt if his party doesn't pick up more seats. At dissolution, the party had 16 seats. He said the debt-ridden Liberals, which haven't governed the province since 1921, have a small election war chest and have been struggling to get their message out.

Mr. Brownsey said The Strategic Counsel poll suggests the Tories could gain as many as 10 seats on March 3.

“With the level of discontent that is reflected in this poll and to have these kind of voting intentions, well, I don't understand it,” he said. “Mr. Stelmach ran an awful campaign, but it doesn't seem to matter.”

The second article from the National Post is rather surprising and really has none of the statistical basis of the first. Probably it is from a survey of oil company insiders at a bar. It is by Don Martin and starts out with the hilarious headline:

Panic creeps into Alberta Tory ranks as election nears
Don Martin, Canwest News Service

Perhaps they are the kingmakers who lost out to Stelmach and the panic is that he is going to show them how well he can do. Here is a snippet from the article:

"But the confided consensus of MPs was that Premier Ed Stelmach is about to lose a bunch of seats in Monday's provincial election and, if the large undecided vote shifts to the opposition or stays home, perhaps lurch into the nightmare scenario of becoming Alberta's first-ever minority government.

Panic has crept into Conservative ranks, but the fret is most intensely felt in Calgary where the party's 37-year reign is facing its most dangerous electoral test in, well, 37 years."

There may be some loss in Calgary but there also may be gains in Edmonton apparently. In a couple of days we will know. Note that even in Calgary the Conservatives have 44 per cent support that is really not all that weak. If the Liberals had that nationally we would be having a Spring election.

Stelmach: Environment trumps economy.

This is from the Globe and Mail.
This is a rather astonishing headline until it becomes clear from the article that Stelmach's actions show the opposite. No doubt he is trying to appeal to environmentalists who oppose him. Stelmach refuses to say whether he has changed his mind on letting market forces determine Oilsands development.
Taft accuses Stelmach of not having a plan. This is a bit strange after Stelmach in the same article outlines his plan such as it is: reduction of emissions by 14 percent from 2005 levels by 2050. Surely Taft should have criticised that rather than complain that Stelmach had none.


Environment trumps economy, Stelmach says
Alberta Tory leader trumpets emissions targets but falls short of calling for controls on oil-and-gas developments
DAWN WALTON AND KATHERINE O'NEILL
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
February 26, 2008 at 5:24 AM EST
CALGARY, EDMONTON — Alberta Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach has been steadfast about not putting the brakes on oil sands development, but in a surprising about-face in the midst of a provincial election campaign, he suggested yesterday that environmental policy may trump economics.
"Environment takes precedence over the economy," Mr. Stelmach told reporters in Calgary, responding to questions about future expansion in the oil sands north of Fort McMurray.
Still, he warned that government should not step in to "control the economy" and rustled up the image of the still-not-forgotten national energy program implemented by Pierre Trudeau's federal Liberal government in 1980, which drove up interest rates and drove out investment.
"We're not going back to those dark days," said Mr. Stelmach, reiterating his party's environmental plan to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 14 per cent from 2005 levels by 2050. "Our plan is achievable. It's realistic. It's fiscally responsible."
With voting day set for next Monday, Mr. Stelmach is facing an emboldened opposition and polls predicting a slimmed-down majority for the Tories. His pro-industry stand on environmental protection is widely viewed as his Achilles heel.
His latest comments came in response to a report that some of Canada's biggest oil producers want to see a partial moratorium placed on oil sands development in an apparent effort to preserve conservation land, as first reported in The Globe and Mail.
Husky Energy Ltd., Petro-Canada Corp. and Suncor Inc. were among the big players in the oil patch who signed a letter submitted to the provincial government last month that asked Alberta to halt land lease sales until 2011 in three areas - one of which, Mr. Stelmach pointed out, doesn't even have oil sands underneath it.
Slowing development would also ease pressure on energy companies struggling through a labour shortage and protect their interests from new competition.
The oil and gas industry did not unanimously sign the letter, which was presented on behalf of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association, whose members include representatives from government, the energy sector and native bands.
Yesterday, Mr. Stelmach said the province is still waiting for environmental reports on air, water and soil quality before making a decision about how to proceed with leases. He also said he is waiting on a final vote among the association's 46 members slated for June.
But that vote applies to an overall land-management framework for the region. The moratorium on leases as proposed by the oil companies could be addressed at any time, a source said, but the government risks losing income from land leases.
"We've yet to receive a response from the Alberta government," association spokesman Corey Hobbs said yesterday. "We eagerly anticipate it."
Greenpeace said yesterday a partial moratorium doesn't go far enough and called for no new approvals in "one of the dirtiest and largest industrial projects on the planet."
At the same time, the treaty chiefs in the Athabasca region have passed a unanimous resolution that calls for no new oil sands approvals until they have accepted watershed and resource management plans.
Since the day Mr. Stelmach held his first news conference in 2006, after being named Leader of the governing Tories, he has said he had no plans to slow down oil sands growth, preferring to let the market decide the pace of development.
Yesterday, he wouldn't directly answer questions about whether he has changed that view and instead criticized the opposition parties for wanting to impose "Kyoto-style emissions controls" on the energy sector and increase the province's share of royalties, which could scare away investment. Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft said Mr. Stelmach is "out of touch" on the issue.
"The right thing to do is say that Alberta needs a plan," he told reporters in Edmonton.
It's ridiculous, he added, that Mr. Stelmach keeps invoking the memory of a former prime minister on the campaign trail.
"Pierre Trudeau was elected 40 years ago - Ed, get over it," Mr. Taft said.

Corporations refusing to donate to Stelmach?

Given that the party has 4 million in the kitty and intends to spend just 2 million on the campaign perhaps the party isn't too worried! The opposition parties have only a small fraction of two million to spend as the article shows.

Imagine the grumpiness of the corporate kingmakers when Ed Stelmach has that 4 million to spend instead of the oilmaker's likely choice, Jim Dinning.



Alta Tory insider says corporate Calgary refusing donations to Stelmach campaign
2 days ago
CALGARY - Grumpiness over a planned $1.4-billion increase in energy royalties appears to be costing Alberta's Progressive Conservatives their usual windfall of corporate donations as the party campaigns for the March 3 election.
"It's very difficult to raise dough in Calgary these days," a member of the Tories' powerful finance committee told The Canadian Press on Friday.
"The oil and gas industry feels betrayed from this government, and that's reflected in the amount of money we can't raise."
"About 70 per cent of our money we traditionally raise out of Calgary, so when you see a big drop in the Calgary fundraising, it hurts."
Premier Ed Stelmach announced the royalty increase last fall after a review by a government-appointed committee. The new formula is to take effect next January and the government expects to reach the $1.4-billion figure by 2010 - a 20 per cent increase over currently projected revenues for that year.
Royalty reform is not the only irritant. Some Calgary Tories have been grumbling ever since Stelmach won the party leadership over Jim Dinning, a corporate executive from Calgary, in December 2006.
Last summer, the Tories lost a byelection in what should have been the safest of seats, Calgary Elbow, which was held for years by former leader Ralph Klein.
Tory campaign spokesman Paul Stanway described any fundraising problems in Calgary as "ancient history," but wouldn't provide details.
"In fact, there's been an uptick in that sort of support from Calgary," he said. "But what we're raising is none of (your) business at this point."
The chairman of the finance committee in Calgary was not available for comment. A call Friday to the party's executive director was not returned.
The Conservative war chest was close to $4 million when the election was called. The bankroll dwarfs the finances of political rivals, but the finance committee member said the party will spend roughly half of the money on this year's campaign.
"This election is going to cost us approximately $2 million," he said. "But normally we like to have enough money around to run two elections."
The New Democrats, who refuse to take corporate donations, will spend $750,000 on the campaign. The Alberta Liberals haven't released their campaign budget, but still have more than $400,000 in debt from the 2001 election.
Stanway refused to confirm how much the Tories are spending. He did say it's more than usual so as to counter union-sponsored TV attack ads aimed at Stelmach's leadership.
"I'm not going to put a number on it, but I will tell you that this is certainly a much more ambitious campaign than the party has done in recent years," said Stanway, who is also the premier's communications director.
The Tories held 60 of 83 seats when the election was called and have enjoyed 10 straight majorities dating back three dozen years. The party constitution requires a leadership review within a year or two following an election, so Stelmach will have to win another strong majority to secure his future, said the source.
"I think the magic number for Ed is 50 (seats). I think anything 50 or under and he's in trouble."
The insider also said he started getting a sense earlier this week that undecided votes were starting to slip away from Stelmach's Conservatives.
"The polls aren't indicating it yet, but we're in trouble in Calgary," he said. "People started landing on the decided side and it wasn't with the Tories."
A member of Klein's inner circle also told The Canadian Press that fundraising problems were becoming apparent in corporate Calgary.
"This is serious stuff," said the one-time Klein staffer. "The finance committee is more powerful than people think. If they can't raise money, they can have a great influence on the leader's future."
The finance committee member recalls how the 30-member committee forced Don Getty to step aside as premier when the Tories experienced a similar fundraising drought in 1992.
"This is the committee that told Getty, 'The time has come. We can't raise money out of Calgary under your leadership,"' he said. "So, yeah, they're a very influential group."

No punches sent Stelmach's way.

This is from the Edmonton Sun. As the article points out, the other parties ganged up on Stelmach. No punches or not many landed apparently.
From media reports I have read Stelmach is supposed to be a bumbling debater but if this report is at all accurate he must have improved. The Liberal opposition leader does not come out looking too well in this account. No doubt Alberta bloggers who heard the debate may have different ideas.

February 22, 2008
No punches sent Stelmach's way
Leaders debate no slugfest
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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If this was a standard house- brand Alberta election TV debate, there's no doubt that PC Leader Ed Stelmach won the contest last night big-time.
Mainly, the gang-up didn't work, the four other provincial leaders - including Wildrose Alliance's Paul Hinman who used the provincewide TV hook-up to "introduce" himself to Albertans - didn't lay a glove on Steady Eddie, just as his predecessor Ralph Klein was able to dodge and weave through earlier debates.
NO ORDINARY GABFEST
But this wasn't an ordinary made-for-TV gabfest where the premier could snooze through the proceedings.
Simply reciting his accomplishments into the record since winning the PC leadership 14 months ago may not have been enough to convince a large number of unconvinced Albertans that he - or any of the others - is the best man for the job.
Which is the subplot of the whole election campaign, where 69% of Albertans responding to the Ipsos Reid midway poll said they would be simply "making the best choice from the options available."
In other words: None of the above.
And after an hour and a half of airtime on three networks, I suspect that the same "whatever" factor still hangs over the election.
The pols aren't all to blame here. The panel of "journalists" was strictly amateur hour.
Rarely did they wander beyond the predictable health care-infrastructure-environment issues where the fearless foursome could regurgitate their pat campaign stump answers.
But clearly Albertans wanted more than that. They needed one of the four stuffed suits to stick out, take control of the debate and answer the burning question of the 2008 campaign: Who are these guys?
That question never got answered.
Instead, it was NDP Leader Brian Mason's pitch about "being on the side of ordinary families," mainly because the PC and Liberals are "so closely tied" to corporations because they take donations from them.
Hinman's claim to being the "true conservative alternative" is based largely on his pitch to roll back Stelmach's royalty reforms.
The premier stuck to his "practical, achievable, fiscally responsible plan," while Taft continued his belief that "holding the government accountable" was the central theme of the election.
He also explored his theory that the government is secretly awash in cash and the Liberals have a magic spending button that will unlock it.
STELMACH SCORES
Sure, there were a few moments. Stelmach scored big when he talked of his "decisive leadership" when challenging growth, "not some warmed- over '70s socialist policy."
Strangely, he never raised the ghost of the "Trudeau Liberals" like he has been doing recently in his stump speeches.
Mason pinned Taft good during a set-to over climate change where the Liberal leader claimed emission caps are a "big issue in the campaign" and Alberta is going to get "moved down."
The NDP leader jumped in and reminded Taft that his Liberal MLAs argued against slapping hard caps on Alberta industry during a debate in the legislature, at which point Taft appeared to come unglued.
Taft also used the word "crisis" a couple of times too many during the debate, as though Alberta had turned into a mini Haiti.
At one time during the health-care portion, he actually blurted "people are dying, Mr. Stelmach."
Which was once again way over the top.
But probably the biggest stretch of all was a 50-something fellow with a talk-down-to-you-voice claiming he was the messenger of change.
The best Stelmach could show was that he wasn't the blundering bumpkin that his incompetent campaign team has turned him into.
And that he has a pretty good grasp of the subject of government.
Stelmach also got a good one-off when he stung Mason with "Brian, I know it's very easy to predict the past."
Then he reminded the others that 600,000 new Albertans have arrived here "because there is hope and there are jobs."
And that's about as good as it got.
//

Poll: Stelmach heading for strong win

There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement about how much in danger the Conservatives are in Alberta. The main article is from the Edmonton Sun.
The Saskatoon Star Phoenix is a bit more pessimistic concerning Stelmach's chances.
""Some party insiders are bracing for a wipeout of Conservatives in the capital, a drop of four seats in Calgary and more losses around urban fringes. If a few unexpected seats add to the collapse, the longshot spectre of Alberta's first-ever minority government hangs over the campaign.
The perception problem is that former farmer Stelmach is seen as a poor fit with an increasingly cosmopolitan province hit by an urban population surge of ethnic and political diversity.
His recent speeches to Calgary and Edmonton business leaders were flat and poorly received. And if a pledge to eliminate health insurance premiums within four years is the best dare he could dream up for an election-triggering throne speech, well, it's open opposition season on charges the Stelmach government lacks a vision to cope with the economic explosion."

Yet the polls show that Stelmach is leading by a good margin in Calgary and doing well in Edmonton as well. The National Post post also is gloomy about Stelmach's performance in urban areas:
" But Conservative seat projections solicited from civic, provincial and federal observers, who have far closer contact to the ground than me, vary between a low of 40 seats and, at most, 55 seats.
For a government with 60 of the 83 seats now, that's not the sort of bubbling optimism that's supposed to springboard a government into a fresh bid for a new and stronger mandate.
Some party insiders are bracing for a wipeout of Conservatives in the capital, a drop of four seats in Calgary and more losses around urban fringes. If a few unexpected seats add to the collapse, the long-shot spectre of Alberta's first-ever minority government hangs over the campaign."

Perhaps all this shows is that Stelmach was not the choice of the urban Conservative elites but that the Conservative grass roots don't give two hoots about that! The Conservative popular vote is considerably above even that of the last election and they are doing well in the main cities! It is true of course that things can change during the campaign. However if the media starts a campaign to suggest that Stelmach is losing ground that may just cause a counter reaction that could help Stelmach do much better than he might otherwise.

February 9, 2008
Stelmach heading for strong win: poll
By BILL KAUFMANN, SUN MEDIA
CALGARY -- Alberta's governing Tories are on track to another strong majority, suggests a recent poll.
The Environics survey of 1,000 people conducted just before the electoral writ was dropped shows the Conservatives with 52% of the decided vote, compared to the Liberals' 25% and 10% for the NDP.
The Green Party follows at 7% with the newly formed Wildrose Alliance managing 6%, and a further 19% are undecided.
While Conservative support in Calgary is strong, at 48% versus the Grits' 29%, it's in Edmonton where the Tories have seen significant gains - going from 34% in the 2004 vote to 49% today.
The PCs' Calgary campaign chief, Bill Smith, said he's noticed a swing in the city back towards his party in recent weeks.
"People are getting more comfortable with Ed Stelmach, they're more willing to give him an opportunity," said Smith.
Liberal leader Kevin Taft wouldn't comment on the survey, saying "there's only one poll that counts and it's on March 3."
Grit spokesman Larry Johnsrude said the poll results are no surprise given the flurry of ad spending by the Tories in the days leading up to the campaign. "Obviously, that's going to skew things," he said.
Because the poll was done before the campaign was underway, the results shouldn't be taken too seriously, said University of Calgary political scientist Doreen Barrie.
"I don't know if any of this will hold - after the leaders' debate the numbers could change because Ed Stelmach is not very good on his feet and Kevin Taft is a real policy wonk," she said, adding a major blunder could upend the figures.
"The Tories shouldn't rest on their laurels."
Even so, it's clear years of opposition attempts to gain traction with the public haven't succeeded, said Barrie, while a cooling but still strong economy is playing in the Tories' favour.
In 2004, the Tories captured 62 of 83 seats with 46.8% of the popular vote, compared to 29% for the Liberals.
The poll's high undecided vote means much in the election remains up in the air, said NDP leader Brian Mason.
"The campaign will make a difference and the Tory popular vote in the election is always lower than these polls," said Mason.
Tory supporters are the ones most loyal to their party and least likely to switch their votes, states the poll.
It's accurate within 3.1% points 95 times out of 100.

Alberta Election on March 3

This is from CBC. This hardly comes as a surprise. Even though Stelmach is not all that popular and the Conservatives have been in power for decades at worst it would seem that the Conservatives may lose some urban seats. Already, with his announcement that he will do away with health care premiums over four years Stelmach has undercut part of the Liberal program.


Alberta election called for March 3
Last Updated: Monday, February 4, 2008 4:12 PM MT
CBC News
Albertans will go to the polls on March 3, Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach confirmed Monday.
Stelmach made the announcement in the legislature to the applause of his fellow Conservatives less than an hour after Lt.-Gov. Norman Kwong delivered the speech from the throne to open a new session of the legislature.
Ed Stelmach rose in the legislature Monday to announce a provincial election for March 3.
What was supposed to be an outline for the Conservative government's plans for the coming session quickly turned into the the Tory election platform.
In the speech, the government promised to eliminate health-care premiums over four years, increase the number of health-care workers in the province and allocate significant new funding for crime reduction.
NDP Leader Brian Mason launched his party's campaign late Monday morning promising to be the party that speaks for "regular families."
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft announced his election platform Thursday night saying Albertans are tired of 36 years of Conservative rule. The Liberals are also promising an end to health-care premiums, and promise to lower electricity rates.


Tory leader must win over urban voters
This will be the first major election test for Stelmach, the 56-year-old rural politician who still operates a small grain farm near Lamont, 80 kilometres northeast of Edmonton.
Known by many as "Steady Eddie," he staged a "come from behind" victory to replace former premier Ralph Klein as party leader in December, mainly because of his support from rural Conservatives.
But his rural power base got him into trouble last June when the party suffered an embarrassing loss in a Calgary by-election. The Liberals won Calgary-Elbow, taking Klein's long-time seat. Many Calgarians accused Stelmach of not paying enough attention to the problems there.
Government spending preceded election call
Stelmach has spent the last few months rolling out a series of plans on everything from affordable housing to dealing with a backlog of schools, hospitals and other construction projects.
His mantra — "Alberta has a plan" — is seen as a move to distance himself from Klein, who admitted in September 2006 that his government had been caught off guard by the explosive growth in the province.
Currently, the Progressive Conservatives have 60 seats in the legislature, the Liberals 16, the NDP 4 and the Wildrose Alliance Party 1, with one independent and one seat vacant.