Alberta: Polls show Wildrose still ahead of PCs

The right wing Wildrose party is challenging the right wing Progressive Conservative Party in the Alberta election. The Progressive Conservatives have ruled Alberta for four decades!

The parties are both run by women leaders, Danielle Smith for the Wildrose and Alison Redford for the Progressive Conservatives. A poll taken on April 16th by Leger gives the following percentages for the main parties. Liberals 9 per cent, NDP(left) 10 per cent Progressive Conservatives 36 per cent and the Wildrose 42 per cent. See this site..

Seat projections go against the ruling Progressive Conservatives. On April 16th the projections were: Liberal 1, NDP 4, Progressive Conservatives 33, Wildrose 49. See this site.

The Wildrose party has had some problems with two candidates who have had to clarify remarks about race and homosexuality. Smith has tried hard to keep her candidates under control. At a recent leaders debate the Wildrose leader Danielle Smith was heckled the most.

Smith has suggested that the science of global warming is not settled. This brought howls from some in the audience. However the Alberta oil patch supporters may not find this offensive!

There seems to be a stop the Wildrose party campaign. There is even a website entitled: "I Never Thought I'd vote PC". Perhaps some Liberals and NDPers might vote strategically.We will see but the campaign may be a sign of desperation on the part of the Progressive Conservatives. The vote is next Monday. For more see this article.

Wildrose Party campaign bus feature soft porn of Danielle Smith

 Alberta tends to be an all or nothing state as far as parties are concerned usually electing large majorities for the winning party almost invariably some brand of conservative leaning party at least in recent times.

The leader of the Wildrose party Danielle Smith is facing another woman leader of the Progressive Conservatives Alison Redford. The main opposition on the left is the New Democratic Party.

As the Wildrose campaign bus was rolled out people soon noticed that the placement of Smith's picture was quite remarkable. Her head and shoulders are directly above the big back wheels of the bus framing them and it appears the wheels might be part of her anatomy! There has been enough negative reaction that the party has announced that her photo on the bus will be changed. Maybe the NDP opposition planned this!

Although Wildrose candidate Shannon Stubbs told CBC that the photo would be changed she said appropriately:"Albertans are going to want to talk about the challenges of the province, rather than pictures on the side of a campaign bus." However, it seems that photos on the bus and campaign gaffes will always be a subject of conversation as well. Even on so serious a news service as All Voices.

For more see this CBC article or the Globe and Mail. I have included a video of the bus from CBC television. The election is expected some time near the end of April. I predict the Progressive Conservatives will win!

Time for Seat Projections Alberta Election

Calgary Grit has a good post on the Alberta Election with many excellent links and his own predictions. Here are mine. The Liberals pick up two seats from last time but the Conservatives still get just two less than in the last election. I may be a bit low as far as the Conservatives are concerned. The Liberals may pick up a couple of seats in Calgary.

PC 60 Lib 18 NDP 4 WRA 1


Here is the post by Calgary Grit:

Alberta Election Predictions

Now, I haven't set foot in Alberta once during this campaign and the polls all show a very volatile and difficult to predict electorate. So be prepared to laugh long and hard at these predictions come Tuesday.

I've linked to the polls in my week in review post - two out of three actually show the PCs gaining seats which would defy all forms of logic. Some Conservatives are privately predicting 65 seats - but my hunch is that those people are just Dinning organizers trying to raise expectations to make a leadership review vote more justifiable. Then again, some expert seat projections have the Tories in the 70s, challenging Klein's personal best.

Alberta Tory makes a series of 10 predictions here. One blogger does riding by riding picks here. ES makes no predictions but offers up a very detailed election primer.

Jason Markusoff profiles 10 ridings to watch and offers a free coffee to any readers predicting 9 of 10 correctly. The Sun's Kerry Diotte offers CDs for the closest picks. I offer nothing, but I still encourage readers to make their predictions in the comments section bellow.

And, as for my predictions:

PC 56
Lib 22
NDP 4
WRA 1
Green 0 (despite the hype around Lacombe Ponoka)


In Calgary
I'm going to be optimistic and say the Alberta Liberals pick up 5 in cowtown: Buffalo, McCall, North Hill, Glenmore, and a surprise somewhere. The Alliance vote increases in the city (at least in ridings where they field candidates), but Craig Chandler finishes a disappointing (for him) third in Egmont. All four Liberal incumbents should be re-elected, although I do think Craig Cheffins is vulnerable.

In Edmonton
Given all the three way races and polls showing the PCs flying high in the capital, Edmonton is a bit harder to predict. I've heard rumours that David Eggen is vulnerable but I'm going to keep it in the win column for the NDP in my predictions. I'm going to say the Liberals pick up Manning and Castle Downs but, in both cases, they aren't really pick-ups, since they won Manning under Dan Backs last election and they won Castle Downs before a judicial recount reversed the decision. Despite this, the polls lead me to believe the PCs will be knocking off a few Liberals in Edmonton. So I'm going to say Stelmach picks up two out of Ellerslie, Glenora, and Meadowlark. I also think there's an outside change the parties could flip St. Alberta and Spruce Grove-Sturgeon St. Albert.

And all the Rest
I'll say the Liberals sweep Lethbridge, but I don't see a lot of other "rural" seats changing. The ALP have a shot in Red Deer and Medicine Hat if the Alliance surges, but I just don't see it happening. The big question, of course, is whether Paul Hinman will survive. For the sake of having a viable right wing opposition in the province I hope he does. Mr. Hinman has gotten solid reviews this campaign so I think he'll be back but I doubt he'll be joined by any fellow wild rosers, unless Link Byfield pulls off the upset in Whitecourt (which I wouldn't rule out given the strong Alliance show there last time).


So, there you have. The view from 2000 miles away. I fully expect that the distance will show and that these won't be anywhere near the mark.
Labels: Alberta Election, Predictions

A Tory Landslide in Alberta?

Most of the media seems to be giving up on trying to stop the Stelmach victory. Of course it would never be called a tide or wave. Stelmach is not Obama! Even so, at least one predictress sees even more seats for the Conservatives:

"I feel like I'm really sticking my neck out, but I think they're going to gain seats," said Ms. Brown, projecting the next legislature will house 70 to 72 Tories.

The quote is from an article in the Globe and Mail reproduced below. An article in the National Post seems to grasp at straws noting that there are still a lot of undedcided and there may be a poor turnout that will hurt the Tories. Shouldn't the media be urging everyone to get out and vote! Hmm.. Maybe they don't like Stelmach!

VOTING DAY

Alberta sleepwalks through campaign
DAWN WALTON

March 3, 2008

CALGARY -- Few reporters tagged along during Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach's last dash through Calgary, the only place likely to dampen his party's easy claim to an 11th consecutive majority when Albertans go to the polls today.

Staffers were shocked Saturday when not a single television camera showed up for the leader's first public meeting with Tory hopeful and former "Scud Stud" Arthur Kent, who had lashed out at Mr. Stelmach for "talking down" to candidates, one of the few criticisms that roused voters who have otherwise been sleepwalking through the 28-day campaign.

Instead of complaining about being stood up at a campaign event, Mr. Kent gushed about Mr. Stelmach's visit to his riding - one of the few places where a Tory faces an uphill battle - and how the party has changed.

Alberta is oil-rich and debt-free, yet voters are uneasy with the pace of growth and are agitating for change. But when they cast their votes, Albertans are widely expected to also put aside their grievances and extend the Tory Party's 37-year hold on government on the belief that the party itself has changed.

Mr. Stelmach might well approach former premier Ralph Klein's "Ralph's World" feat of 2001, when the Tories captured 74 of the legislature's 83 seats, according to Janet Brown, a public opinion research consultant who has designed a seat-projection model that predicts election outcomes with uncanny accuracy.

When the legislature was dissolved last month, the Tories had 60 seats, the Liberals 16, the New Democrats four, and the Wildrose Alliance one. There was one Independent and one vacant seat.

During the 2004 election when frustration was simmering about Mr. Klein's leadership, Ms. Brown predicted every seat correctly except one - the contentious Edmonton riding where the Tory ultimately beat the Liberal by three votes.

"I feel like I'm really sticking my neck out, but I think they're going to gain seats," said Ms. Brown, projecting the next legislature will house 70 to 72 Tories.

Despite a climate of change, no big issues have emerged, the opposition parties have had little traction and a large number of voters - up to a quarter, according to some polls - are undecided.

Business has been brisk at some advance polls, but many observers are expecting a low turnout, perhaps even lower than the 2004 election when the so-called Kleinfeld campaign largely about nothing attracted a historic low of 44.7 per cent of eligible voters.

The electorate here tends to show displeasure by not voting rather than by voting against the governing party, which has some Tories worried that support could slip to the 50-seat range.

But Mr. Stelmach's main competition, Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, who has run a well-intentioned, but unremarkable campaign, is burdened by competing in a province where bashing Liberals is practically a sport.

"To stand up anywhere and say you're not a Conservative is taboo," said 57-year-old Susan Young, who lives in the central Alberta community of Lacombe. "I don't understand Albertans. Why is it that people can only vote one tiny part of the political spectrum?"

Stelmach out of tune with Albertans?

Another article critical of Stelmach. Add these all together and many Albertan conservatives will be sure Stelmach is the right man. It all stinks of Cowtown trying to get revenge for Stelmach stealing the leadership from the rightful Calgary business crowd. Notice that although recent polls show that the PCs could even increase their seat take overall only negative aspects of polls appear in this article. The author is most selective. There is no mention that even in Calgary Conservative support is 44 percent!

Stelmach out of tune with Albertans

Mar 02, 2008 04:30 AM
Gillian Steward


Conservative premiers in Alberta usually cruise through election campaigns. For Ralph Klein, they were nothing more than a big bore. Peter Lougheed once won 74 of 79 seats. The current premier, Ed Stelmach, is definitely not cruising; he's had a rough ride.

Almost every day of the campaign – tomorrow is election day – he has been ambushed by embarrassing revelations that have shot holes in his government's key economic strategy: extracting and selling the oil in the tar sands of northern Alberta.

Stelmach made it clear when he was elected leader of the party 14 months ago that he would not put the brakes on the frenzied pace of development, not even slow it down a little bit, even though it has thrust the province's economy into overdrive.

Municipalities simply can't keep up with the roads, schools, hospitals and housing that are needed to accommodate the surging number of workers. Even Lougheed has publicly stated that it would be better to stagger the tar sands projects rather than let them all go ahead at once because that drives up costs for everyone.

Still, Stelmach kept insisting his government would stand aside as the energy giants carved up the landscape and shipped the oil south. He would point to the billions of dollars flowing into the province as proof that his strategy was working.

But last month, it was revealed that some energy companies – including Petro-Canada, Imperial Oil, Husky Energy and Suncor – would also like a more staggered approach.

In a letter sent to the government before the election was called, the companies, along with aboriginal groups and environmentalists, called for a moratorium on new projects to protect land and waterways. And while other major tar- sands players such as Encana and CNRL did not sign the letter, it is the first time that any petroleum companies have publicly expressed serious reservations about the pace of development and its effect on the environment.

As if that wasn't bad enough, a few days later, the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think-tank, revealed the results of a survey of candidates from all the political parties. Almost half of the Conservative candidates who took part said no new tar-sands projects should be approved until environmental and infrastructure issues are resolved, while 75 per cent of the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens wanted a slowdown.

The next day, a Leger poll revealed that the dissenting Conservatives and the opposition are more attuned to what most Albertans want than the premier. Nearly two-thirds of Albertans said the government should do more to limit the overall amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by tar-sands projects, even if it means some projects would be delayed or cancelled.

Stelmach's response has been vague. He has said only that the government would make a decision on environmental questions after the election.

None of this did much for the premier's image. He's already seen as weak and indecisive. Expectations of his performance are so low that some commentators praised him for simply making it through the televised leaders' debate.

Stelmach also looks as though he's simply not willing, or able, to stand up to the big boys in the oil patch. His Conservatives might still be re-elected, but even if they are, Stelmach is going to have to dig deep if he wants to set things straight with Albertans.


Gillian Steward is a Calgary writer and journalist, and former managing editor of the Calgary Herald.

Undecided votes have Alberta PCs in a knot

This is from the Globe and Mail. So someone wants an Obama-like injection of charisma into the campaign. Without illusions it is a dull circus and stale bread and also the media have nothing to feast on or foist upon us.





Undecided voters have Alberta PCs in a knot
No opposition party has inspired people, political scientist says, but Tories need to press supporters to vote
DAWN WALTON AND KATHERINE O'NEILL

February 29, 2008

CALGARY and EDMONTON -- Rod Love has had his hand in Alberta politics for three decades, but in all that time, the brash Tory operative has not been one to use words - publicly at least - such as "worrisome" and "abnormal" during a campaign.

But now he is.

As the Alberta election race winds into its final days, the consultant who was once chief of staff to former premier Ralph Klein is concerned enough about the huge swath of still-undecided voters that he has a warning to Progressive Conservative supporters.

"There are 83 Conservative candidates whose job it is [by election day] to convince Conservative voters that if you don't come out, if you stay home, we could elect Liberals," Mr. Love said. "That's what will happen. I don't care if you're frustrated or mad, you've got to vote or you're going to elect Liberals."

Polls have repeatedly projected an 11th consecutive Tory majority on Monday, but they also reveal a persistently large number of undecided voters - even this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, a surprising number of voters are calling for a change in government, are unhappy with Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach and are willing to switch their vote.

"There's definitely a lot of fluidity yet in the voter commitment," said Harold Jansen, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. "Voters are ready for a change. They're ready for something different, but none of the opposition parties have done a good job inspiring it."

The undecided segment has all parties - especially the Tories - in a knot.

Last spring, when Mr. Stelmach, a former farmer whose style is as electrifying as watching crops grow, was easing into his new job as Premier, polls suggested 15 per cent of voters were undecided. By the time he was preparing to call the election to extend the party's 37-year reign, more than one-quarter of the electorate said they weren't sure who to vote for. Throughout the four-week campaign, the number of ambivalent voters has fluctuated between 18 and 27 per cent.

Of course, assessing the impact of the undecided sector depends on one's perspective.

One theory suggests the uncommitted pool is actually made up of Conservatives. They might simply stay home, which, according to traditional wisdom, is how Tories display their displeasure in Alberta. That's bad news for Mr. Stelmach, or so the logic goes.

Certainly, that was the rationale advanced when Liberal Craig Cheffins won Mr. Klein's riding last summer in the by-election in Calgary-Elbow. Turnout was dismally low - less than 35 per cent. Tory support dropped dramatically compared with the previous two general elections. Even support for the winning Liberal actually fell compared with the 2004 provincial vote.

"It's pretty obvious that the Conservatives have to convince their members to get off the couch," said Mr. Love, citing Calgary-Elbow as evidence of the threat.

Another theory suggests that the undecided are Tories who will show up and vote as they always have - or for another party.

Mr. Love, who is convinced the undecided are Tories, is confident they will vote with the government. If they don't, he said, they'll place their vote with the right-wing upstart, the Wildrose Alliance, rather than the left-leaning Liberals or New Democrats.

Prof. Jansen isn't so sure. "I think some people will hold their nose and vote for somebody, but it's hard to know how that will break down," he said.

Alexandra Bruseker, a 24-year-old Edmonton resident, plans to make up her mind this weekend. But the University of Alberta business student, who has voted Liberal and Conservative in the past, isn't thrilled with her options.

"Nobody seems terribly passionate. I don't think Ralph Klein was the greatest leader, but he certainly had passion and was able to rally the troops," she said.

That's the other thing about Alberta politics: It tends to be heavily leader-focused, and while some leaders have offered concrete policies during this campaign, none have brought any magnetism to the table, Prof. Jansen said.

"One of my colleagues and I were e-mailing that we need to have an emergency charisma injection from [U.S. presidential hopeful Barack] Obama into Alberta politicians," he said.

Mr. Stelmach has warned this week that "a vote for the Alliance is a vote for the Liberals," but has also said last week's televised leaders debate helped sway many uncommitted voters toward the Tories.

"My political antenna is telling me that the voters are starting to crystallize their decisions and that a lot of the undecided will start to come our way," he said during a campaign stop in Edmonton this week.

Ms. Bruseker still wants to see some solid plans for the future of this oil-rich province. She tuned in to the only leaders debate of the campaign to help make up her mind, but turned it off when it erupted into a fight.

"I can't be bothered with that," she said.

Seat projections and vote percentage Alberta election

These projections are as of Feb. 13 with the number of seats at dissolution in parentheses: These statistics are from Democratic Space.
Seats Cons 62(60) Lib 16(16) NDP 4(4) Green 0(0) Wild Rose A. 1(1)


Vote % Cons. 49.8 Lib. 24.5 NDP 10.2 Green 6.1 Wild Rose 7.42
Other 2.0


A poll about a week later by Leger that includes only decided voters gives percentage as follows:This is from NoDice.


PC 35 Lib 23 NDP 7 Green 4 Wild Rose Alliance 8 Undecided 23

There are quite a few undecided but probably many are Conservatives or people who don't like any of the parties! It seems likely that the Conservatives will come through the election without losing too many seats.

Alberta election polls.

Recent polls are available at nodice.. There is another more recent Leger poll but here are the results of a recent Angus Reid poll:

Conservatives 42 per cent.
Liberals 31
Wild Rose Alliance 10
NDP 9
Green 8

Although the concentration of votes is importance the NDP Wild Rose Alliance and Greens do not seem likely to gain many seats. The Conservatives look safe enough all the Liberals apparently have some momentum.

Stelmach: Environment trumps economy.

This is from the Globe and Mail.
This is a rather astonishing headline until it becomes clear from the article that Stelmach's actions show the opposite. No doubt he is trying to appeal to environmentalists who oppose him. Stelmach refuses to say whether he has changed his mind on letting market forces determine Oilsands development.
Taft accuses Stelmach of not having a plan. This is a bit strange after Stelmach in the same article outlines his plan such as it is: reduction of emissions by 14 percent from 2005 levels by 2050. Surely Taft should have criticised that rather than complain that Stelmach had none.


Environment trumps economy, Stelmach says
Alberta Tory leader trumpets emissions targets but falls short of calling for controls on oil-and-gas developments
DAWN WALTON AND KATHERINE O'NEILL
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
February 26, 2008 at 5:24 AM EST
CALGARY, EDMONTON — Alberta Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach has been steadfast about not putting the brakes on oil sands development, but in a surprising about-face in the midst of a provincial election campaign, he suggested yesterday that environmental policy may trump economics.
"Environment takes precedence over the economy," Mr. Stelmach told reporters in Calgary, responding to questions about future expansion in the oil sands north of Fort McMurray.
Still, he warned that government should not step in to "control the economy" and rustled up the image of the still-not-forgotten national energy program implemented by Pierre Trudeau's federal Liberal government in 1980, which drove up interest rates and drove out investment.
"We're not going back to those dark days," said Mr. Stelmach, reiterating his party's environmental plan to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 14 per cent from 2005 levels by 2050. "Our plan is achievable. It's realistic. It's fiscally responsible."
With voting day set for next Monday, Mr. Stelmach is facing an emboldened opposition and polls predicting a slimmed-down majority for the Tories. His pro-industry stand on environmental protection is widely viewed as his Achilles heel.
His latest comments came in response to a report that some of Canada's biggest oil producers want to see a partial moratorium placed on oil sands development in an apparent effort to preserve conservation land, as first reported in The Globe and Mail.
Husky Energy Ltd., Petro-Canada Corp. and Suncor Inc. were among the big players in the oil patch who signed a letter submitted to the provincial government last month that asked Alberta to halt land lease sales until 2011 in three areas - one of which, Mr. Stelmach pointed out, doesn't even have oil sands underneath it.
Slowing development would also ease pressure on energy companies struggling through a labour shortage and protect their interests from new competition.
The oil and gas industry did not unanimously sign the letter, which was presented on behalf of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association, whose members include representatives from government, the energy sector and native bands.
Yesterday, Mr. Stelmach said the province is still waiting for environmental reports on air, water and soil quality before making a decision about how to proceed with leases. He also said he is waiting on a final vote among the association's 46 members slated for June.
But that vote applies to an overall land-management framework for the region. The moratorium on leases as proposed by the oil companies could be addressed at any time, a source said, but the government risks losing income from land leases.
"We've yet to receive a response from the Alberta government," association spokesman Corey Hobbs said yesterday. "We eagerly anticipate it."
Greenpeace said yesterday a partial moratorium doesn't go far enough and called for no new approvals in "one of the dirtiest and largest industrial projects on the planet."
At the same time, the treaty chiefs in the Athabasca region have passed a unanimous resolution that calls for no new oil sands approvals until they have accepted watershed and resource management plans.
Since the day Mr. Stelmach held his first news conference in 2006, after being named Leader of the governing Tories, he has said he had no plans to slow down oil sands growth, preferring to let the market decide the pace of development.
Yesterday, he wouldn't directly answer questions about whether he has changed that view and instead criticized the opposition parties for wanting to impose "Kyoto-style emissions controls" on the energy sector and increase the province's share of royalties, which could scare away investment. Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft said Mr. Stelmach is "out of touch" on the issue.
"The right thing to do is say that Alberta needs a plan," he told reporters in Edmonton.
It's ridiculous, he added, that Mr. Stelmach keeps invoking the memory of a former prime minister on the campaign trail.
"Pierre Trudeau was elected 40 years ago - Ed, get over it," Mr. Taft said.

Corporations refusing to donate to Stelmach?

Given that the party has 4 million in the kitty and intends to spend just 2 million on the campaign perhaps the party isn't too worried! The opposition parties have only a small fraction of two million to spend as the article shows.

Imagine the grumpiness of the corporate kingmakers when Ed Stelmach has that 4 million to spend instead of the oilmaker's likely choice, Jim Dinning.



Alta Tory insider says corporate Calgary refusing donations to Stelmach campaign
2 days ago
CALGARY - Grumpiness over a planned $1.4-billion increase in energy royalties appears to be costing Alberta's Progressive Conservatives their usual windfall of corporate donations as the party campaigns for the March 3 election.
"It's very difficult to raise dough in Calgary these days," a member of the Tories' powerful finance committee told The Canadian Press on Friday.
"The oil and gas industry feels betrayed from this government, and that's reflected in the amount of money we can't raise."
"About 70 per cent of our money we traditionally raise out of Calgary, so when you see a big drop in the Calgary fundraising, it hurts."
Premier Ed Stelmach announced the royalty increase last fall after a review by a government-appointed committee. The new formula is to take effect next January and the government expects to reach the $1.4-billion figure by 2010 - a 20 per cent increase over currently projected revenues for that year.
Royalty reform is not the only irritant. Some Calgary Tories have been grumbling ever since Stelmach won the party leadership over Jim Dinning, a corporate executive from Calgary, in December 2006.
Last summer, the Tories lost a byelection in what should have been the safest of seats, Calgary Elbow, which was held for years by former leader Ralph Klein.
Tory campaign spokesman Paul Stanway described any fundraising problems in Calgary as "ancient history," but wouldn't provide details.
"In fact, there's been an uptick in that sort of support from Calgary," he said. "But what we're raising is none of (your) business at this point."
The chairman of the finance committee in Calgary was not available for comment. A call Friday to the party's executive director was not returned.
The Conservative war chest was close to $4 million when the election was called. The bankroll dwarfs the finances of political rivals, but the finance committee member said the party will spend roughly half of the money on this year's campaign.
"This election is going to cost us approximately $2 million," he said. "But normally we like to have enough money around to run two elections."
The New Democrats, who refuse to take corporate donations, will spend $750,000 on the campaign. The Alberta Liberals haven't released their campaign budget, but still have more than $400,000 in debt from the 2001 election.
Stanway refused to confirm how much the Tories are spending. He did say it's more than usual so as to counter union-sponsored TV attack ads aimed at Stelmach's leadership.
"I'm not going to put a number on it, but I will tell you that this is certainly a much more ambitious campaign than the party has done in recent years," said Stanway, who is also the premier's communications director.
The Tories held 60 of 83 seats when the election was called and have enjoyed 10 straight majorities dating back three dozen years. The party constitution requires a leadership review within a year or two following an election, so Stelmach will have to win another strong majority to secure his future, said the source.
"I think the magic number for Ed is 50 (seats). I think anything 50 or under and he's in trouble."
The insider also said he started getting a sense earlier this week that undecided votes were starting to slip away from Stelmach's Conservatives.
"The polls aren't indicating it yet, but we're in trouble in Calgary," he said. "People started landing on the decided side and it wasn't with the Tories."
A member of Klein's inner circle also told The Canadian Press that fundraising problems were becoming apparent in corporate Calgary.
"This is serious stuff," said the one-time Klein staffer. "The finance committee is more powerful than people think. If they can't raise money, they can have a great influence on the leader's future."
The finance committee member recalls how the 30-member committee forced Don Getty to step aside as premier when the Tories experienced a similar fundraising drought in 1992.
"This is the committee that told Getty, 'The time has come. We can't raise money out of Calgary under your leadership,"' he said. "So, yeah, they're a very influential group."

Wildrose Alliance short 22 candidates (updated)

This is from the Edmonton Journal. The lack of candidates in some Edmonton ridings may help the Conservatives retain some urban seats that they otherwise might lose through a split vote.Although the Greens are running more candidates it remains to be seen if they are able to elect anyone.

Wildrose Alliance short 22 candidates (updated)
edmontonjournal.comPublished: Monday, February 18
EDMONTON - Voters in 22 Alberta ridings won't be able to choose a far-right alternative to the Conservatives. The Wildrose Alliance is fielding only 61 candidates this election, party officials confirmed shortly after today's nomination deadline for Elections Alberta. Its predecessor party, the Alberta Alliance, fielded a full slate of 83 candidates in the 2004 election, electing one member and getting 90,829 votes. Paul Hinman, the party's leader and lone MLA, has attributed the recent merger with the fledgling Wildrose party to the organizational woes. As it was, several Wildrose Alliance candidates barely made this afternoon's 2 p.m. deadline. "It's been a mad rush to find candidates, and to get the paperwork in place," Hinman said in an interview from his riding of Cardston-Taber-Warner, where he's in a tough race to keep his own seat. "My understanding is there would have been 10 others, if we had one more day." Meanwhile, the Alberta Greens' website proclaimed they had nominated 79 of 83 candidates. Last election, the party ran 49 candidates but won no seats.
"It's going to give us a huge leap in credibility," said a jubilant George Read, the Greens' leader. "A lot more people are going to have the opportunity to vote Green."
The Liberals, NDP and Progressive Conservatives all announced full slates shortly after the campaign began Feb. 4, but the Liberal in Peace River dropped out at the last moment. The declared candidate was Cory Van Der Aa, an Edmonton scaffolder who had never been to the northwestern riding before tentatively putting his name forward, according to a local media account.
Kevin Taft's party ran one candidate shy of a full slate in 2004 as well, when the Liberals' contender in Drumheller-Stettler also pulled out.


The Alliance's vacancies include five ridings in Edmonton - including the three currently held by Tories Gene Zwozdesky, Thomas Lukaszuk and Dave Hancock. The Alliance garnered about 500 votes in each of those constituencies last election. The absence of those votes this time may boost the re-election chances of the capital's only Tory MLAs.

Alberta: Public Auto Insurance Becomes a key election issue.

Since NAFTA no province has brought in a public auto insurance scheme. NAFTA rules would probably be invoked by private industry as happened in New Brunswick. The NDP when it was in power in Ontario considered public auto insurance but backed away from it for ostensibly the same reason. Of course it could be that it was because Bob Rae was the leader at the time!
This is from the Globe and Mail.

The New Brunswick government turned down the recommendation of a select committee for a public insurance scheme after it had been warned that it could be sued for expropriation under NAFTA by private insurance.



February 12, 2008
Auto insurance becomes a top election issue
$4,000 cap on soft tissue claims struck down
By The Canadian Press
A major court ruling is making public versus private auto insurance one of the top issues in the campaign for the March 3 Alberta election.
Premier Ed Stelmach is saying the ruling last week that struck down a $4,000 cap the province imposed on soft tissue claims creates “tremendous pressure” to increase auto rates.
Today, NDP Leader Brian Mason laid out proposals for public auto insurance that he says would save drivers as much as $400 a year.
Mason says the court ruling couldn’t have come at a better time because it opens the debate in Alberta — the only province in the West without public insurance.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft says his party would also support a public insurance system if it proved to be a cheaper alternative.
Alberta’s insurance reforms in 2004 capped the payout for whiplash injuries and created a new way of calculating premiums that reduced rates for most drivers.

Party Websites: Alberta election

Here is a list of the main party websites for the Alberta provincial election.
The list comes from this site. The business community is very upset it seems that Stelmach leads the Conservatives. The Financial Post claims that the Wild Rose spokesperson sums it up:
Perhaps Paul Hinman, leader of the fringe Wildrose Alliance, best summed up the mood:
"We have three socialist parties [in Alberta] who are all saying that if we tax and take away from the most successful industries, we are going to make our communities better."
Wow! Maybe if you stretch the meaning the way it is nowadays the NDP might be called socialist or at least vaguely pink but hardly Stelmach or Taft. The oil patch people must be filled with right-wing extremists far to the right of good old George to our south. More likely they are just venting or hyperventilating.

Alberta Tories score high in analysis of provincial election party websites
1 day ago
EDMONTON - The party websites are up and running in the Alberta election campaign. The Canadian Press asked Steven Hoose, who teaches web design at Edmonton's Grant MacEwan College, to asses the sites:
Progressive Conservatives (http://www.albertapc.ab.ca/)
Strengths: Pretty impressive overall and very on-message from a design point of view. There is visual unity. All the things I see on the page play well together and the pages are easy to scan. The site uses contrasting scale and colour in headings and subheads to help me order the messages they consider important. The messages are in predictable locations for content like navigation, key tasks, and important information. My eyes and brain don't have to do a lot of extra work.
Weaknesses: An introductory splash page that you must click on to enter a site. I try to push students away from this gimmick because it does nothing for the content or your visitor's experience. Also, too much visual consistency and the site becomes boring. I'd consider changing things up a bit from page to page to maintain interest.
Most Impressed By: The efficiency. Not a lot of clicking to get from general to specific, like to an excellent visual list of candidates.
Alberta NDP (http://www.albertandp.ca/)
Strengths: Visually approachable. The colours, shapes with rounded corners, language, photos,and messages add up to a friendly site. It's easy to read. site visitors have choices (weight, size, and colour of type) to help them read on-screen.
Weaknesses: Too much wheat. Get away from the wheat motif in Western Canadian logo design. I also could not shake the feeling that I was on a shopping site. It felt too friendly and that damaged the credibility in my mind. I blame this on the friendly colours, friendly logoa nd the friendly "Four ways You can Help" icons. Style and substance aren't mutually exclusive, but without appropriate style, we might miss substance.
Most Impressed By: The visual interest. Every page had enough different and enough same to make the overall experience balanced and visually engaging.
Alberta Liberal Party (http://www.albertaliberal.com/ )
Strengths: Clarity of navigation. Each page has menus listed on the left side. I like this way of structuring complicated content. I never lose my available choices. There are lots of people pictures, which is a good design choice. The volume of content is overwhelming, so I'm glad there are smiling faces surrounding all of those words.
Weaknesses: Visually daunting. No one likes to wade through content that is all there all the time. Most prefer to scan web pages for personally relevant content instead of cracking the spine on an epic read. I'm as happy to be given some policy detail, but visually I just don't want to see it all at once. The grid pattern in backgrounds, buttons and banner is dated and boring.
Most Impressed By: The use of imagery. Even though it's overtly "leader heavy" (there isn't a single page without party leader Kevin Taft), pictures are an effective way to make messages more approachable.
Green Party of Alberta (http://www.albertagreens.ca/)
They win the award for worst application of a really good logo and brand. Their audience is more sophisticated than their visuals and there is a lack of human presence and visual interest on the site.
Wildrose-Alliance (http://www.wildrosealliance.ca/)
Their website is well organized but hard to scan for information because of the number of small pieces I had to sift through. Lots of "click to read more." I like the wild rose concept better than the wheat as a visual approach, but the Wildrose-Alliance logo is looking retro - and not in that desirable way that the chrome dining sets look. Also, the word "announced" should never look like "amounced."

Alberta election: Wildrose Alliance

This is from Canadian Press. The Wildrose Alliance has one seat. It remains to be seen if it will make much difference in the election. The platform is partly populist and partly pro-business but donations from big oil and other businesses are unlikely until the party seems like a good investment! The party will have to depend upon local grassroots support.

Wildrose Alliance unveils Alberta elxn platform; targets Premier Ed Stelmach
22 hours ago
CALGARY - Alberta has had a history of being the birthplace of new political movements.
The Social Credit, the United Farmers of Alberta and Reform Party took root and grew in power and influence, while others like the Representative Party and Western Canada Concept eventually disappeared.
The Wildrose Alliance is hoping to grow on the electoral success of electing Paul Hinman in the last provincial election and to strengthen its numbers in the March 3 provincial election.
Hinman was elected in southern Alberta riding of Cardston-Taber-Warner for the Alberta Alliance party, which recently merged with another right-of-centre political party to form the Wildrose Alliance.
"Well, four (seats) is the critical mass that we need in order to have official party status and four going forward is great," said Hinman, who was in Calgary Saturday to release his party's election platform.
"We'll make it onto the scene and make a significant difference and sent a message to (Premier Ed) Stelmach."
"They just think the worry is they gotta spend more money and have more programs than the Liberals."
Hinman's election was seen as a protest vote by many political analysts and was an embarrassment for the Conservative government of then premier Ralph Klein.
Hinman is aware the Stelmach government is putting significant resources in winning back the riding of
"That's my understanding. They're certainly wanting to squash the true Conservative voice in the province here," he said.
"Stelmach called an early election and he's on a downslide that we're travelling down. The bridge is out and he hasn't told Albertans."
Hinman outlined a series of platforms he said will be aimed at improving life for Alberta families:
-fixed-election dates, laws to recall members of the legislature and referendums on citizen initiatives;
-increasing personal income tax exemptions to $20,000 and reducing the corporate income tax to eight per cent from 10.
-offering doctors forgiveness of the cost of their education in exchange for remaining in Alberta for five years;
-eliminating health-care premiums immediately;
-creation of an Alberta pension plan.
The Wildrose Alliance is also calling for an equitable royalty regime to ensure outside investment continues in Alberta. Hinman said thousands of Alberta jobs are at risk and action needs to be taken to ensure the oil and gas sector remains strong.
The new royalty regime implemented by the Stelmach government will require a 20 per cent increase in the amount of royalties that energy companies will have to pay to the government.
"He is not growing the pie, he is shrinking it," warned Hinman.
The party has not revealed how many candidates it will be able to field by the time that Albertans go to the polls but is expected to garner much of its support in rural Alberta.
Hinman remains optimistic that the Wildrose Alliance will fare better than other Conservative movements have done in the past.
"The difference is 36 years," he said. "The Tories have been around for 36 years and their ship is sinking and all they focus is on what they have to do to get re-elected when a government should be worried about what we have to do to protect the prosperity."

Alberta Election Roundup February 7th

This is from a few days ago from 630ched (Edmonton.) Stelmach's handlers don't seem to be briefing him very well by the sound of the first item. The Liberal "green" policy could very well scare a lot of people who worry about such measures hurting the economy. Stelmach may be able to capitalise on that. It may grab some possible NDP or Green voters but that is about all. The policy may be mostly rhetoric just as the Federal Liberal policy on the environment has been historically. Speak loudly and do little or nothing.

Alberta Election: Thursday round-up
Feb, 07 2008 - 8:30 PM
EDMONTON - Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach got more than he bargained for today when he stopped at a Red Deer daycare centre to promise help for families. Campaigning for the March 3 election, Stelmach promised minor improvements to the Family Employment Tax Credit, the creation of 14-thousand new daycare spaces, and recruitment of foreign workers to help staff the expansion. But about a dozen mothers who came to hear him were unimpressed when he couldn't tell them how much money they would save through the tax credit and or why daycare remains so expensive in Canada's richest province. Annick Baldwin says that by her calculations, a family with two kids and 60-thousand dollars income would get absolutely no benefit from the premier's plan. (The Canadian Press) ---------------
A coalition of 15 major health organizations has waded into the Alberta election campaign with a call for a multimillion-dollar foundation aimed at making Albertans the healthiest people in Canada. The group, called HealthVision2020, includes the Canadian Cancer Society, Alberta Medical Association and Association of Registered Nurses of Alberta. They're calling on voters in the March 3rd election to question their candidates' commitment to health promotion and disease prevention. The group estimates the proposed health promotion foundation would cost 120 (m) million dollars in the first year, but says that amounts to about one per cent of the health budget, or less than the cost of a major highway interchange. (The Canadian Press) -----------------
Alberta's energy producers are watching the candidates in the March 3rd provincial election for clues on how the province's next premier will deal with what they call the unintended consequences of the new royalty regime. Don Herring, president of the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, wants the next government to give natural gas drilling companies a break, since they have been suffering the most from the royalty changes. Progressive Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach has said he's sticking by his plan to increase royalties by one-point-four (b) billion dollars in 2009, but will talk with the industry about how to ease some its effects -- like more merger and acquisition activity and declining stock prices. Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft says his party would rework the royalty plan so that natural gas producers -- already suffering from low commodity prices and high production costs -- feel less of a burden. Under the Liberal plan, the province would take more from the ever-expanding oilsands business. New Democrat Leader Brian Mason says he would reopen the royalty debate altogether. (The Canadian Press)
---------------Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft was trying to paint his party as the greenest as he campaigned in Edmonton today. Taft says an Alberta Liberal government would cap all greenhouse gas emissions in five years -- a move Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach says would devastate the oilsands industry and the provincial economy. But Taft says the province must act quickly, in light of melting ice caps, declining water levels and other countries starting to balk at taking energy from so-called environmentally ``dirty' sources such as the oilsands. The Liberals promise to promote cleaner, renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power, improve building code standards to reduce energy consumption and push for more use of public transportation, recycling and composting. The N-D-P wants to increase oilsands royalties to further develop alternative energy resources, while the Tories have promised no oilsands emission reductions for 12 years as part of a plan to gradually cut emissions and prevent catastrophic job losses in the oilpatch. (The Canadian Press) (ccg)
- CP's Lorraine Turchansky

Poll: Stelmach heading for strong win

There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement about how much in danger the Conservatives are in Alberta. The main article is from the Edmonton Sun.
The Saskatoon Star Phoenix is a bit more pessimistic concerning Stelmach's chances.
""Some party insiders are bracing for a wipeout of Conservatives in the capital, a drop of four seats in Calgary and more losses around urban fringes. If a few unexpected seats add to the collapse, the longshot spectre of Alberta's first-ever minority government hangs over the campaign.
The perception problem is that former farmer Stelmach is seen as a poor fit with an increasingly cosmopolitan province hit by an urban population surge of ethnic and political diversity.
His recent speeches to Calgary and Edmonton business leaders were flat and poorly received. And if a pledge to eliminate health insurance premiums within four years is the best dare he could dream up for an election-triggering throne speech, well, it's open opposition season on charges the Stelmach government lacks a vision to cope with the economic explosion."

Yet the polls show that Stelmach is leading by a good margin in Calgary and doing well in Edmonton as well. The National Post post also is gloomy about Stelmach's performance in urban areas:
" But Conservative seat projections solicited from civic, provincial and federal observers, who have far closer contact to the ground than me, vary between a low of 40 seats and, at most, 55 seats.
For a government with 60 of the 83 seats now, that's not the sort of bubbling optimism that's supposed to springboard a government into a fresh bid for a new and stronger mandate.
Some party insiders are bracing for a wipeout of Conservatives in the capital, a drop of four seats in Calgary and more losses around urban fringes. If a few unexpected seats add to the collapse, the long-shot spectre of Alberta's first-ever minority government hangs over the campaign."

Perhaps all this shows is that Stelmach was not the choice of the urban Conservative elites but that the Conservative grass roots don't give two hoots about that! The Conservative popular vote is considerably above even that of the last election and they are doing well in the main cities! It is true of course that things can change during the campaign. However if the media starts a campaign to suggest that Stelmach is losing ground that may just cause a counter reaction that could help Stelmach do much better than he might otherwise.

February 9, 2008
Stelmach heading for strong win: poll
By BILL KAUFMANN, SUN MEDIA
CALGARY -- Alberta's governing Tories are on track to another strong majority, suggests a recent poll.
The Environics survey of 1,000 people conducted just before the electoral writ was dropped shows the Conservatives with 52% of the decided vote, compared to the Liberals' 25% and 10% for the NDP.
The Green Party follows at 7% with the newly formed Wildrose Alliance managing 6%, and a further 19% are undecided.
While Conservative support in Calgary is strong, at 48% versus the Grits' 29%, it's in Edmonton where the Tories have seen significant gains - going from 34% in the 2004 vote to 49% today.
The PCs' Calgary campaign chief, Bill Smith, said he's noticed a swing in the city back towards his party in recent weeks.
"People are getting more comfortable with Ed Stelmach, they're more willing to give him an opportunity," said Smith.
Liberal leader Kevin Taft wouldn't comment on the survey, saying "there's only one poll that counts and it's on March 3."
Grit spokesman Larry Johnsrude said the poll results are no surprise given the flurry of ad spending by the Tories in the days leading up to the campaign. "Obviously, that's going to skew things," he said.
Because the poll was done before the campaign was underway, the results shouldn't be taken too seriously, said University of Calgary political scientist Doreen Barrie.
"I don't know if any of this will hold - after the leaders' debate the numbers could change because Ed Stelmach is not very good on his feet and Kevin Taft is a real policy wonk," she said, adding a major blunder could upend the figures.
"The Tories shouldn't rest on their laurels."
Even so, it's clear years of opposition attempts to gain traction with the public haven't succeeded, said Barrie, while a cooling but still strong economy is playing in the Tories' favour.
In 2004, the Tories captured 62 of 83 seats with 46.8% of the popular vote, compared to 29% for the Liberals.
The poll's high undecided vote means much in the election remains up in the air, said NDP leader Brian Mason.
"The campaign will make a difference and the Tory popular vote in the election is always lower than these polls," said Mason.
Tory supporters are the ones most loyal to their party and least likely to switch their votes, states the poll.
It's accurate within 3.1% points 95 times out of 100.

Stelmach promises more doctors.

As opposition critics point out the former Conservative government was not working hard enough to solve this problem. Now Stelmach seems to be promising more than may be possible. The announcement shows lack of research and consultation on the problem. This is from the Edmonton Sun.

February 6, 2008
Stelmach promises more docs
By JEREMY LOOME, LEGISLATURE BUREAU
Premier Ed Stelmach promised yesterday to increase the number of doctors graduating in Alberta by 225 per year over the next four years if re-elected - a plan so ambitious that the province's top doctor doesn't think it's possible.
Noting Alberta already has the best retention rate for doctors, Stelmach kicked off his election campaign by saying his government's long-term health strategy, announced last fall, includes an increase of 258 post-secondary training spaces for health workers.
Stelmach then went on to announce the province would "create new physician training spaces over the next four years to graduate an additional 225 doctors per year.
"The Progressive Conservative plan recognizes and responds to our labour shortages in the health-care professions and ensures that capital investment and patient care will be available when and where Albertans need them," said Stelmach.
But according to Dr. Trevor Theman, registrar of the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta, that is likely not possible: although the need is there, it would require a near-doubling of current training spending from the province and involve recruiting dozens of more people to train them - with staff to train physicians already an issue for the existing 250 spots.
"Edmonton and Calgary are already maxed out in their ability to train, and even if there were more money, it's an issue of human resources," said Theman. "You need trainers available and you need people who have clinical experience to handle that training."
In fact, the only way to achieve the province's doctor target, said Theman, would be by relying chiefly on recruitment of overseas physicians, which is already the province's principal new source of doctors.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft predicted it would be an issue in nursing as well.
"It's pretty obvious that the Tories didn't do their homework on this one - it's one more random act of government, isn't it? They keep lurching around looking for off-the-cuff solutions to long, complex problems that they've allowed to fester over a period of years."
Taft said he fully expects Alberta will need that many additional doctors, but said the process should've started years ago. His party's platform on recruiting, which will be released later in the campaign, won't involve numbers that haven't been run by experts first, he said.
"This isn't something where you can flick a light switch and solve the problem," he said. "Sometimes I think Ed just bounces around like a pinball on this stuff, taking any suggestion that's thrown at him. But he was the biggest cheerleader when the province was cutting all of these areas."
New Democratic Party Leader Brian Mason said his party has spent years warning the Tories that there were shortages in medical training and that he's concerned they would make such a fundamental mistake.
"The fact that the plan to fix this is fundamentally flawed, that however doesn't surprise me," he said. "Here's the real problem: They should've started fixing these issues six years ago, or even earlier, when they were first identified," said Mason. "Then it could be done in a reasonable way. This is why Alberta needs a government that can spot problems early on and has the political courage to tackle them head on."

Alberta Election on March 3

This is from CBC. This hardly comes as a surprise. Even though Stelmach is not all that popular and the Conservatives have been in power for decades at worst it would seem that the Conservatives may lose some urban seats. Already, with his announcement that he will do away with health care premiums over four years Stelmach has undercut part of the Liberal program.


Alberta election called for March 3
Last Updated: Monday, February 4, 2008 4:12 PM MT
CBC News
Albertans will go to the polls on March 3, Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach confirmed Monday.
Stelmach made the announcement in the legislature to the applause of his fellow Conservatives less than an hour after Lt.-Gov. Norman Kwong delivered the speech from the throne to open a new session of the legislature.
Ed Stelmach rose in the legislature Monday to announce a provincial election for March 3.
What was supposed to be an outline for the Conservative government's plans for the coming session quickly turned into the the Tory election platform.
In the speech, the government promised to eliminate health-care premiums over four years, increase the number of health-care workers in the province and allocate significant new funding for crime reduction.
NDP Leader Brian Mason launched his party's campaign late Monday morning promising to be the party that speaks for "regular families."
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft announced his election platform Thursday night saying Albertans are tired of 36 years of Conservative rule. The Liberals are also promising an end to health-care premiums, and promise to lower electricity rates.


Tory leader must win over urban voters
This will be the first major election test for Stelmach, the 56-year-old rural politician who still operates a small grain farm near Lamont, 80 kilometres northeast of Edmonton.
Known by many as "Steady Eddie," he staged a "come from behind" victory to replace former premier Ralph Klein as party leader in December, mainly because of his support from rural Conservatives.
But his rural power base got him into trouble last June when the party suffered an embarrassing loss in a Calgary by-election. The Liberals won Calgary-Elbow, taking Klein's long-time seat. Many Calgarians accused Stelmach of not paying enough attention to the problems there.
Government spending preceded election call
Stelmach has spent the last few months rolling out a series of plans on everything from affordable housing to dealing with a backlog of schools, hospitals and other construction projects.
His mantra — "Alberta has a plan" — is seen as a move to distance himself from Klein, who admitted in September 2006 that his government had been caught off guard by the explosive growth in the province.
Currently, the Progressive Conservatives have 60 seats in the legislature, the Liberals 16, the NDP 4 and the Wildrose Alliance Party 1, with one independent and one seat vacant.

Stelmach Tories in for tough battle

I somehow get the impression that the media are not all that in favor of Stelmach. He is not the choice of the kingmakers or the urban elite is my hunch. Nevertheless he should be able to get himself elected in the absence of any Great Helmsman from the opposition parties waiting in the wings.
Today perhaps Stelmach will announce the election having prepared the way last week with a veritable blizzard of goodies.
The results of the last election are at the bottom of the article. There are quite a few parties but most of them did not get any significant percentage of the vote.

Sunday » February 3 » 2008

Stelmach Tories in for tough battle
Rookie premier must grapple with hot-button issues, desire for change

Darcy Henton
The Edmonton Journal
Sunday, February 03, 2008
EDMONTON - A rash of hot-button issues, a yearning for change and an untested rookie premier could set the stage for one of the most closely contested Alberta elections in 15 years.
When Premier Ed Stelmach calls an election -- which could come as early as Monday -- political observers say he may have a real fight on his hands.
Facing criticism for the housing crisis, discontent over oilsands development, angst about royalty rates and unhappiness with Alberta's climate change plan, Stelmach, 56, will have no shortage of issues to address -- including convincing voters he is the man to lead the province into the future.
"There's a great mood for change," says University of Calgary political scientist David Taras. "There's a lot of anger. There's a lot of discontent. There's a lot of fuel on the floor, but will somebody throw a match?"
A Leger poll, commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald in late January, showed 46 per cent of Albertans want a change in government and 35 per cent want to continue the 36-plus-year Tory dynasty.
The poll also suggested only 29 per cent of Albertans think Stelmach would be the best premier and less than half approve of his performance -- nearly the same number who disapprove.
It's a far cry from the last election in 2004, when then premier Ralph Klein's popularity was running at 60 per cent and he was able to coast through a vague, lacklustre campaign that pundits dubbed "Kleinfeld" after the Seinfeld TV show about nothing.
But pundits say the days of "Ralpherendums" are over and Stelmach can't soar on the warm winds of Alberta's booming economy.
Faron Ellis, a political science professor at Lethbridge College, says Stelmach has to give Albertans a reason to vote the Conservatives back into office for the 11th consecutive time.
"I am not suggesting anything revolutionary or that radical change is needed, but there has to be something other than, 'You can trust us. We're the government.' There has to be something new in there."
Stelmach's communications director Paul Stanway says Albertans can be assured they won't be subjected to a lacklustre campaign.
"The premier has said, 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' will not be my campaign slogan," Stanway says. "Nobody is thinking about mailing this one in. This is going to be a real full-out effort."
Marv Moore, who ran the last four Tory election campaigns, says his party has little to fear from the opposition, but must mount a solid campaign based on sound policy and get its vote out.
"I don't think the Liberals or the NDP are exciting anybody too much. The real enemy is apathy among Conservative supporters. If they don't come out to vote, you don't win."
Moore, who is on the sidelines this campaign, believes the Tories can win two-thirds of the 83 seats if they fire up the electorate.
"If you want to get the people out to vote, you can't run a dull, quiet, boring campaign. You have to stir up a little excitement," he says. "That would be my approach this time around."
Seat projections provided by Alan Hall in a report from the Insight into Government newsletter suggest the Conservatives could boost their majority, rising to 65 to 78 seats from the current 60.
The projections are based on four polls by three different companies since last April. But the report warns that one consistent finding in recent months has been the strongly held opinion that the Conservatives have been in power too long.
Stanway says Stelmach won't take anything for granted. He will run "an old-fashioned campaign," riding a bus across the province and reminding Albertans he has done what he vowed to do when he took office in December 2006, Stanway says.
"His feeling right from the beginning is people don't take anything on faith anymore," Stanway says. "You have to prove to them that you actually mean what you say. He was very clear on wanting to assemble a record before going to the voters, and that's what we've been doing the past 12 months."
The Lamont-born farmer-turned-premier has taken on contentious issues such as the royalty framework, teachers' pension liability, municipal funding, regional planning and climate change during his time at the province's helm.
"He wanted to represent to people that he really does represent change," says Stanway.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, 53, scoffs at the notion that Stelmach, a veteran cabinet minister under Klein, can foster the kind of changes voters seem to want.
"I think Ed Stelmach's claim there is change from within rings hollow to almost everybody," he says.
NDP leader Brian Mason says it's time to take a fresh approach.
"Governments get tired. Governments get corrupt and every once in a while it's a good idea to change them around," says Mason.
"Someone once said: 'Governments, like underwear, should be changed regularly -- and for the same reason.' "
He says Stelmach fell short of implementing the recommendations from his task forces on housing and royalties.
"Every time Ed Stelmach takes a step, it's only half a step," says the former city councillor. "He says he is a change from Klein, but it's only half a change."
Taft says he likes his party's chances now that Klein has retired.
"I think Ralph was a legendary figure and he carried an awful lot of the Tory MLAs into office on his coattails," he says. "I think his absence opens up the playing field, but I don't underestimate Ed Stelmach. He's certainly no Ralph Klein, but he and his team are certainly more attentive."
Taras says Klein's popularity was good for 1,000 votes for the Tories in nearly every riding in the province in 2004, and 2,000 votes in previous elections.
"When you take Ralph out of the equation, there's a lot of ridings that will be really close," he says. "There's no similar love for Stelmach."
The Tories are expected to face tight battles in Calgary and Edmonton, but continue to have strong support outside the major centres.
While the Leger poll suggests only 26 per cent of Calgarians will cast ballots for the Tories, 35 per cent of Albertans living outside of Edmonton and Calgary still plan to vote for the party.
"My sense is rural Alberta will not let him fall," Taras says. "There may be places in rural Alberta which are safer than others, but on the whole, rural Alberta will come in behind him."
The Tories also have a significant financial edge in what Taras predicts will be mostly an "air war" campaign.
He thinks the Tories will blanket the province with positive advertising and frequent big announcements.
"Ultimately, the opposition parties don't have the money for the kind of campaign the Tories can launch," Taras says. "It's like they've come into a parking lot and it's a gang war and they have one hand tied behind their back."
The Tories outspent the Liberals by greater than an eight-to-one margin last election, pumping $2 million into their campaign.
But Tory party officials estimate 200,000 of their supporters didn't cast ballots in the 2004 election, resulting in the lowest voter turnout (44.7 per cent) in Alberta history.
A lot of them are still sitting on the fence, with the Leger poll recording a 27-per-cent undecided faction.
Lethbridge College's Ellis says he hasn't seen the renewal that Tories who sat out the last election were seeking.
"I don't think the Conservatives, probably to their detriment, will do anything too visionary," he says.
However, the Liberals didn't seem to capitalize on Stelmach's stumbles on royalties and climate change, he says.
Ellis doesn't expect the Green Party or the Wildrose Alliance to be major factors in the election because they don't have the money or organization and are too slow off the mark.
This is a high-stakes contest for Stelmach and Taft because the knives could come out for both of them if they don't do as well as expected, says the U of C's Taras.
"You run against expectations, and the Tories are used to massive victories. There could be a great deal of anger and division in the party unless he wins big."
With files from Jason Markusoff
dhenton@thejournal.canwest.com
Election 2004
The following are the results of the 2004 provincial election.
Percentage of vote and seats won:
- PC 46.8% 62
- Liberals 29.4% 16
- NDP 10.2% 4
- Alliance 8.7% 1
- Green 2.75% 0
- Socred 1.2% 0
- Separation 0.53% 0
- Alberta Party 0.28% 0
- Independents 0.11% 0
- Communist 0.01% 0
© The Edmonton Journal 2008

Copyright © 2008 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
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An Alberta Election Call Next Week?

Given all the goodies and purchase of urban politicians it would seem that whether the groundhog saw its shadow or not Albertans will be going to the polls soon. I guess Stelmach wants to have the election now in the winter before the Wild Roses have a chance to grow. This is from the Edmonton Sun.

February 1, 2008
Premier comes bearing gifts
Hands out big bucks on his way to the hustings
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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On Wednesday, he was Concrete Eddie - announcing a blizzard of schools, municipal projects and a 20-year capital plan. Yesterday, the premier turned into Compassionate Ed.
First, he announced in a speech to Edmonton's Downtown Rotary Club that he was bumping up Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped payments to $1,088 a month.
Then he promoted the government's program to give AISH recipients bridge financing to help them ease into the workforce.
"Every Albertan. no matter what their disability, wants to contribute to this province," he said.
But he wasn't finished, giving blueblood Rotarians a heads-up about today's announcement in which Tourism, Parks, Recreation and Culture Minister Hec Goudreau will put flesh on the bones of his Community Spirit Program, allowing any outfit with a valid charity registration to issue 50-cents-on-the-dollar tax credits for contributions over $200. Government will also match the donation with a grant.
'NEW CENTURY, NEW IDEAS'
"This is a new time and a new century that demands new ideas," Stelmach boomed, sounding just like a politician on the election stump, even though the election has yet to be called.
Then it was over to City Hall for a little unfinished business with Edmonton's prickly Mayor Stephen Mandel.
The last time Stelmach and Mandel shared a podium together was last fall, when the premier tried to give municipalities $11 billion in infrastructure cash, stretched over 10 years.
Mandel got into a snit over his unsubstantiated belief that Edmonton was being short-changed. That was downright embarrassing.
This week, Stelmach was handing out the first instalments of his Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) - like any good politician about to head for the hustings.
In Calgary, Mayor Dave Bronconnier rolled out the welcome wagon big time. Clearly his battle with the premier - in which his intervention in the Calgary-Elbow by-election cost the PCs the seat - is now long behind him.
Heck, Bronco even gave Stelmach a new Calgary City Hall wallet with instructions on how to bring in more money on the day that Eddie came armed with two giant cheques, worth $153 million.
The same giant cheques - worth $96 million - showed up at Edmonton City Hall yesterday.
Stelmach beamed about the Alberta government's "very important partnership with the City of Edmonton," while no mention was made about the attack ads that Mandel took out when the MSI program was being unveiled.
Stelmach talked about the "close working relationship" he has with Mandel, and he kept a straight face doing it, although he admitted there was a "fair amount of discussion" while the deal was being negotiated.
Stelmach even bought into Mandel's dubious plan to turn surplus school lands - now being used for slow-pitch diamonds and soccer fields - into subsidized row housing.
The premier called the plan a "tremendous idea" and promised to make surplus provincial land available, giving a boost to Mandel and Edmonton's loony leftist council's idea of an affordable housing strategy.
Alberta PC candidates might not like what they hear at the doorsteps when the voters - who weren't exactly Tory friendly in the last provincial election - learn that their neighbourhood parks are going to be turned into medium-density tract housing.
GRACIOUS TO A POINT
Mandel played the gracious host - up to a point.
First, he praised Ed who "true to form, delivered on that (funding) promise."
Then he decided to play Howie Ball. "It's not easy delivering to municipalities," he said. "Sometimes they're not as nice to deal with as they could be.
"My position hasn't changed," Mandel said, returning to his belief that Edmonton was a victim.
This nastiness has apparently carried through to the cash.
While Bronconnier has made several high-profile announcements about where the Eddie money is going, Mandel has been strangely silent.
"We can give you a list if you like," he said.
He did call Stelmach a "great guy" and said "we appreciate the money."
"We've had some differences, but I don't think this is the day we want to rehash old issues."
Seems to me the Edmonton mayor just did that.