Sask. Election Predictions

Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Saskatchewan Election Predictions

This is from http://devliegerd.blogspot.com/2007/11/saskatchewan-election-predictions.html. The prediction still may be a bit optimistic for the NDP. I will post my own predictions next.

With the election tomorrow, it is high time that I got my predictions out. Besides, I am aiming to beat Curtis Brown’s success rate, which currently is better than the 83% success rate I had in predicting the Ontario election. The Ontario NDP failed me that time, but I am confident that the Saskatchewan NDP will come through. That said, I hang my head in shame and side with the polls: Saskatchewan Party victory.

The most recent poll shows that the NDP is not dead yet, and I am hoping that previous polls were calling into rural Saskatchewan which was inflating the Sk. Party vote, but I sense that Saskatchewanians are resting their NDP hearts. However, the NDP will still form a strong opposition.

My prediction is: Sk. Party – 33; NDP – 25; Lib – 0

The following seats will swing from NDP to Sk. Party: Meadow Lake; Regina – Wascana Plains; Regina – South; Saskatoon – Eastview; Yorkton

The good news for the NDP is that they will hold most of their seats while they are bringing in much new blood. However, the loss of incumbents (especially in Regina South and Yorkton) hurt their chances of forming government. They also stand to lose votes in Saskatoon and this will make Judy Junor’s Eastview seat vulnerable. If it is a bad night for the NDP they could stand to lose even more in Saskatoon as the Liberal vote collapses and goes to the Sk Party. What the NDP needs to do is get as many voters out as possible. I sense there is a real risk that supporters may stay home, while a determined Sk. Party vote will shake seats loose.

Seats to watch in this election: Humboldt; Lloydminster; Meadow Lake; Moose Jaw North; PA Carlton; Regina Qu’Appelle; Regina – Wascana Plains; Regina – South; Saskatchewan Rivers; Saskatoon Northwest; Saskatoon Greystone; Saskatoon Southeast; Saskatoon – Eastview; Yorkton