Monday, October 13, 2008

Ekos poll Oct 13, DemSpace seat projection Oct 12

Here is the most recent Ekos poll:

Conservatives 34

Liberals 26

NDP 18

Green 11

Bloc 10

Here is the accompanying text:


Conservatives Headed to Victory; Shifts Continue in Ontario and Quebec

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals as the Thanksgiving Day weekend nears its close and the start of polling is less than a day away.

There is no sign of any significant break from the pattern of the past week. The Conservatives appear to be set to win the election Tuesday, though on the numbers, a majority seems much less likely than another minority.

Conservative supporters do, however, seem more determined than Liberals to go to the polls on Tuesday. And NDP supporters are growing less likely to turn out. Both of these could be significant for deciding the precise level of Liberal success on Tuesday.
The Liberals will likely retain their position as the official opposition – something that seemed threatened at times in this election, mainly by the burgeoning strength of the BQ.

However, there is still some shifting going on among the electorate. The percentage of undecided voters, while fairly small at 8%, has actually inched up in recent days. In Quebec, an astonishing number of respondents – nearly a quarter – say they are “likely” to change their vote intention before going to the polling station.

In the two battleground provinces in which the election will likely be decided – Quebec and Ontario – there continue to be some small but significant shifts.

The Conservatives seem to have reached their floor in Quebec and rebounded somewhat, having reclaimed their second-place spot in the province, albeit far behind the first-place BQ.

In Ontario, the Liberals have been inching upward, and have been marginally ahead of the Conservatives for a couple of days now.

The Liberals also appear to have recovered in British Columbia vis-à-vis the NDP, who have lost their edge, though the Liberals often poll better than they ballot in the province. The Conservatives remain the comfortable frontrunner in the province.

“We are seeing some slight downward pressure on both NDP and Green Party support at the moment as some of their former supporters think about whom they want to win,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “This appears to be behind the Liberals slight improvement. There are still many supporters of these two parties who are considering their options, but time is running out of course.”

Comment: The Conservative numbers are far from a majority. A projection by Democratic space a day earlier gives us a ball park idea of what the new parliament could look like. It is not much different from the old one! The first figure in parentheses after seats is the popular vote. The second figure is the seats held at dissolution. There were four vacancies. 155 seats are needed for a majority so the Conservatives are not that close. Of course we could be in for an October surprise at the polls either way! Or maybe Layton will be prime minister..haha..!

Conservatives 128 (33.8) (127)

Liberals 92 (28.9) (95)

NDP 34 (18.6) (30)

Green 0 (8.4) (1)

Bloc 52 (9.3) (48)

Ind. 3 (1.0) (3)

The NDP percentage is going down a bit according to this poll but their seats go up by four. The Bloc that was supposed to be going down the tubes has gained four seats as well. The Liberals and Conservatives hardly change much. Will Dion be hailed as a survivor or tossed overboard? My bet is that he will be tossed overboard. Harper lost his gamble. Doesn't this reflect on his leadership abilities. This guy called an unneccesary election violating his own legislation but then he touts himself as a steady hand at the tiller. We can expect him to pull more stunts as soon as parliament is back in session.

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