Ekos poll for October 2

The numbers are not changing drastically but over the last while the Conservatives have drifted down to a degree that we are almost assured of a minority government. The gap between them and the Liberals has shrunk somewhat. The results of the French debate show that Harper hasn't much chance of making a big breakthrough in Quebec and the polls put the Bloc well ahead.

This is from the Ekos site. There is more detail at the site. Here is a summary of the poll for October 2:

Conservatives 34

Liberals 25

NDP 19

Green 11

Bloc 10

Here is their commentary:

DAILY TRACKING - OCTOBER 2, 2008-->
Room for Breakout Shrinking on Eve of English Debate

[OTTAWA – October 2, 2008] – All the parties are holding to their lanes, and the prospects of any of them making a dramatic shift in the remaining 12 days of the campaign are ebbing away as the number of undecided voters and potential switchers falls.

“The English debate tonight may be the last chance for the leaders to break out of the pattern set in this campaign so far,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “but it is also something of a faint hope, as Canadians are settling in and getting comfortable with their current vote choice.”

The Conservatives’ dreams of doubling their representation in Quebec, which seemed plausible just three weeks ago, now seem extremely unlikely. The Bloc Québécois is now the commanding leader in Quebec – a position it has held in elections since 1993.

“Last night’s debate was inevitably a four-on-one pile-on the Prime Minister,” Graves said. “He did what he could to look calm and prime ministerial. But that is unlikely to be enough to turn around his prospects in Quebec. Gilles Duceppe, meanwhile, was on home turf, in his native language, and if anything consolidated his party’s support.”

As Conservative strength ebbs in Quebec, and to a less dramatic extent on the West Coast, the party is losing a little of its appeal across income groups. Just two weeks ago, they could boast that they were almost as popular with Canadians making under $40,000 a year income as with those making over $80,000. No more. Conservative supporters are now skewed towards the better-off.

The Liberals continue to track far behind the Conservatives in the latest EKOS tracking poll. At times they have edged abreast of the Conservatives in Ontario, but have been unable to break through. The best prospect for the Liberals to charge ahead from where they are now would be if Canadians believed the Tories were about to form a majority, and the Liberals were able to capture the ABC (Anyone but Conservative) vote. Many New Democrats and Green Party supporters would consider switching in that situation.

But a consensus is emerging among the polls and the media that a Conservative majority is less likely than it seemed at the beginning of the campaign, and that means many voters will not feel they need to make a difficult “tactical” choice to support the Liberals.

That having been said, there are still some “loose fish” among the electorate. Women, and Generation X-ers (25-44 years of age), are less firmly decided than other Canadians. Watch for the parties to hone their pitches on these demographic groups in the last days of the campaign.