Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Quebec election polls

This is from the Globe and Mail.
If the ADQ declines too much Charest could very well get a majority. As with Harper, Charest is trying to buy votes in this case by offering "bribes" to Quebec City where there are ADQ seats.

First poll shows francophone support for Liberals declining

Globe and Mail Update
November 11, 2008 at 1:58 PM EST
Quebeckers have experienced a “magical” moment over the past year that has united them says Liberal Leader Jean Charest who believes that his role in promoting Quebec City's 400th anniversary celebrations allowed voters to appreciate his leadership heading into the Dec. 8 election.
But the first poll of the campaign released today indicated that the magic may be wearing-off with francophone voters showing support for the Liberals gradually declining.
“I don't agree with that,” Mr. Charest said Tuesday. “It's not just about me. Let Quebeckers make the choice on the eighth of December. I've never been happier in the job. Last year was magical for Quebec.”
A Léger Marketing poll for the Journal de Montréal, the Montreal Gazette and TVA television network showed the Liberals at 41 per cent, six points ahead of the Parti Québécois at 35 per cent. Action Démocratique du Québec trails badly at 14-per cent.
However, the crucial francophone vote predominant in at least 80 of the province's 125 ridings had the PQ moving ahead of the Liberals after the two parties started off the campaign in a virtual tie. The PQ had the support of 39 per cent of the francophone voters compared with 34 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the ADQ.
The Liberal government approval rating was also down, but remained strong in the early days of the campaign dropping from 62 per cent before the election was called to 55 per cent in the Léger Marketing poll. The poll was conducted between Nov. 7 and Nov. 9 and surveyed 1001 voters.
Mr. Charest warned against reading too much in public opinion polls saying that in the last federal election campaign many pollsters failed to accurately predict voter preferences.
The poll suggests that with the drop in ADQ Leader Mario Dumont's support, the Liberals could be on the cuff of a majority government but have not yet capitalized on his misfortunes.
One region where the Liberals need to do make major inroads at Mr. Dumont's expense if they hope to win a majority is in Quebec City. The ADQ won seven ridings in the area in last year's election.
Mr. Charest announced Tuesday a Liberal government would support an eventual bid by Quebec City to host the Winter Olympics. He argued that for such a bid to be successful, the city needed adequate sporting facilities.
He promised to invest $50-million in a multifunctional arena as well as $9-million to be built a roof on the city's speed skating facility. A Liberal government would also be open to investing funds in developing a site for international skiing competitions.
“Whether or not it obtains the Winter Olympics, it should be a city that is able to host major sporting events including speed skating events, winter sports events with a new arena and world cup skiing events,” Mr. Charest said. “It would allow the city to distinguish itself and to attract major sporting events.”
Mr. Charest also urged the federal government to publicly support the Ontario-Quebec initiative to build a high speed train service in the Quebec City-Windsor corridor, a project he said he put on the table when he met this week with Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the First Ministers meeting in Ottawa.
“I told Mr. Harper that if we are going to move ahead with this project he needed to come and say he supported it,” Mr. Charest said

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