Charest on track to win third straight mandate.

The article does not say whether Charest will achieve a majority but the polls suggest perhaps he will. However, like the stock market there is a lot of volatility in the environment these days! Harper will probably strike out in Quebec after his recent remarks if an election is called early next year. However, the Liberals are likely to cave and abandon the Coalition I imagine. This is from the Globe and Mail.


Charest on track to win third straight mandate
Liberals will prevail despite turmoil in Ottawa, poll says
RHÉAL SÉGUIN
From Friday's Globe and Mail
December 5, 2008 at 6:00 AM EST
QUEBEC CITY — Jean Charest looks set to become the first Quebec Premier to win three consecutive mandates since Maurice Duplessis a half century ago.
The latest public opinion poll, taken over the past week as the crisis in Ottawa unfolded, suggests Quebeckers are seeking stability and clear government leadership as the economy worsens.
Monday's vote will be a test of the consequences of the extraordinary drama that played out in Ottawa. A firestorm of rhetoric, brought on by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's framing of the proposed NDP-Liberal coalition as nothing more than a backdoor entry to power for the separatist Bloc Québécois, has dominated headlines, knocking the provincial election lower in newscasts.
But, for now, with 72 hours to go, the polling for La Presse suggests Mr. Charest will win at the cost of the Parti Québécois.

The poll surveyed 1,001 Quebeckers between Nov. 28 and Dec. 3 and showed the Liberals leading with 45-per-cent support, comfortably ahead of the Parti Québécois at 29 per cent and the Action démocratique du Québec, trailing at 15 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Green Party was backed by 6 per cent of those surveyed and the left-wing, pro-sovereignty Québec Solidaire by 5 per cent. A poll this size is considered accurate within 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The Liberals and the PQ were neck and neck among crucial francophone voters, which determine the fate of at least 80 of the province's 125 ridings, with Mr. Charest attracting 35 per cent of francophone support, slightly less than 36 per cent for the PQ.
However, the Liberal government's approval rating continued to drop, falling from 51 per cent to 48 per cent.
That hasn't stopped voters from considering Mr. Charest as the best leader for the province, picked by 43 per cent of those polled against 24 per cent for PQ Leader Pauline Marois and only 13 per cent for ADQ Leader Mario Dumont.
Support for Mr. Dumont has barely moved throughout the campaign. The party could be devastated after winning official opposition status in the 2007 election, unless Mr. Dumont is able to mount a last-minute surge. But with 70 per cent saying their choice was decided, Mr. Dumont's challenge appeared insurmountable, especially when the majority of those surveyed, 54 per cent, expressed little interest in the campaign.
Despite holding a comfortable lead, Liberals still remain concerned over the impact Mr. Harper's relentless attacks might have on nationalist voters.
Mr. Charest called for cooler heads to prevail by siding with the 1.3 million Quebeckers who voted for the Bloc Québécois in the past federal election. Mr. Harper's bare-knuckle political gamesmanship was seen as threatening to undermine Mr. Charest's appeal to nationalist voters.
"All Quebeckers deserve respect. In our democracy, we must respect the choices made by voters. ... If they chose to elect Bloc Québécois members, that choice must be respected," Mr. Charest said yesterday.
Mr. Harper continued to insist that no Canadian government should co-operate with a party seeking the breakup of the country. Those remarks prompted Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe to accuse Mr. Harper of reducing his elected members to second-class MPs in Parliament.
"Mr. Harper clearly stated that the elected officials in Quebec don't have the same value as the ones in the rest of Canada," Mr. Duceppe said yesterday.

Quebec election polls

This is from the Globe and Mail.
If the ADQ declines too much Charest could very well get a majority. As with Harper, Charest is trying to buy votes in this case by offering "bribes" to Quebec City where there are ADQ seats.


First poll shows francophone support for Liberals declining


RHÉAL SÉGUIN
Globe and Mail Update
November 11, 2008 at 1:58 PM EST
Quebeckers have experienced a “magical” moment over the past year that has united them says Liberal Leader Jean Charest who believes that his role in promoting Quebec City's 400th anniversary celebrations allowed voters to appreciate his leadership heading into the Dec. 8 election.
But the first poll of the campaign released today indicated that the magic may be wearing-off with francophone voters showing support for the Liberals gradually declining.
“I don't agree with that,” Mr. Charest said Tuesday. “It's not just about me. Let Quebeckers make the choice on the eighth of December. I've never been happier in the job. Last year was magical for Quebec.”
A Léger Marketing poll for the Journal de Montréal, the Montreal Gazette and TVA television network showed the Liberals at 41 per cent, six points ahead of the Parti Québécois at 35 per cent. Action Démocratique du Québec trails badly at 14-per cent.
However, the crucial francophone vote predominant in at least 80 of the province's 125 ridings had the PQ moving ahead of the Liberals after the two parties started off the campaign in a virtual tie. The PQ had the support of 39 per cent of the francophone voters compared with 34 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the ADQ.
The Liberal government approval rating was also down, but remained strong in the early days of the campaign dropping from 62 per cent before the election was called to 55 per cent in the Léger Marketing poll. The poll was conducted between Nov. 7 and Nov. 9 and surveyed 1001 voters.
Mr. Charest warned against reading too much in public opinion polls saying that in the last federal election campaign many pollsters failed to accurately predict voter preferences.
The poll suggests that with the drop in ADQ Leader Mario Dumont's support, the Liberals could be on the cuff of a majority government but have not yet capitalized on his misfortunes.
One region where the Liberals need to do make major inroads at Mr. Dumont's expense if they hope to win a majority is in Quebec City. The ADQ won seven ridings in the area in last year's election.
Mr. Charest announced Tuesday a Liberal government would support an eventual bid by Quebec City to host the Winter Olympics. He argued that for such a bid to be successful, the city needed adequate sporting facilities.
He promised to invest $50-million in a multifunctional arena as well as $9-million to be built a roof on the city's speed skating facility. A Liberal government would also be open to investing funds in developing a site for international skiing competitions.
“Whether or not it obtains the Winter Olympics, it should be a city that is able to host major sporting events including speed skating events, winter sports events with a new arena and world cup skiing events,” Mr. Charest said. “It would allow the city to distinguish itself and to attract major sporting events.”
Mr. Charest also urged the federal government to publicly support the Ontario-Quebec initiative to build a high speed train service in the Quebec City-Windsor corridor, a project he said he put on the table when he met this week with Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the First Ministers meeting in Ottawa.
“I told Mr. Harper that if we are going to move ahead with this project he needed to come and say he supported it,” Mr. Charest said