I somehow get the impression that the media are not all that in favor of Stelmach. He is not the choice of the kingmakers or the urban elite is my hunch. Nevertheless he should be able to get himself elected in the absence of any Great Helmsman from the opposition parties waiting in the wings.
Today perhaps Stelmach will announce the election having prepared the way last week with a veritable blizzard of goodies.
The results of the last election are at the bottom of the article. There are quite a few parties but most of them did not get any significant percentage of the vote.
Sunday » February 3 » 2008
Stelmach Tories in for tough battle
Rookie premier must grapple with hot-button issues, desire for change
Darcy Henton
The Edmonton Journal
Sunday, February 03, 2008
EDMONTON - A rash of hot-button issues, a yearning for change and an untested rookie premier could set the stage for one of the most closely contested Alberta elections in 15 years.
When Premier Ed Stelmach calls an election -- which could come as early as Monday -- political observers say he may have a real fight on his hands.
Facing criticism for the housing crisis, discontent over oilsands development, angst about royalty rates and unhappiness with Alberta's climate change plan, Stelmach, 56, will have no shortage of issues to address -- including convincing voters he is the man to lead the province into the future.
"There's a great mood for change," says University of Calgary political scientist David Taras. "There's a lot of anger. There's a lot of discontent. There's a lot of fuel on the floor, but will somebody throw a match?"
A Leger poll, commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald in late January, showed 46 per cent of Albertans want a change in government and 35 per cent want to continue the 36-plus-year Tory dynasty.
The poll also suggested only 29 per cent of Albertans think Stelmach would be the best premier and less than half approve of his performance -- nearly the same number who disapprove.
It's a far cry from the last election in 2004, when then premier Ralph Klein's popularity was running at 60 per cent and he was able to coast through a vague, lacklustre campaign that pundits dubbed "Kleinfeld" after the Seinfeld TV show about nothing.
But pundits say the days of "Ralpherendums" are over and Stelmach can't soar on the warm winds of Alberta's booming economy.
Faron Ellis, a political science professor at Lethbridge College, says Stelmach has to give Albertans a reason to vote the Conservatives back into office for the 11th consecutive time.
"I am not suggesting anything revolutionary or that radical change is needed, but there has to be something other than, 'You can trust us. We're the government.' There has to be something new in there."
Stelmach's communications director Paul Stanway says Albertans can be assured they won't be subjected to a lacklustre campaign.
"The premier has said, 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' will not be my campaign slogan," Stanway says. "Nobody is thinking about mailing this one in. This is going to be a real full-out effort."
Marv Moore, who ran the last four Tory election campaigns, says his party has little to fear from the opposition, but must mount a solid campaign based on sound policy and get its vote out.
"I don't think the Liberals or the NDP are exciting anybody too much. The real enemy is apathy among Conservative supporters. If they don't come out to vote, you don't win."
Moore, who is on the sidelines this campaign, believes the Tories can win two-thirds of the 83 seats if they fire up the electorate.
"If you want to get the people out to vote, you can't run a dull, quiet, boring campaign. You have to stir up a little excitement," he says. "That would be my approach this time around."
Seat projections provided by Alan Hall in a report from the Insight into Government newsletter suggest the Conservatives could boost their majority, rising to 65 to 78 seats from the current 60.
The projections are based on four polls by three different companies since last April. But the report warns that one consistent finding in recent months has been the strongly held opinion that the Conservatives have been in power too long.
Stanway says Stelmach won't take anything for granted. He will run "an old-fashioned campaign," riding a bus across the province and reminding Albertans he has done what he vowed to do when he took office in December 2006, Stanway says.
"His feeling right from the beginning is people don't take anything on faith anymore," Stanway says. "You have to prove to them that you actually mean what you say. He was very clear on wanting to assemble a record before going to the voters, and that's what we've been doing the past 12 months."
The Lamont-born farmer-turned-premier has taken on contentious issues such as the royalty framework, teachers' pension liability, municipal funding, regional planning and climate change during his time at the province's helm.
"He wanted to represent to people that he really does represent change," says Stanway.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, 53, scoffs at the notion that Stelmach, a veteran cabinet minister under Klein, can foster the kind of changes voters seem to want.
"I think Ed Stelmach's claim there is change from within rings hollow to almost everybody," he says.
NDP leader Brian Mason says it's time to take a fresh approach.
"Governments get tired. Governments get corrupt and every once in a while it's a good idea to change them around," says Mason.
"Someone once said: 'Governments, like underwear, should be changed regularly -- and for the same reason.' "
He says Stelmach fell short of implementing the recommendations from his task forces on housing and royalties.
"Every time Ed Stelmach takes a step, it's only half a step," says the former city councillor. "He says he is a change from Klein, but it's only half a change."
Taft says he likes his party's chances now that Klein has retired.
"I think Ralph was a legendary figure and he carried an awful lot of the Tory MLAs into office on his coattails," he says. "I think his absence opens up the playing field, but I don't underestimate Ed Stelmach. He's certainly no Ralph Klein, but he and his team are certainly more attentive."
Taras says Klein's popularity was good for 1,000 votes for the Tories in nearly every riding in the province in 2004, and 2,000 votes in previous elections.
"When you take Ralph out of the equation, there's a lot of ridings that will be really close," he says. "There's no similar love for Stelmach."
The Tories are expected to face tight battles in Calgary and Edmonton, but continue to have strong support outside the major centres.
While the Leger poll suggests only 26 per cent of Calgarians will cast ballots for the Tories, 35 per cent of Albertans living outside of Edmonton and Calgary still plan to vote for the party.
"My sense is rural Alberta will not let him fall," Taras says. "There may be places in rural Alberta which are safer than others, but on the whole, rural Alberta will come in behind him."
The Tories also have a significant financial edge in what Taras predicts will be mostly an "air war" campaign.
He thinks the Tories will blanket the province with positive advertising and frequent big announcements.
"Ultimately, the opposition parties don't have the money for the kind of campaign the Tories can launch," Taras says. "It's like they've come into a parking lot and it's a gang war and they have one hand tied behind their back."
The Tories outspent the Liberals by greater than an eight-to-one margin last election, pumping $2 million into their campaign.
But Tory party officials estimate 200,000 of their supporters didn't cast ballots in the 2004 election, resulting in the lowest voter turnout (44.7 per cent) in Alberta history.
A lot of them are still sitting on the fence, with the Leger poll recording a 27-per-cent undecided faction.
Lethbridge College's Ellis says he hasn't seen the renewal that Tories who sat out the last election were seeking.
"I don't think the Conservatives, probably to their detriment, will do anything too visionary," he says.
However, the Liberals didn't seem to capitalize on Stelmach's stumbles on royalties and climate change, he says.
Ellis doesn't expect the Green Party or the Wildrose Alliance to be major factors in the election because they don't have the money or organization and are too slow off the mark.
This is a high-stakes contest for Stelmach and Taft because the knives could come out for both of them if they don't do as well as expected, says the U of C's Taras.
"You run against expectations, and the Tories are used to massive victories. There could be a great deal of anger and division in the party unless he wins big."
With files from Jason Markusoff
dhenton@thejournal.canwest.com
Election 2004
The following are the results of the 2004 provincial election.
Percentage of vote and seats won:
- PC 46.8% 62
- Liberals 29.4% 16
- NDP 10.2% 4
- Alliance 8.7% 1
- Green 2.75% 0
- Socred 1.2% 0
- Separation 0.53% 0
- Alberta Party 0.28% 0
- Independents 0.11% 0
- Communist 0.01% 0
© The Edmonton Journal 2008
Copyright © 2008 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
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