Wild Rose party scores convincing upset in Calgary against Conservatives

The victory for the Wild Rose party in the Calgary-Foothills constituency shows that small-c conservatives still have a good grip on parts of the city. However, the Progressive Conservatives came a dismal third in a riding they held since 1971,

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The Wild Rose party is an offshoot from the Progressive Conservatives (PC) formed when many conservatives became fed up with the performance of the Progressive Conservatives. Polls showed that Wild Rose would win the 2012 April provincial election. The polls were wrong and the Progressive Conservatives won handily. To add insult to injury, in December of last year, the leader of the party, Danielle Smith, and eight other members of the party crossed the floor and joined the Progressive Conservative caucus. Only five members were left in the Wild Rose party in the legislature. This did not result in the demise of the party as many had predicted.

While the NDP led by Rachel Notley in a May election swept to a convincing victory over both conservative parties winning 53 seats, the Wild Rose rose to 21 seats from five, eclipsing the Progressive Conservatives who managed to hold only 10. The new leader of the PCs, Jim Prentice, managed to hold on to his seat in the Calgary-Foothills riding, but he resigned because of the dismal showing of the party under his leadership. This resulted in the present by-election.

The NDP had a high-profile candidate, Bob Hawkesworth, in the riding and the party sent in experienced campaigners from Edmonton to help out. The premier, Rachel Notley even spent some time campaigning door-to-door with Hawkesworth. However, the party managed only a second place finish at 26 percent of the vote. This was quite a bit better than the 3.75 percent it drew in a by-election in October of 2014 but far from the 32 percent it achieved in the May election against then-premier Jim Prentice, coming close to unseating him. However, the NDP faces a grim economic situation with the NDP Finance Minister Joe Ceci announcing the province is headed for a whopping $5.9 billion deficit due to the low prices of oil and reduced royalty revenues among other problems. The economic malaise may reflect negatively on the new NDP government.

The Wild Rose candidate, Prasad Panda, has been a loyal Wild Rose member. He ran for the party twice in the past and lost. Three times and he won. Panda won with about 38 percent of the vote. Panda won by a comfortable margin of more than 1,600 votes. Turnout was low at approximately 39 percent of eligible voters though good for a by-election. Panda is a senior manager at Suncor. He won the nomination against two other candidates back on August 11 with a whopping 770 party members voting.

The new leader of the Wildrose Party, Brian Jean, now can boast that the Wild Rose party could very well be the preferred choice of conservative voters over the Progressive Conservatives. He can also boast an urban seat for a party that is predominantly rural. Jean noted: "I don't think they've ever placed under 40 per cent in this riding. It's the strongest riding they have in Alberta and they've lost it. I think it clearly indicates where Albertans are going and they're going towards a Wildrose future." The PCs did garner under 40 percent of the vote before, but only once in 1989 when the premier lost his own riding even though the Progressive Conservatives won a majority. In this by-election the PCs came third with only 21 percent of the vote less than half of what they usually get and well behind the second place NDP.

No doubt there will be attempts to have the two conservative parties unite again to defeat the NDP next election. However, Wild Rose members may not be anxious to join up with the Conservatives any time soon after their recent experiences. They may believe and perhaps correctly that they can win on their own and that Conservative voters will vote for them during the next elections. The provincial PC brand is badly damaged. I append a right-wing "Rebel" video on the election results.

Progressive Conservatives win majority again in Alberta

From the polls it looked as if the Wildrose party might win a minority or even majority government. However the polls were wrong. In fact the popular vote was running at almost 44 per cent for the PCs and just around 36 per cent for the Wildrose as I am writing this at just about ten thirty PM central time.

The CBC has just declared that there will be a majority Conservative government even though many ridings are still too close to declare who is elected. But the figures show the situation: The Conservatives are leading in 60 seats the Wildrose in 19 the NDP in 4 and the Liberals in 4. The NDP has doubled their numbers if they actually win whereas the Liberals seem to have lost several seats.

Some Liberal voters may have decided to vote PC to keep the Wildrose out but the NDP vote percentage held. Over the weekend many who earlier intended to vote for the Wildrose must have changed their mind or perhaps the undecided voters chose to vote for the Progressive Conservatives. I did not think that the strategic voting campaign was working but perhaps it did have some effect although not on New Democratic Party voters. The Conservatives have been in power in Alberta for over 40 years.

UPDATE : Results here as of April 24th
Progressive Conservatives elected in 61 seats and leading in one, Wildrose Party elected in 17, NDP elected in 4 and Liberals elected in 4. Popular vote:: PC 43.9 , Wildrose 34.5, NDP 9.8, Liberal 9.6.

Final polls show Wildrose party still leading in Alberta

While there has been a last minute attempt to persuade those in the center and the left to strategically vote for the Progressive Conservatives to keep out the scary further right Wildrose party there is little evidence it is working as far as polls are concerned. However, as the saying goes it is the final poll at the ballot box that counts.

The very latest polls can be found here at the CBC with a graph showing the historical trends as well. A poll by Leger on the 18th shows the following: Progressive Conservatives 36, Liberals 9 NDP(left) 10 and Wildrose 42. These are vote percentages.

The last poll I can find on April 20 shows: Progressive Conservatives 33, Liberals 11 NDP 11 and Wild Rose 41. There does not seem to be any shift to the Conservatives from the NDP or Liberals so the strategic voting campaign seems to be going nowhere.

For more details on the campaign and the positions of the parties see this CBC report.. Alberta is an oil rich province and has always elected various right wing governments in recent years. The province is dominated by oil interests but there is a great deal of ranching in some rural areas. It is perhaps seen as a sort of Texas north!

Wildrose may be poised to defeat Progressive Conservative dynasty in Alberta

An article in the Globe and Mail argues that the Progressive Conservatives may go down to defeat because they have ignored a central tenet of the the party's success under Peter Lougheed who first brought the party to power more than forty years ago.

While Lougheed was moderately progressive as a conservative he paid attention to his back benchers. He consulted them constantly and on occasion even let them overrule cabinet decisions. It worked to keep harmony for the most part.

However in recent years some back benchers especially in some rural areas have felt left out. Even more dramatic some of the oil patch supporters have been miffed that a former premier Ed Stelmach raised royalties.

The problem as the Globe article sees it is that the Progressive Conservatives had huge support on the right so they tried to keep the left at Bay. In order to do so they adopted more liberal policies that alienated their base. This is a common tactic for parties to remain in power. In the U.S. the Democratic party moves right because the left in the Democratic party have no where to go. The Conservatives moved left slightly to attract and keep votes from going to the Liberals and NDP. However the tactic has backfired and disgruntled conservatives formed the Wildrose party.

While Peter Lougheed the patriarch of the Progressive Conservative party continues to support the party and its leader Alison Redford many federal Conservatives support the Wildrose. The former chief of staff for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper Tom Flanagan not only supports the Wildrose Party but is manager of Danielle Smith's the Wildrose leader's campaign. We will know on Monday if the Wildroses are more than just a thorn in the side of the ruling Progressive Conservatives.

Former Alberta premier Lougheed supports sagging Tories

Peter Lougheed a former premier of the province of Alberta threw his support behind the Progressive Conservative Party and its leader Alison Redford in the upcoming election. The Conservatives are being out polled by the upstart Wildrose party also on the right of the political spectrum.

Lougheed noted:"This is a harder campaign...because we’ve been there for 40 years and obviously these are difficult and challenging times." The Conservatives have been characterising the Wildrose party as the party from the past with an agenda set by old white guys. Now the Conservatives have the support of an old 83 year old patriarch white guy from the past.

Lougheed became premier in 1971 defeating another right wing party Social Credit. That party had itself ruled Alberta for decades. Now another right wing party is hoping to knock out the Conservatives.

The article here claims that the Conservatives have been trailing or running neck-and-neck.. However recent polls put Wildrose far ahead.. See this site.. As you can see the most recent poll puts the Wildrose party at 46 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives at 29.. There are several other recent polls that put Wild Rose far ahead. The Wildrose leader's campaign has promoted free votes in the legislature so that representatives can represent the opinions of their constituents and also citizen sponsored referenda. The program has popular appeal as a return to grass roots democracy. For much more see the full article.

Seat Projections: There are seat projections at this site. The most recent projections give the NDP 5 seats, Progressive Conservatives 29 seats and Wildrose party 52 seats. Obviously the Conservatives need to turn things around.

In Alberta election Progressive Conservatives attack Wildrose on race, age issues

In the Alberta election the long ruling Progressive Conservatives are trailing in the polls against the Wildrose party. Both are on the right and both have women as leaders. In desperation the ruling right wing party is accusing their opponents of having an agenda that is being set by old white guys.

While it is true that Danielle Smith's Wildrose party does have more support among men than women, it is also true that those old white guys elected a woman as leader. In Calgary where the Wildrose has much more support than in Edmonton old white guys must have helped elect a Muslim mayor Naheed Nenshi. The city is known more for the Calgary stampede than for electing minorities to office but nevertheless it is a fact! He was elected because he was young, has lots of ideas and was pro-business!

Tom Olsen a Tory strategist said:"I'll tell you exactly what I'm saying: This is the party of yesterday. This is the party of the middle-aged male who has lost control of the Progressive Conservatives because they have moved forward." The Wildrose house leader Rob Anderson said the Progressive Conservatives sound hysterical:"They sound utterly hysterical. It's literally like watching grown men and women in tinfoil hats running around yelling: 'The end is near! The end is near!'"Danielle and the caucus have been clear from the day Danielle was elected leader: the Wildrose will not be legislating on any of these contentious moral issues, period."

The Conservatives have even carried the race age issues into their newspaper ads. Perhaps the campaign will work but I would not be surprised if it backfires. After all it is the Progressive Conservatives who have long been the establishment not the Widlrose party. For more see this article.

Wildrose party surges ahead in Alberta provincial election

The incumbent Progressive Conservative party is falling further behind the Wildrose party in recent polls. Both parties are on the right and both are led by women.

A Leger Marketing survey shows the Wildrose party gaining support in the second week of the campaign. Wildrose led by Danielle Smith received 41 per cent to 34 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives led by Alison Redford. The leftist New Democratic Party has only 12 per cent and behind them the Liberals have just 10 per cent. In Edmonton the NDP was doing well at 20 per cent versus about 7 per cent in Calgary.

There are still 22 per cent of voters undecided. The undecided voters were leaning equally toward the Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives. The are still over two weeks left in the campaign.

The polling reveals a split between the two largest cities Edmonton and Calgary. The Conservatives continue to lead the Wildrose in Edmonton in the north but are far behind in Calgary in the south of the province.

In Edmonton the PC's have 37 per cent while the Wildrose has only 25 per cent. In Calgary the situation reverses with Wildrose aat 47 per cent and PCs at just 34 per cent. Rural areas are overwhelmingly for the Wildrose at 54 per cent and just 30 for the PCs. The situation has changed dramatically just within a couple of months. Earlier Redford was by far the most popular choice of leader when compared to Danielle Smith. Only 3 out of ten voters polled wanted the present Conservative government to be reelected.

The Wildrose leader actually receives more support from men than women. 35 per cent to 22 percent. Redford has about equal support. The full report is here. For more on the election and issues see this article. Both leading parties are promising goodies. Alberta is one of the richer provinces as it has vast oil resources. Conservative parties have ruled the province for decades.

Wildrose Party campaign bus feature soft porn of Danielle Smith

 Alberta tends to be an all or nothing state as far as parties are concerned usually electing large majorities for the winning party almost invariably some brand of conservative leaning party at least in recent times.

The leader of the Wildrose party Danielle Smith is facing another woman leader of the Progressive Conservatives Alison Redford. The main opposition on the left is the New Democratic Party.

As the Wildrose campaign bus was rolled out people soon noticed that the placement of Smith's picture was quite remarkable. Her head and shoulders are directly above the big back wheels of the bus framing them and it appears the wheels might be part of her anatomy! There has been enough negative reaction that the party has announced that her photo on the bus will be changed. Maybe the NDP opposition planned this!

Although Wildrose candidate Shannon Stubbs told CBC that the photo would be changed she said appropriately:"Albertans are going to want to talk about the challenges of the province, rather than pictures on the side of a campaign bus." However, it seems that photos on the bus and campaign gaffes will always be a subject of conversation as well. Even on so serious a news service as All Voices.

For more see this CBC article or the Globe and Mail. I have included a video of the bus from CBC television. The election is expected some time near the end of April. I predict the Progressive Conservatives will win!