Undecided votes have Alberta PCs in a knot

This is from the Globe and Mail. So someone wants an Obama-like injection of charisma into the campaign. Without illusions it is a dull circus and stale bread and also the media have nothing to feast on or foist upon us.





Undecided voters have Alberta PCs in a knot
No opposition party has inspired people, political scientist says, but Tories need to press supporters to vote
DAWN WALTON AND KATHERINE O'NEILL

February 29, 2008

CALGARY and EDMONTON -- Rod Love has had his hand in Alberta politics for three decades, but in all that time, the brash Tory operative has not been one to use words - publicly at least - such as "worrisome" and "abnormal" during a campaign.

But now he is.

As the Alberta election race winds into its final days, the consultant who was once chief of staff to former premier Ralph Klein is concerned enough about the huge swath of still-undecided voters that he has a warning to Progressive Conservative supporters.

"There are 83 Conservative candidates whose job it is [by election day] to convince Conservative voters that if you don't come out, if you stay home, we could elect Liberals," Mr. Love said. "That's what will happen. I don't care if you're frustrated or mad, you've got to vote or you're going to elect Liberals."

Polls have repeatedly projected an 11th consecutive Tory majority on Monday, but they also reveal a persistently large number of undecided voters - even this late in the campaign. Meanwhile, a surprising number of voters are calling for a change in government, are unhappy with Progressive Conservative Leader Ed Stelmach and are willing to switch their vote.

"There's definitely a lot of fluidity yet in the voter commitment," said Harold Jansen, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. "Voters are ready for a change. They're ready for something different, but none of the opposition parties have done a good job inspiring it."

The undecided segment has all parties - especially the Tories - in a knot.

Last spring, when Mr. Stelmach, a former farmer whose style is as electrifying as watching crops grow, was easing into his new job as Premier, polls suggested 15 per cent of voters were undecided. By the time he was preparing to call the election to extend the party's 37-year reign, more than one-quarter of the electorate said they weren't sure who to vote for. Throughout the four-week campaign, the number of ambivalent voters has fluctuated between 18 and 27 per cent.

Of course, assessing the impact of the undecided sector depends on one's perspective.

One theory suggests the uncommitted pool is actually made up of Conservatives. They might simply stay home, which, according to traditional wisdom, is how Tories display their displeasure in Alberta. That's bad news for Mr. Stelmach, or so the logic goes.

Certainly, that was the rationale advanced when Liberal Craig Cheffins won Mr. Klein's riding last summer in the by-election in Calgary-Elbow. Turnout was dismally low - less than 35 per cent. Tory support dropped dramatically compared with the previous two general elections. Even support for the winning Liberal actually fell compared with the 2004 provincial vote.

"It's pretty obvious that the Conservatives have to convince their members to get off the couch," said Mr. Love, citing Calgary-Elbow as evidence of the threat.

Another theory suggests that the undecided are Tories who will show up and vote as they always have - or for another party.

Mr. Love, who is convinced the undecided are Tories, is confident they will vote with the government. If they don't, he said, they'll place their vote with the right-wing upstart, the Wildrose Alliance, rather than the left-leaning Liberals or New Democrats.

Prof. Jansen isn't so sure. "I think some people will hold their nose and vote for somebody, but it's hard to know how that will break down," he said.

Alexandra Bruseker, a 24-year-old Edmonton resident, plans to make up her mind this weekend. But the University of Alberta business student, who has voted Liberal and Conservative in the past, isn't thrilled with her options.

"Nobody seems terribly passionate. I don't think Ralph Klein was the greatest leader, but he certainly had passion and was able to rally the troops," she said.

That's the other thing about Alberta politics: It tends to be heavily leader-focused, and while some leaders have offered concrete policies during this campaign, none have brought any magnetism to the table, Prof. Jansen said.

"One of my colleagues and I were e-mailing that we need to have an emergency charisma injection from [U.S. presidential hopeful Barack] Obama into Alberta politicians," he said.

Mr. Stelmach has warned this week that "a vote for the Alliance is a vote for the Liberals," but has also said last week's televised leaders debate helped sway many uncommitted voters toward the Tories.

"My political antenna is telling me that the voters are starting to crystallize their decisions and that a lot of the undecided will start to come our way," he said during a campaign stop in Edmonton this week.

Ms. Bruseker still wants to see some solid plans for the future of this oil-rich province. She tuned in to the only leaders debate of the campaign to help make up her mind, but turned it off when it erupted into a fight.

"I can't be bothered with that," she said.