While Newman's scenario is a possibility it seems to me much more likely that Harper would just introduce a bill that none of the opposition parties could stomach. They would have a choice of supporting a bill that goes completely against what they were supposed to stand for or bringing down the government. In such a situation the opposition might very well bring down the government even if the polls were not that great for them. Of course this may be underestimating the Liberal capacity to cave in and sell out their principles - or perhaps one of the other opposition parties. This is from the CBC.
How Stephen Harper might trigger the next election
Could the prime minister again claim there was a logjam in Parliament and that an election was needed to clear the air, even though the government had not been defeated? He could try.
But that will be a harder claim to make stick if he keeps winning confidence votes and his party is shown to have effective control of the Senate, which is now the case.
It would be a tough sell to make as well to Jean, in the last months of her term and already the recipient of a good deal of criticism for allowing two prorogations for political purposes.
Of course, Jean's tenure ends this fall and a new resident of Rideau Hall will be appointed for a five-year term. Someone, this time, appointed by Harper.
It would take a rare person, recently appointed to the vice-regal post, to reject an election request from the man who just handed him the job.
Of course, if the calling of an election looked blatantly opportunistic, that might stop the prime minister from asking.
There are, after all, lessons to be learned from the prorogation backlash. But come the fall, the election clock likely starts ticking, regardless of what the fixed-date law says.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/18/f-vp-newman.html#ixzz0ifLvJbMr