NDP and Conservatives in virtual tie as federal election campaign begins

As expected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper met with the Governor General today. The parliament was dissolved and writs were issued for a federal election on October 19.

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As of July 28 the CBC Poll Tracker shows the Conservative Party of Canada(CPC) is virtually tied with the New Democratic Party(NDP) while the Liberals, the third major party, lag behind in spite of their youthful good-looking leader Justin Trudeau. As of July 28, the Conservatives had 31.6 percent support, NDP 32.1 and Liberals, 25.6. However, the most recent seat projections by the same site give the Conservatives 132 seats, the NDP 122, and the Liberals just 81. The Quebec separatist Bloc Quebecois would win two seats and the Green Party one. Given the Canadian political system of first-past-the-post, a party could obtain the highest popular vote without winning the most seats. Seat projections can change considerably over a relatively short period to time. On July 7 the seat predictions were 119 for the Conservatives, 127 for the NDP, and 89 for the Liberals with the other minor parties being the same. Predictions for who will win in each separate riding can be found here.

The Conservatives have been regaining some lost ground lately to come even with the NDP but the Liberals appear to be stuck in the doldrums. The Poll Tracker has a graph showing support for the parties over time. The Liberals have been dropping for some time while the NDP surged but now is back even with the Conservatives. The Conservative fortunes were no doubt helped when last week the Harper government issued checks to families as part of Universal Child Care Benefit increases.

Together the NDP and the Liberals would have a large majority of seats. It would make strategic sense for the two to agree to a coalition government to replace the Harper government. A recent poll by Forum Research shows that over two-thirds of Liberal and NDP supporters are in favour of the two parties forming a coalition if the Conservatives should win a minority government on October 19. Seventy-five percent of NDP supporters are in favour of a coalition and even 68 percent of Liberals, even though the leader Justin Trudeau has consistently ruled out such a move.The NDP has said that it is open to the idea. Forum Research president, Lorne Bozinoff said: “The two opposition parties have spent the last week dancing around the coalition question, but it appears their supporters, especially the New Democrats, have no such qualms. They’re ready to get hitched as soon as a minority Conservative government is elected –– if that happens."

Newman: How Harper might trigger the next election

While Newman's scenario is a possibility it seems to me much more likely that Harper would just introduce a bill that none of the opposition parties could stomach. They would have a choice of supporting a bill that goes completely against what they were supposed to stand for or bringing down the government. In such a situation the opposition might very well bring down the government even if the polls were not that great for them. Of course this may be underestimating the Liberal capacity to cave in and sell out their principles - or perhaps one of the other opposition parties. This is from the CBC.

Don Newman

How Stephen Harper might trigger the next election

.............................
Rideau Hall

Could the prime minister again claim there was a logjam in Parliament and that an election was needed to clear the air, even though the government had not been defeated? He could try.

But that will be a harder claim to make stick if he keeps winning confidence votes and his party is shown to have effective control of the Senate, which is now the case.

It would be a tough sell to make as well to Jean, in the last months of her term and already the recipient of a good deal of criticism for allowing two prorogations for political purposes.

Of course, Jean's tenure ends this fall and a new resident of Rideau Hall will be appointed for a five-year term. Someone, this time, appointed by Harper.

It would take a rare person, recently appointed to the vice-regal post, to reject an election request from the man who just handed him the job.

Of course, if the calling of an election looked blatantly opportunistic, that might stop the prime minister from asking.

There are, after all, lessons to be learned from the prorogation backlash. But come the fall, the election clock likely starts ticking, regardless of what the fixed-date law says.



Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/18/f-vp-newman.html#ixzz0ifLvJbMr

Polls Point to likelihood of Tories being saved for a while!

I actually think that it is a good idea to support the Conservative government on the EI and home improvement tax credit. However, it makes Harper's carping about the NDP and the Bloc co-operating the Liberals look rather foolish. Now those horrible separatists and socialists are voting for Harper policies. Must be something wrong with them! Iggy has a reprieve as well he can bellow and blow all he wants and vote against the government in perfect safety..
However, Harper can always blow this brief period of co-operation by introducing legislation that none of the opposition will support. There still could be an election provoked later in the session. If the Conservatives get far enough ahead of the Liberals they could very well provoke an election and Iggy would no doubt be forced to go into battle or completely loose face.

Conservative lead widens in poll
Last Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:53 AM ET
CBC News
The Conservatives have widened their lead over the Liberal Party, a new poll suggests, as federal election speculation continues.
The EKOS poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 35.1 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with 9 per cent.
The Conservative lead increased slightly from last week’s poll, which saw the Tories with 34.2 per cent of support and the Liberals with 30.8 per cent. The NDP rose from 14.8 per cent, the Bloc slipped from 10 per cent, and the Green Party slipped from 10.1 per cent.
Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.
Ontario continues to look like a tight race for the Conservatives and Liberals. As well, there appeared to be little change in Quebec, with the Bloc still on top with 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals (27 per cent) and the Tories (16 per cent).
The Liberal vow to try to bring down the government at their first opportunity has fuelled election speculation. But the NDP said on Wednesday it will align itself with the Conservatives in order to pass a Tory plan to extend employment insurance for long-tenured workers — a move that could rule out an election in the near future.
The poll also found that party platform plays a major role in how many Canadians vote.
Around 42 per cent of those polled said that was the most important factor in determining which party they would vote for. Twenty-two per cent said party leader was the most important factor and 19 per cent placed most importance with the local candidate. About 19 per cent said none of the above.
The survey of 3,164 people was conducted by telephone between Sept. 9 and Sept. 15, 2009 and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Both landline and cellphone users were included.

Ignatieff denies he will form coalition govt.

Harper talks about playing games but he is the master of games although at times he courts disaster as well. Iggy is quite correct that he can always do as the Conservatives have done, count on the support of some opposition parties to avoid an election if he finds himself with a minority government. Assuming Iggy is a bit less confrontational than Harper he could very well survive for some time by giving a few scraps to the NDP or the Bloc or even more likely to the Conservatives--such as some tougher crime bills that are always popular it seems.
Perhaps in the end he could form a coalition. If voters always voted against politicians who broke promises no one would ever get elected.





Ignatieff insists he won't join forces with Bloc, NDP if Liberals win minority in next vote
September 12, 2009
Tonda MacCharlesOTTAWA BUREAU
OTTAWA–In a bid to counter Tory attacks, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has declared he would not form a coalition with other opposition parties if he forms a minority government in the next election.
And Canadians may find themselves going to the polls sooner rather than later. A Commons vote that could bring down the minority Conservative government has been tentatively scheduled for next Friday, sources tell The Canadian Press. The so-called ways and means motion signals an upcoming vote on a budget matter, but is considered a vote of confidence.
The Liberals have said they will not continue to support the Conservative government.
"Let me be very clear – the Liberal party would not agree to a coalition. In January we did not support a coalition and we do not support a coalition today or tomorrow," Ignatieff said yesterday.
Ignatieff said Prime Minister Stephen Harper is once again warning – in private speeches and in television ads – that the Liberals are out to form another coalition with "the separatists and the socialists" to scare people into giving him a majority government.
Ignatieff said he would work more cooperatively with the opposition parties than Harper has during his time as prime minister. But the Liberal leader could not explain how he would provide political stability in any Liberal minority situation without a formal coalition.
Instead, he said, there are "many other models" of how to run a minority government with the cooperation or support of other opposition parties without entering a formal coalition. He pointed to the Liberal minority governments of Pierre Trudeau and Lester B. Pearson as "among the most productive in the history of our country."
Ignatieff signed a letter of support for last year's coalition when Stéphane Dion was leader, but yesterday he said he should be judged on his actions once he became leader.
When Ignatieff first took over from Dion in December, he said his position was "a coalition if necessary, but not necessarily a coalition." In January, he killed it in deciding to support the government's budget. He says now a coalition was not "in the national interest."
"I could be standing here as the prime minister of Canada," Ignatieff said yesterday. "I turned it down ... . I don't think I need to give further proof of my feeling that that's not what Canadians want. I agree with Canadians."
However, when asked whether he excluded a coalition with the opposition parties if the result of an election were another Conservative minority, Ignatieff called it a hypothetical question he didn't "like."
In French, he said he would seek to form a "good Liberal government, a government of the centre that looks for honourable compromises, that looks to inspire Canadians and to unite them."
The Conservatives continue to insist that means Ignatieff is scheming to strike a coalition with the NDP or Bloc Québécois.
A senior government official, speaking on background, said Ignatieff didn't answer the "straight-up question," which was based on polls that suggest a Harper minority would be the likely outcome of any vote. "He sidestepped it, he dodged it."
Last fall, the Conservatives successfully propelled a wave of popular anger against the Liberals who, under Dion, signed a coalition agreement with the NDP. The Bloc Québécois promised its vote-by-vote support, but was not a formal partner.

Layton wants concrete action on NDP policies as price of support for Harper

The rhetorical bleatings coming from the NDP sound as if it is the NDP that would just love the Conservatives to throw them a lifeline to avoid an election. However, it seems destined not to be. Although supporting Conservatives might possibly bleed off some NDP support and open them up to Liberal attacks, probably the Conservatives simply refuse to budge because they do not see it as in their own interests. The Conservative refrain will be that Canadians want parliament to work and that the opposition will simply not co-operate. Canadians do not want an election but the big bad opposition forced it upon them with all sorts of negative consequences. This prattle is not likely to generate a majority government. The Conservatives want the parliament to work but only upon their terms and the opposition can cave in or face an election. This time it seems we will be facing an election.
The Liberals have already unveiled their great policy slogan: We Can Do Better. Perhaps the Conservatives can do better than that----in creating a slogan of course. Be Happy Vote for Harper.


Layton wants 'concrete' action on NDP policies
PM to blame if election called, says NDP leader
By DAVID JACKSON Provincial Reporter Thu. Sep 3 - 6:52 PM
Federal NDP Leader Jack Layton offered the Harper government a lifeline Thursday and said it would be the prime minister’s fault if there’s an election this fall.
But a spokesman for Prime Minister Stephen Harper dismissed the NDP overture, setting the stage for Canadians to possibly head back to the polls a year after the last federal vote.
Mr. Layton said in Halifax that he wants to see action on NDP policies that were before the House of Commons in the spring, measures to help the unemployed, seniors, and consumers and small businesses gouged by credit card companies.
But the federal leader wasn’t specific on what he meant by action, other than that it must be “concrete.”
“I’m not making any backroom deals with the prime minister,” Mr. Layton said during a news conference at a downtown hotel.
“I’m simply suggesting that it’s time for him to show some leadership, to reach out, and make Parliament work.”
The Harper government is again teetering on the brink of defeat after Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff declared this week his party will no longer keep the Conservatives alive.
Mr. Layton had taken delight in mocking the Liberals for propping up the government during spring confidence votes but talked Thursday about doing the same thing.
He said he wouldn’t see it as “propping up” the Conservatives.
“It’s a question of trying to get results for people. There’s nothing strange or behind the scenes involved here. It’s simply suggesting that the decision about whether there’s an election is the prime minister’s decision.”
Mr. Harper’s spokesman, Dimitri Soudas, suggested Mr. Layton wasn’t sincere in his offer to work with the government.
“Mr. Layton is very interested, and it’s clear to everybody, that he prefers working with Michael Ignatieff and the Bloc Quebecois rather than working in the interests of Canadians,” he said.
Mr. Harper, who spoke to reporters in Ontario prior to Mr. Layton’s appearance in Halifax, said he wasn’t interested in backroom deals. Mr. Harper said he is interested in useful, affordable ideas to help the economy.
He has said an election would interrupt the country’s economic recovery.
The minority Conservatives must look to the NDP or Bloc Quebecois to survive. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has said he’ll consider backing the government on a case-by-case basis.
The NDP, in debt and trailing in the polls, is believed by political insiders to be desperate to avoid an election this fall, but the Tory response to Mr. Layton’s overture Thursday suggests Canadians are likely to head to the polls before long.
Speaking after Mr. Layton’s news conference, Liberal MP Bob Rae said politics is a contact sport, like hockey, not ballet.
Mr. Rae accused the Tories of floating “bizarre” ideas and pooh-poohed the claim that an election would create instability, noting that elections are a normal part of democracy.
“There’s an effort here on the part of the Conservatives to create an atmosphere of total instability,” he said.
“Well, you know, we’re not a banana republic. We have votes. Mr. Harper’s not a generalissimo yet. He has to get used to living in a constitutional democracy.”
Mr. Rae said there is no reason an election need disrupt Mr. Harper’s plans to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama on Sept. 16 or to attend the G20 economic summit in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24.
The latest polls suggest an election now would result in another minority government — either for the Tories or the Liberals.
The surveys put the two parties in a dead heat, with the Liberals well ahead of the Tories in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.

Tories Gear Up for Battle..

I find it rather surprising that both the Liberals and the Tories seem to be taking such strong stands that it leaves them little room to back down. Only the NDP and the Bloc are leaving their options open. If Harper is unwilling to accomodate either the NDP or the Bloc as seems to be the case it would seem we are election bound. However we will still need to wait and see. Politicians have been known to reverse themselves even in situations such as this. Unless things change it is not clear who will get a minority government let alone a majority. Iggy might even have to go with a dreaded coalition!


Tories gear up for political battle

Harper government says there's no chance for a deal with the NDP
•Ottawa — From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Last updated on Thursday, Sep. 03, 2009 09:18AM EDT


The minority Harper government is arming for political battle this fall rather than seeking peace, dismissing the chances of a deal with the NDP to avoid an election and warning its defeat would jeopardize a popular home-renovation tax credit.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has shaken up Canada's political calendar this week by announcing he will now seek to defeat the 10 1/2-month-old Harper government at the first opportunity – a move that could send the country to the polls in October or November.

The New Democrats have offered a lifeline to the Tories, however, saying they're willing to consider propping up the Conservatives if the government adopts some NDP policies. Jack Layton's party has not released a wish list but has said its priorities include regulating credit-card interest rates.

But Wednesday, senior Conservative cabinet minister Jason Kenney appeared to rule out a deal with the NDP. He told a Calgary radio station that he cannot envision Mr. Layton and the Tories finding sufficient common ground to reach an agreement that would see the New Democrats prop up the Conservative government. The Prime Minister himself later echoed that sentiment.

“Look. We've always tried to demonstrate willingness to co-operate with the opposition parties. We did in the last budget. But we're not for sale to the highest bidder, least of all the NDP,” Mr. Kenney told Calgary radio-show host Dave Rutherford.

“It's a party of hard-core left-wing ideologues ... It's not like a moderate, centre-left party. These folks, they drink their own Kool-Aid right? So I don't think we can see a realistic arrangement with the NDP.”

Even as they eschewed co-operation with the NDP, the Tories were privately spreading the word through the media that they hope to try to engineer events so that the Liberals defeat them by voting against a $1.3-billion home-renovation tax credit this fall.

Such a move would sow confusion about the future of the tax credit – even though the Liberals have vowed to reintroduce it should they form government – and bolster the Tory campaign theme that an election brings uncertainty.

The plan would unfold like this: The Conservatives are planning to introduce a ways and means motion after the House of Commons resumes in mid-September that paves the way for the second budget implementation bill stemming from the January 27 budget. This will contain everything not passed in the first budget bill, including the home-renovation tax credit, a measure the Tories held back from passage earlier this year.

A vote on the budget ways and means motion will be a confidence vote – the defeat of which can topple the government – and the Tories will attempt to force the Liberals to either blink or strike down a motion that gives effect to the tax credit.

The Canada Revenue Agency Wednesday declined to say how this would affect the tax credit but Conservatives plan to argue this would jeopardize the home-renovation measure, which rebates Canadians up to $1,350 for upgrades undertaken. “If that is defeated, then Canada Revenue Agency can no longer administer it,” one senior Tory said.

The Liberals protest that this ploy is dishonest because even if they defeat the Tories on the budget motion they would reintroduce the measure and pass it should they win power.

“This is just a Conservative game,” Liberal finance critic John McCallum said. “We are 100 per cent committed to the home-renovation tax credit and will ensure the appropriate legislation is there so people get their tax credit.”

Toronto Dominion Bank chief economist Don Drummond, a former federal Finance Department official, said an election would create some “uncomfortable” uncertainty regarding the program. However, he says as long as the measure is ultimately approved by Parliament before the 2010 tax filing season, the credit would not be affected.

“If I was the Commissioner [of the Canada Revenue Agency], I would just stay cool and leave it in limbo,” Mr. Drummond said. “People won't be filing until February, March and April of 2010 anyhow. So I'd probably just say ‘Hey, I'm waiting to see what happens before the end of the year.' ”

Speaking to reporters in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., Prime Minister Stephen Harper urged opposition parties to support the home-renovation tax credit when it comes up for a vote this fall in the Commons.

“I think we're all a little bit surprised by some of these developments after support being given to the budget, support is now being withdrawn halfway through the budget year and there are still budget measures to be passed,” he said. “This government remains committed to that tax credit.”

Mr. Harper said he's also not holding out much hope for a deal with the NDP – one that could keep his party in office and forestall the fourth federal election in sixth years.

The Prime Minister noted that the NDP has regularly voted against measures even when they addressed New Democrat priorities such as skills training.

“The NDP has been very proud of the fact, and Mr. Layton says it over and over again that in four years he has never once supported the government on anything important,” the Prime Minister said.

“So you know, that's their position. If it changes, you know, if people want to work together on this that will help the economy, we're willing to do that, but we have no indication of that from Mr. Layton.”

Separately, Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe said he won't shy away from triggering an election this fall but was non-committal on whether he would help the Liberals bring down the Conservatives

Ignatieff to pull the plug?

Ignatieff seems to have trouble making up his mind. Not too long ago he was trying to dampen election speculation. Perhaps he feels completely double-crossed in his agreement with the Conservatives to set up a bipartisan panel to deal with EI reform. It would seem that the Conservatives were not ready to give much if anything to the Liberals. Harper is up to his old chicken game--in the interests of all Canadians of course who don't want an election! It remains to be seen if Ignatieff sticks to his new story but it would seem as if he is serious as new ads are being trotted out and a great new policy leap forward: We Can Do Better. That is real grist for any intellect's mill. Harvard will be proud.It will be interesting to see if Layton and the BQ are willing to join forces with Ignatieff to defeat Harper. Probably they will but one never knows for sure.
‘We can do better,' Liberals declare
Jane Taber Senior Political Writer. (Globe and Mail)
Michael Ignatieff framed his ballot question today, saying Canadians will be asked to vote for who is best placed to lead the country into the “economy of tomorrow.”The Liberal Leader said he was not being irresponsible in pledging to defeat the Harper minority government, arguing that he is doing so because, “in my heart of hearts I believe that we can offer Canadians a more compassionate and competent government.”Mr. Ignatieff announced Tuesday his party will no longer prop up the Conservatives, making a fall general election highly probable.After a morning caucus meeting, Liberals flew out of their Sudbury hotel Wednesday, ending a three-day retreat in this Northern Ontario city. They headed off to prepare for the return of Parliament on Sept. 14 and a likely confidence vote at the end of the month or in early October.But there were signs the election campaign has already begun – new Liberal television ads were unveiled to caucus, featuring the slogan, “We can do better.”Mr. Ignatieff also postponed his trip to China, which he had bragged about only a day earlier. “Stephen Harper has been prime minister for four years, and he's never visited China. We'll be there next week,” he said Tuesday.Today, he opted to stay in the country to see how the “political situation develops.”“Mr. Harper has some cards to play; Mr. Duceppe has some cards to play; Mr. Layton has some cards to play and it seems needs to be responsible for me to be here while those issues are clarified,” he told reporters in his closing press conference.He stressed, however that he is done negotiating with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. “We did that in June,” he said, referring to a deal that kept Mr. Harper's minority government in office in return for an opposition day in late September or early October and a bipartisan working group on employment insurance reform.That panel met three times over the summer with little success. According to a Liberal source, it has since been disbanded and there are no more meetings.During the closing press conference, Mr. Ignatieff began to outline a narrative for an election campaign that his critics decry as unnecessary. He appears to be focusing on the economy, an issue that his party pollster, Michael Marzolini, identified as the issue Canadians are most concerned about.“What I have been saying is, this isn't just a recession. We can't go back to the economy we used to know,” he told reporters. “Some of the jobs we've lost are not coming back and Canadians know that and they know that they need a federal government that says, ‘Okay, where do we have to go to create the jobs of tomorrow?'“One of the key things that I am saying in Sudbury is, I don't want a Canada in which all the hope and opportunity has gone to Montreal and Toronto and Halifax and Vancouver. I want hope and opportunity here, in Sudbury.”In concluding remarks to caucus, meanwhile, the Liberal Leader spoke extemporaneously, telling members that there is a sense of freedom now as they can vote freely against the Harper Tories.MPs and Senators also saw the new Liberal television ads, which will be released this weekend. The English versions are meant to introduce Mr. Ignatieff to Canadians, countering attacks from the Conservatives that he is a virtual newcomer to the country, having come back from decades abroad because he was lusting for power.With a forest-like outdoor backdrop, Mr. Ignatieff explains to Canadians why he should be prime minister and attacks the deficiencies of the Harper government.The French version, which was shot in a studio, hits harder at the Conservatives, according to insiders. The Liberals are polling ahead of the Tories in Quebec and believe they can make gains in the province.The ads were described by one Liberal as “inspirational.” Another said they were “positve” and “upbeat.”Party president Alf Apps, meanwhile, said online donations “quadrupled” over the daily average in response to Mr. Ignatieff's speech in which he told Stephen Harper “your time is up.”While Mr. Apps won't say exactly how much was raised, he sent out an e-mail message early this morning under the subject line: “A Good Sign.”A huge fundraising dinner, featuring former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien, is planned for Vaughan, Ont., on Oct. 1. It could provide the centrepiece kick-off event for the election campaign, if the government is defeated then.Mr. Apps has said that they hope to raise $1.6-million at the dinner that Mr. Ignatieff will also attend. It is for the “non-Bay Street GTA” Liberals and others.As well, the party is planning another fundraising dinner with Paul Martin in British Columbia, some time later in the fall.Mr. Apps also briefed MPs and Senators on the state of the party's finances, which have improved dramatically since Mr. Ignatieff took over as leader last December.He said the party plans to run a fully-costed campaign, spending the maximum limit of $24-million. This compares to the $19-million limit for last year's election, in which the Liberals under the leadership of Stéphane Dion, who was considered weak and not a fundraising draw, were only able to manage to run a $14-million campaign.

Liberal prep for upcoming session, possible election

Finally the Liberals are developing a platform that will give Canadians something to judge the Liberals by--and no doubt will provide a target for Conservative critics. Notice that the party spokesperson is for the most part Ralph Goodale rather than Ignatieff. Somehow I doubt that Ignatieff will try to defeat Harper with polls as they are at present. Of course Harper could insist on goading Ignatieff to such a degree that he will be more or less forced to call an election. Harper escaped more or less unscathed from the last fracas so one never knows what he might do. The Liberals at this point seem completely vague about whether there will be an attempt to bring down Harper or not. Different Liberals say different things!

Liberals prep for upcoming session, possible election


By Juliet O'Neill, Canwest News ServiceAugust 30, 2009 2:01 PM



Federal Liberals will gather in Sudbury, Ont., on Monday to plot strategy for a parliamentary session that could plunge Canadians into a fall or winter election campaign.
They will weigh in on how soon to attempt to defeat the Harper government and discuss a campaign platform that spells out an eight-year vision of where Canada should be in 2017, the country's 150th birthday.
Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale said the three-day caucus will cap a summer of preparations to "participate in a very vigorous session of Parliament this fall and to run an election campaign if it comes to that."
The final decision on whether to try to pull the plug on Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government is up to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
"That decision has not been taken," Goodale said. "But there is a rising feeling in the country that this is a mediocre government and it's just not good enough."
Senator David Smith, co-chair of the Liberal campaign, played down speculation an election would be triggered at the first opportunity in early October, soon after the Sept. 14 resumption of Parliament.
"I think it would be very short-sighted of any leader of any party not to be election ready when you're in a minority situation," he said.
"That isn't to say we'll be pushing an election button every day, because I think Michael Ignatieff has consistently taken the position (that) we want to make Parliament work and we're well aware of the fact there were three elections over a four-year period - '04, '06 and '08. But we'll be holding them accountable."
Under an agreement between Harper and Ignatieff that averted a spring election, the government will face seven opposition days by the end of December, any of which could be a test of confidence.
A confidence vote would also be held if the government presents any tax or spending measures. The New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois would have to unite with the Liberals to defeat the Conservatives who hold 143 of 308 seats in the House of Commons.
The Liberals' first chance to submit a non-confidence motion will be three days after the government submits its third economic accountability report during the week of Sept. 28. The second chance is between late October and mid-November.
Smith and Goodale said the Liberals would not defeat the government solely on the issue of employment insurance eligibility rules, an issue that was sent to a bipartisan working group for the summer under the Harper-Ignatieff agreement and on which little progress has been made.
"Fixing employment insurance is only one dimension of what needs to be a much larger economic and social package," Goodale said.
He said the Liberals have seen no progress on other issues on which they faulted the government before the summer recess.
As well as seeking a national standard for EI access, the Liberals accused the government of failing on delivery of stimulus funds for infrastructure projects, spelling out deficit reduction and dealing with the isotopes shortage.
"Those are all symptomatic of issues of competence, issues of honesty, issues of divisiveness in the government's style of governance and issues of values," Goodale said. "There will be a significant number of factors, not just one issue."
Some Liberals say Ignatieff will face a fatal blow to his leadership if he triggers an election and does not win at least a minority government.
A minority is considered the likeliest scenario for either the Conservatives or the Liberals, given a steady stream of polls showing equal support for both main parties and neither party shining in Quebec, where the separatist Bloc Quebecois remains strong.
Goodale said the election platform is "well advanced" and will contain a positive vision about Canada's future, using the 150th anniversary of Confederation as a benchmark for education, health and economic security.
He said the platform will be designed to contrast a positive, forward-looking Ignatieff against Harper's "negative, almost pathological partisanship."
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

Liberals ask for cost analysis of their EI plan.

It seems that the Conservatives are really not interested in co-operating on EI reform with the Liberals. I thought that the Liberals and Conservatives were in effect operating a type of secret coalition but it seems I was wrong. The Conservatives were just playing their usual tricks to keep themselves in power. The EI bipartisan panel has already achieved its purpose of avoiding a summer election. Now perhaps the Conservatives are ready to dare the Liberals to bring them down. The Liberals are not improving significantly in the polls so Harper probably thinks that Ignatieff will cave in again.


Liberals seek independent review of EI proposal as reform panel stalls
(CP) – 18 hours ago
OTTAWA — A bipartisan panel on Employment Insurance reform, set up in June to avert a summer federal election, appears to have ground to a stalemate.
The Conservative and Liberal teams wrapped up their last scheduled meeting without agreeing to a further timetable, and without - say Liberals - any firm proposals from the government side.
A Liberal plan to create a national EI eligibility standard of 360 hours was shot down as an expensive non-starter by Tory MPs on the panel.
Now the Liberals are asking Kevin Page, Parliament's independent budget officer, to do his own cost analysis of their plan.
They dispute Tory claims it will cost upwards of $4 billion a year, saying the price tag is closer to $1 billion.
The creation of the EI panel was the modest price Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff extracted from Prime Minister Stephen Harper in June in return for continued Liberal support of the minority government.
The Liberals also forced the Tories to provide them with an opportunity to defeat the government in September when Parliament returns - and the panel's apparent lack of progress sets up one more friction point between Harper's government and the official Opposition.
Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

No Fall Election?

Perhaps Ignatieff wants to wait and see if he will ever get poll numbers near a majority; otherwise, it would seem he would rather work with the Conservatives than the Bloc and NDP. The Liberals are no real alternative to the Conservatives just more of the same but a little bit slower perhaps in moving to the right. Both Ignatieff and Harper are pro-US and will make sure that we lose more lives and spend more money to be junior partners in the U.S. empire building.
If anything Ignatieff is even more pro-US empire than Harper. The latter is just an admirer of the U.S. conservative movement whereas Ignatieff is a big fan of U.S. humanitarian imperialism so much so that he even supported the war in Iraq at first.

Summer poll could cool talk of election
TheStar.com -- Summer poll could cool talk of election

July 30, 2009
Tonda MacCharles
Ottawa Bureau
OTTAWA–The political rhetoric is still flying, but are Canadians listening?

A survey by Angus Reid Strategies for the Toronto Star shows the federal Liberals with 34 per cent support and the Conservatives with 33 per cent – a statistical dead heat. The result is a warning for any party thinking of plunging into a fall election: No wind of change is blowing across Canada.

The poll shows the shaky economy is still voters' top concern, despite a declaration by Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney that the recession is over, and no party's leader has clearly won the trust of a majority of Canadians on the issue.

If anything, Canadians trust Carney more than either Prime Minister Stephen Harper or his Liberal rival Michael Ignatieff to manage the economy, but Carney's trust ratings dropped after his suggestion the economy was finding its footing again.

Yesterday, cabinet ministers distanced the Conservatives from Carney's economic optimism.

"To say we're out of the woods – I don't think that's the position of our government," said Industry Minister Tony Clement.

"We're still focused on the economy. We're not focused on a fall election, quite frankly. That's what the Liberal leader of the Opposition is focused on, but that's not our focus. Our focus is the economy."

Still, politics, and not the economy, appeared to dominate the agenda, with Conservatives and Liberals trading accusations of political bad faith and skulduggery as the Tories concluded a summer caucus meeting yesterday.

Conservatives privately fanned a CTV report that suggested Liberals planted a false – and since retracted – story with a New Brunswick newspaper that the Prime Minister pocketed a communion wafer. The Liberals called the suggestion nonsense, and pointed to a CPAC video of the incident as self-explanatory.

Publicly, the talk turned to employment insurance reform, on a day after statistics showed a sharp spike in claims for jobless benefits.

Human Resources Minister Diane Finley said Ignatieff is living in an "academic fantasyland" by clinging to a proposal to set 360 hours as the national standard for accessing unemployment benefits.

Finley is member of a bipartisan working group struck in June to study EI reform – part of a deal Harper worked out with Ignatieff to avert a summer election.

Ignatieff, who had suggested he'd be flexible on a national standard as long as EI was reformed, then slammed the Tories for failing to bring forward to the working group a single "serious" proposal to help the self-employed, as promised.

The Angus Reid poll offers little encouragement for such tough talk.

Conducted Monday and Tuesday, it shows public approval for the opposition Liberals stands at 34 per cent – an increase of four points from two weeks earlier.

The governing Conservatives' support held at the same level as two weeks ago at 33 per cent. The poll of 1,012 people has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, which means the two parties are in a virtual tie.

The NDP was at 16 per cent support, down two points. The Bloc Québécois was at 10 per cent and the Green party 7 per cent.

Meanwhile, Ignatieff's momentum score has dipped 5 points since early July. After Ignatieff took over leadership of the party last December and through the spring, his momentum grew as Harper's numbers dropped. Now, the poll shows Harper's momentum is holding steady.

"What we have seen in the summer is that Ignatieff's numbers have come back down to earth a little bit," said Jaideep Mukerji, a spokesman for the polling firm.



He said Ignatieff's honeymoon period appears to have ended, due in part to Tory attack ads and a poorly executed ultimatum over EI reforms as the parliamentary session ended.

According to the poll, slightly more people are unhappy with how the federal government has handled the economic crisis, but overall more Canadians still trust Harper to manage the economy over Ignatieff.

"With the numbers as they are, clearly no party is in a position to get a majority, and neither party seems to be able to get a clear advantage over the other," said Mukerji.

"It would be difficult for any of the parties to look at these numbers and think that they've got a great shot at really shaking things up."

With files from Joanna Smith


om

Harper: Canada a More Conservative Country

Perhaps this is true but Harper doesn't bother to give any evidence for this. Polls about peoples attitudes about various matters should support what he says one way or the other. Anyway Harper at least admits that the country is not as right wing as many in his party. This is why he must hide much of his agenda although he was able to pass a considerable amount of conservative legislation with the support of Liberals. He wants to be able to do more however.
No doubt Harper thought conditions will worsen economically and for the Conservative party. When Dion opted for the Green Shift I think Harper saw that this would not sell very well. He seems to be right especially in BC where the provincial carbon tax is unpopular among many it would seem. A big spike in gas prices may help Harper as well.
Harper strategists are carefully crafting a softer image of Harper and sell him as a moderate and not to be feared but rather respected as a capable and strong leader. In Quebec, he moved to recognise Quebec as a nation, a bold stroke for a Prairie based politician. Even though his base is probably not at all enamoured of Quebec sovereigntists Harper seems to be having some success in luring them into the Conservative camp. This is from the Globe and Mail.




Harper: Canada a more conservative country
STEVEN CHASE AND OMAR EL AKKAD
Globe and Mail Update
September 13, 2008 at 8:42 PM EDT
GRACE HARBOUR, NFLD. and OTTAWA — Tory Leader Stephen Harper says he thinks Canadians have become more conservative over the past two decades.
But, he added, they're still not as right wing as his party – which means it must moderate its policies in order to govern.
“I think the Canadian public has become more conservative,” he said during an election stop at a factory in Fredericton on Saturday.
“At the same time I don't want to say the Canadian public is overwhelmingly conservative or that it is necessarily as conservative as everybody in our party.”
Mr. Harper said that even as his party is trying to sell Canadians on the Conservatives it must put water in its wine when making policy.
“That means our party has to make sure that it continues to govern in the interests of the broad majority of the population. That means not only that we want to pull Canadians towards conservatism but Conservatives also have to move towards Canadians if they want to continue to govern the country.”
He said in the last two decades there's been a broad embrace of policies once considered the domain of conservatives, from free trade to balanced budgets and spending restraint.
“We saw the Liberal Party in the 1990s flip its positions on all these issues and adopt small c-conservative positions,” Mr. Harper said.
But there's also been a revival of pride in ideas and entities that conservatives have traditionally backed, Mr. Harper said, meaning not just policies and organization that Liberals and New Democrats say defines Canada.
“Not just [in] things like Medicare and the [Canadian Broadcasting Corporation] but [also] in our national military and other institutions,” he said.
Making his first campaign visit to Newfoundland and Labrador, Mr. Harper shrugged off the latest attacks from Danny Williams and urged voters to ignore the Premier's call to defeat federal Tories.
“No one can tell a Newfoundlander or Labradorian how to vote,” Mr. Harper told a crowd of about 250 in Harbour Grace, Nfld., where he stumped for Tory MP Fabian Manning in the riding of Avalon.
Earlier that day, Mr. Harper told reporters he thinks that voters are receptive to the Conservative message in Newfoundland and Labrador, where the Tories held two of seven ridings before the election was called.
“Premier Williams has a vote like every other person in this country but there's half a million other Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who will have their vote as well and I am convinced we have got a pretty good case to make to them,” Mr. Harper said during an election stop in Fredericton.
He also said Mr. Williams is also not telling the truth about a closed-door conversation the two men had in 2007 – one where the Premier says Mr. Harper told him “he didn't need Newfoundland and Labrador to win an election.”
“I never said that at all. What I said was the contrary: I told Premier Williams some time ago I believe we're going to win the next election … and I want Newfoundland and Labrador to have a place in our government,” Mr. Harper said “Premier Williams didn't like the last government. He doesn't like this government and I don't think he will like the next government, whoever that would be.”
Still, Mr. Harper praised Mr. Williams' premiership and said the attacks don't bother him.
“He has his style. In many ways he's a very effective premier. I have learned never to take things personally in this business.”
On Wednesday, Mr. Williams launched his sharpest broadside yet at Mr. Harper, attacking the Conservative Leader's integrity and urging all voters to think twice before giving the party a majority.
He renewed his battle with Mr. Harper over the division of spoils between Ottawa and the province over offshore oil revenue, accusing the Tory chief of breaking his word in a 2007 equalization agreement.
“What in heaven's name will happen if he wins a majority?” Mr. Williams said. “Stop, think, and decide if that is what this country deserves.
“When we vote, I would rather that we stand on the solid ground of principles than on the shaky ground of broken promises. If you believe the country deserves better, then you know what to do.”
The answer, he said, was “as easy as A, B and C,” referring to his ‘Anything But Conservative' campaign.

Leaders rachet up the rhetoric.

As usual Harper is telling fibs. He is calling an election because his own party polls had shown a trend up for the Conservatives and down for the Liberals. It has nothing to do with the opposition blocking legislation. The Liberals passed everything the Conservatives brought forth and on Afghanistan were able to cut a deal. Both parties are supporting our troops by putting them in harm's way and ensuring more tragic and useless deaths to support the former warlords and a government that would have executed a Muslim who converted to Christianity were he not spirited out of the country to Italy.

Leaders Ratchet up the Rhetoric.

By Mia Robson

Sept. 5, 2008

OTTAWA -- Partisan punches flew feverishly Thursday as it emerged that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is ready to pull the plug on parliament on Sunday, triggering a vote on the day after Thanksgiving.

Tory sources say Harper will visit Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean at Rideau Hall around 9 a.m. Sunday, kicking off a 36-day campaign that is expected to centre around issues of the economy, the environment and political leadership.

It will end at the ballot box Tuesday, Oct. 14.

Harper -- who stayed out of sight at a pre-election cabinet meeting at Meech Lake Thursday -- is ending his minority government after 937 days by claiming partisanship and political mudslinging have ground the work of the House of Commons to an intolerable point.

He has said he can't wait for October 2009 -- the date an election was supposed to be held after Harper himself pledged and passed a law for fixed election dates.

As word of Harper's plans leaked out Thursday, opposition leaders kicked up their anti-Harper attacks. Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion -- who cut short a caucus retreat in Winnipeg and sent his MPs scrambling back to their ridings -- characterized Harper as a "secretive, centralizing, right-wing" leader who can't even be trusted to follow his own laws when it doesn't suit him.

"The next election will be one of the most important ones in the history of Canada because there is a gulf of differences between this very right-wing government and what we want to do for a richer, fairer, greener Canada," Dion said.

The Liberals used the day to blame the Conservatives for the deadly outbreak of listeria and demanded the resignation of Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz, an attack Ritz dismissed as pre-election ploy.

The Liberal election strategy -- to paint Harper as a bully and a liar whose tax cuts have brought the country to a brink of deficit on the eve of a recession -- will be contrasted with Dion's attempts to get out from under the attacks on himself by the Tories as a wimpy, unproven leader with a carbon tax plan for the country which is too risky in an uncertain economy.

"Many of them, my fellow Canadians, know me through the negative propaganda of the Conservatives," Dion said in an editorial board meeting with the Winnipeg Free Press Thursday. "I will (have a) golden opportunity to speak to Canadians in the coming weeks.

In Toronto, NDP Leader Jack Layton also went on the attack against Harper, putting into practice his campaign plan to ignore the Liberals and go straight at the governing Tories. In a 24-minute address to party supporters, Layton didn't mention Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion even once.

Meanwhile, the Tories continued their cross-country tour of pre-election announcements, offering up cash for shipbuilders in the Atlantic and a $4.9-million plan to target street gangs in Toronto amid a number of smaller regional announcements including in Manitoba.

The Tories also announced three of their cabinet ministers won't be running again. The resignations of Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn in St. John's and Foreign Affairs Minister David Emerson in Vancouver were expected as both were unlikely to be re-elected in their respective ridings. The Tories could lose all their seats in Newfoundland amid a fight with the provincial government over oil revenues. And Emerson's defection to the Tories just days after he was elected as a Liberal in the last election left a sour taste in the mouths of Vancouver voters.

But it was a shock to most when word came that Monte Solberg -- the jovial and wise-cracking MP for Medicine Hat and Minister of Human Resources -- is also going to call it quits.

The Tories go into the election with a slim lead over the Liberals in most recent polls and a leader whose personal popularity far outstrips that of the other party leaders or even that of his party as a whole. It is on leadership the Tories hope to make or break this campaign.

A source from the Prime Minister's office told the national press corps last week the Tories will push for this election to be decided based on who is the bigger risk for the country: a Prime Minister who love him or hate him is confident and consistent and will carry the country through tough economic times without introducing new taxes, or Dion, an unproven leader with a "half-baked" carbon tax plan even his own MPs don't fully understand.

The Liberal election platform will centre around the Green Shift carbon tax plan and attacking the record of the Harper government.

-- with files from The Canadian Press, Mary Agnes Welch and Selena Hinds

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

• 
  

Layton Borrows from Obama's playbook

Layton should avoid Obama like the plague. Obama's rhetoric is fraudulent for the most part. His foreign policy is aggressive U.S. imperialism or "hegemonic" to use the more common politically correct terminology nowadays. Has Layton not listened to what Obama has to say on Afghanistan? While Layton wants Canadians out, Obama will put in many more Americans.
Layton should realise too that Bush is far down in the polls while Harper is enjoying a lead over the Liberals. Many Canadians need to be convinced to vote against Harper and are not interested in change the way Americans are. Many Canadians seem so engrossed in watching the bread and circuses in the U.S. that they are not paying much attention to what Harper has been doing.
Layton is probably right to concentrate on attacking Harper. I wonder if there will be much movement towards strategic voting to try to block a Harper majority? Of course we must wait and see what happens in the polls. Hopefully Conservative support will erode significantly. However, even if the present levels remain a majority is not likely.

Layton borrows from Obama's election playbook
By: Jessica McDiarmid
Updated: September 5 at 07:12 AM CDT

TORONTO -- The federal New Democratic Party signalled Thursday that it will borrow from Barack Obama's playbook in its efforts to oust Prime Minister Stephen Harper from power.
The party has never been in a better position to fight a federal election and is boasting the best slate of candidates it's had in a long time, said leader Jack Layton as he rallied supporters in Toronto just days before an election call anticipated for Sunday morning.
For the first time in history, the party has a full budget to wage battle against the Conservatives -- about $18.3 million, the maximum amount allowed by Elections Canada -- Layton said.
NDP strategists said the focus of their campaign will be solely on replacing Harper, as opposed to other elections when multiple opponents were targeted. During his 24-minute speech on Thursday, Layton completely avoided mentioning Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion.
Echoing some of Obama's speeches, Layton said his party's campaign will centre on "hope" and "change."
"It's really a vision of hope, it's a vision about change," said Layton. "It's a vision that says we can actually make a different choice than we've been making in the past."
Layton said he listened closely to Obama's speeches and there are many parallels between the situations of the two countries. He claimed the Democrats' environmental policy is "identical" to the NDP's.
"I think we're picking up on some of the energy we're seeing in the United States as well, and I think that could be kind of exciting," said Layton.
Layton met with the chief architect of Obama's successful bid for the Democratic nomination in the United States and the NDP's strategy runs parallel to -- rather than imitating -- Obama's, said campaign spokesman Brad Lavigne.
"Because of the American election, a lot of people are tuning in, they're getting excited about the potential winds of change, and what we want to do is we kind of want to piggyback on that, those winds of change," Lavigne said.
Layton also used his speech to list off a host of issues that he would address if he controlled the government, including public transit, doctor and nurse shortages, the environment and the listeriosis outbreak.
Sources have told The Canadian Press that Harper will officially launch the federal election campaign Sunday with a visit to the Governor General at 9 a.m. ET.
The election is expected to be held on Oct. 14.
--

Environics Poll: Canadians set to vote Conservative

Well at least 38 percent would if they had to vote now. I wonder if it is because Harper is regarded as so good or Dion so bad. I really cannot fathom why anyone would vote Conservative or Liberal. Neither deserve support in my opinion. Harper is deceitful, full of transparent ploys, and very right wing. Dion is spineless. He should have pulled the plug on Harper ages ago but was too worried about the polls. He should be more worried now! At least there seems to be less infighting visible within the Liberals now and Dion has managed to mount something of an attack against Harper on the meat inspection issue. Surely people must see through Harper's manipulation of the situation with his charade about calling the leaders together for consultation. At the same time as he was doing this he was running election ads so it is clear he did not have the slightest intention of carrying on. After passing a law for a set election date he then does exactly what the law was suppposed to prevent, parties calling elections based upon their own sense of the best time to run. The ads he is running are another transparent example of how Harper likes to make an end run around rules. The ads that are running now will not count as part of the election campaign expenses since the election has not yet been called. This is from the CBC.


Canadians set to vote Conservative: poll
Last Updated: Thursday, September 4, 2008 7:52 PM ET
CBC News
Canadians are most likely to vote for the Conservatives in a federal election, and believe Stephen Harper and Jack Layton would make better prime ministers than Stéphane Dion, according to a new poll sponsored by CBC News.
The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 38 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative party if an election were held immediately.
By comparison, 28 per cent would vote for the Liberal party, 19 for the NDP, eight for the Bloc Québécois and seven for the Green party.
Even when undecided voters were asked to reveal whom they were inclined to vote for, the Conservatives still kept the lead: Conservatives (33 per cent), Liberals (24), NDP (16), Bloc (7), Green (6).
If the federal election were held today, which of the following parties would you vote for?
Total %
Conservative party
38
Liberal party
28
New Democratic Party
19
Bloc Québécois
8
Green party
7
(Source: Environics survey)
This latest poll shows that support for the Conservatives has grown since the beginning of the summer.
A similar survey done in late June and early July showed the Conservatives with 35 per cent support of decided voters, while the Liberals had 30, the NDP had 17, the Greens had 10 and the Bloc had eight.
"The Conservatives are now up by a couple of points and they are within striking distance of a majority," Donna Dasko, senior vice-president of Environics Research Group, told CBC News on Thursday.
"This is the early days and there is no election campaign right at this moment and things can happen, but certainly if you look at this poll today, you would conclude that the Conservatives are in a very good position."
The survey comes as an election looms in Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to visit Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday and ask her to dissolve his minority Conservative government, the Canadian Press reported Thursday.
Canadians would then go to the polls on Oct. 14.
A total of 2,505 people from across the country were surveyed by telephone for the latest Environics poll. It is considered accurate to within plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Conservatives lead in Ontario, Prairies, B.C.
When looking at the regions, the Conservatives have a firm lead in Ontario — 43 per cent of Ontarians would vote Conservative compared to 34 per cent Liberal.
In your opinion, which of the following party leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada?
Leader
%
Stephen Harper
39
Jack Layton
15
Stéphane Dion
13
Gilles Duceppe
4
Elizabeth May
3
None of the above
14
Don't know/No answer
12
(Source: Environics survey)
"This is the big story — the strength of Conservative support in Ontario and how their support has inched upward over the past several months," Dasko said.
The Conservatives also have firm support in the Prairies (53 Conservative, 22 Liberal) and in British Columbia (35 Conservative, 28 NDP, 26 Liberal).
But Atlantic Canada, a traditional Liberal stronghold, the Liberals maintain the lead — 39 per cent of Atlantic Canadians would vote Liberal while 33 per cent would vote Conservative, according to the poll.
In Quebec, the Conservatives are second to the Bloc, which has 34 per cent of the vote, compared to 23 for the Conservatives and 22 for the Liberals.
Dasko noted that the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in the province.
"What's interesting from the poll is how it splits out in terms of Montreal versus the rest of Quebec," Dasko said. "If you look in Montreal, it tends to be a race between the Liberals and the Bloc.
"But if you look outside of Montreal, it's a race between the Bloc and the Conservatives. So the Conservatives have a real chance, I think, of picking up some seats outside Montreal … That's where we're going to see a lot of action in the election campaign."
'Dion has a lot of work to do'
While Canadians are leaning their support toward the Conservatives overall, they also have confidence in the party's leader.
A total of 39 per cent said Harper would make the best prime minister, while 15 per cent chose the NDP’s Layton.
Only 13 per cent chose Liberal Dion, while 14 per cent said none of the leaders of the major parties would make a good prime minister.
"Mr. Dion has a lot of work to do," Dasko said. "He thinks he can speak to Canadians and pick up those numbers during the campaign, but he's starting from a real deficit."
Former Liberal campaign co-chair David Herle said Thursday that while it's clear much of the momentum currently rests with the Conservatives, the Canadian public's vote intention is far from clear.
Nothing that the Liberals would need a 10- to 12-point advantage in Ontario to have a chance at forming a government, Herle said the party must make a 25-point turnaround there in the upcoming weeks.
"It's not impossible — many polls have shown them with that kind of a lead relatively recently in Ontario."
Conservatives for economy, Liberals for environment
When Canadians were asked which political parties could best handle a variety of heated issues in Canada, the choice was most often the Conservatives.
Those responding to the poll said they believe the Conservatives are best able to deal with the economy, provide honest government, deal with crime and justice, represent the interests of people’s home provinces in Ottawa and deal with Afghanistan.
By comparison they thought the Liberals could best deal with environmental issues like global warming and environmental pollution. The Liberals are also best suited to handle national unity issues, respondents said.
The Liberals and Conservatives were tied when it came to health care, chosen equally as the best party to handle the issue.
When considering the issues, the Liberals or the Conservatives were usually considered the first and second most capable parties.
However, the NDP came in second when it came to choosing the party most capable of providing an honest government — 27 per cent of respondents chose the Conservatives as most capable, 19 per cent chose the NDP and 14 per cent chose the Liberals.
The NDP, along with the Greens, were also considered strong when it came to the environment — Liberals got 21 per cent of the vote, with the NDP, Greens and Conservatives tied with 20 per cent.
More results from the Environics poll will be made available Sunday morning on CBCNews.ca, CBC-TV and CBC Radio.

Stage set for October election

Stage set is exactly the right terminology. The curtain is now going down on the opening farce scripted by Harper. Harper knew that the opposition , even the Liberals, could not give him a blank check. Anything less than complete capitulation to the Conservative agenda is apparently an obstructionist opposition that is impossible to work with! We now go on to the rest of the play. Neither of the two main characters are deserving of our support as far as I am concerned. I will hold my nose and vote NDP. Vote for anyone but the two main characters. Don't waste your vote!


Monday » September 1 » 2008

Stage set for October election

David Akin
Canwest News Service
Monday, September 01, 2008
'Yes, there will be an election. Yes, it's official,' Liberal opposition leader Stephane Dion said Monday after a 20-minute long meeting with Prime Minister Stephen Harper at 24 Sussex in Ottawa.
OTTAWA - Liberal Leader Stephane Dion says Prime Minister Stephen Harper will call a federal election because he has refused to give Harper a blank cheque to govern.
Dion met with Harper for about 20 minutes at the prime minister's official residence Monday afternoon. Both he and a spokesman for the prime minister said there is no common ground politically between the two parties.
"Yes, there will be an election. Yes, it's official," Dion told reporters gathered outside 24 Sussex Drive.
Kory Teneycke, a spokesman for the Prime Minister's Office, said it is clear the Opposition wants to force a vote.
"There are a number of things the government would like to move forward on. We are simply looking for broad areas of agreement where the government can proceed," Teneycke said.
But Dion said Harper should continue governing, rather than break the spirit of his own fixed election date law.
"It's a joke," Dion said. "Never will a minority government receive from any political party a blank cheque and he knows that. He's confusing two things: Does the Parliament work? Yes. Does the government have the certainty to survive? The answer is no. It was no two years ago. There is nothing new."
Harper has now met individually with the leaders of the other three parties in the House of Commons. Each one left the meeting convinced that Harper was looking for an excuse to call an election.
Advisers to the prime minister say the "first window" available to Harper to call an election begins Tuesday and ends Sunday.
Harper himself is expected to make a major announcement about support for the auto industry on Wednesday or Thursday. And an official in the PMO said there are some "loose ends" to tie up before a campaign begins.
Conservative insiders say Harper will likely wait until Sunday to ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, setting up an election day that could legally be held no sooner than Oct. 14.
The stakes for the election are personally high for both Harper and Dion, as well as NDP Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe. Depending on the election's outcome, three of the four parties now represented in the House of Commons could be looking for a new leader after the election.
Harper's advisers immediately began positioning the prime minister as a leader who is a steady, trusted hand in a time of economic uncertainty. Dion will counter that claim, saying Conservatives wasted a healthy budgetary surplus left to them by the Liberals and that Harper's economic management has brought the country to the brink of recession.
Both Liberals and Conservatives agreed that the key ballot question for Canadians will be which leader is more trusted by voters.
"One of the issues will be trust," Dion said. "Can you trust a prime minister who called an election while not respecting his own law. The way he's mismanaging the economy, attacking our arts and culture, mismanaging food safety will also be some issues and I told him that," Dion said.
"I think it's a question of who do you want to lead this country in uncertain economic times," Teneycke said. "Who do you trust to lower crime rates? It's a question of trust and a question of leadership."
© Canwest News Service 2008

.

Four federal by-elections in limbo

It seems that Harper does not want to see the results of these by-elections even after calling them. I wonder whether Harper is calling the election because he thinks things will get worse for him later, because the elections may bankrupt the Liberals and create division against Dion, or some other reason. The opposition can rightly claim that this whole consultation game is a farce. The fact that Conservative election ads are already running shows that Harper has made up his mind. Unlike the Liberals Harper is not about to eat crow and and he will not likely reverse course to keep the government going. Perhaps Dion will beg Harper not to call an election at this time! I suppose that would be good Labor Day entertainment for Harper.
This is from the Star.



Four federal by-elections in limbo TheStar.com - Canada -
ANDREW WALLACE/TORONTO STAR
Guelph NDP candidate Tom King says cancelling a Sept. 8, 2008 by-election in favour of a federal election would be like repeating a marathon — "backwards."
Work continues on votes that face cancellation – and taxpayers will have to pick up the tab
September 01, 2008 Linda DiebelNational Affairs Writer
While enjoying the delights of the Labour Day holiday, spare a kind thought for Guelph returning officer Anne Budra and her Elections Canada crew working through the long weekend for a Sept. 8 vote that likely won't come.
After all, you're picking up the tab.
There's apparently no way, according to Elections Canada, to calculate the precise cost to Canadians of cancelling four by-elections scheduled for September if, as expected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper calls a general vote this week.
An Elections Canada official says his agency estimates a tab of $890,000 for each of the four by-elections, but can't hive off how much already has been spent, how much is irreversibly committed and what can be rolled over into an upcoming Canada-wide vote.
However, be sure of one thing: Canadians will pay more for a general election this fall than the roughly $300 million it usually takes to fund a federal election.
"It's a complete waste of taxpayer money, especially when (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) suggests we're going to end up with another minority government," says Michael Nagy, a Guelph consultant and Green party candidate.
"What does it say about Harper's priorities if he's spending this kind of money for an election we don't need, right now, while cancelling programs we do, like the $45 million in arts cuts?"
On July 25, Harper announced Sept. 8 by-elections in Guelph, Westmount-Ville-Marie and Saint-Lambert On Aug. 17, he scheduled a fourth vote for Sept. 22 in Don Valley West.
Even Budra can't guesstimate expenses to date in Guelph for a vote scheduled for a week today. Her staff has been at it for more than five weeks and, with a laugh, she says: "They've got us where they want us."
Thing is, if the by-elections are cancelled, all their work is simply sealed and shipped off to Elections Canada in Ottawa in order to put Guelph on an equal footing with every other Canadian riding going to the polls. It's the same for the other three ridings.
"Our job is to run the by-election and until we hear differently, it's business as usual," Budra told the Toronto Star. "If we have to start again, we start from scratch."
Still many things are up in the air and another Elections Canada staffer in Guelph says they'd be waiting for instructions from Ottawa if the by-elections are cancelled. It could be a scramble for them if Harper waits until Sept. 7 to do it, as rumoured.
Office expenses from rent to utilities must be paid, transportation costs covered and employees reimbursed for work that includes advance polling, verifying registration lists and keeping headquarters humming. Budra says she's employing 800 people in total and, while many are slated only for Sept. 8, Elections Canada must ensure potential staffers aren't out-of-pocket for, say, booking time off in advance.
Other issues stretch beyond financial cost, notably the strain on candidates and volunteers who've been door knocking, stuffing envelopes and putting out signs since the votes were called.
"It's like running a marathon to the end and finding out you have to do it all over again, backwards," said Tom King, the NDP candidate in Guelph who's better known outside the area for his radio comedy, Dead Dog Café.
"It's tough." he says. "We've got to keep everybody going, keep the energy high and not let exhaustion set in. We've been at it almost 35 days, and now we're probably extending it to 70?"
Mike Crawley, president of the Liberal Party of Ontario, also thinks the public "will take a dim view" of a snap election. (Indeed, an Angus Reid poll for the Toronto Star, published Saturday, shows 52 per cent of respondents don't want an early vote this fall.)
At a Guelph rally yesterday with Green party leader Elizabeth May and newly snagged MP Blair Wilson (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast), Nagy didn't know if he was campaigning for next week or next month.
Not all Guelph candidates are peeved at Harper's expected big change in plans.
"If Parliament goes back, there's probably an election scenario anyway," says Liberal Frank Valeriote, a lawyer who's hoping to keep Guelph, considered a bellwether riding, for the Liberals. His Conservative opponent is Gloria Kovach, a municipal politician in the area.
"It all comes out in the wash," says Valeriote. Plus, there's good news and bad news for by-election candidates.
The good news is Elections Canada plans to refund the $1,000 registration fee to everyone. Under normal circumstances, the refund comes only if the candidate gets 10 per cent of the vote.
The bad news? They'll have to send it right back to Elections Canada for Round 2.

Green Party snags its first MP

This is from the Globe and Mail.
The first Green MP may never get to sit in parliament given that Harper is expected to call an election before the next scheduled sitting of parliament. Given that the Green Party only got 6 per cent of the vote in the riding last election it is quite possible that Wilson will be defeated. The allegations of misspending will not help him. Maybe he should have tried to join the Conservatives!



Green Party snags its first MP
OMAR EL AKKAD
September 1, 2008
OTTAWA -- In part, the Green Party can thank David Suzuki's daughter for helping it finally get a foot on Parliament Hill.
With its first MP in the party's history, the Greens are momentarily poised to move into the House of Commons. But they also face one of the toughest riding battles in Canada.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May announced this weekend that Blair Wilson, a former Liberal MP in British Columbia who is now an Independent, will be joining the party.
Mr. Wilson's Green conversion came during a whirlwind week of talks between the MP and the party that were as serendipitous as they were strategic.

Mr. Wilson, as recently as this summer, was still looking to rejoin the Liberal caucus after being forced out amid allegations of misspending. He decided to test the waters with the Greens by dispatching a mutual friend to talk to Ms. May in Nova Scotia a week ago.
At first, the friend "cloaked himself in mystery," only saying that an MP was interested in joining the party, Ms. May said. Eventually, it became clear that Mr. Wilson, who represents the riding of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, was that MP.
It just so happened that Ms. May was flying to B.C. that same week to attend Dr. Suzuki's daughter's wedding. The timing proved perfect.
"It was one of those moments where the sun, moon and the stars align," Mr. Wilson said. "When Liz and I got together we found we had a lot in common."
Ms. May had dinner at Mr. Wilson's B.C. home last Thursday, just as talk of an imminent election morphed from hypothetical to deafening.
"We knew that to have the status at a leaders debate, we had to have a Green MP before the dissolution of Parliament," Ms. May said.
The final hurdle was cleared when the nominated Green candidate in Mr. Wilson's riding agreed that having a sitting MP was more important than the party's long-shot odds of winning it on their own. The Green candidate in the 2006 election garnered 6 per cent of the vote in that riding.

Harper: Dion pushing Liberals left.

Hmm..The Liberals support the Conservatives on extending the Afghan mission. The left, at least the NDP, supports a withdrawal. The Liberals time after time refuse to defeat Conservative legislation. That must mean the Conservative legislation is leftist. No it doesn't mean that, what it means is that Harper is continually spouting nonsense. The left whether in the NDP or the Bloc voted against the Conservatives constantly. Harper not parliament is dysfunctional and we should get rid of him.

Thursday » August 28 » 2008

Dion pushing Liberals left: Harper

Andrew Mayeda
Canwest News Service
Thursday, August 28, 2008
CREDIT:
'What's interesting about Mr. Dion is he's certainly the Liberal leader that has taken his party farthest to the left, at least since Mr. Trudeau, if not farther than Mr. Trudeau,' Prime Minister Stephen Harper told reporters here.
INUVIK, N.W.T. - In his strongest hint yet that Canada is headed for a fall election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday that Canadians will have a choice "in the not-too-distant future" between himself or Stephane Dion, who has taken his party "farthest to the left" of any Liberal leader since Pierre Trudeau.
"What's interesting about Mr. Dion is he's certainly the Liberal leader that has taken his party farthest to the left, at least since Mr. Trudeau, if not farther than Mr. Trudeau," Harper told reporters here on the last day of a tour of the Canadian Arctic.
"The fact that Mr. Dion opposes any expenditure management in any area of the government, I think indicates to us why we increasingly have little common ground in Parliament with Mr. Dion and where he is taking the Liberal Party, but more importantly indicates a direction for the country that I don't think Canadians are prepared to accept," the prime minister added.
"We anticipate that Canadians will have a choice in the not-too-distant future on exactly how they want to see this country be governed, through a period where there are economic difficulties across the board."
Arguing that Parliament has become "dysfunctional," Harper has threatened to call a snap election before a set of byelections scheduled for Sept. 8.
The prime minister has been trying to arrange meetings with the four opposition leaders to gauge their resistance to the government's agenda once Parliament returns Sept. 15.
Harper is scheduled to meet Dion on Sept. 9, but the prime minister hinted again Thursday that the meeting might not happen before the country is plunged into an election campaign.
"If I don't hear from Mr. Dion within the next week, I hope that Mr. Dion will prepare himself," the prime minister said in French.
Speaking in Montreal earlier in the day, Dion said his party is "fully ready" for a fall election, and suggested the party will build an election platform on championing arts and culture funding.
But Harper tried to frame Dion as a big spender who represents a dangerous choice for Canadians at a time of economic slowdown. The Conservatives have attacked the Liberals' proposed carbon-tax plan, deriding it as a "tax on everything."
"This is not a time to go back to Trudeau-style economic policies. It is not a time to impose new taxes on the Canadian economy, on the northern economy, on everybody's economy. And it is not a time to launch big, unfunded spending initiatives," said the prime minister.
Critics note the Harper government has brought the country perilously close to a budget deficit through a series of big tax cuts. But Harper sought to deflect some of that criticism Thursday, arguing that Canada is not yet in a "real recession."
"The term that's been thrown around is that we're close to a technical recession, but I think it is only a technical recession," said Harper. "When I say people talk about a technical recession, even if that's true, I don't think it's a real recession."
The prime minister continued: "Somebody said a recession is, you know, when people start losing their jobs and when your neighbour starts losing his job, and there are job losses, but overall, employment's pretty stable."
Statistics Canada is set to release its latest numbers on GDP growth on Friday.
Meanwhile, Harper suggested the Conservatives will continue to use the controversial "in-and-out" financing scheme that has landed the party in hot water with Elections Canada.
"Our position has been that Elections Canada has changed some of its interpretations since the election campaign - that's our problem, that's why we're in a court dispute," the prime minister said.
"But obviously we will not only abide by the letter of the law, but we will work with Elections Canada to reach a common understanding of the interpretation of the law, and that's what we will follow."
Elections Canada has alleged that the Conservatives violated Canada's election laws by claiming national advertising as local candidates' expenses, but the Conservatives have challenged the ruling in Federal Court.
© Canwest News Service 2008

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Bankrupting the bankrupt Liberals

This is an interesting and well written article by a well known Conservative strategist. Flanagan makes some excellent points. Note that Flanagan assumes that lack of funds will be a millstone around the Liberals' neck. Other things being equal this is probably true but there are times when voters become so disgusted with a ruling party that a Mickey Mouse poor as a church mouse could win. The Liberals have done nothing to merit voter support but yet they remain close to the Conservatives at the polls. It is a race to determine who is the least disgusting.
There are no doubt many reasons for the Conservatives to call an election now but Flanagan puts a new spin on the election call and his reasoning is not without some merit. However Harper also probably wants to avoid possible poor results in byelections, further digging up of dirt by committees, and worsening economic times. Dion will have his opportunity to show that he has been underestimated by his opponents. If Dion does very well and is able to form his own minority or majority government I wonder if Harper will fade from the scene.

The Grits won't die - they'll just fade away
And if they're not careful, they could end up in a financial pit
TOM FLANAGAN
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
August 28, 2008 at 9:11 AM EDT
Carthago delenda est.
- Cato the Elder
Although the looming fall election seems mired in technicalities about election dates, the stakes are very high for the party leaders, especially for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. He has to do much better than Paul Martin did in the last election. He has to lead his Liberals to victory, or at least to such an improvement that the Conservative minority government is destabilized.
Anything less, and Liberal supporters, who have long been accustomed to winning, will be clamouring for his scalp.
But the party's precarious financial state makes the stakes even higher for the Liberal Party as an institution than for Mr. Dion as a leader.
Here's what we know about Liberal finances:
Their fundraising stinks. They raise only about $5-million a year, barely ahead of the New Democrats and less than a third of what the Conservatives can muster. They are surviving on their government subsidy - currently about $9-million a year, based on the 4.5 million votes they received in 2006.
They have borrowed $2-million from the banks to cover operating expenses. The national party's credit rating was so poor that wealthy constituency associations had to guarantee the loan.
Candidates from the last leadership race still owe about $2-million from their campaigns. Elections Canada has given them another 18 months to pay off those loans, but that is diverting fundraising efforts from the party to the candidates.
The Liberals can borrow the money they need to run a fully funded, $19-million national campaign - but loans have to be paid back. Their 50-per-cent rebate from Elections Canada will provide $9-million, but how will the rest of the loan be repaid? Here's where things get really dangerous for the Liberals.
Suppose Dion-o-mania fails to materialize and the Liberals get fewer votes than they did in 2006. Then their subsidy, already down to 86 per cent of what it was when the new system started in 2004, will fall even further. Yet, much of this declining subsidy will be dedicated to repaying their bank loans because Liberal fundraising will also fall; people don't like to give money to losers. And the banks can't agree to write off the loans or substantially soften their terms because that would constitute an illegal corporate donation.
Moreover, Mr. Dion - never very popular in his party - will be facing calls to resign. But that means a new leadership race, even before the debts from the previous one have been repaid, as the big boys - Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae - square off for an expensive final slugfest.
The Liberal Party will undoubtedly survive the coming election, but it may emerge financially crippled, with the banks laying claim to much of its (now smaller) public subsidy, and fundraisers working to pay off debts from leadership races past and present.
The first order of business for any new Liberal leader will be to restore the party to financial health. Over four years, John Tory succeeded in doing that for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, but provincial law allowed him to draw on corporate and high-end individual donations. Under federal law, however, the Liberals are confined to grassroots fundraising, which they have not yet learned how to do.
Against this backdrop, the Conservatives would appear to have a viable long-term strategy: force the Liberals to exhaust their limited resources in repeated battles.
Do you remember your ancient history? From a Conservative point of view, this is a rerun of the Punic Wars, with the Conservatives starring as the rising Roman republic and the Liberals cast as the evil empire of Carthage. In the first Punic War, the Romans took Sicily from Carthage; in the second, they took the rest of the Carthaginian possessions in Europe; and in the third, they defeated Carthage totally, razed the city to the ground and sowed salt in the fields so nothing would ever grow there again.
In the first Canadian Punic War, the Conservatives brought the Liberals down to a minority government; in the second, they pushed the Liberals out of government altogether, although they not did get their own majority. What will happen in the impending third Canadian Punic War?
Destruction of the Liberals is not at hand; there will be further sequels to this movie. But if the Liberals are not careful, they, like the federal Progressive Conservatives of sainted memory, could be pushed into a financial pit they can never climb out of.

Early election call won't break any promises: Harper

Of course being in a minority cannot prevent the opposition from forcing an election before the fixed date next year but Harper can prevent himself from doing so! His saying that he is not breaking any promise is a crock. Harper probably wants to call an election because he thinks that things are going to get worse in the economy and with scandals and who knows what else. Rather than let the Liberals determine the timing he will do it himself. Or maybe Harper has the impossible to resist syndrome a disease the inflicts prime ministers and premiers and paralyzes the will making it impossible to resist calling an election. This is from the CBC.
From this article it would seem that Harper may very well call an election before the coming byelections. Dion may be right that Harper worries he might not do well in those byelections.
Anyway Harper's calling the meeting with the leaders of other parties is surely a farce. I am surprised that any leaders actually agree to meet with him. A phone call would do. Anyway he already knows the Liberals will co-operate as long as they do not like the polls.

Early election call won't break any promises: Harper
Last Updated: Tuesday, August 26, 2008 2:00 PM ET CBC News
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he won't be breaking his promise to Canadians if he calls an election this fall, one year ahead of the fixed election date set by his own government.
He said the goal of the fixed election date — the next one being Oct. 19, 2009 — is to provide Canadians with some sense of certainty.
But, Harper argued, in the context of a minority government like the current one, certainty is never possible because opposition parties are always threatening to vote against the ruling party on confidence motions and topple the government.
"We are clear," Harper told reporters at a news conference in Ottawa. "You can only have certainty about a fixed election date in the context of a majority government.
"Look, if any of the opposition parties wanted to provide some, any degree of certainty that we'll be here to October 2009, then we'll have an election in October 2009."
He said the opposition parties have not shown their support — the NDP and Bloc have indicated they want an election called, while Harper said the Liberals have proposed their own $15.4-billion carbon-tax plan in June, suggesting they want the government to move in a different direction from the current path the Conservatives are on.
The prime minister said he is continuing to consider whether an election needs to be called, a decision he has said he expects to make in the next few weeks. Senior Conservatives have suggested Harper could pull the plug on his minority government as early as Sept. 2.
"The country must have a government that can function during a time of economic uncertainty," Harper said.
Can't wait for meeting with Dion
He said he is not willing to wait for Sept. 9, the day Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has suggested he could meet with Harper to discuss the issue of whether Parliament can continue as is. The meeting would occur a day after three federal byelections in Quebec and Ontario; a fourth byelection is slated to take place in Ontario on Sept. 22.
"We don't need to wait three weeks for a meeting to occur," Harper said.
"As I have already said, this shows a fundamental difference between the government and the opposition parties, and particularly Mr. Dion, who has proposed an economic agenda [the carbon-tax plan] which is completely the opposition of the government's program."
The CBC's Keith Boag, covering Harper's news conference in Ottawa, said Tuesday's comments marked the first time Harper has been direct in answering questions about the possibility he will call an election.
Harper didn't say an election would depend on what Dion decides, or on any other conditions, as he has in past news conferences.
"The prime minister is not trying to be coy about it in any way at all anymore," Boag said. "He more or less accepted that an election is going to happen."
"When the prime minister himself is talking that way, you can pretty much take it to the bank that he's made up his mind that he'll have to call an election very, very soon."