Conservatives close to Majority

The latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows that the Conservatives are very close to a majority A seat projection puts them just three seats shy of a majority. This might seem a bit surprising given that Harper has had problems all week with Ritz. However, the Liberal campaign has great momentum in going nowhere. First, they thought they might inject some of the recycled NDP power booster Rae and they have also tried Harvard testosterone with Ignatieff. Nothing seems to work. So they have jettisoned their main policy plank the Green Shift in order to make the campaign lighter. Harper had the last laugh when he joked that jettisoning the Green Shift was like Tim Horton's distancing itself from donuts.
This is from IpsosReid.


The poll, taken from September 16 to 18, finds that Harper’s Conservatives (40%) now enjoy a comfortable 13 point lead over Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party (27%). The Conservatives have gained 2 points while the Liberal Party has dropped 2 points since last week.
The NDP led by Jack Layton has gained two points to sit at 15% support among decided voters, and the Green Party, having won a podium at the Leaders debate and then boisterously launching their policy platform and cross Canada train tour with party leader Elizabeth May is down slightly (1 point) to 10% nationally. Nationally, the Bloc, stinging from local rebuke, 29% of the vote in Quebec (down six points from 35%, holding at 8% nationally). Six percent (6%) of voters remain undecided.
These are the results in the regions:
In seat-rich Ontario, where the biggest Conservative gains have been realized, the Tories (41%) have catapulted themselves into first place and are now running ahead of the Grits (33%), NDP (15%) and Green Party (10%).
In Quebec, the Conservative (29%) are now tied with the Bloc (29%) for first position. The Liberals (23%) lag behind, as do the NDP and (13%) and the Green Party (6%).
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (44%) are the front runners, while the Liberals (23%), NDP (19%) and Greens (14%) are splitting the rest of the vote.
In Alberta, the Conservatives (61%) continue to dominate over the struggling Liberals (19%), NDP (11%) and Green Party (9%).
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (51%) are also well ahead of the Grits (25%), the NDP (13%) and the Green Party (10%).
In Atlantic Canada, a tight race is ensuing. Currently, the Liberals (33%) hold a slight lead over the NDP (29%), and the Conservatives (27%) are not far behind. The Green Party (11%) trails.
The following seat model has been rendered by Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The seat projection is based on an aggregate of polling data collected by LISPOP since the outset of the election, and this latest seat model has been updated to include this latest Ipsos Reid poll. Ipsos Reid does not create the seat model but contributes its findings to an aggregate base of polls used by Dr. Kay for the analysis.
With this current poll contribution to that aggregate base, the projection shows the Conservatives just shy of a majority with 152 seats for the Conservatives, 95 for the Liberals, 34 for the Bloc and 27 for the NDP. For more information about the methodology and these projections, please visit http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/www.wlu.ca/lispop.