Cadman affair dramatically changes election timing scenarios

This is from the Harper Index. I am sceptical. It is also possible that nothing can be proved against Harper or his minions who visited Cadman. It seems the big winners in this situation are the media who can occupy lots of air time asking pundits what is likely to happen.
The last part of the article certainly seems correct. As Wiseman points out the Liberals have "compromised"--I would say 'caved'--on Afghanistan and this together with their refusing to defeat the budget will allow for by-elections to go ahead. The Liberals expect to win most of those. If the Cadmon affair gets worse for the Conservatives and the Liberals gain momentum then they may try to force an election.
However, they will require poll confirmation first. If the Liberals are well ahead this will mean that Canadians must want an election!

Cadman affair dramatically changes election timing scenarios

March 17 by-elections likely to go ahead, and Liberals could bring down government this spring if Conservatives sink in polls.

OTTAWA, March 3, 2008: Stephen Harper's hopes to call or force an election have been set back by allegations that the Conservatives attempted to bribe the late MP Chuck Cadman for a crucial confidence vote when Paul Martin was prime minister.

Harper is now caught in a he-says-she-says situation. 'He', in this case, actually involves two top Conservative Party operatives, Tom Flanagan and Doug Finley, both known for their aggressive tactics. 'She' also involves two people: Cadman's widow - a Conservative candidate herself - and his daughter, neither of whom has anything obvious to gain from the charges.

There is also the battle of competing audio tapes: Cadman saying publicly that there had been no financial offers made to him by the Conservatives, and Harper admitting privately that there had been.

If the allegation is proven "it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."
"The Cadman affair dramatically changes the electoral equation," York University political scientist James Laxer told HarperIndex.ca by email. "If it turns out that Stephen Harper actually gave party officials the green light to try to financially induce a dying Member of Parliament to vote to bring down the Martin government in 2005, the Prime Minister's career could be finished. This is one of the most serious allegations to face a Canadian government in decades, and the allegation directly implicates the Prime Minister. If proven, it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."

These developments mark a dramatic reversal for Harper, who had threatened to go to the polls this winter over three different issues - Afghanistan, the budget, and crime legislation. Prior to the Cadman story emerging, the Conservatives probably hoped to be able to call an election before March 17. That's the date of four by-elections. The Liberals are expected to win at least three, including the riding where defeated Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae is running.

University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca the Liberals compromised on those issues in order to get to the by-elections. "One of the things the Liberals have decided is they want the publicity boost from winning in three or four ridings," said Wiseman.

Liberals caught in their own by-election strategy?
"Dion will not pull the plug now," says Laxer. "Indeed, how can he? He's already bought into the Conservative agenda on the two key issues, Afghanistan and the budget. His quibbles aside, the Liberals have signed on to extending Canada's military mission in Kandahar until 2011. And Liberal support for the budget, symbolically stamps the party's seal of approval on a set of economic policies whose hallmark is reduced taxes for the wealthy and the corporations, as well as full steam ahead for oil sands development at the expense of the nation's hard hit manufacturing sector."

Another observer told HarperIndex.ca that Rae, the Liberals' foreign affairs critic and co-chair of Liberals platform development, pushed for the compromises for the sake of the by-election election strategy, and to get himself into the House.

With the change in fortunes, an election will be most likely to occur soon if the opposition forces it. Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca, "I still think there's a chance we will have an election this spring. On an Opposition Day, if the Conservatives were to drop in the polls, one of the opposition parties could introduce an explicit non-confidence motion that was very soft that all parties could support."

Laxer says it is highly unlikely that Harper would dissolve Parliament soon. "Having received the support of the Liberals on Afghanistan and the budget, the government can hardly make a convincing case that opposition obstructionism makes a trip to the polls necessary.

Only a non-confidence vote will force an early election
Under the election act introduced by Stephen Harper, the election date has been fixed at October 19, 2009 unless the government "loses the confidence" of the House. The Cadman Affair makes it more likely that the Liberals - without whose support the NDP and Bloc cannot unseat the government - will finally force such a vote soon.

The downside of an election engineered by the Liberals, says Laxer, is that Stéphane Dion has lost much of his political appeal in the run-up. "When he was chosen leader of the Liberal Party, [he] could make a credible case that progressive Canadians ought to join him (at least, in ridings where the NDP was not competitive) to throw out the Conservatives. Now he hasn't a ghost of a chance of making a credible case to progressives. He's caved on the defining issues and everybody knows it."

Wiseman, who spoke last week with Dion, said, "The Conservatives have co-opted the Liberals." Until Cadman, this had put Stephen Harper in a strong position to campaign on leadership issues, with the Liberals in virtual agreement on key issues.

Now the Harper government could lose control. The by-elections will go ahead, which won't help their cause. Economic problems are looming, and federal surpluses are shrinking, which makes new programs to attract voters unlikely. the Mulroney-Schreiber thing never gets better, and now there's Cadman. To make matters much worse, in November, Americans may elect Barak Obama, and Harper's team has already been accused of meddling to hurt Democratic chances. For all these reasons, it is possible Stephen Harper could create a reason to trigger a non-confidence vote and an election before things get worse.