NDP tops polls both in Calgary and Edmonton and rest of Alberta

A split among conservative voters and anger against the ruling Progressive Conservatives(PC) may lead to the New Democratic Party(NDP) winning the upcoming Alberta provincial election.

+ Add Image

The Alberta NDP has surged in one of the final polls of election 2015. In the Edmonton Sun polling company Mainstreet Technologies said that the "only possible outcome" of the vote is the "coronation of an NDP government." That prediction seems very premature. Last election the polls predicted the Wild Rose party, a breakaway group on the right, dissatisfied with the ruling Progressive Conservatives would definitely win the election. The Conservatives ended up winning. To add insult to injury the Wild Rose Party leader defected to the Conservatives along with a number of other elected representatives. One might think that this would spell the end of the Wild Rose Party but it hasn't. An Ipsos Poll a week before the election shows that 37 percent of decided voters would vote NDP with 26 percent for the Wild Rose and 24 percent for the Progressive Conservatives.

In ordinary circumstances one might expect that with a combined conservative vote of 50 percent, the Wild Rose Party voters would opt to vote Conservative. However, the Wild Rose supporters obviously are quite angry at the ruling Conservatives. Mainstream Technologies' president, Quito Maggi, notes that polling shows 75 percent of Albertans want a change in government. He said the relatively new but quite popular leader of the NDP Rachel Notlley showed in the debates that she was a viable alternative. Rachel is the daughter of former Alberta NDP leader Grant Notley. However, support for the same party does not always run through the family. Former Conservaitve premier Ralph Klein's daughter, Angie, has come out in support of the NDP. However, Angie said she had supported the NDP before and even when her dad was premier! Maggi's polling shows Wild Rose voters overwhelmingly put the NDP as their second choice rather than the Conservatives, showing perhaps that dissatisfaction with the ruling Conservatives trumps the large ideological gap between the Wild Rose and the NDP.

The NDP leads both in the two major cities and the rest of the province. In Edmonton, where Rachel Notley holds a seat, the NDP has a huge 73 per cent support level. Even in Calgary, the NDP has the lead with 35 per cent of the decided vote to 26 for the Wild Rose and just 24 for the PCs. Even outside the cities where voters tend to be more conservative the NDP is winning by a substantial margin of 39 per cent to 33 for Wild Rose and a mere 22 for the PCs. Strategic voting may mean that even more conservative votes go to the NDP at the expense of the Wild Rose party rather than what you would expect that they would vote PC since they are closer to them ideologically. However, even Albertans apparently have doubts about what is happening since 32 per cent believe that Progressive Conservatives will win the election but only 29 per cent believe the NDP will win. More polls and seat projections can be found at this site.

Wildrose may be poised to defeat Progressive Conservative dynasty in Alberta

An article in the Globe and Mail argues that the Progressive Conservatives may go down to defeat because they have ignored a central tenet of the the party's success under Peter Lougheed who first brought the party to power more than forty years ago.

While Lougheed was moderately progressive as a conservative he paid attention to his back benchers. He consulted them constantly and on occasion even let them overrule cabinet decisions. It worked to keep harmony for the most part.

However in recent years some back benchers especially in some rural areas have felt left out. Even more dramatic some of the oil patch supporters have been miffed that a former premier Ed Stelmach raised royalties.

The problem as the Globe article sees it is that the Progressive Conservatives had huge support on the right so they tried to keep the left at Bay. In order to do so they adopted more liberal policies that alienated their base. This is a common tactic for parties to remain in power. In the U.S. the Democratic party moves right because the left in the Democratic party have no where to go. The Conservatives moved left slightly to attract and keep votes from going to the Liberals and NDP. However the tactic has backfired and disgruntled conservatives formed the Wildrose party.

While Peter Lougheed the patriarch of the Progressive Conservative party continues to support the party and its leader Alison Redford many federal Conservatives support the Wildrose. The former chief of staff for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper Tom Flanagan not only supports the Wildrose Party but is manager of Danielle Smith's the Wildrose leader's campaign. We will know on Monday if the Wildroses are more than just a thorn in the side of the ruling Progressive Conservatives.

Former Alberta premier Lougheed supports sagging Tories

Peter Lougheed a former premier of the province of Alberta threw his support behind the Progressive Conservative Party and its leader Alison Redford in the upcoming election. The Conservatives are being out polled by the upstart Wildrose party also on the right of the political spectrum.

Lougheed noted:"This is a harder campaign...because we’ve been there for 40 years and obviously these are difficult and challenging times." The Conservatives have been characterising the Wildrose party as the party from the past with an agenda set by old white guys. Now the Conservatives have the support of an old 83 year old patriarch white guy from the past.

Lougheed became premier in 1971 defeating another right wing party Social Credit. That party had itself ruled Alberta for decades. Now another right wing party is hoping to knock out the Conservatives.

The article here claims that the Conservatives have been trailing or running neck-and-neck.. However recent polls put Wildrose far ahead.. See this site.. As you can see the most recent poll puts the Wildrose party at 46 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives at 29.. There are several other recent polls that put Wild Rose far ahead. The Wildrose leader's campaign has promoted free votes in the legislature so that representatives can represent the opinions of their constituents and also citizen sponsored referenda. The program has popular appeal as a return to grass roots democracy. For much more see the full article.

Seat Projections: There are seat projections at this site. The most recent projections give the NDP 5 seats, Progressive Conservatives 29 seats and Wildrose party 52 seats. Obviously the Conservatives need to turn things around.

Wildrose party surges ahead in Alberta provincial election

The incumbent Progressive Conservative party is falling further behind the Wildrose party in recent polls. Both parties are on the right and both are led by women.

A Leger Marketing survey shows the Wildrose party gaining support in the second week of the campaign. Wildrose led by Danielle Smith received 41 per cent to 34 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives led by Alison Redford. The leftist New Democratic Party has only 12 per cent and behind them the Liberals have just 10 per cent. In Edmonton the NDP was doing well at 20 per cent versus about 7 per cent in Calgary.

There are still 22 per cent of voters undecided. The undecided voters were leaning equally toward the Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives. The are still over two weeks left in the campaign.

The polling reveals a split between the two largest cities Edmonton and Calgary. The Conservatives continue to lead the Wildrose in Edmonton in the north but are far behind in Calgary in the south of the province.

In Edmonton the PC's have 37 per cent while the Wildrose has only 25 per cent. In Calgary the situation reverses with Wildrose aat 47 per cent and PCs at just 34 per cent. Rural areas are overwhelmingly for the Wildrose at 54 per cent and just 30 for the PCs. The situation has changed dramatically just within a couple of months. Earlier Redford was by far the most popular choice of leader when compared to Danielle Smith. Only 3 out of ten voters polled wanted the present Conservative government to be reelected.

The Wildrose leader actually receives more support from men than women. 35 per cent to 22 percent. Redford has about equal support. The full report is here. For more on the election and issues see this article. Both leading parties are promising goodies. Alberta is one of the richer provinces as it has vast oil resources. Conservative parties have ruled the province for decades.

Edmonton Sun backs Stelmach

The Edmonton Sun comes out in support of Stelmach but without great passion it seems! The author actually puts in a plug for the NDP!
The Calgary Herald still seems to hold out some hopes for Liberals at least in Calgary.

" Liberals are hoping to wedge through widening cracks in several Calgary ridings, a once nearly impenetrable Tory fortress, while the New Democrats, Wildrose Alliance and Greens are also vying to break through in the city's 23 seats.

"Calgary is where one senses change," said political analyst Bruce Foster, chair of policy studies at Mount Royal College."

This is from the Edmonton Sun.

March 2, 2008

Steady Eddie the best choice

By NEIL WAUGH



If elections were all about issues then the candidate with the biggest wheelbarrow of documents would win.

And if the barrage of policies and promises coming out of Liberal Leader Kevin Taft's war room were measuring sticks, then the Alberta Liberals would take Election 2008 in a runaway.

But if Albertans' past election records are anything to go by, they look beyond the pitches and stump speeches for an intangible ingredient in their politics. That's a difficult-to-define concept best summed up in one word: Leadership.

While the Canadian parliamentary system is the sum of many parts, the person who occupies the premier's office must be someone who Albertans admire, respect and believe in to do the right thing when the chips are down and Albertans' backs are against the wall.

In recent memory, we've been blessed with several such leaders.

Both former premiers Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed earned their stripes as leaders. And the late Laurence Decore and Grant Notley, while neither formed a government, continued this strong Alberta legacy of leadership.

It's clear that many Albertans were searching for leadership throughout the campaign, reflected in the large "undecided" bloc in the polls.

Early on, the blunder-struck campaign of PC Leader Ed Stelmach muddled the political landscape. But when the other three provincial party leaders were given the chance, they failed to seize it.

The turning point for us was the TV debate where Stelmach clearly showed the cool, calm leadership qualities Albertans have come to expect of a premier. The other party leaders' credibility deteriorated as the squabbling, name-calling grew.

After that, the PC campaign gained momentum by placing Ed out front. With Tory policies and spending announcements already laid out, Stelmach's leadership qualities shone through.

And it became clear to us at the Edmonton Sun that Stelmach and his Progressive Conservative candidates are the best choices to govern the province.

But that shouldn't mean we're giving Steady Eddie a blank cheque.

The last few years of PC rule exposed a lot of backsliders and goof-offs in his cabinet and backbenches.

We expect and demand that Stelmach use the same leadership skills he displayed on the campaign trail by whipping his new government into shape pronto. And we'll be the first to criticize him if he doesn't.

Albertans also need strong opponents to the PCs in the legislature to keep Team Stelmach on its toes.

During the campaign, Brian Mason's New Democrats have shown they have the policies and philosophy to provide effective and consistent opposition.

That said, the rest is up to you - the voters.

So Who is Correct about the Alberta Election?

Here are two contrasting articles about the Alberta election. The first is from the Globe and Mail. This article sees a Conservative victory as a sure thing and even suggests that the Conservatives could gain seats. It is noted that Stelmach ran an "awful campaign". However the media always claimed that he would and that he couldn't debate so if Stelmach pulled off a D plus campaign he probably exceeded public expectations!

Alberta Tories on cusp of 11th majority
KATHERINE O'NEILL

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

February 29, 2008 at 11:52 PM EST

EDMONTON — The Alberta Progressive Conservatives are poised to win handily their 11th straight majority Monday despite a large number of voters who say the province is due for a new government, according to a new poll.

“There is some desire for change, some restlessness and angst, but the fact is that none of the opposition parties have been able to make the case that change is really required,” said Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV.

The poll found that 50 per cent of Albertans surveyed intend to support the Progressive Conservatives – which is higher than the results of the 2004 provincial election, when the party polled 48 per cent.

However, the level of support has dropped eight points from 58 per cent in early January when The Strategic Counsel conducted a similar poll.

The survey of 750 Albertans was taken Feb. 27-28 and is accurate to within 3.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

It found the Alberta Liberals nabbed 25 per cent of voter support, while the Wildrose Alliance, a right-wing party that has only been around since January, came in third with 10 per cent.

The NDP and the Alberta Green party both polled at 8 per cent.

The Tories' support is weakest in Calgary (44 per cent) and strongest in rural Alberta (58 per cent).

Before the election was called, the Tories, which have governed the oil-rich, debt-free province since 1971, held 60 of the 83 seats in the legislature.

Mr. Woolstencroft said while the survey found 48 per cent of voters said it's “time for a change” and a new government, many voters don't want to “rock the boat” because economic times in Alberta are quite good.

He said Calgary will be the key battleground on March 3. However, he expects vote splits in many ridings could help the political dynasty, which has an election war chest rumoured to be $4-million.

When the election was called on Feb. 4, observers were expecting an electric campaign, especially in Edmonton and Calgary. However, it's been decidedly lacklustre, with few issues emerging. Around the province, there's little talk about the campaign, with some people not even aware there's one under way.

Other opinion polls published during the campaign have shown a large segment of undecided voters, but Mr. Woolstencroft said his research found no evidence of this.

This will be the first election test for Ed Stelmach since he became Tory Leader in December, 2006. He replaced Ralph Klein, who retired from politics after being premier for almost 14 years.

Mr. Woolstencroft said Mr. Stelmach, a soft-spoken 56-year-old ex-farmer from northern Alberta, has turned out to be a good choice for the political dynasty because he's bolstered the party's support in Edmonton and is expected to keep the Wildrose Alliance at bay in rural Alberta.

Keith Brownsey, a political scientist at Calgary's Mount Royal College, said Liberal Leader Kevin Taft's leadership will be in serious doubt if his party doesn't pick up more seats. At dissolution, the party had 16 seats. He said the debt-ridden Liberals, which haven't governed the province since 1921, have a small election war chest and have been struggling to get their message out.

Mr. Brownsey said The Strategic Counsel poll suggests the Tories could gain as many as 10 seats on March 3.

“With the level of discontent that is reflected in this poll and to have these kind of voting intentions, well, I don't understand it,” he said. “Mr. Stelmach ran an awful campaign, but it doesn't seem to matter.”

The second article from the National Post is rather surprising and really has none of the statistical basis of the first. Probably it is from a survey of oil company insiders at a bar. It is by Don Martin and starts out with the hilarious headline:

Panic creeps into Alberta Tory ranks as election nears
Don Martin, Canwest News Service

Perhaps they are the kingmakers who lost out to Stelmach and the panic is that he is going to show them how well he can do. Here is a snippet from the article:

"But the confided consensus of MPs was that Premier Ed Stelmach is about to lose a bunch of seats in Monday's provincial election and, if the large undecided vote shifts to the opposition or stays home, perhaps lurch into the nightmare scenario of becoming Alberta's first-ever minority government.

Panic has crept into Conservative ranks, but the fret is most intensely felt in Calgary where the party's 37-year reign is facing its most dangerous electoral test in, well, 37 years."

There may be some loss in Calgary but there also may be gains in Edmonton apparently. In a couple of days we will know. Note that even in Calgary the Conservatives have 44 per cent support that is really not all that weak. If the Liberals had that nationally we would be having a Spring election.

Alberta Liberal Leader has plan to wage "war on carbon"

This is from the Globe and Mail. It is amazing how many different wars there are that involve stretching the meaning of the word: the war on poverty, the war on terrorism, the war on crime, and now a ' war on carbon'. Common to all cases is a pleading for more resources to be devoted to a problem. Often too it involves regulation or even as in the war on terror a dimunition of rights.
In the case of the oil patch they may worry about their rights to produce and profit without much in the way of regulation. A good environment for them is little regulation and a good environment for profitable investment. It is not clear that this good environment is compatible with the "war on carbon"!

Alberta Liberal Leader has a plan to wage 'war on carbon'

ROY MacGREGOR
rmacgregor@globeandmail.com

February 13, 2008
CALGARY -- Kevin Taft believes he has unique qualifications for bringing an end to the 37-year run of the provincial Progressive Conservatives.
It has nothing to do with him telling a grade school teacher he would one day be premier - politics, right up until he could take it no more, never once entered his mind.
It has nothing to do with being asked by then-premier Peter Lougheed's PC government to serve on a hospital task force while still in high school.
It has nothing to do with having worked, at various times, for the PC government of former premier Don Getty.
And it has nothing to do with his background. Politicians don't chase doctorates in business, and authors - he has written bestselling books on Alberta - tend to turn to print because they're no good at talking.
No, it has to do with China.
When the 52-year-old Liberal Leader was in his late 20s, he organized a series of scientific expeditions to the Gobi Desert. Once there, they would look for fossils - and, whenever possible, extract these dinosaurs from positions they had held for eons.
"Great practice," Taft grins, "for going after the Tories in the legislature."
Taft, in his own way, is a bit of fossil when it comes to Alberta Liberals. He is fighting a second provincial election as leader; the rule of thumb being they get one chance, blow it and are then blown away.
Seven years ago, Taft became the only new Liberal in the province to land a seat when he took the Edmonton riding in which he had grown up and now lives. He only ran, he says, because he could take no more of Ralph Klein running the province like a personal fief.
When Taft led the Liberals against Klein in the last election, taking 16 of the province's 83 seats, it was considered a good enough show for another chance - no one ever thinking for a moment that the chance would come against a force the Liberals once considered the least threatening of all government members: Ed Stelmach.
Stelmach seemed a quietly efficient minister, Taft recalls, but on his feet was considered such a disaster that "it got to the point where you didn't ask him questions because you just felt bad for him."
Now, however, all such sympathies must be set aside. Stelmach became the surprising leader 15 months ago and today becomes, by necessity, the target for whatever attention the Liberals can attract to their campaign.
The Stelmach target seems to add a ring a day - early stumbles over doctors, daycare, openings on lobby legislation, etc. - but hitting it squarely has so far eluded both Liberals and NDP opponents.
Taft himself is big, square of jaw and friendly, but a dynamic speaker only by comparison to Stelmach. He has until March 3 to draw those comparisons favourably in his direction.
Taft knows he is up against the "Liberal" label, which in this province still conjures up images of Pierre Trudeau and the national energy program.
"It's a mixed brand," Taft concedes, "but one that comes with credibility." Alberta, he says, has historically been such a hotbed of new parties - some 70 having existed at one time or another - that Liberals are "the only party that has been here from the start."
Day by day, Taft has introduced new planks in the platform - a performing arts centre for Lethbridge, an aboriginal affairs ministry - but he knows fully well that whatever comes of this election will be decided by two interlocked issues: the provincial economy and energy. Taft is a climate-change believer. He wants "aggressive action" to cut emissions. Stelmach, who wants to go slow after a long period of going nowhere, hints that Taft's plans would cost the province a billion dollars and more than 300,000 jobs.
Taft, of course, scoffs at this and calls it "fear-mongering."
But he understands how easy it is to start people fretting. "If not for the oil sands," he says, "the provincial economy would be flat right now."
But he still feels that climate change is an issue of "national security" and one that will increasingly involve the entire world.
"A lot of Albertans feel like they're caught between a rock and a hard place," he says. It would be wrong, however, "to sit and twiddle our thumbs."
Ralph Klein admitted on leaving office that he had no plan. Kevin Taft hopes to take office with a solid one in place. He would wage a "war on carbon" that would obviously affect - but he believes would hardly kill - the industry. He would use increased energy royalties to create "an RRSP" for the entire province, channelling billions into the Heritage Fund, postsecondary education and various infrastructure.
And if it costs a billion, so be it. This fabulously rich province has a gross domestic product of $242-billion, he says, and "we're willing to bet Albertans will be willing to have one dollar out of 242 invested in addressing climate change."
He has three weeks to sell this plan to voters who for years seemed quite content with Ralph Klein and no plan at all.
"Where are the voters of Alberta on this?" Taft asks out loud. "Well, we're going to find out ..."

Alberta Greens claim "legitimate shot" in 2 rural ridings.

This is from 570News. There probably will not be too much coverage of the Greens so I thought I would post something! I wonder what a legitimate shot is?
Probably it means something like a one in a thousand chance! However they came second in one constituency last time so perhaps it is more like one in a hundred or even ten.Their policies are a mixed bag some tilting to the right and some to the left.

Alberta Greens claim 'legitimate shot' in 2 rural ridings in upcoming election
February 8, 2008 - 19:06 By: THE CANADIAN PRESS
CALGARY - Launching his party's 2008 election campaign from the couch of a cluttered inner-city apartment, Alberta Greens Leader George Read couldn't get more grassroots or low-budget if he tried.
But the fact that there's no buzzing war room, fancy tour buses, glossy pamphlets or other expensive advertising is clearly a source of pride for the Alberta born-and-raised Read.
And he boldly predicts that Green momentum and mounting concerns over the environment give his party a "legitimate shot" at winning at least two seats in the March 3 Alberta election.
"If you're wondering why the Green party's growing, it's because ordinary people are doing something," Read said Friday.
"They're going out and they're saying: 'You know what? That's wrong, I want it changed, how do I get it changed?' "
The party is holding campaign schools in Edmonton and Calgary this weekend and hopes to field candidates in more than 50 of the 83 ridings across Alberta.
Greens are running in each of Calgary's 23 ridings, including Read himself in Calgary North West, where he confesses to having a "long-shot" chance at winning.
The leader says Green popularity is strongest in rural Alberta, where concerns over land, air and water quality are paramount.
Whatever limited resources the party can muster are being thrown at two rural ridings where it believes there's a chance for a historic breakthrough. Currently there are no elected Green politicians in Canada above the municipal level.
Joe Anglin, a Massachusetts-born businessman who raised his profile by successfully rallying local landowners to fight a proposed power transmission line between Edmonton and Calgary, is running in Lacombe-Ponoka.
And Edwin Erikson is running again in Drayton Valley-Calmar, where he had the party's best showing in the 2004 election with a second-place finish.
When the Alberta New Democrats launched their Calgary campaign earlier this week, leader Brian Mason called the Greens "quite conservative" and predicted they would erode Liberal and Conservative support more than his own.
Mason also said votes are parked with the Greens as a safe harbour location during the campaign until "push comes to shove" on election day and they go to one of the three major parties.
Read tries to avoid getting pinned left or right on the political spectrum, saying instead that policy decisions are based on what makes sense for long-term sustainability.
To be fair, some ideas sound downright pro-business: Read advocates homeowners being able to generate solar power to sell on the provincial grid. And while he calls Alberta's controversial royalty review a "compromise on a compromise," he doesn't advocate reopening it, as the Alberta Liberals and NDP do.
But he also is a strong advocate of public health care and said a Green government would impose much stricter environmental legislation on the oilpatch.
"The people of Alberta are moving towards a green agenda, and I believe the politicians are behind."
But Peter McCormick, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge, said the Greens have been slow to get candidates and launch their campaign, and that could quickly erode support.
"This election has not exactly snuck up on anybody - it's been marching down the street with the bells going off for quite a while," said McCormick.
"Green is the colour of the new century, clearly, and considering that, I'm surprised at how low-profile they've been and how they don't seem to be coming out of the gate very quickly.
"Obviously they don't have much money, but they just don't seem to have gotten ready for this."

Alberta Liberals Unveil Their Platform

The election has now been called so the Liberals managed to announce their platform just before Stelmach called to election for March 3. Stelmach has already addressed some of the issues in the Liberal platform. However, the Liberal plans sound quite ambitious. The total cost is not set out in the article.
The Liberals will probably do well in some of the urban ridings. They managed to win Klein's old seat in Calgary. Stelmach is a rural candidate and his rural grass roots support no doubt helped him in his surprise win of the leadership. I expect that rural support for the Conservatives will be solid.

Alberta Liberals unveil election platform
Promise to cut health-care premiums, lower power rates, cap greenhouse gases in 5 years
Last Updated: Friday, February 1, 2008 12:44 PM MT
CBC News
The Alberta Liberals are off and running for a provincial election that hasn't been called yet, with promises to eliminate health-care premiums, lower electricity rates and cap greenhouse gas emissions within five years.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft announced the party's platform for the campaign — expected to start early next week — before 200 people at a University of Alberta lecture hall Thursday night.
Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft on Thursday unveiled the party's platform for the coming election.(CBC)
Taft described the coming battle as "David versus Goliath" because Liberals hold only 16 seats in the legislature, compared to 60 for the governing Conservatives. But he said people are ready for change after 36 years of Tory rule in Alberta.
"Time for change is just so pronounced among the people I think once the dam begins to break, anything can happen in this campaign," he said.
Taft acknowledged it won't be easy. "The Tories will wage an air war. They've got millions of dollars and they will bombard people with advertising and television," he said. "We'll wage a ground war. We've been preparing for that. We know where we'll go, why we'll be there and what we'll do."
There is reason for the party's optimism, said Debbie Cavaliere, Liberal candidate for Edmonton-Meadowlark, who was at the event.



"I just don't see that anything will ever change with the Tory government. They've been in power for years. Yes, they have a new leader. I don't really believe they can change from within," she said.
Other priorities in the Liberal platform include:
Train more nurses, doctors and health-care professionals.
Reduce hospital waiting times.
Bring in a pharmacare program.
Provide homeowners and businesses with $250 million for energy-efficient retrofits.
Eliminate school fees.
Reinvest 30 per cent of energy royalties in the Alberta Heritage Trust Fund and infrastructure programs.
Put a temporary cap on rent increases at 10 per cent per year.
Put a moratorium on condominium conversions.
The Liberals have nominated 79 candidates and expect to have a full slate of 83 before the election is called, Alberta Liberal Party executive director Kieran Leblanc said Friday.