Manitoba PC's present moderate budget with a few changes from NDP

The first budget introduced by the new Progressive Conservative government of Brian Pallister introduces only minor changes after the recent defeat of the former New Democratic Party (NDP).

The budget does not try to avoid a deficit. Instead is plans for a $890 million deficit at the end of its first fiscal year. Although the budget is called "Correcting the Course" it only makes modest changes. Rather than any drastic cut in government spending and austerity measures, all but two government departments will actually see their budgets rise this year. Health and social services will receive the greatest increases:

 What's now known as Manitoba Health, Seniors and Active Living will receive an additional $300 million as its budget increases to $6 billion from $5.7 billion. The budget for the new Families Department will rise $100 million, to $1.9 billion from $1.8 billion

The Conservatives, or Tories as they are called, claimed only they would balance the budget during their next term. This would be some time after 2020 if they are re-elected.

The government deficit will actually be more than twice that the NDP Greg Selinger government envisioned for 2015-16. However, the actual deficit was predicted to be around one billion. The new budget gives some tax relief to low income earners and claws back a senior's school-tax rebate brought in by the NDP but only for higher income seniors. Finance Minister Friesen said: "Tax policy must be principled Those seniors who actually need the support will continue to receive it." Friesen also promised to reduce the fees for ambulance service. The opposition NDP said that it expects the Conservatives to bring in deep cuts and an austerity program next year as they did not have time to plan for such policies as yet.

While Manitoba has balanced budget legislation, Finance Minister, Cameron Friesen, plans to suspend it in 2017 and replace it with "legislation that provides Manitoba taxpayers with enforceable protection, including the restoration of their right to vote on major tax increases". There was much opposition to NDP premier Greg Selinger increasing the provincial sales tax after promising not to do so during the election campaign. Friesen said: "This is practical. There's nothing hidden here. We are relying on the advice of experts."

One of the departments to have its budget cut is Manitoba Agriculture. The rural areas were among those most strongly supporting the Progressive Conservatives. The budget drops from $181 million to 180 million. Friesen suggested the drop was actually good news because he said commodity prices are strong and there is an expected drop in crop insurance payments.

Chris Adams, of St. Paul's College at the University of Manitoba said that the budget was "steady as she goes" with no major surprises. He said: "This wasn't a Mike Harris 'Common Sense Revolution' budget, as some people worried about. It's more in tune with what we saw from Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party when they defeated the Saskatchewan NDP in 2007.Also, the premier didn't have a lot of time to get this budget together, so he's really taken what was happening over the past number of years and fine-tuned it. I think next year we'll see some bigger changes."The Harris Ontario provincial budget was very right-wing and ideological whereas the Wall government has been careful not to alter popular social programs associated with the left and NDP. As a result, it has high popularity ratings. However, Adams did note that the budget did not highlight child care, Indigenous issues, or labor issues as the previous NDP government had one.

The Conservatives managed to break with the tradition of showing off a new pair of shoes when they introduce their first budget. Finance Minister, Cameron Friesen, said: "We thought in our first budget as Manitoba government, rather than do something empty to satisfy a tradition, we would instead follow the Manitoba values of inclusiveness and generosity." Friesen gave new pairs of sneakers to the Teweldes, an Eritrean family of five, who recently relocated to Winnipeg via Sudan. Friesen said that as a father of three he understood how little costs add up:"It's tough for families to make those ends meet, Today we're helping this family in one small way." He said that the government would save families money by not raising taxes. 3,000 refugees are expected to be brought to Manitoba over the next year.

Manitoba's Tories win huge majority ending the long NDP reign

As expected, the ruling New Democratic Party(NDP) in Manitoba led by Greg Selinger lost power last night as the Progressive Conservatives(PC), under leader Brian Pallister won a huge majority.

The polls just before the election were not too far off the actual result. The CBC Poll Tracker had predicted from an average of polls that the PCs would win 42 seats whereas they actually won 40. The NDP were expected only to win 11 but they won 14. The Liberals were predicted to win 4 and won 3. In 2011, NDP won 37 seats while the Conservatives managed just 19, and the Liberals just a single seat. The Greens did not win any seats but came close in one.

Greg Selinger, resigned as leader of the NDP after the results were announced. Selinger was re-elected as MLA for St. Boniface by a considerable margin but given that the NDP only won a little over a third what it had at dissolution he no doubt felt he should resign. He said: "In a democracy, friends, the people are always right, the collective wisdom of Manitobans has to be respected, Tonight as we examine the results ... I have offered my resignation."​Selinger said that his resignation would take effect immediately. He asked the party to appoint an interim leader. Sellinger had raised the Manitoba sales tax to 8 percent after promising during the previous election campaign that he would not. Selinger had opposition to his leadership within his own party with 5 cabinet minister criticizing him. There was a leadership review that Selinger managed to survive. However, the NDP share of the popular vote declined while the Conservatives gained. The NDP had been in office since 1999.

The Liberal leader, Rena Bokhari, came third in her own constituency in spite of the fact that the party managed to win three seats compared to one last election. It won two seats in Winnipeg and scored a surprise victory in the north.

The PC's performance was its best in modern history with 53 percent of the vote and winning 40 seats. In 1977 the PC's managed 36 seats and 49 percent of the vote. As usual, the PCs did quite well in rural Manitoba winning 23 seats but they also won 17 in the city of Winnipeg. The PC easily defeated incumbent Drew Caldwell in the City of Brandon's Brandon East constituency with PC Len Isleifson winning by over one thousand votes. I live in the rural constituency of Riding Mountain where the PC candidate Greg Nesbitt won over the second place Liberal by more than 4 thousand votes. The NDP candidate came in last just behind the third place Green candidate. The NDP now only holds seats in Winnipeg and northern Manitoba.

The election set a record for the number of declined ballots. A declined ballot is equivalent to voting "none of the above". The voter simply writes the word "decline" on the front of the ballot and it is then officially registered as declined. In 1999 a record 1,129 voters declined ballots but yesterday a whopping 4,016 voters cast declined ballots almost one percent of the vote.

Conservatives still far ahead in polls as Manitoba election approaches

A new poll by Insight Manitoba polling finds that the Liberal Party has dropped from having 19 percent approval to just 13 percent in the capital and main city of Manitoba, Winnipeg.

 

The vote for the incumbent New Democratic Party (NDP) and Progressive Conservative(PC) has gone up. The NDP went from 21 percent to 24 percent and the PCs, led by Brian Pallister, rose to 38 percent from 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to just 17 percent. This is still quite a significant number with less than two weeks before the election on April 19. The poll results came as a surprise to the three main figures behind Insight Manitoba who are all Liberals.

Province-wide figures show the PCs at 42 percent, NDP at 22 percent and Liberals at 15 percent. The Greens are at 5 percent with 16 percent still undecided. A political analyst at the University of Manitoba, Royce Koop said that the dropping Liberal support would help the NDP most. In Winnipeg in particular, the NDP could loose seats if Liberals gain votes from the NDP. The Conservatives could take more seats.

As a recent article points out the Liberal party not only has a relatively unknown leader Rana Bokhari but has made numerous gaffes during the campaign. A candidate in Brandon west, Billy Moore, suggested that hospitals should be shut down as a means of cutting waiting lists. He later said it was a publicity stunt. The Liberals accidentally emailed almost every journalist in the province urging them not to say negative things about party leader Bokhari. It did not stop negative remarks about the party as this article shows: And the Liberals? They just seem lost. They've lost six candidates in the past week, lost an entire year in their fiscal plan, and lost their minds when they suggested spending $20 million to build a year-round fresh food market in a refurbished heritage building in downtown Winnipeg. If that idea sounds familiar, it’s because it already exists. It’s called The Forks.

Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives also has had his share of gaffes but they are quite old. Opponents no doubt collect these to use them during campaigns. I have included two memorable occasions when Pallister probably should have had his remarks vetted before being released on video. Pallister should not worry though as it looks as if he is headed for a majority government.

The most recent poll tracker results updated as of March 31 see the PCs as far ahead. In popular vote, the PC's had 44.8 per cent, the NDP 23.4 and the Liberals 23.9 with the Greens at 7.7 The Insight Poll shows a huge drop in the Liberal vote. Seat projections show the PC's with 40, the NDP with 11 and the Liberals six. However, with the decline in the Liberal vote in Winnipeg the NDP could come out with quite a few more seats.

Manitoba Premier, Greg Selinger, to run again for NDP provincial leader

The beleaguered premier of Manitoba, Greg Selinger, is running to retain his leadership of the Manitoba New Democratic Party(NDP) at a convention to be held on March 8.

Selinger faced a recent revolt by five cabinet ministers who criticized Selinger and suggested he step down as premier. The five ended up resigning but continue as NDP members and will support government legislation.Two of the ministers have filed papers to run for the leadership. Selinger filed his nomination papers at the NDP provincial office in Winnipeg. At the same time he defended his decision to raise the provincial sales tax to 8 per cent from 7. The decision was very unpopular since during the election campaign he had promised not to raise the tax.

 Selinger will continue to be premier during the leadership race and said: “I plan to make my first responsibility governing is for the people of Manitoba. There is a leadership contest going on. That will be the second priority in the sense that your first duty is to serve the people of Manitoba.” 

Theresa Oswald, formerly Minister for Jobs and the Economy, was first to enter the leadership fray on December 19th followed by former Transportation Minister Steve Ashton. Ashton has promised to promote local food and social enterprises in a speech made at Local Meats and Frozen Treats, a company selling made-in-Manitoba products. Ashton also called for a referendum on the increase in the sales tax, an obvious challenge to Selinger.

 Oswald has the endorsement of two Winnipeg city councillors. On the campaign trail Oswald said: "Premier Selinger has served this province with dedication for many years and it's been an honour to work together on important programs for Manitobans, including free cancer drugs for all patients, expanding home care for seniors and introducing the Rent Assist housing benefit for low income families.I look forward to a respectful, constructive and honest debate about who is the right man or woman to renew our party, regain the confidence and trust of Manitobans and ensure the NDP is competitive going into the next election."  

Selinger has the dubious distinction of being Canada's least popular premier with an approval rating of just 17 per cent. Next door in Saskatchewan Brad Wall of the conservative-leaning Saskatchewan Party is the most popular at a 65 per cent rating. Political scientist, Alan Mills, of the University of Winnipeg said that the NDP will lose the next election unless they dump Selinger: "I think with him as the leader, the NDP is a dead duck." 

 While the next election could be more than a year away, the NDP has a large gap to bridge between its support and that for the Conservatives. A recent poll in December puts their support at just 26 percent of decided voters. This is tied with the lowest level for the party ever recorded by Probe Research in December of 2013 just a year ago. The Progressive Conservatives(PC) have improved from 42 percent in September to 48 percent now giving them a comfortable 12 percent lead over the NDP, although the PC vote is much stronger in rural areas than in the city of Winnipeg. The Liberal Party has the support of 19 percent of voters a drop of one percent since September.

Manitoba NDP leader Sellinger faces leadership race next March

On Saturday, the ruling provincial Manitoba New Democratic Party held an emergency executive meeting in Winnipeg to discuss dissent within the party with criticism being directed at Premier Greg Selinger by a number of cabinet ministers.

The meeting lasted a full four hours beginning at 10 AM in the morning. Selinger was able to convince the executive that the solution to the crisis was to hold a leadership convention at the party's annual convention March 6, 2015. Selinger was smiling when he emerged from the long meeting and said: “I’m happy that we’ve found a democratic way to make decisions. That’s always been the tradition of our party." Selinger would not comment when asked by a reporter whether some executive members wanted to hold an earlier leadership race claiming that those were "internal discussions".
 Party president, Ellen Offert, said that a committee will soon be set up that will formulate the ground rules for the leadership race. The rules will need to be approved by the party executive and the larger provincial council. The council will be meeting next on December 6th. Offert said: "In terms of the timing, I think the timing is available. I think it can be set up to be fair. We want to be fair for everyone." Selinger was upbeat about the process claiming that it was a democratic way of solving the dispute: "It put democracy at the forefront on how we make decisions. It allows us as legislators to get back to our number one priority, which is serving the people of Manitoba."
 Five senior cabinet ministers recently publicly criticized Selinger for his performance. The party is plagued by low poll numbers. Selinger lost considerable public support when he raised the provincial sales tax from 7 to 8 per cent. There are other provinces such as neighboring Ontario that have the same rate and others such as Quebec have an even higher rate. However, Selinger had promised not to raise the tax in his last campaign and was unable to convince many that breaking his promise was justified. The five cabinet members who criticized Selinger resigned.
 Selinger furher punished the five members by removing some of their caucus privileges. While the five remain members of the party they will not be allowed to attend caucus meetings or have any input into decisions. The government will set out its plans for next year in a throne speech that starts a two-week fall session of the Manitoba legislature.
The next election in Manitoba will probably not be until April of 2016: A federal election is slated for the fall of 2015, so the provincial election is to be pushed back to April 19, 2016, unless the federal government changes its date. This will give the NDP time to try and improve their position in the polls.
  A recent poll published October 9 shows the Conservatives with a twelve point lead over the NDP with the Conservatives having 42 per cent support among decided voters. However, this is down somewhat from a June poll that showed 45 per cent support. The Liberal party has 20 per cent support much higher than usual. Conservative support is very strong outside of Winnipeg with only Brandon and northern Manitoba for the most part showing support for or electing NDP members. The NDP and Conservatives are still neck in neck in Winnipeg.
 The NDP has been in power in Manitoba since 1999. After premier Gary Doer resigned to take a position as Canadian ambassador to the US to serve Stephen Harper's Conservative government, Selinger led the party into the 2011 election. Doer had been popular and there were some gloomy predictions about how Selinger would perform. He won 37 seats one more than the previous record set by Doer and a comfortable majority in the legislature.

Manitoba NDP premier faces internal political crisis

The last four elections, fifteen years, Manitoba has elected the New Democrats to rule the province. Even though during the last election Greg Selinger the leader of the party and premier won a resounding majority he is facing internal criticism.

Several senior cabinet ministers in Sellinger's government publicly spoke out about public dissatisfaction with the premier's performance. Five ministers and one former minister spoke out on Monday and Tuesday of this week: "..Justice Minister Andrew Swan, Jobs and the Economy Minister Theresa Oswald, Health Minister Erin Selby, Local Government Minister Stan Struthers, Finance Minister Jennifer Howard and former labour minister Becky Barrett — suggested that Selinger should consider his future and come to a decision that is in the best interests of the government and the province. " Selinger did not take the hint and announce his resignation or even a leadership review. He announced he intends to lead the NDP in the next election.
No Manitoba premier has ever been ousted by his party midway through his term and leading a majority government. The only time that an NDP premier lost power in Manitoba was in 1988. Howard Pawley resigned but only because he lost a confidence vote when an NDP member voted against his own party's budget. The NDP has 35 of the 57 seats in the legislature so at least 7 party members would need to vote against any legislation to bring the government down and force an election. No doubt few party members want that to happen since the party would likely lose the election.
 The New Democratic Party is regarded as on the left of the political spectrum. However, the Manitoba NDP has been far from radical. The former premier Gary Doer was arguably much better at communicating with the public then Greg Sellinger who was a social work professor and then a finance minister. Doer was chosen by Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper to be Canadian ambassador to the United States. This gives an indication of how far to the left Doer was. He is now no doubt busy selling the merits of Tar Sands development in Washington.
Becky Barret, a former labour minister said that Selinger made a mistake in not stepping down for the party's sake. She thinks that if he stays on the NDP will lose to the Conservatives: "He missed that opportunity. He didn't take that decisive leadership role and I'm very disappointed that didn't happen,"
Selinger lost a great deal of support when he changed his position on raising the provincial sales tax. In his 2011 election campaign he promised not to raise the provincial sales tax from 7 to 8 percent but then in July of 2013 he did exactly that. At least he kept his promise for about two years, not too bad for a politician. Several other provinces also have eight per cent sales tax including Ontario next door to Manitoba. Quebec has almost a ten percent tax and Nova Scotia's tax is also ten. Manitoba is hardly exceptional. The exceptional province is Alberta with no sales tax at all. Barrett complained that Selinger has never been able to explain to the people why he changed his mind on the tax and as a result has lost the trust of the people.
 Given that Selinger has decided not to resign, a cabinet shuffle can be expected with those ministers who have publicly criticized the premier losing their portfolios. As Selinger delicately phrased it: "I've said all options are available as we move forward. Every year we review how we've been doing together and cabinet shuffles are often one of the alternatives that are available to you,"
 Allen Mills, a political science prof. at the University of Winnipeg said of Selinger: "He has a political crisis on his hands in the form of, well, five cabinet ministers that clearly challenged his authority and did so publicly. And it seems to me that in the norms of the parliamentary system, they either have to resign or he has to fire them." Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba also noted that the situation was very dramatic and unprecedented in the modern political era.
  Probe Research in an October 9th poll done for the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV showed the Progressive Conservatives with a 12 point percentage lead over the New Democrats:The Progressive Conservatives currently have the support of 42 percent of decided Manitoba voters, down slightly from the level of support the party recorded in June (-3%). Three-in-ten decided voters, meanwhile, would cast a ballot for the New Democratic Party in a hypothetical general election (30%, down from 32% in June). One-in-five voters (20%) now prefer the provincial Liberals – which marks a slight increase (+4%) since the last Probe Research survey in June. Eight percent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Green Party or other parties not represented in the Legislature. The last election was on October 4, 2011 but the next election is not expected until April of 2016. This gives the NDP a considerable length of time to rebuild the party and public trust but there is no guarantee this will happen. Governments sometimes are able to create the conditions for their own defeat.