Manitoba Premier Greg Sellinger survives bitter leadership battle

- Manitoba Premier Greg Sellinger was able to fend off two challengers at the New Democratic Party leadership convention held in Winnipeg on Sunday.

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Premier Sellinger was challenged by Steve Ashton, the MLA for the northern constituency of Thompson, and Theresa Oswald. Oswald was one of the so-called Gang of Five cabinet ministers who challenged Sellinger's leadership last fall along with Jennifer Howard, Erin Selby, Stan Struthers, and Andrew Swan. She along with others resigned their cabinet positions in early November last year. One result of the challenge was the present convention and leadership race.

Ashton was a candidate who attempted to be the peacemaker whose aim was to unite the party. At first, he seemed to have the most support but the first ballot showed him trailing. Ashton received 502 votes, Oswald 575, and Sellinger 612. A list of who was supported by unions, MLA's and others is given in this article.

SInce Ashton came third on the first ballot, he was dropped out of the race leaving just Sellinger and Oswald on the second ballot. Ashton had stayed above the conflict between Sellinger and his critics. He stayed consistent on the issue and left his delegates to make up their own mind how to vote on the final ballot. One block of strong union supporters of Ashton moved over towards the Sellinger bloc. However, the final vote was close and Ashton's voters split fairly evenly.

In the final tally Sellinger receive 759 votes to 726 for Oswald only a 33 vote margin. However, Sellinger loyalists won key positions in elections for the party executive including First Nations leader Ovide Mercredi who was elected party president. The next election will probably take place in April next year. However, Selligner will face an uphill battle to rebuild and promote his party that is lagging in the polls. In 2011 Sellinger led the NDP to a record 37 of 57 seats in the legislature. However, the party is now quite unpopular and has been in power for 16 years. One reason for the party's decline in the polls is Sellinger's raising the Maitoba sales tax from 7 to 8 percent. This is not out of line with the rates in several other provinces but he had promised during the campaign that he would not raise the tax. A Probe Research poll last December showed that support for the NDP had dropped to a new low:One-in-four decided Manitoba voters (26%) would now cast a ballot for a NDP candidate. This is down four percentage points from September and is tied with the party’s lowest-ever level of support previously recorded in a Probe Research Inc. quarterly survey (26% in December 2013).The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, are surging (48%, up from 42% in September). Province-wide, the Liberals continue to enjoy the support of one-in-five voters (19%, -1% versus September). .. Seven percent of voters, meanwhile, would cast ballots for the Green Party and other parties not represented in the Legislature (-1% versus September). Fourteen percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The NDP has a huge gap to overcome to win over the Progressive Conservatives in the next election. The statistics may be somewhat misleading in that the PCs have always had a huge lead in many rural areas whereas the NDP usually takes many of the seats in the largest city, Winnipeg. However, the PCs at present even have a small lead in Winnipeg in the polls.

Manitoba NDP leader Sellinger faces leadership race next March

On Saturday, the ruling provincial Manitoba New Democratic Party held an emergency executive meeting in Winnipeg to discuss dissent within the party with criticism being directed at Premier Greg Selinger by a number of cabinet ministers.

The meeting lasted a full four hours beginning at 10 AM in the morning. Selinger was able to convince the executive that the solution to the crisis was to hold a leadership convention at the party's annual convention March 6, 2015. Selinger was smiling when he emerged from the long meeting and said: “I’m happy that we’ve found a democratic way to make decisions. That’s always been the tradition of our party." Selinger would not comment when asked by a reporter whether some executive members wanted to hold an earlier leadership race claiming that those were "internal discussions".
 Party president, Ellen Offert, said that a committee will soon be set up that will formulate the ground rules for the leadership race. The rules will need to be approved by the party executive and the larger provincial council. The council will be meeting next on December 6th. Offert said: "In terms of the timing, I think the timing is available. I think it can be set up to be fair. We want to be fair for everyone." Selinger was upbeat about the process claiming that it was a democratic way of solving the dispute: "It put democracy at the forefront on how we make decisions. It allows us as legislators to get back to our number one priority, which is serving the people of Manitoba."
 Five senior cabinet ministers recently publicly criticized Selinger for his performance. The party is plagued by low poll numbers. Selinger lost considerable public support when he raised the provincial sales tax from 7 to 8 per cent. There are other provinces such as neighboring Ontario that have the same rate and others such as Quebec have an even higher rate. However, Selinger had promised not to raise the tax in his last campaign and was unable to convince many that breaking his promise was justified. The five cabinet members who criticized Selinger resigned.
 Selinger furher punished the five members by removing some of their caucus privileges. While the five remain members of the party they will not be allowed to attend caucus meetings or have any input into decisions. The government will set out its plans for next year in a throne speech that starts a two-week fall session of the Manitoba legislature.
The next election in Manitoba will probably not be until April of 2016: A federal election is slated for the fall of 2015, so the provincial election is to be pushed back to April 19, 2016, unless the federal government changes its date. This will give the NDP time to try and improve their position in the polls.
  A recent poll published October 9 shows the Conservatives with a twelve point lead over the NDP with the Conservatives having 42 per cent support among decided voters. However, this is down somewhat from a June poll that showed 45 per cent support. The Liberal party has 20 per cent support much higher than usual. Conservative support is very strong outside of Winnipeg with only Brandon and northern Manitoba for the most part showing support for or electing NDP members. The NDP and Conservatives are still neck in neck in Winnipeg.
 The NDP has been in power in Manitoba since 1999. After premier Gary Doer resigned to take a position as Canadian ambassador to the US to serve Stephen Harper's Conservative government, Selinger led the party into the 2011 election. Doer had been popular and there were some gloomy predictions about how Selinger would perform. He won 37 seats one more than the previous record set by Doer and a comfortable majority in the legislature.

New Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger

There does not seem to have been much dissension during the convention. Both candidates were well known and safe more or less middle of the road although Ashton seemed to offer more promises and is very well liked in the north. There will likely be little change in policy. The NDP in Manitoba is tame enough that outgoing premier Gary Doer was chosen to serve as the Harper government ambassador to the U.S. Apparently the NDP thinks this is just fine and does not reflect upon their political direction. While Greyhound is trying to extort subsidies etc. from the government therre is no suggestion in discussions that the NDP might follow the lead of the Sask. govt. and create a provincial bus service. That would be far too radical I suppose.

Canada's newest premier former community activist, number-cruncher
By Steve Lambert And Chinta Puxley (CP) – 16 hours ago
WINNIPEG — As Manitobta premier for the last decade, Gary Doer straddled demands for increased social change with business tax cuts.
The province's next premier isn't expected to diverge from that path.
Former Finance Minister and premier-designate Greg Selinger has long had a foot in both worlds.
A former community activist in the inner-city, he was educated at the upper-crust London School of Economics.
During a decade as Manitoba's finance minister, he cut personal and business taxes in a bid to boost the economy, yet maintained a reputation for pursuing social justice and won the support of many labour groups in his bid to become premier.
After a day of talking with business leaders and fellow politicians inside the stately legislative building, he dresses down and bicycles back to his constituency in Winnipeg's St. Boniface district, where he is known as a grassroots politician who has worked to enhance French-language services.
Selinger, who was elected Saturday as Manitoba's new NDP leader and premier, is both an economics wonk and a believer in a big social safety net.
"We are determined to act in the face of economic threats, but we will not let those threats determine our future," Selinger told delegates Saturday.
"We will set our own course for the future of Manitoba. If we want an economy that meets the needs and respects the environment, we can't rely on outdated policies. We need innovation, imagination and investment, not just tax cuts."
Selinger, 58, grew up the son of a single mother in the middle-class St. James neighbourhood of Winnipeg. He became a social worker in the city's poverty-stricken north end.
He saw some of the city's poorest get involved with loansharks - something that would prompt him, three decades later, to set strict limits on interest rates for short-term lenders, including payday loan companies.
"I've taken those lessons," he told delegates gathered Saturday. "I've tried to apply them to politics."
He earned a PhD at the London School of Economics, and took an interest in how economics are affected by government policies.
In 1979, Selinger founded Winnipeg's Community Economic Development Association, which helps inner-city residents access social programs and start small businesses. He was elected to city council in 1989 and chaired the city's finance committee.
Union leader Paul Moist, national president of CUPE, worked with Selinger when he was on city council.
"We've got a guy who is a very educated man. He cut his teeth in the heart of Winnipeg, one of the poorest areas of Winnipeg," Moist said on the convention floor Saturday.
"He understands the social challenges facing Winnipeg particularly, and Manitoba. But he also understands that Manitobans are a progressive, but really a socially conservative population as well."
Selinger lost a bid for mayor in 1992, and jumped to provincial politics in 1999, winning the St. Boniface seat and being named finance minister for the new NDP government.
"After (Doer) won in 1999, he had one person in mind and only one person in mind to make minister of finance," Moist said. "That was Greg Selinger."
As keeper of the public purse, Selinger rode a middle ground, cutting small business and personal income taxes and boosting spending on hospitals, community colleges and social housing.
Among his boldest moves was to cut the income tax rate for small businesses, from eight per cent in 1999 to zero by 2010.
He has had many critics.
Businesses have complained that his tax cuts paled in comparison to those in Saskatchewan and other provinces, while social activists have said welfare rates were not keeping pace with inflation.
But the middle-of-the-road approach helped the NDP capture larger majorities in 2003 and 2007. The NDP even managed to steal longtime Tory strongholds in Winnipeg's well-to-do suburbs.
That approach is unlikely to change with Selinger in the premier's chair. He takes great pains to stress that he wants to continue the work done by Gary Doer, whose popularity with voters never waned.
"I think everyone understands that we're heading into turbulent times," said Conservation Minister Stan Struthers, a Selinger supporter after his first pick, Andrew Swan, dropped out of the race.
"We need somebody who understands that. We need somebody who's got the experience of 10 balanced budgets under his belt."
While all 10 of his budgets have been balanced under provincial law, many were in fact deficits under the normal accounting rules used by Ottawa and other provinces. Manitoba's overall debt has continued to grow.
Selinger also came under fire in 2007 following the meltdown of the Crocus Investment Fund, a labour-sponsored venture fund set up by the province. A leaked cabinet memo showed Selinger warned his fellow ministers in 2000 that Crocus was facing financial troubles, but the public was never told. Five years later, the fund went into receivership, leaving 34,000 investors wondering whether they could recoup their money.
The government responded to the controversy by saying the fund was run by an arm's-length board, and the province was not responsible for its performance. The affair didn't put a dent in the NDP's popularity.
On a personal level, Selinger acknowledges his new role will require him to spend a lot more time in front of television cameras and at public events. He and his wife, Claudette Toupin, have two sons.
It will be a big change for a man who appears more comfortable discussing government policy in small groups than glad-handing in crowds or speaking to large audiences.
"Greg Selinger is a very warm person actually. He may strike people at first glance as reserved," Moist said. "He's not the first one to the microphone."
Selinger himself says he's ready for the high profile.
"I think the role means you're more in the public eye, you're more out of the (legislative) building as opposed to being in the building when you're the finance minister working on budgets," he said recently.
"But the reality is that the overall purpose is the same - how to grow the economy, how to make sure all your citizens can participate in society and the economy, and to do it in such a way that you bring people together along the way."
Copyright © 2009 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

The Manitoba NDP leadership campaign

There does not seem to be any huge conflict between the two leadership candidates. For years the Manitoba NDP has been very much middle of the road, a policy that seems to have paid off in that Doer was re-elected last time with little difficulty. Manitoba is one of the better off provinces as far as the recession is concerned so the NDP could be re-elected next time as well unless they make some serious missteps.

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
NDP leadership race: The policy debate
By: Larry Kusch
Steve Ashton and Greg Selinger do not appear to be far apart ideologically. But Ashton's campaign promises were often bold and provocative, with several carrying heavy price tags, while Selinger's were more modest and often extensions of current government policy.

Ashton's promises included:

"ö Redeveloping CPR's Weston Yards as a home for new housing, commercial development and green space. Province to spend $50 million over five years.
"ö $250 million over 10 years to help revitalize Winnipeg's Exchange District.
"ö A Manitoba Dignity Act targeting discriminatory, demeaning or racist acts.
"ö Personally supervising a crime-prevention strategy that targets gangs and increases support for community policing.
"ö Passing a law to prevent Winnipeg from privatizing its water supply.
"ö Immediately committing to funding one-third the cost of a $250-million second rapid-transit corridor, this one to the east side of the city.
"ö Introducing anti-poverty legislation that sets out targets and measures for combating poverty.

Selinger's promises included:

"ö Extending the fitness tax credit now offered to kids, to adults.
"ö Boosting affordable housing in Manitoba by building 300 new units per year for the next five years.
"ö Fast-tracking income tax refunds on post-secondary tuition fees to students who remain in Manitoba after graduation.
"ö Creating a fund to help more small businesses get established in Manitoba.
"ö Developing a well-trained workforce by improving high school graduation rates, encouraging more collaboration between business and post-secondary institutions and expanding the use of co-op education tax credits.
"ö Using green technology to drive economic growth, including commitments to getting more plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the road and creating a centre of excellence at Red River Col--lege to convert more existing hybrid vehicles to plug-in hybrids.
"ö Improving training, economic opportunities and services for northern and aboriginal people.

Notable disagreements:

UNIVERSITY TUITION

Ashton promised to bring back a freeze on university tuition fees. Selinger rejected that solution to making post-secondary education more affordable, instead pledging to fast-track tuition fee tax rebates to students who plan to remain in Manitoba after graduation.

ANTI-SCAB LEGISLATION

Ashton said he is prepared to bring in legislation banning the use of replacement workers by employers in the event of a strike. But a spokesman for Selinger said the former finance minister had no such plans, preferring to continue to build a labour climate where strikes and lockouts can be avoided.

Manitoba NDP plan for leadership convention

There should be enough candidates to choose from to replace Doer but none will have as prominent a profile as Doer. Blaikie is probably the best known but as the article notes there are plenty of other potential contenders.
I find it strange that everyone in the Manitoba NDP is applauding Doer for accepting the appointment. Apparently it makes no difference that he will be serving under a Conservative right wing government whose policies in most cases are completely at odds with the NDP!


Man. NDP plan for leadership convention

CBC News
Premier Gary Doer meets with reporters on Parliament Hill Friday following his appointment as ambassador to the United States. (CBC)
Manitoba's New Democrats are meeting Monday to plan for a leadership convention to replace outgoing Premier Gary Doer.
Doer was introduced Friday in Ottawa as Canada's next ambassador to the United States, a day after surprising many political observers by announcing he was stepping down as premier.
No one in the party is tipping their hand as to who Doer's possible successor might be. Bill Blaikie, the popular former NDP MP who is now a provincial MLA, is widely viewed as an obvious choice.
Potential candidates also include high-profile MLAs such as Finance Minister Greg Selinger, Health Minister Theresa Oswald, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Steve Ashton and federal MP Pat Martin, among others.
When Ashton called a press conference Friday afternoon, there was speculation it was to announce he was throwing his hat into the leadership ring. Instead, Ashton told reporters the day belongs to Doer and that the entire cabinet is proud of his appointment.
When pressed on whether he would take a shot at the premier's chair, Ashton was non-committal but said he expects it to be a great race because there are several strong candidates.