Manitoba's Tories win huge majority ending the long NDP reign

As expected, the ruling New Democratic Party(NDP) in Manitoba led by Greg Selinger lost power last night as the Progressive Conservatives(PC), under leader Brian Pallister won a huge majority.

The polls just before the election were not too far off the actual result. The CBC Poll Tracker had predicted from an average of polls that the PCs would win 42 seats whereas they actually won 40. The NDP were expected only to win 11 but they won 14. The Liberals were predicted to win 4 and won 3. In 2011, NDP won 37 seats while the Conservatives managed just 19, and the Liberals just a single seat. The Greens did not win any seats but came close in one.

Greg Selinger, resigned as leader of the NDP after the results were announced. Selinger was re-elected as MLA for St. Boniface by a considerable margin but given that the NDP only won a little over a third what it had at dissolution he no doubt felt he should resign. He said: "In a democracy, friends, the people are always right, the collective wisdom of Manitobans has to be respected, Tonight as we examine the results ... I have offered my resignation."​Selinger said that his resignation would take effect immediately. He asked the party to appoint an interim leader. Sellinger had raised the Manitoba sales tax to 8 percent after promising during the previous election campaign that he would not. Selinger had opposition to his leadership within his own party with 5 cabinet minister criticizing him. There was a leadership review that Selinger managed to survive. However, the NDP share of the popular vote declined while the Conservatives gained. The NDP had been in office since 1999.

The Liberal leader, Rena Bokhari, came third in her own constituency in spite of the fact that the party managed to win three seats compared to one last election. It won two seats in Winnipeg and scored a surprise victory in the north.

The PC's performance was its best in modern history with 53 percent of the vote and winning 40 seats. In 1977 the PC's managed 36 seats and 49 percent of the vote. As usual, the PCs did quite well in rural Manitoba winning 23 seats but they also won 17 in the city of Winnipeg. The PC easily defeated incumbent Drew Caldwell in the City of Brandon's Brandon East constituency with PC Len Isleifson winning by over one thousand votes. I live in the rural constituency of Riding Mountain where the PC candidate Greg Nesbitt won over the second place Liberal by more than 4 thousand votes. The NDP candidate came in last just behind the third place Green candidate. The NDP now only holds seats in Winnipeg and northern Manitoba.

The election set a record for the number of declined ballots. A declined ballot is equivalent to voting "none of the above". The voter simply writes the word "decline" on the front of the ballot and it is then officially registered as declined. In 1999 a record 1,129 voters declined ballots but yesterday a whopping 4,016 voters cast declined ballots almost one percent of the vote.

Conservatives still far ahead in polls as Manitoba election approaches

A new poll by Insight Manitoba polling finds that the Liberal Party has dropped from having 19 percent approval to just 13 percent in the capital and main city of Manitoba, Winnipeg.

 

The vote for the incumbent New Democratic Party (NDP) and Progressive Conservative(PC) has gone up. The NDP went from 21 percent to 24 percent and the PCs, led by Brian Pallister, rose to 38 percent from 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to just 17 percent. This is still quite a significant number with less than two weeks before the election on April 19. The poll results came as a surprise to the three main figures behind Insight Manitoba who are all Liberals.

Province-wide figures show the PCs at 42 percent, NDP at 22 percent and Liberals at 15 percent. The Greens are at 5 percent with 16 percent still undecided. A political analyst at the University of Manitoba, Royce Koop said that the dropping Liberal support would help the NDP most. In Winnipeg in particular, the NDP could loose seats if Liberals gain votes from the NDP. The Conservatives could take more seats.

As a recent article points out the Liberal party not only has a relatively unknown leader Rana Bokhari but has made numerous gaffes during the campaign. A candidate in Brandon west, Billy Moore, suggested that hospitals should be shut down as a means of cutting waiting lists. He later said it was a publicity stunt. The Liberals accidentally emailed almost every journalist in the province urging them not to say negative things about party leader Bokhari. It did not stop negative remarks about the party as this article shows: And the Liberals? They just seem lost. They've lost six candidates in the past week, lost an entire year in their fiscal plan, and lost their minds when they suggested spending $20 million to build a year-round fresh food market in a refurbished heritage building in downtown Winnipeg. If that idea sounds familiar, it’s because it already exists. It’s called The Forks.

Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives also has had his share of gaffes but they are quite old. Opponents no doubt collect these to use them during campaigns. I have included two memorable occasions when Pallister probably should have had his remarks vetted before being released on video. Pallister should not worry though as it looks as if he is headed for a majority government.

The most recent poll tracker results updated as of March 31 see the PCs as far ahead. In popular vote, the PC's had 44.8 per cent, the NDP 23.4 and the Liberals 23.9 with the Greens at 7.7 The Insight Poll shows a huge drop in the Liberal vote. Seat projections show the PC's with 40, the NDP with 11 and the Liberals six. However, with the decline in the Liberal vote in Winnipeg the NDP could come out with quite a few more seats.

Polls indicate Progressive Conservatives should win Manitoba provincial election

Polls indicate that the Progressive Conservatives(PC) are far ahead of the reigning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Liberals with the Manitoba provincial election a little more than a month away on April 19.

At dissolution the NDP held 35 seats, the Progressive Conservatives 19 and the Liberals just one. Two seats are vacant. The NDP went through a crisis last year when five cabinet ministers revolted and challenged the leadership of Greg Sellinger and resigned from his cabinet.. Sellinger won in a subsequent leadership review. While dissension appears to have lessened, a total of nine sitting NDP members are not running in this election,. Perhaps they see the writing on the wall.

Two recent polls show the uphill battle facing the NDP. A Forum Research Poll on March 13th showed: NDP, 22 percent of the vote; PC, 46 percent, and Liberals 23 percent The Green Party had 8 percent.. A Mainstreet Technologies poll on March12th showed: NDP, 27 percent; PC, 43 percent, with Liberals at 24 percent. The Greens had 7 percent. Both polls show the NDP is far behind the PC's. A January poll showed the PC's even higher at 52 percent. A CBC article on January 27 noted:The PCs led in Winnipeg with 46 per cent support, an increase of nine points. The NDP was down to 23 per cent, while the Liberals slipped six points to 21 per cent.The situation may have changed by now. The PCs dominate outside of Winnipeg, Brandon, and the north. The PCs win by large margins in most rural areas. The Liberals could win many more seats in Winnipeg this election. If NDP voters decide the Liberals are the best party to stop a PC victory, the NDP could lose many Winnipeg seats. However, a split between NDP and the Liberals in Winnipeg could end up with the PCs winning many more seats.

Among NDP members who have thrown in the towel is Jennifer Howard. As the CBC reports:The MLA for Fort Rouge said her priorities have changed since she had children, and she is choosing to spend more time with her family. Howard said she has taken a job in Ottawa that she declined to discuss and will be moving there with her wife, Tara Peel, and their two children, four-year-old Harry and eight-month-old Georgia.Howard was one of the five cabinet ministers who wanted Sellinger to resign. Howard was a student of mine at Brandon University, an A student. The NDP is losing her along with a number of other competent MLA's who are not running.

In the case of Howard, the NDP has been fortunate to attract a well-qualified candidate to run instead of Howard.in the Fort Rouge riding, Wab Kinew. Howard said of Kinew: "Whenever you contemplate leaving something, one of your big worries is who is going to be there, in whose hands do you leave all of the work, I know those things are going to be in good hands." Kinew is from the Onigaming First Nation in northwestern Ontario but is also associate vice-president of indigenous affairs at the University of Winnipeg. He is also a former broadcaster at the CBC. Kinew will be running against the new Liberal leader Rana Bokhari and PC candidate Audrey Gordon. Karine Levasseur, associate professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba said that the popularity of Kinew could help the NDP and challenge Liberal Leader Bokhari.

UPDATE: Here is some poll tracker data. The seat projections are dismal for the NDP with the PC's winning a huge majority.

Manitoba Premier, Greg Selinger, to run again for NDP provincial leader

The beleaguered premier of Manitoba, Greg Selinger, is running to retain his leadership of the Manitoba New Democratic Party(NDP) at a convention to be held on March 8.

Selinger faced a recent revolt by five cabinet ministers who criticized Selinger and suggested he step down as premier. The five ended up resigning but continue as NDP members and will support government legislation.Two of the ministers have filed papers to run for the leadership. Selinger filed his nomination papers at the NDP provincial office in Winnipeg. At the same time he defended his decision to raise the provincial sales tax to 8 per cent from 7. The decision was very unpopular since during the election campaign he had promised not to raise the tax.

 Selinger will continue to be premier during the leadership race and said: “I plan to make my first responsibility governing is for the people of Manitoba. There is a leadership contest going on. That will be the second priority in the sense that your first duty is to serve the people of Manitoba.” 

Theresa Oswald, formerly Minister for Jobs and the Economy, was first to enter the leadership fray on December 19th followed by former Transportation Minister Steve Ashton. Ashton has promised to promote local food and social enterprises in a speech made at Local Meats and Frozen Treats, a company selling made-in-Manitoba products. Ashton also called for a referendum on the increase in the sales tax, an obvious challenge to Selinger.

 Oswald has the endorsement of two Winnipeg city councillors. On the campaign trail Oswald said: "Premier Selinger has served this province with dedication for many years and it's been an honour to work together on important programs for Manitobans, including free cancer drugs for all patients, expanding home care for seniors and introducing the Rent Assist housing benefit for low income families.I look forward to a respectful, constructive and honest debate about who is the right man or woman to renew our party, regain the confidence and trust of Manitobans and ensure the NDP is competitive going into the next election."  

Selinger has the dubious distinction of being Canada's least popular premier with an approval rating of just 17 per cent. Next door in Saskatchewan Brad Wall of the conservative-leaning Saskatchewan Party is the most popular at a 65 per cent rating. Political scientist, Alan Mills, of the University of Winnipeg said that the NDP will lose the next election unless they dump Selinger: "I think with him as the leader, the NDP is a dead duck." 

 While the next election could be more than a year away, the NDP has a large gap to bridge between its support and that for the Conservatives. A recent poll in December puts their support at just 26 percent of decided voters. This is tied with the lowest level for the party ever recorded by Probe Research in December of 2013 just a year ago. The Progressive Conservatives(PC) have improved from 42 percent in September to 48 percent now giving them a comfortable 12 percent lead over the NDP, although the PC vote is much stronger in rural areas than in the city of Winnipeg. The Liberal Party has the support of 19 percent of voters a drop of one percent since September.

Manitoba election: Tories want more people in jail!

This is part of the ongoing emphasis on crime platform that Tories seem to make their specialty. I guess it is OK to have men only jails! At least the drug treatment plan is a step forward.

Tories add new jail to election promises
Last Updated: Thursday, May 3, 2007 | 2:55 PM ET
CBC News

Manitoba's Progressive Conservatives promised Thursday to build a $70 million jail for men if the party is elected to power in the May 22 provincial election.

Party leader Hugh McFadyen said the 300 cells at the medium-security facility would provide relief from crowded facilities in Headingley and Brandon, and at the Remand Centre in Winnipeg.

Criminals are often released too quickly because there is not enough space to hold them, McFadyen said.

In addition, the party expects the jail population would rise under a Conservative government due to other promises to increase law enforcement and prosecutions, track parole breaches more closely, and request federal reforms for stricter sentencing.

Because many offenders are battling addictions, the new jail would specialize in drug-treatment programs, he added.

"It involves the separation of inmates who have addictions from those who don't, and provides for some very specialized opportunities for treatment within a prison setting," McFadyen said.
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"Studies have indicated that this kind of approach can reduce the return to criminal activity by as much as 50 per cent."

McFadyen estimated it would cost about $15 million a year to run the new jail.

The Conservatives have not identified a preferred site, but said the proposed facility would probably be located outside Winnipeg.

Manitoba Election: Tories would ban sale of Hydro!

So here is the same guy who boasted about being involved in the privatisation of MTS (Manitoba Telephone System) saying he would ban the privatisation of Manitoba Hydro. Well if that is what it takes to get elected I guess it is a small price to pay. He could always sell off Manitoba Autopac a government auto insurance monopoly. Last time around the Conservatives thought it was a bit too risky I guess.


Tories would ban sale of Hydro


Updated at 6:26 PM

By Mary Agnes Welch



MARC GALLANT / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
Tory leader Hugh McFadyen,and Riel candidate Trudy Turner salute clean water outside Manitoba Hydro's head office on Taylor Avenue.


A Progressive Conservative government won’t sell off Manitoba Hydro and would introduce legislation to prove it, Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen vowed Wednesday.
Whatever, responded NDP Leader Gary Doer.

In what could be the defining squabble of the election, the two rivals squared off Wednesday over whether voters ought to trust the Tories with Hydro.

McFadyen, standing in front of the Hydro headquarters on Taylor Avenue, said he would introduce legislation requiring unanimous support from all 57 MLAs to alter ownership of Manitoba Hydro. That would give veto power to every MLA. Taking it one step further, McFadyen said that rule could only be changed with the consent of all MLAs.

"We want to be very clear about our commitment to public ownership," said McFadyen. "We know the NDP are going around the province trying to scare Manitobans, and before those phoney ads start running, we wanted to be very clear."

Legislation already requires a referendum to sell off Hydro, making McFadyen’s move largely symbolic, especially since any government in power can alter legislation. But the PC leader’s move could neuter the NDP’s criticism, one that Doer repeats relentlessly.

Wednesday, Doer said McFadyen’s past actions speak louder than his current words.

He said McFadyen was a chief adviser to the former Tory government during the sale of MTS — something McFadyen boasted about in his biography on the website during his Tory leadership campaign last year. And Doer said McFadyen also was an adviser to the Ontario Tory government when that province deregulated hydroelectricity.

"We know the public doesn’t trust the Tories with Hydro,’’ said Doer.

"They're smart. I think today he went out there to deny it, but we don't trust him either."

--With files from Mia Rabson

maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca

Manitoba Election May 22

I have not been following Manitoba politics for some time. I used to be actively involved in the NDP during the Schreyer regime and later but the party is now so far to the right that I can't be bothered. All the parties are just slightly different shades and defenders of capitalism; although I guess there is green capital, blue capital, and perhaps the NDP is pink capital! Green capital doesn't even have a seat yet.
As the article mentions what should have been a very progressive investment fund turned into a disaster. Even I thought of investing in it except it turned out I didn't have any surplus funds to invest!
Doer has been very careful and moderate for the most part. The Conservatives have a new leader and the Liberals are far back in the polls. It is quite possible that Doer will be able to muster enough votes to stay in power but it could be thatj there are enough people tired of the NDP that they will opt for the Conservatives once again. The NDP came reasonably close last election in my constitutency but this time I am not sure they will have as good a candidate. The Conservatives capture most rural seats except in the north and sometimes in the interlake area. Most NDP seats are in poorer and ethnic areas of Winnipeg and two are held in Brandon. It may be difficult for the NDP to hold the west end seat.

Gary Doer calls May 22 election in Manitoba
Last Updated: Saturday, April 21, 2007 | 8:21 PM CT
CBC News
Manitoba NDP Leader Gary Doer has formally dissolved his majority government and called an election for May 22, the Tuesday after the Victoria Day long weekend.

"We have shown that Manitoba has changed," Doer told cheering supporters at the Winnipeg Convention Centre. "We have changed because we have become a can-do province, and we will continue to be a can-do province."

Manitoba Premier Gary Doer attends a funding announcement by Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Winnipeg on Friday afternoon before announcing in the evening that Manitobans will go to the polls May 22.
(John Woods/Canadian Press) Doer, who has led the province since 1999, is seeking his third term as premier. The NDP holds 35 of 57 seats in the legislature, while the Conservatives have 18 seats and the Liberals have two.

Denis Rocan, a Conservative MLA until he was kicked out of the caucus this week, is now sitting as an Independent. There is also vacant seat, Kirkfield Park, which had been held by the Conservatives until Stuart Murray, the party's former leader, resigned.

While making the election call, Doer touted major developments his government has brought to the province, from colleges to downtown office buildings.

"The endangered species of the building crane has been returned to Manitoba with some of our development," he said.

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Doer's party won the 2003 election with almost half of the popular vote, the largest percentage since 1915. At the time, Doer campaigned hard on a health-care platform, and it is expected health will be a critical issue again in this election.

Critical about health care
The opposition parties have criticized the NDP for failing to provide enough beds in Manitoba hospitals. The NDP has argued throughout both of its mandates that the previous Conservative government was to blame for making cuts to health care that the party says created the problems in the first place.

Another hot issue in the election could be the government's role in the Crocus Investment Fund, which collapsed in 2005, resulting in a loss totalling millions of dollars for the 34,000 Manitobans who put money into the fund.

The election is expected to be a tight race between the Conservatives and the NDP, especially for crucial seats in the southern area of Winnipeg, such as Riel, St. Norbert and Seine River.

Those seats have been held by the Tories in the past, and party officials say they're much better organized this time around than they were three years ago.

Poll suggests close race
A Probe Research poll conducted in early March indicated the NDP and Conservatives are in a dead-heat race, although other recent polls suggest Doer is one of the most popular premiers in the country.

Winning a third term in Manitoba has proven elusive for other Manitoba premiers. Conservative Premier Gary Filmon and the NDP's Ed Schreyer both lost power after two terms.

This will be Hugh McFadyen's first election as leader of the Conservatives. The rookie MLA was first elected in December 2005, and took over the party leadership from Murray in April 2006.

"The economy has been growing across North America, and Manitoba has not been keeping up," said McFadyen, who argues that private-sector investment has lagged behind other provinces.

At the helm of the Liberal party is Jon Gerrard, the only Liberal in the legislature from 1999 to 2003, before he was joined by Liberal Kevin Lamoureux of Inkster.

Gerrard launched his campaign Friday evening in front of a hospital that has struggled to address a physician shortage.

"(The NDP) has not been able to fix the problems that existed under the Tories," Gerrard said.

Andrew Basham leads the Green party, which has never elected an MLA.

Both the Tories and the NDP say they expect to spend about $1 million on the campaign. The Liberals expect to spend a record amount of money for the provincial party: $400,000.

With files from the Canadian Press