Sunday, April 10, 2016

Conservatives still far ahead in polls as Manitoba election approaches

A new poll by Insight Manitoba polling finds that the Liberal Party has dropped from having 19 percent approval to just 13 percent in the capital and main city of Manitoba, Winnipeg.

The vote for the incumbent New Democratic Party (NDP) and Progressive Conservative(PC) has gone up. The NDP went from 21 percent to 24 percent and the PCs, led by Brian Pallister, rose to 38 percent from 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to just 17 percent. This is still quite a significant number with less than two weeks before the election on April 19. The poll results came as a surprise to the three main figures behind Insight Manitoba who are all Liberals.
Province-wide figures show the PCs at 42 percent, NDP at 22 percent and Liberals at 15 percent. The Greens are at 5 percent with 16 percent still undecided. A political analyst at the University of Manitoba, Royce Koop said that the dropping Liberal support would help the NDP most. In Winnipeg in particular, the NDP could loose seats if Liberals gain votes from the NDP. The Conservatives could take more seats.
As a recent article points out the Liberal party not only has a relatively unknown leader Rana Bokhari but has made numerous gaffes during the campaign. A candidate in Brandon west, Billy Moore, suggested that hospitals should be shut down as a means of cutting waiting lists. He later said it was a publicity stunt. The Liberals accidentally emailed almost every journalist in the province urging them not to say negative things about party leader Bokhari. It did not stop negative remarks about the party as this article shows: And the Liberals? They just seem lost. They've lost six candidates in the past week, lost an entire year in their fiscal plan, and lost their minds when they suggested spending $20 million to build a year-round fresh food market in a refurbished heritage building in downtown Winnipeg. If that idea sounds familiar, it’s because it already exists. It’s called The Forks.
Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives also has had his share of gaffes but they are quite old. Opponents no doubt collect these to use them during campaigns. I have included two memorable occasions when Pallister probably should have had his remarks vetted before being released on video. Pallister should not worry though as it looks as if he is headed for a majority government.
The most recent poll tracker results updated as of March 31 see the PCs as far ahead. In popular vote, the PC's had 44.8 per cent, the NDP 23.4 and the Liberals 23.9 with the Greens at 7.7 The Insight Poll shows a huge drop in the Liberal vote. Seat projections show the PC's with 40, the NDP with 11 and the Liberals six. However, with the decline in the Liberal vote in Winnipeg the NDP could come out with quite a few more seats.

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