Conservatives still far ahead in polls as Manitoba election approaches

A new poll by Insight Manitoba polling finds that the Liberal Party has dropped from having 19 percent approval to just 13 percent in the capital and main city of Manitoba, Winnipeg.

 

The vote for the incumbent New Democratic Party (NDP) and Progressive Conservative(PC) has gone up. The NDP went from 21 percent to 24 percent and the PCs, led by Brian Pallister, rose to 38 percent from 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to just 17 percent. This is still quite a significant number with less than two weeks before the election on April 19. The poll results came as a surprise to the three main figures behind Insight Manitoba who are all Liberals.

Province-wide figures show the PCs at 42 percent, NDP at 22 percent and Liberals at 15 percent. The Greens are at 5 percent with 16 percent still undecided. A political analyst at the University of Manitoba, Royce Koop said that the dropping Liberal support would help the NDP most. In Winnipeg in particular, the NDP could loose seats if Liberals gain votes from the NDP. The Conservatives could take more seats.

As a recent article points out the Liberal party not only has a relatively unknown leader Rana Bokhari but has made numerous gaffes during the campaign. A candidate in Brandon west, Billy Moore, suggested that hospitals should be shut down as a means of cutting waiting lists. He later said it was a publicity stunt. The Liberals accidentally emailed almost every journalist in the province urging them not to say negative things about party leader Bokhari. It did not stop negative remarks about the party as this article shows: And the Liberals? They just seem lost. They've lost six candidates in the past week, lost an entire year in their fiscal plan, and lost their minds when they suggested spending $20 million to build a year-round fresh food market in a refurbished heritage building in downtown Winnipeg. If that idea sounds familiar, it’s because it already exists. It’s called The Forks.

Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives also has had his share of gaffes but they are quite old. Opponents no doubt collect these to use them during campaigns. I have included two memorable occasions when Pallister probably should have had his remarks vetted before being released on video. Pallister should not worry though as it looks as if he is headed for a majority government.

The most recent poll tracker results updated as of March 31 see the PCs as far ahead. In popular vote, the PC's had 44.8 per cent, the NDP 23.4 and the Liberals 23.9 with the Greens at 7.7 The Insight Poll shows a huge drop in the Liberal vote. Seat projections show the PC's with 40, the NDP with 11 and the Liberals six. However, with the decline in the Liberal vote in Winnipeg the NDP could come out with quite a few more seats.

Polls indicate Progressive Conservatives should win Manitoba provincial election

Polls indicate that the Progressive Conservatives(PC) are far ahead of the reigning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Liberals with the Manitoba provincial election a little more than a month away on April 19.

At dissolution the NDP held 35 seats, the Progressive Conservatives 19 and the Liberals just one. Two seats are vacant. The NDP went through a crisis last year when five cabinet ministers revolted and challenged the leadership of Greg Sellinger and resigned from his cabinet.. Sellinger won in a subsequent leadership review. While dissension appears to have lessened, a total of nine sitting NDP members are not running in this election,. Perhaps they see the writing on the wall.

Two recent polls show the uphill battle facing the NDP. A Forum Research Poll on March 13th showed: NDP, 22 percent of the vote; PC, 46 percent, and Liberals 23 percent The Green Party had 8 percent.. A Mainstreet Technologies poll on March12th showed: NDP, 27 percent; PC, 43 percent, with Liberals at 24 percent. The Greens had 7 percent. Both polls show the NDP is far behind the PC's. A January poll showed the PC's even higher at 52 percent. A CBC article on January 27 noted:The PCs led in Winnipeg with 46 per cent support, an increase of nine points. The NDP was down to 23 per cent, while the Liberals slipped six points to 21 per cent.The situation may have changed by now. The PCs dominate outside of Winnipeg, Brandon, and the north. The PCs win by large margins in most rural areas. The Liberals could win many more seats in Winnipeg this election. If NDP voters decide the Liberals are the best party to stop a PC victory, the NDP could lose many Winnipeg seats. However, a split between NDP and the Liberals in Winnipeg could end up with the PCs winning many more seats.

Among NDP members who have thrown in the towel is Jennifer Howard. As the CBC reports:The MLA for Fort Rouge said her priorities have changed since she had children, and she is choosing to spend more time with her family. Howard said she has taken a job in Ottawa that she declined to discuss and will be moving there with her wife, Tara Peel, and their two children, four-year-old Harry and eight-month-old Georgia.Howard was one of the five cabinet ministers who wanted Sellinger to resign. Howard was a student of mine at Brandon University, an A student. The NDP is losing her along with a number of other competent MLA's who are not running.

In the case of Howard, the NDP has been fortunate to attract a well-qualified candidate to run instead of Howard.in the Fort Rouge riding, Wab Kinew. Howard said of Kinew: "Whenever you contemplate leaving something, one of your big worries is who is going to be there, in whose hands do you leave all of the work, I know those things are going to be in good hands." Kinew is from the Onigaming First Nation in northwestern Ontario but is also associate vice-president of indigenous affairs at the University of Winnipeg. He is also a former broadcaster at the CBC. Kinew will be running against the new Liberal leader Rana Bokhari and PC candidate Audrey Gordon. Karine Levasseur, associate professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba said that the popularity of Kinew could help the NDP and challenge Liberal Leader Bokhari.

UPDATE: Here is some poll tracker data. The seat projections are dismal for the NDP with the PC's winning a huge majority.