Brennan does not explain his reasons for predicting that there would be a minority govt. if an election were called in the fall on the basis of a close poll just at the beginning of summer. Perhaps it is inexplicable!
Even if the polls do not move sufficiently for a majority government to be elected they could easily move in the Liberal direction sufficiently to have a minority Liberal govt. You would think that many at the Star would like that. But maybe that would be too close to that horrible coalition govt. that Ignatieff in a moment of weakness signed on to, or perhaps the Star thinks is much better to go forward with a de facto coalition between the Liberals and Conservatives as we have now. After all Ignatieff is quite flexible almost one of those contortionists.
Minority government looms again if election called this fall, new poll shows
Canada - Minority government looms again if election called this fall, new poll shows
June 25, 2009 Richard J. BrennanOTTAWA BUREAU
OTTAWA–As talk of a fall federal election heats up, the Conservatives and Liberals are essentially in a dead heat at 32 to 31 per cent, pointing to yet another minority government a new poll suggests.
And despite the political duelling between Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, the Conservative Prime Minister is most likely of the two to be perceived as honest, trustworthy, strong and decisive and able to manage the economy, the Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll found.
The poll shows both major parties have a lot of work to do if they are entertaining thoughts of taking Canadians to the polls within months.
At 32 per cent in national voting intentions, the Conservatives are up 1 point from the last national poll in May, with the Liberals nipping at the governing party's heel with 31 per cent, down 2 points from May.
The New Democrats are in third place with 18 per cent support (up 1 percentage point) followed by the Bloc Québécois at 11 per cent (up 2 percentage points) and the Green party holding steady at 7 per cent.
The survey found 34 per cent agree Harper is best suited to handle the economy, compared with 20 per cent for Ignatieff, yet 40 per cent say the Conservative government has done a "poor job" and that Canada needs a new government.
In Ontario, the Conservatives, with 37 per cent are barely ahead of the Liberals with 35 per cent.
In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 42 per cent, while the Liberals trail with 29 per cent.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives hold only a three-point edge over the Liberals, 36 to 33 per cent.
The poll of 1,005 Canadians was conducted from conducted June 17-18, and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent percentage points, 19 times out of 20.