Charest on track to win third straight mandate.

The article does not say whether Charest will achieve a majority but the polls suggest perhaps he will. However, like the stock market there is a lot of volatility in the environment these days! Harper will probably strike out in Quebec after his recent remarks if an election is called early next year. However, the Liberals are likely to cave and abandon the Coalition I imagine. This is from the Globe and Mail.


Charest on track to win third straight mandate
Liberals will prevail despite turmoil in Ottawa, poll says
RHÉAL SÉGUIN
From Friday's Globe and Mail
December 5, 2008 at 6:00 AM EST
QUEBEC CITY — Jean Charest looks set to become the first Quebec Premier to win three consecutive mandates since Maurice Duplessis a half century ago.
The latest public opinion poll, taken over the past week as the crisis in Ottawa unfolded, suggests Quebeckers are seeking stability and clear government leadership as the economy worsens.
Monday's vote will be a test of the consequences of the extraordinary drama that played out in Ottawa. A firestorm of rhetoric, brought on by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's framing of the proposed NDP-Liberal coalition as nothing more than a backdoor entry to power for the separatist Bloc Québécois, has dominated headlines, knocking the provincial election lower in newscasts.
But, for now, with 72 hours to go, the polling for La Presse suggests Mr. Charest will win at the cost of the Parti Québécois.

The poll surveyed 1,001 Quebeckers between Nov. 28 and Dec. 3 and showed the Liberals leading with 45-per-cent support, comfortably ahead of the Parti Québécois at 29 per cent and the Action démocratique du Québec, trailing at 15 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Green Party was backed by 6 per cent of those surveyed and the left-wing, pro-sovereignty Québec Solidaire by 5 per cent. A poll this size is considered accurate within 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The Liberals and the PQ were neck and neck among crucial francophone voters, which determine the fate of at least 80 of the province's 125 ridings, with Mr. Charest attracting 35 per cent of francophone support, slightly less than 36 per cent for the PQ.
However, the Liberal government's approval rating continued to drop, falling from 51 per cent to 48 per cent.
That hasn't stopped voters from considering Mr. Charest as the best leader for the province, picked by 43 per cent of those polled against 24 per cent for PQ Leader Pauline Marois and only 13 per cent for ADQ Leader Mario Dumont.
Support for Mr. Dumont has barely moved throughout the campaign. The party could be devastated after winning official opposition status in the 2007 election, unless Mr. Dumont is able to mount a last-minute surge. But with 70 per cent saying their choice was decided, Mr. Dumont's challenge appeared insurmountable, especially when the majority of those surveyed, 54 per cent, expressed little interest in the campaign.
Despite holding a comfortable lead, Liberals still remain concerned over the impact Mr. Harper's relentless attacks might have on nationalist voters.
Mr. Charest called for cooler heads to prevail by siding with the 1.3 million Quebeckers who voted for the Bloc Québécois in the past federal election. Mr. Harper's bare-knuckle political gamesmanship was seen as threatening to undermine Mr. Charest's appeal to nationalist voters.
"All Quebeckers deserve respect. In our democracy, we must respect the choices made by voters. ... If they chose to elect Bloc Québécois members, that choice must be respected," Mr. Charest said yesterday.
Mr. Harper continued to insist that no Canadian government should co-operate with a party seeking the breakup of the country. Those remarks prompted Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe to accuse Mr. Harper of reducing his elected members to second-class MPs in Parliament.
"Mr. Harper clearly stated that the elected officials in Quebec don't have the same value as the ones in the rest of Canada," Mr. Duceppe said yesterday.