This is from CTV. With the decline in the Quebec polls the threats from Dion are empty. Even though the Liberals are completely opposed to the new immigration legislation they cannot afford to oppose it. The tired old slogans about making parliament work and Canadians not wanting an election are already being trotted out by some Liberals.
Parliament to resume with more Liberal threats
Updated Sun. Mar. 30 2008 5:13 PM ET
The Canadian Press
OTTAWA -- The election guessing game resumes Monday with Stephane Dion continuing to hold out the possibility that he'll finally pull the plug on Stephen Harper's minority government.
The Liberal leader's threat rings increasingly hollow, coming in the wake of disappointing byelection results and a new round of internecine sniping among party militants in Dion's home province of Quebec.
Indeed, some top Liberals have urged Dion to cut the incessant sabre rattling and frankly admit the party is in no position to fight an election this spring. They fear that repeatedly threatening an election and backing down -- a pattern that Dion has followed throughout the fall and winter -- is only making him look indecisive and exposing the party to ridicule.
But Dion is determined to keep his options open as Parliament resumes after a two-week Easter break.
"It's unavoidable that it will be an issue, will we have an election or not ... It's part of life when you're in a minority situation,'' the Liberal leader said in an interview.
Dion said Liberals will take the plunge when he concludes the time is ripe "for us to replace this very bad government.''
"We'll choose our time, and we need to be ready at any time.''
He shrugged off suggestions that he's courting ridicule.
"I don't worry. I don't see anything ridiculous in what I have said. It's completely normal for a party to take into account timing issues. In politics, timing is a lot.''
Some top Liberals believe Dion's threat of a possible spring election is aimed primarily at imposing some discipline on unruly party members. Others privately suggest he may actually have to follow through on it to avoid an open rebellion over the summer.
He'll have plenty of opportunities to bring down the Harper government should he choose to do so.
Eight opposition days are scheduled before Parliament breaks for the summer, any one of which could be used to propose a motion of non-confidence in the government. Indeed, the spring sitting opens with three consecutive opposition days -- Liberal, Bloc Quebecois and NDP.
While neither the Liberals nor the Bloc intend to propose confidence motions this week, the NDP is weighing the pros and cons of proposing one on Wednesday.
Embarrassing the Grits
New Democrats are tempted to immediately embarrass the three new Liberal stars -- Bob Rae, Martha Hall Findlay and Joyce Murray -- who'll be sworn in on Monday. The trio won byelections on March 17 promising to stand up to the Tory government and would doubtless find it awkward to be forced to abstain on their first test.
"As you know, we've brought those kinds of motions before and certainly we don't rule them out. We'll assess each opportunity,'' NDP Leader Jack Layton said in an interview.
Aside from opposition days, the government will face a series of confidence votes throughout the spring on its budget implementation bill and spending estimates.
Liberal insiders say the budget bill -- which contains controversial provisions giving the government the power to pick and choose immigrants -- is the most likely to provoke an election. New Canadians are the bedrock of Liberal support, and Dion will be hard pressed to allow the changes to pass unchallenged.
However, he likely has a couple of months to decide since the bill must still be debated and sent to committee before returning to the Commons for a final vote.
On budget matters, both the NDP and Bloc have made it clear they'll vote against the government.
Layton said the fact that his party didn't fare well in the byelections -- ending up virtually tied with the upstart Green party in three of four ridings -- hasn't altered his determination to defeat the government.
"Look, all we're doing is saying we're voting against what we don't believe is right. That's what we're going to do. If it's a confidence motion . . . and the House falls, then voters will tell us whether they agreed that we should've stood up to the Conservatives or not.''
For his part, Conservative House leader Peter Van Loan evinced little concern that the government could fall over the next three months. He seemed more interested in the potential for leadership jockeying on the Liberal benches as Rae, onetime NDP premier of Ontario, grabs some of the spotlight from deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, his erstwhile college room mate and leadership rival.
"There will be a different tone now that you'll have at least two folks on the other side who are waiting to become leader of the Liberal party,'' Van Loan said.
Dion countered that Rae and the other two new MPs will showcase one of the big differences between himself and Harper.
"I have a much better team than him and I am much more collegial than him, much more as leader able to work with the others without (feeling) threatened by them. The real strength of a leader is not to have a one-man show.''
Rae's arrival may end up highlighting another difference between the two parties: their prescriptions for curing Ontario's slumping economy.
Liberals intend to go on the war path against Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and his recent charge that Ontario's high corporate taxes make it "the last place'' to invest. But Van Loan signalled that the Tories intend to counter any criticism by reminding voters of Rae's high-deficit, high-tax tenure as premier during a severe recession in the early 1990s.
"We remember his record on the economy very well, and if Liberals want to embrace those kinds of policies, which it seems they want to do, then that'll only reinforce the idea that the best economic managers in the country are the people who are in government right now in the Conservative party.''
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Showing posts with label Spring Federal Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spring Federal Election. Show all posts
Monday, March 31, 2008
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Dion: Liberals to assess best odds..
Well at least Dion has dispensed with his usual rhetoric about Canadians not wanting an election etc.etc. anything but the real reason. However, it is unlikely he will dispense the sitting on hands ritual or dispense with the practice of letting bills pass that the Liberals abhor and vigorously and vacuously lambaste in parliament.
April is the cruellest month breeding limp Liberals out of the dead land. Pace T.S. Eliot.
Liberals to assess best odds, Dion says
DANIEL LEBLANC
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
March 29, 2008 at 8:16 AM EDT
OTTAWA — The Liberals will judge coming confidence votes in Parliament on their own self-interest and their shot at victory in the ensuing election, leader Stéphane Dion said yesterday.
"We will determine the timing of the election when we will have the best odds of winning," he said in an interview that will run on the French-language TVA network tomorrow.
"It's rare that the population wants an election, but we can feel it when the fruit is ripe. And at that time - it's not up to me to tell you when; it's part of the strategy that we keep close to our chest - there will be an election."
Mr. Dion's acknowledgment that he is waiting for winning conditions before going to the polls came after a tough week in Quebec, where his leadership was challenged by activists who said the party is ill-prepared for a vote.
Election timing is a crucial issue for the Liberals as the House reconvenes on Monday after a two-week Easter break, with several confidence votes to come as the budget moves through the minority Parliament.
The budget bill includes controversial changes to immigration rules, which the Liberals oppose. In addition, there are always confidence votes in the spring as MPs are required to approve routine government spending.
But the Liberals have refused to vote in large numbers on confidence motions for months.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton have openly derided Mr. Dion's stand, which is getting mixed reviews in the Liberal caucus.
Liberal MP Denis Coderre openly complained this month about the situation, saying his "hands are starting to hurt and I'm tired of sitting on them."
Mr. Dion has invoked a number of other reasons to justify his past refusals to bring down the Harper government, including the high expense of a general election.
April is the cruellest month breeding limp Liberals out of the dead land. Pace T.S. Eliot.
Liberals to assess best odds, Dion says
DANIEL LEBLANC
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
March 29, 2008 at 8:16 AM EDT
OTTAWA — The Liberals will judge coming confidence votes in Parliament on their own self-interest and their shot at victory in the ensuing election, leader Stéphane Dion said yesterday.
"We will determine the timing of the election when we will have the best odds of winning," he said in an interview that will run on the French-language TVA network tomorrow.
"It's rare that the population wants an election, but we can feel it when the fruit is ripe. And at that time - it's not up to me to tell you when; it's part of the strategy that we keep close to our chest - there will be an election."
Mr. Dion's acknowledgment that he is waiting for winning conditions before going to the polls came after a tough week in Quebec, where his leadership was challenged by activists who said the party is ill-prepared for a vote.
Election timing is a crucial issue for the Liberals as the House reconvenes on Monday after a two-week Easter break, with several confidence votes to come as the budget moves through the minority Parliament.
The budget bill includes controversial changes to immigration rules, which the Liberals oppose. In addition, there are always confidence votes in the spring as MPs are required to approve routine government spending.
But the Liberals have refused to vote in large numbers on confidence motions for months.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton have openly derided Mr. Dion's stand, which is getting mixed reviews in the Liberal caucus.
Liberal MP Denis Coderre openly complained this month about the situation, saying his "hands are starting to hurt and I'm tired of sitting on them."
Mr. Dion has invoked a number of other reasons to justify his past refusals to bring down the Harper government, including the high expense of a general election.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Cadman affair dramatically changes election timing scenarios
This is from the Harper Index. I am sceptical. It is also possible that nothing can be proved against Harper or his minions who visited Cadman. It seems the big winners in this situation are the media who can occupy lots of air time asking pundits what is likely to happen.
The last part of the article certainly seems correct. As Wiseman points out the Liberals have "compromised"--I would say 'caved'--on Afghanistan and this together with their refusing to defeat the budget will allow for by-elections to go ahead. The Liberals expect to win most of those. If the Cadmon affair gets worse for the Conservatives and the Liberals gain momentum then they may try to force an election.
However, they will require poll confirmation first. If the Liberals are well ahead this will mean that Canadians must want an election!
Cadman affair dramatically changes election timing scenarios
March 17 by-elections likely to go ahead, and Liberals could bring down government this spring if Conservatives sink in polls.
OTTAWA, March 3, 2008: Stephen Harper's hopes to call or force an election have been set back by allegations that the Conservatives attempted to bribe the late MP Chuck Cadman for a crucial confidence vote when Paul Martin was prime minister.
Harper is now caught in a he-says-she-says situation. 'He', in this case, actually involves two top Conservative Party operatives, Tom Flanagan and Doug Finley, both known for their aggressive tactics. 'She' also involves two people: Cadman's widow - a Conservative candidate herself - and his daughter, neither of whom has anything obvious to gain from the charges.
There is also the battle of competing audio tapes: Cadman saying publicly that there had been no financial offers made to him by the Conservatives, and Harper admitting privately that there had been.
If the allegation is proven "it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."
"The Cadman affair dramatically changes the electoral equation," York University political scientist James Laxer told HarperIndex.ca by email. "If it turns out that Stephen Harper actually gave party officials the green light to try to financially induce a dying Member of Parliament to vote to bring down the Martin government in 2005, the Prime Minister's career could be finished. This is one of the most serious allegations to face a Canadian government in decades, and the allegation directly implicates the Prime Minister. If proven, it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."
These developments mark a dramatic reversal for Harper, who had threatened to go to the polls this winter over three different issues - Afghanistan, the budget, and crime legislation. Prior to the Cadman story emerging, the Conservatives probably hoped to be able to call an election before March 17. That's the date of four by-elections. The Liberals are expected to win at least three, including the riding where defeated Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae is running.
University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca the Liberals compromised on those issues in order to get to the by-elections. "One of the things the Liberals have decided is they want the publicity boost from winning in three or four ridings," said Wiseman.
Liberals caught in their own by-election strategy?
"Dion will not pull the plug now," says Laxer. "Indeed, how can he? He's already bought into the Conservative agenda on the two key issues, Afghanistan and the budget. His quibbles aside, the Liberals have signed on to extending Canada's military mission in Kandahar until 2011. And Liberal support for the budget, symbolically stamps the party's seal of approval on a set of economic policies whose hallmark is reduced taxes for the wealthy and the corporations, as well as full steam ahead for oil sands development at the expense of the nation's hard hit manufacturing sector."
Another observer told HarperIndex.ca that Rae, the Liberals' foreign affairs critic and co-chair of Liberals platform development, pushed for the compromises for the sake of the by-election election strategy, and to get himself into the House.
With the change in fortunes, an election will be most likely to occur soon if the opposition forces it. Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca, "I still think there's a chance we will have an election this spring. On an Opposition Day, if the Conservatives were to drop in the polls, one of the opposition parties could introduce an explicit non-confidence motion that was very soft that all parties could support."
Laxer says it is highly unlikely that Harper would dissolve Parliament soon. "Having received the support of the Liberals on Afghanistan and the budget, the government can hardly make a convincing case that opposition obstructionism makes a trip to the polls necessary.
Only a non-confidence vote will force an early election
Under the election act introduced by Stephen Harper, the election date has been fixed at October 19, 2009 unless the government "loses the confidence" of the House. The Cadman Affair makes it more likely that the Liberals - without whose support the NDP and Bloc cannot unseat the government - will finally force such a vote soon.
The downside of an election engineered by the Liberals, says Laxer, is that Stéphane Dion has lost much of his political appeal in the run-up. "When he was chosen leader of the Liberal Party, [he] could make a credible case that progressive Canadians ought to join him (at least, in ridings where the NDP was not competitive) to throw out the Conservatives. Now he hasn't a ghost of a chance of making a credible case to progressives. He's caved on the defining issues and everybody knows it."
Wiseman, who spoke last week with Dion, said, "The Conservatives have co-opted the Liberals." Until Cadman, this had put Stephen Harper in a strong position to campaign on leadership issues, with the Liberals in virtual agreement on key issues.
Now the Harper government could lose control. The by-elections will go ahead, which won't help their cause. Economic problems are looming, and federal surpluses are shrinking, which makes new programs to attract voters unlikely. the Mulroney-Schreiber thing never gets better, and now there's Cadman. To make matters much worse, in November, Americans may elect Barak Obama, and Harper's team has already been accused of meddling to hurt Democratic chances. For all these reasons, it is possible Stephen Harper could create a reason to trigger a non-confidence vote and an election before things get worse.
The last part of the article certainly seems correct. As Wiseman points out the Liberals have "compromised"--I would say 'caved'--on Afghanistan and this together with their refusing to defeat the budget will allow for by-elections to go ahead. The Liberals expect to win most of those. If the Cadmon affair gets worse for the Conservatives and the Liberals gain momentum then they may try to force an election.
However, they will require poll confirmation first. If the Liberals are well ahead this will mean that Canadians must want an election!
Cadman affair dramatically changes election timing scenarios
March 17 by-elections likely to go ahead, and Liberals could bring down government this spring if Conservatives sink in polls.
OTTAWA, March 3, 2008: Stephen Harper's hopes to call or force an election have been set back by allegations that the Conservatives attempted to bribe the late MP Chuck Cadman for a crucial confidence vote when Paul Martin was prime minister.
Harper is now caught in a he-says-she-says situation. 'He', in this case, actually involves two top Conservative Party operatives, Tom Flanagan and Doug Finley, both known for their aggressive tactics. 'She' also involves two people: Cadman's widow - a Conservative candidate herself - and his daughter, neither of whom has anything obvious to gain from the charges.
There is also the battle of competing audio tapes: Cadman saying publicly that there had been no financial offers made to him by the Conservatives, and Harper admitting privately that there had been.
If the allegation is proven "it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."
"The Cadman affair dramatically changes the electoral equation," York University political scientist James Laxer told HarperIndex.ca by email. "If it turns out that Stephen Harper actually gave party officials the green light to try to financially induce a dying Member of Parliament to vote to bring down the Martin government in 2005, the Prime Minister's career could be finished. This is one of the most serious allegations to face a Canadian government in decades, and the allegation directly implicates the Prime Minister. If proven, it will be almost impossible for Harper to remain in office."
These developments mark a dramatic reversal for Harper, who had threatened to go to the polls this winter over three different issues - Afghanistan, the budget, and crime legislation. Prior to the Cadman story emerging, the Conservatives probably hoped to be able to call an election before March 17. That's the date of four by-elections. The Liberals are expected to win at least three, including the riding where defeated Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae is running.
University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca the Liberals compromised on those issues in order to get to the by-elections. "One of the things the Liberals have decided is they want the publicity boost from winning in three or four ridings," said Wiseman.
Liberals caught in their own by-election strategy?
"Dion will not pull the plug now," says Laxer. "Indeed, how can he? He's already bought into the Conservative agenda on the two key issues, Afghanistan and the budget. His quibbles aside, the Liberals have signed on to extending Canada's military mission in Kandahar until 2011. And Liberal support for the budget, symbolically stamps the party's seal of approval on a set of economic policies whose hallmark is reduced taxes for the wealthy and the corporations, as well as full steam ahead for oil sands development at the expense of the nation's hard hit manufacturing sector."
Another observer told HarperIndex.ca that Rae, the Liberals' foreign affairs critic and co-chair of Liberals platform development, pushed for the compromises for the sake of the by-election election strategy, and to get himself into the House.
With the change in fortunes, an election will be most likely to occur soon if the opposition forces it. Wiseman told HarperIndex.ca, "I still think there's a chance we will have an election this spring. On an Opposition Day, if the Conservatives were to drop in the polls, one of the opposition parties could introduce an explicit non-confidence motion that was very soft that all parties could support."
Laxer says it is highly unlikely that Harper would dissolve Parliament soon. "Having received the support of the Liberals on Afghanistan and the budget, the government can hardly make a convincing case that opposition obstructionism makes a trip to the polls necessary.
Only a non-confidence vote will force an early election
Under the election act introduced by Stephen Harper, the election date has been fixed at October 19, 2009 unless the government "loses the confidence" of the House. The Cadman Affair makes it more likely that the Liberals - without whose support the NDP and Bloc cannot unseat the government - will finally force such a vote soon.
The downside of an election engineered by the Liberals, says Laxer, is that Stéphane Dion has lost much of his political appeal in the run-up. "When he was chosen leader of the Liberal Party, [he] could make a credible case that progressive Canadians ought to join him (at least, in ridings where the NDP was not competitive) to throw out the Conservatives. Now he hasn't a ghost of a chance of making a credible case to progressives. He's caved on the defining issues and everybody knows it."
Wiseman, who spoke last week with Dion, said, "The Conservatives have co-opted the Liberals." Until Cadman, this had put Stephen Harper in a strong position to campaign on leadership issues, with the Liberals in virtual agreement on key issues.
Now the Harper government could lose control. The by-elections will go ahead, which won't help their cause. Economic problems are looming, and federal surpluses are shrinking, which makes new programs to attract voters unlikely. the Mulroney-Schreiber thing never gets better, and now there's Cadman. To make matters much worse, in November, Americans may elect Barak Obama, and Harper's team has already been accused of meddling to hurt Democratic chances. For all these reasons, it is possible Stephen Harper could create a reason to trigger a non-confidence vote and an election before things get worse.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Dion backs from election brink..
Maybe Ignatieff gave Dion an ultimatum! Dion begins more and more to look like a ditherer and a leader not in control of his party. One day he seems to be taking a strong stand the next day he begins to hum and haw and make conciliatory noises. I still think in the end the Liberals will not vote against the Afghan motion. They may be able to vote down the budget however before the vote on Afghanistan is called.
Dion backs from election brink
Cindy E. Harnett , Canwest News ServicePublished: Saturday, February 09, 2008
VICTORIA - With momentum for a spring election growing, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion took a softer stance on the Afghanistan mission in Victoria Saturday, saying he wants a compromise with the Harper government but won't back down on a non-combat role for Canada after 2009.
"I would much prefer to find an agreement on the future of the mission, and I will work for that," Dion said in an interview with the Victoria Times Colonist.
"But at the same time we will not accept a future of the mission that we think is not in the interest of Canada and in the interest of the mission."
The Liberal leader was in Victoria Saturday meeting with environmentalists and technology experts at the Vancouver Island Technology Park.
Dion rejects the notion his hard line on pulling combat troops out of Afghanistan in 2009 has forced him into a showdown with the Conservative government. He said he blames the government for forcing what should be a respectful debate into an election issue.
"Our priority is to see this parliament work," he said. "The problem is the government very clearly wants to fall and go into an election. It's very clear."
The Liberals are expected to have a caucus meeting Monday night and within the week will table amendments to the government's parliamentary motion Friday calling for a two-year extension of the Afghanistan mission until the end of 2011.
The government declared the motion a confidence matter, meaning a defeat in Parliament would trigger an election. The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois both oppose any extension of the mission beyond 2009. That leaves the Liberals with the deciding vote in the House of Commons.
Canadians will not accept a "never-ending mission" in the most dangerous province in Afghanistan, Dion said.
The Liberals want Canada to stay in Afghanistan but wants troops working on issues such as redevelopment, reconstruction and the training of Afghan police and the justice system, Dion said.
In what amounted almost to a plea for an exit from the corner the Liberals find themselves in, Dion said he wants to talk.
"(We want to) see if there is a compatibility between what the government wants to do after February 2009, and what we want to do because we want to stay but we want to focus on reconstruction, development . . ." he said.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper brought the motion on the Afghanistan mission to the Liberal leader before tabling it Friday.
Dion said his party has just days to come up with amendments, while the Harper government had weeks to examine the Manley Report - which recommended extending the mission beyond February 2009, the current expiration date, provided Canada can secure more equipment and convince its allies to commit roughly 1,000 more troops to the volatile south.
"(Harper) had weeks to prepare his motion," Dion said. "He showed me the motion and gave me a couple of days to come with my amendments. Do you think that is fair? I am a collegial leader."
The Liberal leader said he's "fed up with this secrecy" and wants open minds and respect around a transparent and non-partisan debate about Afghanistan. "We will see if there is a way through clarification and exploration of the two positions to see if after February 2009 we may agree about what to do."
The Liberal leader would not speculate on whether a rejection of his party's amendments might force the Liberals to vote down the confidence motion, triggering an election.
The Conservative government also faces a confidence vote on its crime legislation next week, then another on the federal budget later this month.
© Canwest News Service 2008
Dion backs from election brink
Cindy E. Harnett , Canwest News ServicePublished: Saturday, February 09, 2008
VICTORIA - With momentum for a spring election growing, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion took a softer stance on the Afghanistan mission in Victoria Saturday, saying he wants a compromise with the Harper government but won't back down on a non-combat role for Canada after 2009.
"I would much prefer to find an agreement on the future of the mission, and I will work for that," Dion said in an interview with the Victoria Times Colonist.
"But at the same time we will not accept a future of the mission that we think is not in the interest of Canada and in the interest of the mission."
The Liberal leader was in Victoria Saturday meeting with environmentalists and technology experts at the Vancouver Island Technology Park.
Dion rejects the notion his hard line on pulling combat troops out of Afghanistan in 2009 has forced him into a showdown with the Conservative government. He said he blames the government for forcing what should be a respectful debate into an election issue.
"Our priority is to see this parliament work," he said. "The problem is the government very clearly wants to fall and go into an election. It's very clear."
The Liberals are expected to have a caucus meeting Monday night and within the week will table amendments to the government's parliamentary motion Friday calling for a two-year extension of the Afghanistan mission until the end of 2011.
The government declared the motion a confidence matter, meaning a defeat in Parliament would trigger an election. The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois both oppose any extension of the mission beyond 2009. That leaves the Liberals with the deciding vote in the House of Commons.
Canadians will not accept a "never-ending mission" in the most dangerous province in Afghanistan, Dion said.
The Liberals want Canada to stay in Afghanistan but wants troops working on issues such as redevelopment, reconstruction and the training of Afghan police and the justice system, Dion said.
In what amounted almost to a plea for an exit from the corner the Liberals find themselves in, Dion said he wants to talk.
"(We want to) see if there is a compatibility between what the government wants to do after February 2009, and what we want to do because we want to stay but we want to focus on reconstruction, development . . ." he said.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper brought the motion on the Afghanistan mission to the Liberal leader before tabling it Friday.
Dion said his party has just days to come up with amendments, while the Harper government had weeks to examine the Manley Report - which recommended extending the mission beyond February 2009, the current expiration date, provided Canada can secure more equipment and convince its allies to commit roughly 1,000 more troops to the volatile south.
"(Harper) had weeks to prepare his motion," Dion said. "He showed me the motion and gave me a couple of days to come with my amendments. Do you think that is fair? I am a collegial leader."
The Liberal leader said he's "fed up with this secrecy" and wants open minds and respect around a transparent and non-partisan debate about Afghanistan. "We will see if there is a way through clarification and exploration of the two positions to see if after February 2009 we may agree about what to do."
The Liberal leader would not speculate on whether a rejection of his party's amendments might force the Liberals to vote down the confidence motion, triggering an election.
The Conservative government also faces a confidence vote on its crime legislation next week, then another on the federal budget later this month.
© Canwest News Service 2008
What's Harper really up to?
This is from the Calgary Herald. This article sums things up quite well. Harper will be quite satisfied if he can push through his legislation and Dion capitulates. Dion will look to be the weak leader that he has been so far and also someone lacking in principle. On the other hand, if he is defeated the Conservatives are well prepared for an election. The worst that is likely to happen is that he will form another minority government.
What's Harper really up to?
An election if necessary, but not necessarily an election
Calgary HeraldPublished: Saturday, February 09, 2008
Is Prime Minister Stephen Harper trying to provoke an election? Or is he, by staking out three confidence issues in the Commons, just trying to get some governing done?
The issues are the budget, due in March, and two government motions introduced this week. One calls on the House of Commons to order the Liberal-dominated Senate to pass its crime bill.
The other, reflecting the main points of the Manley report on Canada's role in Afghanistan, recommends extending the mission to the end of 2011, "but with increasing emphasis on training the Afghan national security forces expeditiously to take increasing responsibility for security in Kandahar and Afghanistan as a whole," all conditional on an increased NATO commitment.
These are all consequential matters, not "juvenile tricks," as Liberal Leader Stephane Dion vainly asserts.
Still, Harper's apparent intentions could be interpreted as engineering his own defeat. Certainly, the possibility is there and those who see him manoeuvring Dion to where he has no choice but to bring the Tory government down, point to the Liberals' attractive vulnerability -- shortage of money, internal division and Dion's own uncertain leadership.
For a well-disciplined, well-funded Conservative party, the temptation to grab a majority while the Liberals are weak, and before the economy wavers -- sitting governments always get the blame -- must be hard to bear. However, that's high-stakes poker.
The public isn't clamouring to vote, and on Groundhog Day the little beast saw the shadow of last year's polls: There was nothing about them then to coax a minority government into electoral adventures, and that hasn't changed. So, there's no guarantee that after a campaign nobody wanted, the relative position of the parties wouldn't be much as it is now. That would be a lot of goodwill spent for nothing. That doesn't sound like a Harper gamble.
Several times in the past six weeks Harper has said he prefers governing until the October 2009 fixed election date he promised shortly after taking office. We are inclined to take him at his word.
After slightly more than two years on the job, and with a little less than 21 months to go, it's rational. Also, he's clearly having fun, at least as the cerebral economist understands it. Above all, it's consistent with what we know of the man.
To become prime minister, he twice sought a party leadership, united Canada's conservatives and fought two general elections. It's illogical to suppose he would refrain from using the levers he has to make things happen, and settle instead for the rewards of non-confrontation: that is, a new record for the minority that served longest, and did least.
It's much easier to see Harper's strong-arming of the opposition as his determination to use his tactical advantages to have his way. That, too, is a high-stakes game that could lead to an election anyway. But the intent behind it is different.
Harper may well ask himself if he's not going to govern, what is he doing there?
It's certainly the question we would ask him..
© The Calgary Herald 2008
What's Harper really up to?
An election if necessary, but not necessarily an election
Calgary HeraldPublished: Saturday, February 09, 2008
Is Prime Minister Stephen Harper trying to provoke an election? Or is he, by staking out three confidence issues in the Commons, just trying to get some governing done?
The issues are the budget, due in March, and two government motions introduced this week. One calls on the House of Commons to order the Liberal-dominated Senate to pass its crime bill.
The other, reflecting the main points of the Manley report on Canada's role in Afghanistan, recommends extending the mission to the end of 2011, "but with increasing emphasis on training the Afghan national security forces expeditiously to take increasing responsibility for security in Kandahar and Afghanistan as a whole," all conditional on an increased NATO commitment.
These are all consequential matters, not "juvenile tricks," as Liberal Leader Stephane Dion vainly asserts.
Still, Harper's apparent intentions could be interpreted as engineering his own defeat. Certainly, the possibility is there and those who see him manoeuvring Dion to where he has no choice but to bring the Tory government down, point to the Liberals' attractive vulnerability -- shortage of money, internal division and Dion's own uncertain leadership.
For a well-disciplined, well-funded Conservative party, the temptation to grab a majority while the Liberals are weak, and before the economy wavers -- sitting governments always get the blame -- must be hard to bear. However, that's high-stakes poker.
The public isn't clamouring to vote, and on Groundhog Day the little beast saw the shadow of last year's polls: There was nothing about them then to coax a minority government into electoral adventures, and that hasn't changed. So, there's no guarantee that after a campaign nobody wanted, the relative position of the parties wouldn't be much as it is now. That would be a lot of goodwill spent for nothing. That doesn't sound like a Harper gamble.
Several times in the past six weeks Harper has said he prefers governing until the October 2009 fixed election date he promised shortly after taking office. We are inclined to take him at his word.
After slightly more than two years on the job, and with a little less than 21 months to go, it's rational. Also, he's clearly having fun, at least as the cerebral economist understands it. Above all, it's consistent with what we know of the man.
To become prime minister, he twice sought a party leadership, united Canada's conservatives and fought two general elections. It's illogical to suppose he would refrain from using the levers he has to make things happen, and settle instead for the rewards of non-confrontation: that is, a new record for the minority that served longest, and did least.
It's much easier to see Harper's strong-arming of the opposition as his determination to use his tactical advantages to have his way. That, too, is a high-stakes game that could lead to an election anyway. But the intent behind it is different.
Harper may well ask himself if he's not going to govern, what is he doing there?
It's certainly the question we would ask him..
© The Calgary Herald 2008
Friday, February 8, 2008
Poll: Liberals 33 per cent, Conservatives 31.
This is hardly enough to enthuse the Liberals about an election. However the Conservatives may fear the decline of the economy and other problems so they seem intent on provoking or embarassing the Liberals. The Liberals may feel that too much caving in will damage the brand but on the other hand they may decide that it would be better to wait and see if the polls get better. So far inaction doesn't seem to hurt them much. It will be interesting to see what the Liberals do. The ball is in their court.
Liberals take slight lead: poll
Fri Feb 8, 2008 9:08am EST
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's opposition Liberals have taken a slight lead over the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll released on Friday, but both parties are well short of the level needed to form a majority government. The Nanos Research...";
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's opposition Liberals have taken a slight lead over the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll released on Friday, but both parties are well short of the level needed to form a majority government.
The Nanos Research survey put the Liberals at 33 percent and the Conservatives at 31 percent.
Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs 40 percent of the vote to stand a chance of winning a majority of the 308 seats in Parliament -- the Conservatives won a minority government in January 2006 with 36 percent of the vote and have 126 seats in Parliament.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he wants to govern until the next scheduled election date of October 2009, but some party strategists want an election earlier to take advantage of a still-strong economy and what they say is the weak leadership of Liberal leader Stephane Dion.
Parliament faces three confidence votes between now and the end of March, and Dion says he is ready to go to the polls.
"Calling an election is fraught with risks for them both," pollster Nik Nanos wrote in a commentary. He said the survey showed that repeated efforts by the Conservatives to portray Dion as ineffectual had had no effect.
"The reality is that the Tories are not fighting Dion ... they are fighting the Liberal brand," he said.
Nanos Research predicted the result of the January 2006 election to within 0.1 percentage points for the top three parties.
The firm's poll of 1,002 Canadians was conducted between February 2 and 4 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by David Ljunggren; editing by Janet Guttsman)
© Reuters2008All rights reserved.
Liberals take slight lead: poll
Fri Feb 8, 2008 9:08am EST
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's opposition Liberals have taken a slight lead over the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll released on Friday, but both parties are well short of the level needed to form a majority government. The Nanos Research...";
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's opposition Liberals have taken a slight lead over the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll released on Friday, but both parties are well short of the level needed to form a majority government.
The Nanos Research survey put the Liberals at 33 percent and the Conservatives at 31 percent.
Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs 40 percent of the vote to stand a chance of winning a majority of the 308 seats in Parliament -- the Conservatives won a minority government in January 2006 with 36 percent of the vote and have 126 seats in Parliament.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he wants to govern until the next scheduled election date of October 2009, but some party strategists want an election earlier to take advantage of a still-strong economy and what they say is the weak leadership of Liberal leader Stephane Dion.
Parliament faces three confidence votes between now and the end of March, and Dion says he is ready to go to the polls.
"Calling an election is fraught with risks for them both," pollster Nik Nanos wrote in a commentary. He said the survey showed that repeated efforts by the Conservatives to portray Dion as ineffectual had had no effect.
"The reality is that the Tories are not fighting Dion ... they are fighting the Liberal brand," he said.
Nanos Research predicted the result of the January 2006 election to within 0.1 percentage points for the top three parties.
The firm's poll of 1,002 Canadians was conducted between February 2 and 4 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by David Ljunggren; editing by Janet Guttsman)
© Reuters2008All rights reserved.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Dion hints at Spring election
Liberals won't keep propping up the Tories that is unless the Tory polls are too high. The garbage about Canadians not wanting an election is a red-herring that has nothing to do with Liberal strategy but with the polls. If the Liberals were over 40 percent in the polls there would be no mention of Canadians not wanting an election. There are two high profile losers in waiting, waiting to knife Dion or tear the leadership mantle from his back if ever the opportunity arises. I am happy that I don't have to choose between Liberals and Tories. If I really did I am fortunate because I have already lost my sense of smell.
Dion hints at spring election; says Liberals won't keep propping up Tories
Published: Saturday, December 1, 2007 | 12:49 PM ET
Canadian Press: Joan Bryden, THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA - A tough-talking Stephane Dion appears to be setting the stage for a spring election, warning that his Liberals won't continue propping up the minority Conservative government for much longer.
Throughout the fall, Liberals have abstained on key confidence votes to avoid toppling the government and plunging the country into an election that the Grits would be hard-pressed to win.
Stephane Dion waves to delegates following his victory speech after winning the Liberal leadership in this Dec. 2, 2006, file photo in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz/File But, in an interview with The Canadian Press marking his first anniversary as Liberal leader Dec. 2, Dion predicted the survival strategy won't be necessary in the new year.
"2008 will be another ball game," he said. "You cannot keep alive forever a government who wants to die."
Dion said the decision to abstain this fall was taken because Canadians didn't want a third federal election in three years. He didn't mention that many of his own MPs, reeling in the wake of humiliating losses in three Quebec byelections last September, didn't want an election either.
However, Dion said Canadians are now paying more attention to federal politics, are becoming increasingly disenchanted with Stephen Harper's Conservative government, and are increasingly eager for an election.
Continue Article
Some Liberal MPs and strategists are touting the idea of trying to bring down the government as early as February, robbing the Tories of the chance to woo voters with a tax-cut laden budget. Dion did not directly endorse the idea, but he didn't rule it out.
"I think each week I feel that (the public mood is) warmer about the idea that maybe we should revisit the kind of choice we have made in (the) 2006 (federal election). And we'll see if it's still the case in February or in March or in April."
Dion seemed remarkably upbeat for a leader whose first tumultuous year has been marked by vicious Tory attack ads depicting him as weak and indecisive, sniping from within Liberal ranks, party staff upheaval, an exodus of veteran MPs and potential candidates, and plunging leadership approval ratings.
He conceded it hasn't been an easy year, that he sometimes worries he's losing the battle to define himself to the "caricature" perpetrated by his critics. Indeed, he acknowledged that being leader of the official Opposition is generally a lousy job.
"I'm told that your best day in the Opposition is not as good as your worst day in the government," he quipped.
But Dion's situation is hardly unique in the annals of Canadian Opposition leaders. He pointed out that few occupants of his magnificent wood-panelled corner office in Parliament's Centre Block have gone on to become prime minister.
"The ones who succeed - and I intend to be one of them - have never had a free lunch, never."
Lester Pearson, he said, was three times less popular than John Diefenbaker, before winning the 1963 election. Jean Chretien trailed behind Kim Campbell shortly before winning in 1993. And Harper himself was deemed the least popular choice for prime minister before winning in 2006.
"If you think it will be easy, you will be discouraged. I knew it would not be easy. But I know that the ones who succeeded, it's because they had the conviction and they were focusing on the final result and it's what I will do, it's what I'm doing."
In some ways, Dion argued, he's better positioned than some of his predecessors. Despite his rocky start, the Liberals remain within shooting distance of the Tories, who continue to fall short of the polling numbers they'd need to win a majority.
After only two years in office, with the economy booming and unemployment near record lows, Dion said the Tories should be above 40 per cent in the polls. They aren't enjoying a honeymoon, he contended, because Canadians simply don't trust them.
"The want to pretend that they are a reasonable, centre-right party. But once in a while they cannot hide their colours."
The Tories' "lack of sincerity" is apparent, Dion maintained, on a range of issues, from their foot-dragging on climate change and their refusal to seek clemency for Canadians on death row abroad, to their denial of reports that Afghan detainees are being tortured.
While exposing the Tories' shortcomings is part of the key to victory, Dion said Liberals must also present voters with a "credible alternative." He said he's been working hard to do that, proposing an alternate climate change plan, a plan for reducing taxes, refurbishing cities and eliminating poverty - all of which he maintained have been well-received.
As the probability of an election increases and Canadians focus more closely on federal politics, Dion predicted: "The hard work we have done in 2007 will pay off."
Privately - and occasionally publicly - many Liberals contend that Dion will be dumped instantly if he loses the next election. It's a scenario the leader refuses to contemplate.
"We'll win," he insisted.
Dion hints at spring election; says Liberals won't keep propping up Tories
Published: Saturday, December 1, 2007 | 12:49 PM ET
Canadian Press: Joan Bryden, THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA - A tough-talking Stephane Dion appears to be setting the stage for a spring election, warning that his Liberals won't continue propping up the minority Conservative government for much longer.
Throughout the fall, Liberals have abstained on key confidence votes to avoid toppling the government and plunging the country into an election that the Grits would be hard-pressed to win.
Stephane Dion waves to delegates following his victory speech after winning the Liberal leadership in this Dec. 2, 2006, file photo in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz/File But, in an interview with The Canadian Press marking his first anniversary as Liberal leader Dec. 2, Dion predicted the survival strategy won't be necessary in the new year.
"2008 will be another ball game," he said. "You cannot keep alive forever a government who wants to die."
Dion said the decision to abstain this fall was taken because Canadians didn't want a third federal election in three years. He didn't mention that many of his own MPs, reeling in the wake of humiliating losses in three Quebec byelections last September, didn't want an election either.
However, Dion said Canadians are now paying more attention to federal politics, are becoming increasingly disenchanted with Stephen Harper's Conservative government, and are increasingly eager for an election.
Continue Article
Some Liberal MPs and strategists are touting the idea of trying to bring down the government as early as February, robbing the Tories of the chance to woo voters with a tax-cut laden budget. Dion did not directly endorse the idea, but he didn't rule it out.
"I think each week I feel that (the public mood is) warmer about the idea that maybe we should revisit the kind of choice we have made in (the) 2006 (federal election). And we'll see if it's still the case in February or in March or in April."
Dion seemed remarkably upbeat for a leader whose first tumultuous year has been marked by vicious Tory attack ads depicting him as weak and indecisive, sniping from within Liberal ranks, party staff upheaval, an exodus of veteran MPs and potential candidates, and plunging leadership approval ratings.
He conceded it hasn't been an easy year, that he sometimes worries he's losing the battle to define himself to the "caricature" perpetrated by his critics. Indeed, he acknowledged that being leader of the official Opposition is generally a lousy job.
"I'm told that your best day in the Opposition is not as good as your worst day in the government," he quipped.
But Dion's situation is hardly unique in the annals of Canadian Opposition leaders. He pointed out that few occupants of his magnificent wood-panelled corner office in Parliament's Centre Block have gone on to become prime minister.
"The ones who succeed - and I intend to be one of them - have never had a free lunch, never."
Lester Pearson, he said, was three times less popular than John Diefenbaker, before winning the 1963 election. Jean Chretien trailed behind Kim Campbell shortly before winning in 1993. And Harper himself was deemed the least popular choice for prime minister before winning in 2006.
"If you think it will be easy, you will be discouraged. I knew it would not be easy. But I know that the ones who succeeded, it's because they had the conviction and they were focusing on the final result and it's what I will do, it's what I'm doing."
In some ways, Dion argued, he's better positioned than some of his predecessors. Despite his rocky start, the Liberals remain within shooting distance of the Tories, who continue to fall short of the polling numbers they'd need to win a majority.
After only two years in office, with the economy booming and unemployment near record lows, Dion said the Tories should be above 40 per cent in the polls. They aren't enjoying a honeymoon, he contended, because Canadians simply don't trust them.
"The want to pretend that they are a reasonable, centre-right party. But once in a while they cannot hide their colours."
The Tories' "lack of sincerity" is apparent, Dion maintained, on a range of issues, from their foot-dragging on climate change and their refusal to seek clemency for Canadians on death row abroad, to their denial of reports that Afghan detainees are being tortured.
While exposing the Tories' shortcomings is part of the key to victory, Dion said Liberals must also present voters with a "credible alternative." He said he's been working hard to do that, proposing an alternate climate change plan, a plan for reducing taxes, refurbishing cities and eliminating poverty - all of which he maintained have been well-received.
As the probability of an election increases and Canadians focus more closely on federal politics, Dion predicted: "The hard work we have done in 2007 will pay off."
Privately - and occasionally publicly - many Liberals contend that Dion will be dumped instantly if he loses the next election. It's a scenario the leader refuses to contemplate.
"We'll win," he insisted.
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