Harper can't lose by goading opposition

Harper's strategy seems bound to produce an election. If it doesn't it will no doubt produce a majority for the Conservatives at the next election. The Liberals will limp aimlessly along if there is no election with backbiting and erosion of support. The Liberals seem suicidal. Now is the time to back Dion not bite his back.
The so-called poison pill on Afghanistan could always be construed as moving towards a development mission and in effect ending military involvement even though the development is militarily backed. What it does is extend a mission much as it is now but with emphasis upon development so that Liberals or whomever would say: Oh it is development not military combat so it is OK. It is standard crapola probably good bait for bottom feeders to follow Martin's fishing analogy.

Not a bad time to go fishing
Harper can't lose by goading opposition

Don Martin
National Post


Thursday, October 04, 2007


Stephen Harper went fishing for a federal election yesterday at his first formal news conference in Ottawa as prime minister.

The baited hook was a parliamentary ultimatum--if opposition members bite on his Throne Speech in two weeks, they have swallowed the entire Conservative agenda.

An extension of the Afghanistan mission, tough-love justice bills, a deep tax cut and a missing climate change bill are subject to de facto approval on Oct. 16. Should his rivals reject the master blueprint or defeat any one of his priorities, this make-my-day prime minister will deem it a lost vote of confidence.

Obvious translation: Capitulation or election. In the case of white-flag-flapping Liberals, that also means political strangulation.

Negotiation with opposition leaders on the content of the Throne Speech will not be seriously contemplated, nor amendments accepted, unless they are inconsequential, he said.

And what to make of those 'non-negotiable' demands from other party leaders? Well, Mr. Harper doesn't think them worthy of serious consideration given their recent dismal byelection performances.

Mr. Harper's bellicose bravado would normally not be required to induce a federal vote. For previous prime ministers, such positive polling or favourable disarray in rival camps would have justified tea with the Governor-General over the dropping of a writ.

But Mr. Harper is handcuffed by his self-designated fixed election date in October, 2009, so he needs three willing partners to lose the confidence of Parliament and theoretically win big in an election.

To that end, he delivered some of his clearest declarations yet that Canadians will not be treated to the spectacle of troops in full retreat from Afghanistan as approved by the House of Commons.

To leave with Canada's security at risk and other obligations incomplete would qualify as prime ministerial irresponsibility, he said. The mission may change, but it will not end on schedule in 2009.

The Prime Minister also warned that tough justice bills, clearly written into his party's platforms, must move along or rate a possible election call. Continued obstruction would be intolerable -- a thinly veiled swipe at a Liberal-dominated Senate that has been stalling the justice bills.

Mr. Harper's green plan will roll out as presented in a Clean Air Act that ceased to exist after the Liberals amended it into unrecognizable form. There will be no new bill to fight greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Accord.

Playing political footsie with Mr. Harper on these contentious fronts is an offer Liberal leader Stephane Dion cannot easily refuse, but cannot afford to accept.

To avoid a fall election now, Mr. Dion must unconditionally surrender to a Conservative agenda he's duty-bound to oppose. If he does so, he will lose every vertebrae of his principled policy backbone.

Just in case Mr. Dion is still tempted to wave the white flag, Mr. Harper will apparently insert a poison pill in the Throne Speech to make it even more difficult to support.

It's only an unconfirmed whisper, but the speech will apparently commit Canada to an extended Kandahar mission for military-backed humanitarian, redevelopment and security training purposes.

If so, the Liberals can only support it in thumb-screwed horror as their oft-sullied dignity is finally, irretrievably lost.

Of course, it's a brilliant strategy for Mr. Harper to unleash parliamentary inflexibility to force an election he pretends to abhor.

"It's time to fish or cut bait," the Prime Minister told reporters, after he somehow found his way to the National Press Theatre to face media he's gleefully ignored for 600 days.

It's amazingly bold for a minority prime minister when there's not a poll on the planet showing he has a decent shot at the majority mandate.

He's clearly fearless of the electorate and feels a momentum surge that has not yet surfaced in public opinion.

It's probably a no-lose strategy.

If the Liberals sign on to his plan, Mr. Harper gets to preside over a trembling timid Opposition as if he's leading a majority government. If his rivals balk, it's sayonara to this Parliament and perhaps a majority government in an election against an underfunded, unprepared opposition.

Under either happy-hooking scenario, Stephen Harper lands the biggest fish of any Conservative party leader in almost 20 years.

© National Post 2007