Alberta Tories sending mixed election signals.

This article points out that an energy expert and advisor to the government thinks that Stelmach's royalty decisions are a sell-out, a different tune than your friendly neighbourhood oil patch PR people paint.
I don't see that Stelmach could lose in an election. He could surely campaign on his royalty scheme as a reasonable compromise that at least gives Albertans a lot more from oil and gas development than before. The arrows from left and right are not likely to do more than generate a few minor flesh wounds.

Tories sending mixed election signals
Stelmach says they're ready; insider disagrees

Jason Fekete
Calgary Herald; with files from the Edmonton Journal


Monday, October 29, 2007


Alberta Tories wrapped up an election preparedness conference Sunday in Calgary with Premier Ed Stelmach insisting the party is ready to go, despite campaign organizers saying they've got a lot of work to do.

Party officials said in a closed-door, election overview session with members that they haven't yet crafted a campaign message -- a critical component they said was missing during the 2004 provincial vote.

It was during that election -- dubbed "Kleinfeld," the campaign about nothing -- that more than 200,000 fewer Tories voted compared with the previous election.

A Tory strategist, who is part of the election-planning process and was in Sunday's meeting, said they currently "don't have a message" developed for the campaign but are getting there.

"It's coming together, but it will take time," said the senior organizer, who asked not to be identified. "I don't know what mechanism the leader could pull to get everything ready (for a fall election)."

The party needs to secure candidates in about 30 of Alberta's 83 ridings, with Tory nomination meetings scheduled until late November.

Over the next few weeks, the Conservatives will select candidates for key ridings of Calgary-Varsity (now held by the Liberals) and Calgary-Buffalo -- a former Liberal seat being vacated by retiring Tory MLA Harvey Cenaiko.

"We're preparing. Always have to be prepared earlier for an election," Stelmach told reporters Sunday.

"Somebody said maybe now is the time in terms of a popular decision on royalties. This isn't about political expediency," he added. "We've got a few more things to announce."

Stelmach has refused to rule out a fall election campaign, but said he would first like to fulfil his commitments on a few issues, including solving the teacher pension liability issue, implementing a new crime-reduction strategy and completing a 20-year capital plan.

The premier also noted he'll be making "a major announcement" tonight in Calgary on the city's homelessness initiative.

Other issues aside, some political analysts have argued that public opinion on the government's new royalty policy is the make-or-break component of whether Albertans head to the polls before Christmas.

The royalty situation has NDP Leader Brian Mason convinced Stelmach will call a vote within a week.

"I think the government is clearly in the track to launch an election," Mason said Sunday. "Stelmach said in his television address they would be rolling out further announcements in the days and weeks ahead. Why do a rollout in October and November if you're planning an election in March?"

He thinks that Stelmach wants to avoid scrutiny on his new royalty framework and on the auditor general's report that found the province was not collecting the billions in royalties that were due to it.

Add the fact that there will likely not be a federal election this fall, and Mason is convinced it will be called to the extent that he is rushing out his MLA newsletter to constituents, which can't be done during an election campaign.

Expert criticism is mounting that the government's new royalty framework won't deliver a fair share of energy development to Albertans, the owners of the resources.

The new strategy is expected to deliver an additional $1.4 billion in energy royalties in 2010 -- 20 per cent more than currently projected -- but it falls nearly half a billion dollars short of what was recommended by a government-appointed expert panel.

Pressed Sunday whether he should seek a mandate from Albertans before implementing a policy that affects the entire province, Stelmach said there's no need.

"The royalty framework affects all of Canada and we're not going to go to Canadians for the vote," the premier said. "The decision has been made. It's over, done with."

But one of the expert panel members told the Herald a few days ago the new plan is "a blatant deceit" to Albertans, and that it's based on politics, not economics.

And world-renowned energy economist Pedro van Meurs, who's worked extensively with the provincial government in recent years, said the new royalty framework is "highly detrimental to Alberta" and won't collect a fair share of oilsands revenues.

"This is in my view a complete giveaway," van Meurs said Sunday in an e-mail message from overseas.

As the government battles growing criticism on the policy, poll data suggests the Tories are facing their lowest levels of public support since Stelmach took office -- but are still comfortably ahead of the Liberals.

Stelmach, however, suggested Sunday he doesn't pay attention to poll numbers.

"If I would have paid attention to polls, I wouldn't be standing before you," he added, referring to repeated surveys that suggested he was a long-shot to win the Tory leadership.

There is, however, some support in Stelmach's caucus to go to an election right now.

Rural Tory MLA Doug Griffiths said he's anxious to go to the polls and expects a critical issue to voters will be the new royalty policy.

"I'm ready to go. When you're ready to start a race and the motor is revving, you want to get started," Griffiths said. "I don't know if it's the best time or the best strategy."

jfekete@theherald.canwest.com

© The Calgary Herald 2007








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