Showing posts with label federal NDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal NDP. Show all posts

Thursday, October 8, 2015

NDP fades far into third place as Tories and Liberals battle for first place

Recent polls show the New Democratic Party is well off the pace of the Liberals and Conservatives about 8 percentage points below them in third place.
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The latest CBC poll tracker averages up to October 6 show the LIberals and Conservatives in a dead heat with the Conservatives at 32.9 per up 0.6 from the last polls and the Liberals at 32.3 per cent down 0.2 per cent. The NDP has faded further at 24.2 percentage points down 0.8 per cent. The Green Party has 4.9 per cent up 0.2 per cent while the Bloc Quebecois a separatist party running only in Quebec had 4.7 per cent. However in Quebec it has 20.4 per cent of the vote.
Within the space of a week, the NDP has lost 2.7 per cent in the polls, while the Liberals have gained 1.7 points. The Conservatives gained 0.5 percentage points. The two most recent polls give conflicting results as to which party is in the lead but leave little doubt that the NDP is dropping further behind. An Abacus poll taken on the October 5 and 6 shows the Conservatives leading at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 32 and the NDP at 24. A Nanos Globe Poll taken from October 4 to 6 shows the Conservatives at 32.1, the Liberals leading at 34.2, and the NDP at 23.
Results seem to be skewed according to the polling method used. Polls that use interactive voice response (IVR) , automated phone calls, tend to favour the Conservatives. Online polls and live-caller telephone surveys show the race quite close between Conservatives and Liberals. Ranges of three recent IVR polls showed a Conservative support range of 33 to 37. The Liberals were at 27 to 29 per cent behind in every poll. The NDP had a range of 24 to 28 per cent. In every poll the Conservatives are winning. In contrast, five recent on line polls put the Conservative range at 29 to 34 per cent but the Liberals 27 to 32, and the NDP at 26 to 29 per cent. The most recent telephone polls show a range for Conservatives of 31 to 33 per cent , Liberals 32 to 36 per cent, and NDP 23 to 27 per cent, favouring the Liberals in all cases in contrast to the IVR polls. The two parties in front can tout their performance simply by cherry-picking the set of polls they reference. It is not clear what causes this variation in results.
The recent seat projections at the Poll Tracker give Conservatives the most seats with an average of 132. The Liberals have an average of 120 and the NDP significantly behind at just 84. The Bloc Quebecois would win one and the Green Party one also.
On a regional basis, the race is close in BC, while the Conservatives lead on the Prairies, though the NDP and Liberals may gain a few seats. Liberals lead in the Atlantic region. The NDP lead in Quebec is shrinking. In Ontario the polls are unclear with some giving the Liberals an edge and others the Conservatives. However in Toronto the Liberals appear to be gaining especially in comparison to the 2011 election. In 2011, the Conservatives and New Democrats won 8 seats each and the Liberals won the 6 remaining seats. This time around the Liberals have between 38 and 40 per cent of the vote, the NDP 27 to 31 and Conservatives 26 to 28. The Liberals are projected to win between 17 to 22 seats, the NDP just 3 to 6, and the Conservatives could win 0 or up to 2. Perhaps within a week or so the polls will show one of the two leading parties clearly in the lead.


Saturday, September 12, 2015

Latest polls conflict but race is close with no one party forging ahead

Two recent polls show Liberals now leading the NDP but the margin is so slim that it is virtually a tie. Another recent poll shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied for the lead with the NDP third. Another recent poll shows the NDP clearly in the lead.
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These polls provide a golden opportunity for each party to choose a poll which favors them enabling them to claim that their campaign is progressing well. The most recent CBC poll tracker averages a number of recent polls up to September 9 but there have been two new polls since then and another is expected today. Two of three recent polls in the poll tracker averages put the Liberals ahead but the averages bring the results to a statistical tie with the NDP.
Averages as of Sept 9 are: Conservatives, 28 percent a gain of a whole percentage point from the last averages; NDP 31.6, a decline of 0.7 percent; the Liberals 31.5 percent, a gain of 0.2 percent. For the first time seat predictions favor the Liberals at 119, versus 113 for the NDP, and 105 for the Conservatives. Obviously the race for seats is also tightening up.
A new Nanos poll with results from Septmber 10 show the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 31 percent with the NDP at 30 percent. Given the margin of error this is no doubt a statistical tie among all three major parties. This poll was not included in the CBC poll-tracker averages. Another poll not included in the average comes from Forum research. This poll headlines the NDP as having a clear lead unlike other recent polls. The NDP garners 36 percent of the vote with the Liberals at 29 percent and Conservatives at 28. The poll was taken September 9 and 10.
Eric Grenier of threehundredeight.com summed up the situation as he saw it on Friday: A trend away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals is definitely taking place in this campaign. But it seems that the narrative of the NDP-Liberal switchers does not particularly hold. Since Week 2, the New Democrats have been steady. The gains the Liberals have made seem to have come from the Conservatives.Grenier updates the averages for CBC poll-tracker. Since I started this article there has been an update that incorporates the two recent polls I mentioned.
Updated poll-tracker results are: Conservatives at 29.7 per cent up 1.7 percent from last polls; Liberals at 29.8 percent, down 1.7 per cent from last polls; and NDP back in the lead at 32 percent with a gain of 0.4 percent. The averages do not support Grenier's remarks about the Liberals gaining votes at the expense of the Conservatives rather than the NDP. The polls show that the Conservatives in the latest polls are gaining votes at the expense of the Liberals showing a reversal in the trend Grenier detected. In seat projections, the NDP are first again at 115; and the Conservatives second with 113, with the Liberals at 109. However, the three are all so close anyone could win. There is no sign yet of anyone pulling out from the pack or even approaching the 170 seats needed for a majority government.


Monday, August 24, 2015

Reasons for Conservative supporters to vote for Mulcair's NDP

Except for dedicated loyalists who will hear no evil, see no evil, nor speak no evil of Stephen Harper most supporters of the Conservative Party must realize that the Harper brand is irredeemably damaged.
The question now for Conservative supporters is: " What is to be done? " A careful examination of the facts points to a rather surprising answer. Conservative supporters should vote for the New Democratic Party under its leader Thomas Mulcair. This may appear shocking and counter-intuitive to many but consider some of the reasons why this makes sense.
Before he became leader of the NDP , Mulcair actually tried to get a job with the Federal Conservatives as an advisor to the Harper government. According to one narrative he did not get the job because he asked for double the money being offered. According to an alternative version, Mulcair could not support Harper's environmental policies so the deal fell through. So why did he seek the job knowing the dismal record of Harper on the environment? Did he hope to reform the Harper government perhaps? According to former senior Conservative staffers the talks about the position were a prelude to having Mulcair run as a Conservative candidate in 2008. If Mulcair was acceptable as an advisor and a Conservative candidate surely he deserves the votes of conservatives now when Harper's star is dimming and may soon go dark.
There is nothing strange about the Conservatives, even the Harper Conservatives, supporting prominent NDP figures. Gary Doer was a long-time NDP premier of Manitoba. He resigned when Stephen Harper offered him the position of Canadian ambassador to the US. No doubt he is busy in Washington promoting the Keystone XL pipeline and other projects and policies pushed by the Harper government.
Mulcair would carry on the adulation of Israel characteristic of Harper. As well as cracking down on critics of Israel within the NDP, Mulcair said:“I am an ardent supporter of Israel in all situations and in all circumstances.” [“…je suis un ardent supporter de toutes les instances et de toutes les circonstances d’IsraĆ«l.”]*
~Thomas Mulcair, quoted in Canadian Jewish News, May 1st, 2008
Even on economic matters where the NDP is regarded as interventionist, spendthrift, and opposed to free market neo-liberal policies, Mulcair has expressed admiration and support for that darling of conservatives globally Margaret Thatcher. Waxing eloquent, Mulcair declaimed while a member of the Quebec provincial Liberal government that the success of the UK economy under Thatcher's Conservative Party rule was due to the "winds of liberty and liberalism" that "swept across the markets in England". Sounding very much like a neo-liberal apologist and pundit, Mulcair in 2001 said:"A government should never pretend it can replace the private market. It does not work," Mulcair said in 2001. "It didn't work in England. Up until Thatcher's time, that's what they tried, the government stuck its nose everywhere."This surely shows that Mulcair espouses conservative values even though as leader of an allegedly left-leaning party he may from time to time spout rhetoric he thinks appropriate to retaining his leftist base. If there is any doubt here is another bit from Mulcair that could easily come from a writer for the Fraser Institute: "..interventionism is a failure. A government can create the conditions conducive to the creation of jobs… but the best way for a government to create wealth is to let the private market thrive and to get off the back of business men and women."
Surely there is a compelling case for Conservative supporters to vote NDP this time around.


Sunday, August 23, 2015

NDP leads in polls with Conservatives trailing and Liberals third

The recent CBC poll tracker results show that the NDP continues to lead both in popular vote and in seats it is projected to win.
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The results from August 19 are from an average of a number of polls. The Conservatives have 29.2 per cent of the vote. This is down slightly from the last polls. The NDP were at 33.8, up 0.3 percent from last time. The Liberals were up 0.8 percent to 27.5 putting them close to the Conservatives. The separatist Bloc Quebecois was at 3.9 per cent a slight gain from earlier. The Green Party was at 4.7 percent down 1.1 percent.
The NDP would win the most seats, 132, but far from the 170 needed to form a majority government. The Conservatives would win 116 with the Liberals still quite a ways behind at 89. The Bloc Quebecois would win no seats and the Green Party just one. A regional breakdown is available at the poll tracker website.
We now have polls from Abacus Data and Angust Reid on Canadians' reaction to the Mike Duffy trial. Duffy a former Conservative Senator is facing numerous charges having to do with Senate expenses and other issues.
The polls show that almost one in four Canadians are following the trial closely. Only fifteen percent of those polled think that Harper acted properly in the Abacus poll, with a few more 20 percent in the Angus Reid poll. In the Reid poll over half, 56 percent, said the trial had made their opinion of Harper worse. While many of these voters had already decided they were going to vote Liberal or NDP, a significant number of soft Conservative supporters were negatively influenced by the trial. Soft Conservative voters are those considering voting for the party but not yet committed.
The Abacus Data poll found that a quarter of soft Conservative supporters now believe that Harper acted improperly and 20 percent said that the trial made them less likely to vote Conservative. One quarter of the group said they did not believer Harper's version of events in the Angus Reid poll, and another 42 per cent did not know whether they should believe him or not. Slightly less than a third said that the trial had caused them to have a worse opinion of Harper. The Harper view that the scandal is limited to the former PM's chief of staff Nigel Wright and Mike Duffy is rejected by 62 percent of those polled by Angus Reid. They thought more in the PMO were involved, that there was a deeper scandal. 23 percent of soft Conservatives also took this view. Further doubt was cast on Harper's version of events by Benjamin Perrin a former legal adviser to the PMO. Perrin said that he believed that Harper knew the full details of a plan to reimburse Duffy for his expenses and mislead the public about what was happening. It remains to be seen if the trial has any lasting effect over a long campaign with the election taking place on October 19.
If you are tired of all the mainstream parties in some constituencies you can vote for minor parties. As of August 18th there were 85 Libertarians running. The Christian Heritage Party is fielding 22 candidates. There are also 5 from the Pirate Party, 3 from the Rhinoceros, and one lonely Communist.


Wednesday, August 19, 2015

NDP leader Mulcair cracking down on leftist critics of Israel

The NDP is cracking down on candidates who go beyond the mildest criticism of Israel. Prospective candidates have also been rejected because of their support of the Palestinian cause and criticism of Israel.
The Conservatives are successfully using the tactic of looking up past statements of NDP candidates on social media such as Facebook in order to accuse them of being anti-Semitic. Harper's Conservatives are fawning admirers of Israel to such a degree that even the Israelis are surprised. Morgan Wheeldon was forced to resign as an NDP candidate after old Facebook comments he published were dug up and published, suggesting that Israel intended to engage in ethnic cleansing of a region.
Just a day later, Jerry Natanine, the Mayor of Clyde River and a prospective candidate for the NDP in Nunavut, said he had decided not to run after NDP headquarters suggested past statements he made on Facebook supporting the Palestinians could be used by opponents to claim he was anti-Semitic. Natanine had a number of Facebook posts in which he supported the Palestinian cause and criticized Israel. Natanine admitted he often sided with the Palestinians because of the hardships they face. He noted almost nothing was being rebuilt that had been destroyed in conflicts with Israel. In spite of being rebuffed by the NDP brass, Natanine said he still supports the party and would not run as an independent.
While NDP leaders have historically supported Israel on the whole, there have been groups within the NDP that have been activists in support of the Palestinian cause. Mulcair has expressed strong opposition to the boycott, divestment, and sanctions(BDS) movement against Israel. He had been highly critical of deputy leader Libby Davies for her support for BDS. Davies is not running for re-election this time around.
In 2008 Mulcair stated his position on Israel, a position that even Stephen Harper would praise: "I am an ardent supporter of Israel in all situations and in all circumstances." Mulcair unequivocally rejected the BDS movement: "To say that you're personally in favour of boycott, divestment and sanctions for the only democracy in the Middle East is, as far as I'm concerned, grossly unacceptable."
Back in 2014, Paul Manly was also disqualified as a candidate in a BC riding for his views on BDS. His father, James Manly, a former NDP MP, participated in a flotilla attempting to breach the Gaza blockade and was held for some time by Israel in 2012. Paul had petitioned both the NDP and Conservatives to work harder for his relief. This election he is running for the Green Party.
While the Conservatives use the politics of fear to pass legislation such as the draconian Bill-C-51 anti-terror legislation, and to convince voters that they are safer when the Conservatives rule, they also use the same fear tactic to keep parties such as the leftist NDP from allowing any strong support of Palestine or any but the mildest critique of Israeli actions. An article in Rabble sums up the situation:
This ugly and seemingly inexorable push by the NDP to insist on absolutely mindless unity and unanimity by all candidates and MPs on all issues that have been pronounced upon by the leader and his inner-circle strategists is a symptom of the dumbing-down of mainstream bourgeois politics generally. In 2015 the diversity and contrast of positions and policies between any of the major parties is more narrow than at any other time in our country's modern political history.This tendency may be the result of a concentration of all parties on being elected rather than attempting to promote a particular program or vision of the future. Discourse during elections is framed within a narrow range of alternatives that party strategists believe will garner votes.

NDP learns to live with development of the Tar Sands in Alberta

When left-leaning parties appear close to obtaining power, it seems inevitable that they should move to the centre of the political spectrum or even adopt right-wing policies. This is happening in Canada with the federal New Democratic Party.
Former New Democratic Party leader, Ed Broadbent, was skeptical that Thomas Mulcair would be able to hold together the NDP caucus. Mulcair comes not from an NDP background but was a cabinet minister in a Quebec Liberal provincial government. Broadbent thought it would be a huge mistake to replace NDP ideology that stressed support for the worker and welfare issues by a strategy of adopting policies simply because they would help members be elected. Mulcair stresses the NDP should concentrate upon being electable rather than stressing ideology. So far Broadbent has been wrong in that Mulcair has been able to keep his caucus functional in spite of his change in emphasis and an influx of a huge number of new MPs after the last election. The election resulted in the NDP becoming the official opposition ahead of the Liberals a huge victory for Mulcair. While for a time it looked as if the Liberals were making a huge comeback they now are stuck in third place in recent polls with the NDP still slightly ahead of the ruling Conservatives.
The latest CBC poll-tracker results, from August 11, show the NDP with 31.9 percent of the vote; the Conservatives, 30.1; the Liberals, 27 percent, all lower than in the last poll. The Liberal support increased after the first leaders' debate but has now fallen back slightly. The big gainer since the last reading was the Green Party led by Elizabeth May which had 5.6 percent support. The Quebec-based Bloc Quebecois had 4.5 per cent. The results are based on an average of several different polls. The seat projections show the Conservative still getting the most seats at 125, with the NDP close behind at 118, and the Liberals 92. The Bloc Quebecois would get one seat, and the Green Party two.
Every party these days seems to have decided that they should project their policies as supporting the "middle class." No doubt this is based upon the view that promoting policies that appeal to this largest group of voters would garner the most votes. The NDP has joined the crowd. No more targeting the poor or working class, since they are a smaller target group and restrict the range of the party's appeal. On issues such as trade, foreign policy, energy development, the NDP has watered down policies to appear less threatening or radical. The party is much less friendly these days to any potential candidate or existing members who take positions that are quite critical of Israel. Now that Alberta boasts an NDP provincial government even the Oil or Tar Sands development is seen in a different light.
Mulcair has moved even to the right of the Liberal party on issues such as income inequality. He rules out increasing taxes on the wealthy, while Justin Trudeau is in favour of an increase. Mulcair sounds like a typical conservative when he criticizes New Brunswick for raising taxes on the wealthy: “How is New Brunswick going to be able to attract and retain top-level medical doctors when they’re going to be told, ‘Oh, by the way, our tax rate is now going to be close to 60 per cent?’”
One of the NDP's star left-leaning candidates is author and activist Linda McQuaig. McQuaig started a huge controversy by stating what for many environmentalists is an obvious fact, recognized as long ago as 2012 by James Hansen, climatologist and former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who said:"If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate. Canada's tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet's species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk."
McQuaig made reference to a recent study by British researchers in the journal Nature that concluded that:" three-quarters of all Canada's oil reserves and 85 per cent of its oilsands can't be burned if the world wants to limit global warming. The report also concludes that no country's Arctic energy resources can be developed if global temperature increases are to be kept manageable. It adds that about one-quarter of Canada's natural gas reserves and four-fifths of its coal would also have to be left in the ground."This type of environmental discourse may be fine within environmental circles but is to be avoided at all costs within political discourse where the parties are emphasizing "electability."
McQuaig made the mistake of bringing these types of narrative into the political arena during an election campaign. McQuaig said during a panel discussion that a "lot of the oil-sands oil may have to stay in the ground" in order for Canada to meet its climate change targets. This was music to the ears of our Prime Minister Stephen Harper who immediately claimed that the NDP was against Canadian resource development. Instead of defending McQuaig the NDP issued a statement that McQuaig was not citing official NDP policy but referring to the report in Nature.
Mulcair, for his part, said that a Federal NDP government would support Alberta's oil sands development but with much stricter environmental controls than exist at present on any new developments. Mulcair has soothing rhetoric designed to placate both sides and make him electable:“We’re in favour of creating markets for our natural resources, we’re in favour of developing them, but that has to be done sustainably. And sustainable development is not a slogan, it’s something that has to become very real.”Mulcair also defends his policies and contrasts them with Harpers' policies on the appended video.


Sunday, August 9, 2015

NDP ahead of Conservatives by double digits in recent poll

The latest opinion poll by Forum Research taken on Sunday after Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced an election to be held October 19, show the NDP surging ahead of the Conservatives.
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As of July 28, the CBC Poll Tracker showed the NDP and the Conservatives in a virtual tie at about 32 percent of the vote. The Liberals trailed at 25 percent. The new poll showed 39 percent would vote for the NDP. The Conservatives fell back to 28 percent and the Liberals were about the same as the earlier polls.
If these results were projected into seats won in the enlarged 338 seat parliament, the NDP would win most seats at 160, 10 short of a majority. The NDP has come a long way from last December when it managed a meagre 17 percent support, even though it was the official opposition. The Liberals then had a commanding lead of 41 percent. President of Forum Research, Lorne Bozinoff, said that he could not find a single instance of the NDP leading by double digits ever before.
In the key province of Ontario the NDP and Conservatives are virtually even, but the Liberals are far behind. In Quebec the NDP has a good lead over the Liberals with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois far behind the top two. In the Atlantic provinces usually dominated by Liberals, the NDP is ahead and also leads in BC. While the NDP may form the provincial government in Alberta, at the federal level, Conservatives still dominate.
The CBC poll tracker includes the new poll in a recent update and it gives perhaps a more realistic assessment of the situation, since it averages several recent polls to come up with its results. But even it shows a considerable change from July 28 in favour of the NDP. The latest figures the poll tracker gives are for vote percentage: Conservatives, 30.9; NDP, 33.2: Liberals, 25.9; Bloc Quebecois, 4.7 and Green Party 4.7. Seat projections are: Conservatives, 127; NDP 127; Liberals 82: Bloc Quebecois 1; Green Party, 1.
This long 11 week election campaign may benefit the Conservatives who are rich with cash according to some pundits. Taxpayers will be paying out more for increased administrative costs and also bigger rebates of expenses to the parties.


Monday, August 3, 2015

NDP and Conservatives in virtual tie as federal election campaign begins

As expected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper met with the Governor General today. The parliament was dissolved and writs were issued for a federal election on October 19.
As of July 28 the CBC Poll Tracker shows the Conservative Party of Canada(CPC) is virtually tied with the New Democratic Party(NDP) while the Liberals, the third major party, lag behind in spite of their youthful good-looking leader Justin Trudeau. As of July 28, the Conservatives had 31.6 percent support, NDP 32.1 and Liberals, 25.6. However, the most recent seat projections by the same site give the Conservatives 132 seats, the NDP 122, and the Liberals just 81. The Quebec separatist Bloc Quebecois would win two seats and the Green Party one. Given the Canadian political system of first-past-the-post, a party could obtain the highest popular vote without winning the most seats. Seat projections can change considerably over a relatively short period to time. On July 7 the seat predictions were 119 for the Conservatives, 127 for the NDP, and 89 for the Liberals with the other minor parties being the same. Predictions for who will win in each separate riding can be found here.
The Conservatives have been regaining some lost ground lately to come even with the NDP but the Liberals appear to be stuck in the doldrums. The Poll Tracker has a graph showing support for the parties over time. The Liberals have been dropping for some time while the NDP surged but now is back even with the Conservatives. The Conservative fortunes were no doubt helped when last week the Harper government issued checks to families as part of Universal Child Care Benefit increases.
Together the NDP and the Liberals would have a large majority of seats. It would make strategic sense for the two to agree to a coalition government to replace the Harper government. A recent poll by Forum Research shows that over two-thirds of Liberal and NDP supporters are in favour of the two parties forming a coalition if the Conservatives should win a minority government on October 19. Seventy-five percent of NDP supporters are in favour of a coalition and even 68 percent of Liberals, even though the leader Justin Trudeau has consistently ruled out such a move.The NDP has said that it is open to the idea. Forum Research president, Lorne Bozinoff said: “The two opposition parties have spent the last week dancing around the coalition question, but it appears their supporters, especially the New Democrats, have no such qualms. They’re ready to get hitched as soon as a minority Conservative government is elected –– if that happens."

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Many Liberals angry at Trudeau's support of Harper anti-terror bill

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal Party have voiced their support for the Conservative Harper government's anti-terror bill c-51. Some Liberals are angry at this move.
Even the Liberal opposition leader in the Senate, James Cowan, said that he will break with party policy and vote against the controversial anti-terror bill. He said there is lack of oversight in the legislation and it also violates the Canadian Charter or Rights and Freedoms.
In a speech at the University of British Columbia, liberal leader Justin Trueau said that the party was supporting the anti-terror bill to prevent the Conservatives from making "political hay" using national security issues during an election year. Of course they will do so anyway. Trudeau's strategy is to support the bill, even though he knows it has many faults, because he can then avoid the Conservatives charging him with being soft on terrorism. In other words, he will sacrifice principle to gain votes by being seen as tough on terrorism. Trudeau's own remarks show that he worries about Conservative tactics rather than the content of the bill: “But we know that, tactically, this government would be perfectly happy if the opposition completely voted against this bill because it fits into their fear narrative and [their desire to] … bash people on security.”
Nevertheless he says he sympathizes with those who have concerns about Bill C-51 and said that if elected his government would amend the bill. Several questions from his student audience were critical of Trudeau's position. One young woman said: “Sir, I must say that supporting the bill that you know is dangerous while promising to reform it when you’ve been elected to government is tantamount to putting our rights hostage, and our vote is our ransom.”
Trudeau pointed to three measures in the Harper bill that were primary reasons he supported it. First, was strengthening the no-fly list. Second, extending powers to make preventive arrest making it easier for police to detain a person and hold them without charge or a warrant for a longer period. Finally, increased information sharing among government departments and agencies. Sounding much like Stephen Harper, Trudeau said:“[These] are significant improvements that will keep Canadians safer". These specific measures are ones that experts have concerns about. Privacy Commissioner Daniel Therrien said the scale of information sharing was unprecedented. and the safeguards against unreasonable invasion of privacy were "seriously deficient".The sharing of information includes income tax information. Trudeau apparently is not concerned about the Snowden revelations about extensive snooping by spy agencies. Law professor, Craig Forcese, said that after the Air India and Maher Arar investigations there were proposals for improving information sharing yet the government ignored those recommendations in drafting this bill.
Social media show images of Liberal supporters cutting up their party membership card in reaction to Trudeau's support for the anti-terror bill. Here are a couple of many critical comments on Trudeau's Facebook page: "Bill C-51 has passed and you helped do that. My vote is now with the NDP," reads one of the hundreds of comments on the Liberal leader's page. "Too bad you sold us out to spying by supporting Bill C-51," says another, reflecting the tenor of most of the comments.
The NDP, which voted against the bill, may gain some support as a result of the Liberal position. The bill has been sharply criticized by legal experts, academics, aboriginal groups, environmentalists, and many others. Some activists who might have supported the Liberals as their choice to oust the Conservative may now turn to the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair. This could make a significant difference in the election, more than any negative voter effect of being criticized as being soft on terrorism.


Monday, June 11, 2012

Opposition makes hundreds of amendments to "Frankentstein" Conservative budget bill



The official opposition the New Democrats, the Liberals, and the lone Green Party member submitted hundreds of amendments to the majority Conservative government's budget bill. The budget bill which the opposition has called a Frankenstein bill goes far beyond financial matters and setting forth the budget.

There is a huge revamping of environmental laws. The changers are streamlining according to the Conservatives but to the opposition they weaken environmental laws and rush through approvals to please industry. There are also changes to oversight of the security apparatus, changes to eligibility for social security and unemployment insurance and on and on.

The opposition asked that the bill be split. In particular they wanted the legislation on environmental policy changes to be separate so it could be debated and voted on separately. However the Conservatives have a majority and use it to push through whatever they want however they want to do it.

The speaker of the house Andrew Scheer grouped amendments that were similar together. He said:“I have made every effort to respect both the wishes of the House and my responsibility to organize the consideration of report stage motions in a fair and balanced manner,”

Bill C 38 the budget bill is 425 pages long. The sole Green Party member and leader Elizabeth May introduced more than 300 amendments. She is particularly concerned with changes to environmental policy.

In total the opposition made 871 motions and amendments. The bill changes more than 70 different laws many having nothing to do with the budget. By bunching the motions and amendments together Sheer has managed to reduce the votes required to a minimum of 67 and the maximum number to 159.

Originally it was predicted that voting would take days but now it can all be done it is predicted in one marathon day. For much more see this Globe and Mail article.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The NDP changes its tune and its colours.

Most politicians seem to be of the chameleon species no matter what their political stripes. The NDP certainly changed its tune once Ignatieff got serious about voting against the Conservatives. Of course now Ignatieff is quiet about that as well. Layton's opportunism does not seem to have hurt his poll numbers but then it has not helped them either. The NDP seems stuck in the doldrums. The only great leap forward in the NDP seems to be that of Gary Doer the former Manitoba premier, who is now busy defending Harper's environmental policy as Canadian ambassador to the US. This is from the Star.



HƩbert: For Jack Layton, a year of playing chameleon

Chantal HƩbert



For Jack Layton and the NDP, 2009 was a year of greater opportunism than opportunity.

Over a period when the opposition parties took more hits from the ruling Conservatives than they inflicted, his party turned out to be the most resilient.

Unlike Gilles Duceppe, Layton did not suffer the humiliation of losing a party fortress to the Conservatives in last month's by-elections. Unlike Michael Ignatieff, the NDP leader's own members are not questioning his competence these days, or at least not openly.

As a bonus, Green rival Elizabeth May was off the national radar for most of the year.

Layton had spent the bulk of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's first mandate on the sidelines but managed to carve out a more central role for his party in the second Conservative minority Parliament. That has translated into more presence in the media.

According to a year-end content analysis published last week by Influence Communication, Layton was the fourth most mentioned federal politician in the Canadian media this year, ahead of most of the Conservative cabinet. The Prime Minister, the leader of the official Opposition and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty took the top three spots.

Taken together though, none of the above adds up to an imminent rendezvous between the NDP and government or even the second-place role of official opposition in the House of Commons.

Two recent polls pegged NDP support nationally at around 16 per cent, within the margin of error of its score (18 per cent) in the last election. That suggests the New Democrats did not benefit in any lasting way from their greater visibility and/or from one of the worst Liberal falls on record.

So far, greater NDP relevance in Parliament is not translating into greater relevance with the voting public. And that may explain why, in 2009, the NDP got away with the political equivalent of murder on the issue of consistency.

First, there was the reversal – on a dime – of the party's long-standing policy of non-cooperation with the Conservatives on confidence issues.

In September, Layton latched on to adjustments to the EI regime as a reason to keep the Harper government in place even more quickly than he had dismissed the more substantial EI concessions of the previous Conservative budget in January.

Then in November, a third of the NDP caucus and half-a-dozen Liberals voted with the Conservatives against the long-gun registry. Ignatieff took a lot of flak for that, in particular in Quebec; Layton increased his share of the vote in a downtown Montreal riding.

Finally, there was the NDP decision to use the purview of the Commons to wage war on the economic policies of Ontario and British Columbia. By campaigning aggressively against provincial plans for a harmonized sales tax, Layton is hoping to ride the wave of populist discontent that attends their upcoming advent.

In the last election, a similar move against StƩphane Dion's carbon tax paid off for the NDP. But it also indisposed a large significant section of Canada's environmental community.

The HST crusade is at least as questionable for it sends a troubling message as to Layton's rather elastic vision of federalism, in which it is apparently okay for the federal government to intervene in, even put a spoke into, the fiscal policies of its provincial partners.

Looking back on 2009, one can only marvel at Layton's ability to surf on the contrary waves that came his way.

He truly seemed to bask in the eternal sunshine of a spotless policy mind.




Chantal HƩbert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Friday, August 14, 2009

NDP needs to change risk-averse policy

Actually the so-called risk averse policy is very risky for a supposedly left wing party. In Great Britain where the Third Way worked for labour for many years the Labour Party was the alternative to the Conservatives but as the article notes the NDP is a fourth ranked party. Generally people do not see it as an alternative governing party but part of the opposition. Adopting pragmatic main stream parties designed to appeal to most everyone simply leaves the NDP competing for the same group as the Conservatives and Liberals and those parties are already better at that and have more funds They will lose supporters to parties such as the Greens on the environment and to the Liberals as well since they will be seen as having similar policies to the middle of the road NDP but a better chance at governing.

One problem with the NDP is that it is impatient for power even though it has been relatively successful at the provincial level. J.S. Woodsworth the famous CCF leader was quite pleased when the CCF was able to garner 16 per cent of the vote running on an outright socialist platform. Even though he had only a handful of elected representatives they were able to push the old line parties much further to the left than if he had been concentrating on moving to the middle to try and elect more members. However, during all of its existence the NDP has been more concerned with gaining power and has dropped any pretence of trying to replace capitalism by a socialist system. Even a social democratic program is probably too radical for the NDP now or the new party whatever it will be called. This article is dead on the mark but no doubt it will be rejected as leading the NDP back into the wilderness. Sometimes the wilderness is good for the soul.


Risk-averse party will be relevant again when it dumps pragmatism and embraces controversy

August 13, 2009 David Goutorassistant professor of labour studies at McMaster University

As the New Democratic Party's convention prepares to open tomorrow, it appears the main topic for debate will be a proposed name change to "Democratic Party."
Many initial impressions of the idea seem to be positive, particularly because adopting a new name (ironically by dropping the word "New") has been seen as a means of getting the party out of the rut it has been stuck in the last few years.
These initial impressions are entirely wrong.
The NDP's focus on a name change is actually a perfect manifestation of the thinking that has put the party in its current rut. In particular, focusing on the party's name is exactly the type of unimaginative, play-it-safe move that has become typical of the NDP. This cautiousness, in turn, is exactly the approach the NDP cannot afford.
At the most basic level, today's NDP is a truly remarkable phenomenon: it is a fourth-place party, usually stuck in the teens in the polls, and purporting to represent the most marginalized groups in society – yet it has become stubbornly risk-averse, acting as if it has too much to lose to speak out strongly on many key issues facing the country.
When it comes to strategy, the NDP was certainly bold in lunging for power through the coalition. It also has a notable amount of talent in its parliamentary caucus, with even right-wing commentators praising NDP MPs for being knowledgeable and performing effectively in parliamentary committees.
But when it comes to the party's main policies, a mind-numbing blandness has set in. There are few instances where the NDP has boldly taken a controversial position on a key issue.
If you have visited the NDP's website frequently in the last couple of years, you were much more likely to read about credit card rates, bank fees, and insurance premiums than central economic, social, or foreign-policy questions.
A particularly deep part of the NDP's rut is that avoiding controversy has become to be seen as the "pragmatic" approach. Standing out on major issues, meanwhile, is viewed as the "radical" approach that will keep the NDP on the fringes. But if pragmatism means anything, it is paying attention to results. The results of the recent "pragmatic" approach are in, and they are dispiriting.
The party failed to break out of fourth place, or even break its old record for seats in Parliament, in an election against the weakest leader the Liberals have ever had in StƩphane Dion. Moreover, the NDP suffered greatly from the backlash against the proposed coalition government, with Jack Layton's personal popularity especially hard hit.
Dismissing more controversial stands as a "radical" tactic is also ridiculous. If there is one thing that the NDP has to recognize, it is that Canadian politics has moved so far to the right that the party no longer needs to take radical positions to stand out. Eminently moderate positions are now far outside the so-called mainstream.
The best example is Canada's biggest foreign policy issue: Afghanistan. At its last convention in 2006, the NDP adopted the policy of withdrawing Canadian troops and negotiating with the Taliban.
But after facing a backlash from some quarters, Layton and other NDP leaders have been far from eager to pursue this issue. Indeed, it has been widely noted how rarely Afghanistan is seriously debated in Ottawa at all.
Meanwhile, over the last three years, opposition to our mission in Afghanistan among the Canadian public has grown to the point where it is now the majority view. Staying out of Afghanistan (or at least avoiding combat roles) is also the position of the overwhelming majority of NATO countries.
A vast number of security and defence experts in the West have been vocal in complaining about flaws in NATO's strategy. Most recently, negotiating with at least some members of the Taliban has been seriously contemplated by the British and American governments.
All of this should constitute a major vindication for the NDP.
Instead, the party's sense of "pragmatism" has dictated that it avoid upholding its own position, even as Canadian voters, key allies, and experts in the field come to agree with most of it.
Another example is trade policy. This, too, should be fertile ground for the NDP, as the free-trade orthodoxies still revered by most Canadian politicians and pundits have steadily lost credibility in much of the rest of the world.
Protectionism has been rising gradually in the U.S. for years, as witnessed by the softwood lumber dispute.
Many Latin American governments openly reject free-market nostrums. Last year, the refusal of rich Western nations to actually practice free trade caused developing nations to walk out of negotiations on farm subsidies at a World Trade Organization meeting. .
Even if it is too much to ask for the NDP to challenge free-trade theology head on, at least it could have insisted that in an era of globalization, Canadian leaders need to recognize major shifts in attitudes outside our borders. It could have emerged as the main voice warning Canadians about the most recent wave of protectionism, including the "Buy American" policy, and demanding that Canada stop acting as the world's naĆÆve little cub scout about trade matters.
In short, the NDP is not stuck far behind the other parties because it has lacked opportunities to offer distinct policies that would have, with time, proven to be both prescient and popular. What has been missing is the basic will to take the heat that comes with going against the grain.
Whatever the party wants to call itself, the biggest priority at this convention should be shaking out of the fundamental culture of risk-aversion, of venturing nothing but still hoping to make gains, that has taken over the NDP in recent years.
David Goutor is the author of Guarding the Gates: The Canadian Labour Movement and Immigration, 1872-1934.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

NDP considering dropping "new" from their name.

Perhaps the party ought to have a new name but becoming the Democratic Party would confirm only that the party is moving further to the right than ever and trying to associate itself with the Democratic Party in the U.S. Maybe the NDP position on Afghanistan should change as well and the party should urge Harper to keep on sending troops and supplies idefinitely to support their hero Obama and the Democratic Party of the U.S.
One thing is sure there will be nothing about socialism in the name. No doubt even the name Social Democratic Party will be too radical. The party seems to be adopting the Third Way of Labour in the UK in fact embracing capitalism to try and save a few remnants of the welfare state and concentrate on getting a group of "progressives" into power so as to enjoy the perks of power.
So will the acronym be DP party? Dimwits party. Depressed Party. Doldrums Party.


NDP considering dropping 'new' from their name


By Juliet O'Neill, Canwest News ServiceAugust 3, 2009




NDP leader Jack Layton at a Toronto campaign stop, Sept. 29, 2008.
Photograph by: Brett Gundlock/National Post, National Post
OTTAWA -- Nearly 50 years after the New Democratic Party was founded, its members are soon to decide whether to lop "new" from their name.
The question is whether to do it abruptly in two weeks at a convention in Halifax or to put it to a consultation process and make the decision in two years at the half-century mark.
Whether the NDP should be renamed the "Democratic Party" promises a lively debate and vote by about 1,000 delegates at the party's national biennial convention in Halifax Aug. 14-16th.
"It's simply that we're no longer new," Windsor West MP Brian Masse said in an interview.
"We're an established Canadian party that has shaped many public policies in Canada, that has been instrumental in health care, pension reform and progressive environmental and economic issues. I think this is a natural evolution. Drop the new from the name and run with the 'Democratic Party.'
Masse and other proponents of the change reject the idea the NDP seeks a shortcut association with the more popular Democratic Party in the United States.
"I don't think anybody's going to confuse Barack Obama and Jack Layton," scoffs NDP activist Ian Capstick, a media consultant who worked for Layton, the party leader, for several years.
Five riding associations have proposed resolutions for the convention to remove "new" from the name. Three of them - Windsor West, Victoria and Western Arctic - want it done at the convention.
Two others, Ottawa Centre and Hull-Aylmer, propose the national executive conduct consultations on a name change and come up with recommendations for the next convention two years away at the half-century mark.
"If we just change the name without changing the way we do business, it's not really a worthy project," says Paul Dewar, MP for Ottawa Centre.
While Dewar wants to "get the ball rolling" on a name change and believes NDP provincial governments are open to a change, he says it has to be part of more profound internal renewal.
He says the NDP has to modernize its methods to connect better with Canadians involved in environmental, human rights and other issues outside of party politics.
In related resolutions, delegates will be asked whether to separate the NDP's provincial and federal memberships, which total about 70,000.
"As the caucus gets larger, as we build our infrastructure and get our party into more of a breakthrough mode, these issues are taking on a greater significance," says NDP national director Brad Lavigne.
The NDP holds 36 of 308 seats in the Commons, making it the smallest of the four parties. It holds two of ten provincial governments - Nova Scotia and Manitoba - and has in the past governed in B.C., Ontario, Saskatchewan and Yukon, but never at the federal level.
NDP national director Brad Lavigne says Layton is not weighing in on the name change or membership split. Layton does not take a position on constitutional proposals, which require a two-thirds majority. It's up to the grassroots to decide, Lavigne said.
The Canadian Labour Congress has not taken a position yet either, said a spokesman for the union umbrella organization.
"I don't think it can be cosmetic," said Capstick. "We have a problem. We're not hitting over 20 per cent in the polls. And it's not a problem that's unfixable. We are a growing political movement that can grow bigger faster. A re-branding exercise would allow us to refocus."
Capstick says other parties, notably the Conservatives, have survived and flourished through such changes. The remaking of the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation into the NDP in 1961 "revived the left."
Masse says his riding association intends the change as a positive step that reflects pride and confidence in a party with a 48-year record of achievement. He is not campaigning really hard for the change, however. "I don't believe in a confrontation for a name change," he said.
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

NDP: Window for defeating Harper minority government closing

Ignatieff was very cool on the coalition in any event so if, as the NDP suggests, Harper puts enough in the budget that Ignatieff can support it, both Conservatives and Liberals will be happy to say goodbye to the coalition. Ignatieff uses the idea of a coalition simply as a rather limp club to cudgel Harper into concessions. Ignatieff will be glad to have time to rebuild and refinance the Liberal party before the next election is called.
This is from the Canadian Press.

Window for defeating Harper minority government closing, says NDP
21 hours ago
OTTAWA — The NDP is warning the Liberals they likely have at most a few months to defeat the minority Conservative government and replace it with a coalition that would make Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff prime minister.
And MP Thomas Mulcair, the NDP finance critic, held out a veiled threat to Ignatieff that his party may not be willing to topple the government at a later, more conducive time for the Liberals.
Speaking Tuesday before handing Finance Minister Jim Flaherty his party's wish list for the Jan. 27 budget, Mulcair appeared as intent on sending a message to the Liberals as he was the Harper Conservatives about his party's position on the budget.
Last November, then Liberal leader Stephane Dion and NDP Leader Jack Layton formed a coalition, with Bloc Quebecois backing, to topple the government in the hopes Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean would turn to the coalition rather than call another election on the heels of the October vote.
But that hope was dashed when Jean agreed to suspend Parliament until Jan. 26. Since then Ignatieff replaced Dion and has been decidedly cooler to the coalition prospect, saying he would support a budget that met his party's demands to stimulate the economy.
Mulcair suggested the Conservatives are laying a trap and will spike the budget with enough concessions to opposition demands to secure survival beyond the point where the Governor General would call on a Liberal-NDP coalition to form the government.
"They are simply trying to get themselves beyond the date after which the Governor General rather than giving the other parties a chance to govern, would (agree) to an election," he said.
Mulcair said the consensus among experts is that if the government survives six months from the Oct. 14 election, Jean is unlikely to turn to a coalition in case of a non-confidence vote.
On the NDP's part, it would take "a miracle" for Flaherty to get his party's support on the budget, he said.
The miracle would be a document that proposes about $32 billion in stimulus spending with a massive infusion of infrastructure spending, direct aid to at-risk sectors such as forestry, increased employment insurance benefits and help for families.
He said the NDP would not support an across-the-board cut to corporate taxes, describing previous reductions in the rate as a big mistake that favoured the resources and financial sectors that were doing well, while abandoning manufacturing and forestry, two battered sectors of the economy.
But the biggest problem, he said, is that Harper and Flaherty don't believe in government intervention in the economy.
Following the near-death experience of his November economic update, Flaherty has repeatedly said he would spend billions of dollars to stimulate the economy, as well as cut back taxes to spur spending.
"We're trying to do the right thing," the finance minister told a news conference Monday. "This is unprecedented. This budget is about ensuring that Canada has actions taken that Canada needs . . . to get through the consequences in Canada of a synchronized global recession."
More signs that Canada has entered into a significant recession appeared Tuesday with a report showing Canada's trade surplus with the world fell to $1.3 billion in November, the smallest surplus in more than a decade. Making matters worse, Statistics Canada revised the October surplus down to $2.3 billion from the previously-stated $3.8 billion.
While many governments are raising spending massively, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke had some sobering news for those thinking fiscal stimulus will cure the world's economist malaise.
"Fiscal actions are unlikely to promote a lasting recovery unless they are accompanied by strong measures to further stabilize and strengthen the financial system. History demonstrates conclusively that a modern economy cannot grow if its financial system is not operating effectively," he said.
TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond said that logic applied to Canada's economy as well, saying the Flaherty and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney must find a way to free up lending so Canadians and businesses can borrow, spend and invest.
Drummond said the most important issue for bank lending is the cost of five-year funding. He said today's costs to banks of securing medium term financing is 2.8 percentage points above the Government of Canada five-year bond rate, compared to just a 0.14 of a point above before the financial and credit crunch hit.
"If you've got no interbank lending, you've got the corporate spreads as wide as they are and you have the bank cost of funds as high as they are, there's no way you can sustain a growing economy," he said.
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Friday, February 1, 2008

Layton on Afghan Mission

This is the text of a talk by Jack Layton at the Univ. of Ottawa from the NDP site. This is an interesting article and makes some good critical points against the view that a combat role is most important but on the other hand parts of his paper represent idealism on steroids and Layton completely fails to locate the Canadian mission in a global context and to its relationship to US imperialism. Layton doesn't examine how we got into the mission in the first place or question the self-defence arguments of the promoters of Operation Enduring Freedom. Apparently my own view does not exist as an option: withdrawing altogether and using aid money saved in places where it will have more effect and not become part of an imperialist strategy.

NATO in Afghanistan: From Bad to Worse – The wrong role for Canada
Wed 30 Jan 2008
Jack Layton's speech at the University of Ottawa
Introduction
It is great to be with you here tonight.
I want to thank the Group of 78 for inviting me here tonight.
I also want to thank the University of Ottawa NDP club and our Foreign Affairs Critic and Member of Parliament for Ottawa Centre, Paul Dewar for helping with tonight and the promotion.
It is a pleasure to be here with you to discuss a topic that has rightfully captured the attention, of not only scholars of foreign relations, the academic community, and Parliamentarians, but also everyday Canadians in every corner of this country.
I have the opportunity to travel extensively across Canada. Everywhere I travel, people raise the issue of the war in Afghanistan.
And that’s a good thing.
For the worst thing to happen to a country during war-time is to somehow become indifferent.
Canadians are anything but indifferent.
Afghanistan is important to us as a people, because the manner in which we help the people of Afghanistan is integral to how we, as Canadians, define who we are and the role we aspire to for Canada to play on the world stage.
And in the coming weeks, Parliament will once again be called upon to make decisions that will draft the definition of who we are as a country for an entire generation.
I believe there are two very different visions emerging about what Canada’s role in Afghanistan should be and ultimately, how we wish to define ourselves as Canadians.
One vision suggests that Canada should continue to participate in a counter-insurgency war with increased soldiers, helicopters and unmanned drones until quote “the job is done.”
This vision has its roots planted in the Liberal government’s executive decision to send Canadian troops into Afghanistan six years ago without a deadline, an exit strategy or any definition or measurement for success.
This vision is premised on the notion that through a counter-insurgency combat mission, NATO forces will create the conditions that bring about security and stability and improve the lives of the Afghan people.
To date, not only has this approach failed to achieve these goals, it has had the opposite effect.
At the same time, there is a second vision for Canada’s role in Afghanistan – one that focuses on bringing about security, stability and improving the lives of the Afghan people by building a path toward peace.
This is the approach that I believe Canada must follow.
It’s also the approach that millions of average Canadians believe should be followed and I’m proud to lead the Party that gives voice to that shared vision.
It’s also an approach that we are encouraging other Parliamentarians to embrace.
I can share with you tonight that earlier today I spoke with Mr. Dion, leader of the Liberal Party and appealed to him not to follow Mr. Harper in extending the combat role for Canada in Afghanistan, but to join with us charting a new direction to truly help the people of Afghanistan.
Just as Mr. Harper has extended a hand to Mr. Dion for his approach, so too am I extending a hand to Mr. Dion to embrace our approach.
Mr. Dion has some decisions to make. And I look forward to a continued dialogue over the coming days and weeks.
And tonight, I want to talk about our approach. I want to lay out our vision for the role that Canada should play in Afghanistan.
But first, it is important to understand the current situation and why the approach being taken by NATO, the previous Liberal and the current Conservative government is not working.
Review of the Current Situation in Afghanistan
According to Canadian government officials, one of the main reasons for participation in the counter-insurgency combat mission is to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.
But the situation is not getting better - it’s getting worse.
In September 2006, Malalai Joya, the courageous Afghan MP who has dared to take on corrupt and violent officials in her own Parliament, told 2,000 people at the NDP’s convention that there has been “no fundamental change in the plight of the Afghan people” since this recent war began.
She told us that “then entire country is living under the shadow of guns and warlordism.”
In the year and a half since she stunned me and the 2,000 others in that room, the situation has not improved.
Over the last few months, food prices, particularly for wheat and wheat flour, have increased by 60 to 80 per cent.
Because of these price increases, 3 million Afghans cannot afford to eat.
In addition to rising food costs, the number of areas that are too dangerous for aid workers to access is growing – once concentrated in the south they have now spread to pockets all over the country.
Aid groups have long warned of the dangers of blurring the divide between military and humanitarian efforts.
According to Gerry Barr, who speaks on behalf of Canada’s development groups:
“There needs to be some space between them. They need to be independent. If not, we can end up with civilians being targeted.”
Yet the bulk of Canadian spending continues to be funnelled to the combat mission – at the expense of development.
In fact, this morning we learned that total spending on the military mission in Afghanistan has reached a total of $7 billion – more than half of that spent since Canadian troops joined the combat mission in Kandahar.
Over the same period, only $670 million was spent on development aid.
Sadly, we have seen the results of a blurring of the divide between military and humanitarian operations in the pattern of attacks on schools.
Oxfam has found that schools built by international military forces are twice as likely to be targeted by militants as those built by civilian agencies.
Nonetheless, more and more development dollars are going through the Provincial Reconstruction Teams, so that, in fact, military interests are driving increasingly who gets aid, and what kind of aid they get.
The deteriorating humanitarian situation was also highlighted extensively in the report of the Independent Panel on Canada’s Future Role in Afghanistan.
In addition to the deteriorating humanitarian aid situation:
Opium production, which finances the insurgency, is up;
Crime is up;
Corruption is up;
Rates of insurgent and terrorist violence are up; – 20 per cent since 2006.
The number of Afghan civilians killed is up; – doubling since 2005.
The counter-insurgency combat mission has failed to build;
security for the Afghan people;
a robust economy;
a vibrant democracy;
gender equality; or
a stable and lasting peace.
The evidence suggests that the current approach – after being given seven years to prove itself effective – is not working.
NATO’s Role: The Wrong Approach
And one reason that it’s not working is because NATO is the wrong organization to be in charge.
NATO is a regional defence organization that has been searching for a purpose since the end of the Cold War.
It is a military organization that does not possess the experience, expertise or inclination to deal with the diplomatic and humanitarian needs in Afghanistan.
In short, NATO’s military focus makes it a questionable fit for the task of nation-building.
And aside from it being a bad match in Afghanistan – it has executed its activities poorly.
Coordination efforts in Afghanistan have been hampered by internal divisions.
The US, Canada and Britain have taken on the bulk of the counter-insurgency, while the other European countries have placed considerable caveats on their involvement.
Those caveats are not the result of cowardice.
Rather, they indicate certain scepticism about the prospects for military victory.
Even the Manley Report noted the “harmful shortcomings” in NATO’s counterinsurgency campaign.
I’m quoting here:
“A top-heavy command structure at ISAF headquarters in Kabul;
An absence of a comprehensive strategy directing all ISAF forces in collaboration with the Afghan government;
Inadequate coordination between military and civilian programs for security, stabilization, reconstruction and development.”
The Wrong Mission for Canada
But the blame cannot be laid on NATO exclusively; the Canadian government must also take responsibility.
Just look at the detainee transfer issue that once again emerged as a top issue this week – and with good reason.
While other NATO members are forthcoming with information, Canada is keeping its citizens in the dark.
And the response of the Prime Minister reminds me of the guy who being in the driver’s seat, never admits to being lost and is too stubborn to ask for directions.
And sometimes, our prime minister doesn’t want to be in that driver’s seat, like yesterday when I asked him why the British, Dutch, and Americans release their detainee information to their publics without compromising their national security. He said if our military wanted to give out such information, it would be up them!
Many who have read the Manley report have observed that its recommendations do not logically flow from the body of the report.
The report devotes page after page to describing the short-comings of the NATO mission as well the worsening conditions for the Afghan people, yet its key recommendation calls for a continued combat role for Canada if increased soldiers and equipment can be secured.
Despite the fact that things are getting worse, the Manley report says that Canada should do more of the same.
I think that’s wrong.
When we know that a particular approach is failing, we have a choice.
We can pick another approach.
Today, there are two choices in front of us – the approach that successive Canadian governments have set or we can embark on a new approach.
The current approach intensifies the war.
It is an approach that many others have taken before in Afghanistan …
From Alexander the Great, to the British in 19th century, to the Russians in the last century.
The Russians were in Afghanistan for 10 years.
At one point they made decision to switch from a ground effort to using helicopters because they thought that it would mean fewer casualties for soldiers.
This is what Manley is proposing Canadian troops do.
But when the Russians made the switch, insurgents secured ground to air missiles and shot down helicopters.
Is that where we are headed?
Towards an increasingly intense and armed combat approach?
There is no evidence that that approach will work. In fact the evidence illustrates that it won’t.
It doesn’t make sense to think that adding 1,000 soldiers to 36,000 that are already there is somehow going to tip the balance.
It’s time for Canada to make a break with the past.
The Liberals and Conservatives have taken us down an all too familiar path.
But the signposts are clear: they say “Cul de Sac”.
Why do we have to go all the way to the end to see for ourselves?
Imagine ourselves 10 years from now.
We could be having a debate about whether to add yet more troops so as to finally secure victory in Afghanistan.
This is where I predict we will be if the government’s proposals are adopted.
A wearied Canadian public will be grappling with the same questions and many more families will be mourning the loss of their loved ones.
Now, imagine that we pick the other approach.
In ten years the history writers will be recording that there was a turning point in history when the clarion call of Canada was heard.
They will be teaching that Canada’s decision provoked a reconsideration of the impasse into which the Afghan conundrum was finding itself increasingly locked.
The first step along this path is the clear indication that we are withdrawing our troops now through an operational plan for a safe and secure withdrawal.
Some ask: Why start there?
Quite simply because, being combatants, chasers of insurgents, and escalators of war – will deny us any credibility to serve as leaders for peace.
Some say that by pulling out Canada would be harming NATO.
Yesterday, NATO spokesperson James Appathurai, flatly denied that speculation.
As reported in the Ottawa Citizen this morning he said and I’m quoting “I think that making links between this (Canada’s possible withdrawal) and NATO’s credibility are quite frankly unnecessary”
In the debate over the future of Afghanistan ours is not the only voice calling for a new approach. President Karzai, Afghan Parliamentarians and aid groups have all spoken of the need to kick-start the dialogue that will bring about a lasting peace.
Even former deputy minister of foreign affairs, Gordon Smith, has recently said that: “What is needed is a process of substantial conversation or reorientation of anti-state elements into an open and non-violent political dynamic”
I believe that Canada should be working to ensure that exactly this type of ‘conversation’ take place in Afghanistan.
We should be using the considerable skills and expertise of Canadians to bring the various actors in Afghanistan to the table.
We should be working to put in place an effective disarmament programme.
65% of Afghans say that disarmament is the most important step toward improving security in Afghanistan.
But the current effort has not gone far enough to make a significant impact.
Taking the path to peace through diplomacy also means involving regional actors in discussions. Pakistan in particular.
Regional cooperation is vital to any successful strategy for regional security and peace.
The path to peace requires a political, not a military, approach.
To carry out this vision, the key international body involved in Afghanistan must be the UN, not NATO.
Unlike NATO, the UN’s explicit mandate is to preserve and promote international peace and security.
The UN agencies tasked with carrying out this mandate have a vital role to play in meeting the challenges of Afghanistan:
UNICEF
The United Nations Development fund for Women
The World Health Organization
The United Nations Development Programme
The United Nations Disarmament Commission
And of course, the United Nations Peacebuildng Commission headed up by Canadian Carolyn McAskie
All too often, we focus on the UN-led peace-keeping missions that did not succeed. Missions in Somalia, Rwanda, and Bosnia.
But there are many other examples of successes – like East Timor, Cambodia or Mozambique.
Consider for a moment the enormous impact that the UN peacekeeping mission had in East Timor.
UN efforts there helped to protect a nascent and fragile independent state.
With the help of the UN, the Timorese were able to surmount incredible odds – years of violence and repression – and create a largely stable and successful state.
There are lessons to be learned from the UN’s failures – but also from its successes.
It’s time to apply these lessons to Afghanistan.
To do this, one of the UN’s member states must boldly suggest this approach.
I believe that Canada should be that state, and make this our calling in the months to come. This role resonates with our values and our hopes here in Canada.
Conclusion
I believe that Canada can and should be a voice of moderation, realism and peace on the world stage.
And to become that voice, we must embrace a new approach for Canada as well as for the international community.
One of the tenets of just-war theory is that a country must have a reasonable chance of success in order for that war to be legitimate. But under the NATO approach, there is no evidence of such a success in Afghanistan.
The experience of the last seven years of NATO engagement has shown that a military approach is not working.
It’s time for Canada to change its approach, withdraw from the combat mission and lead a process for peace and stability.
Michael Byers, one of Canada’s leading experts in Global Politics and International Law, has warned that:
“Our involvement in the counter-insurgency mission in southern Afghanistan, has challenged our commitment to international humanitarian law and precluded our involvement in important UN peacekeeping missions elsewhere.”
Canadians have prided themselves on their principled, strategic and compassionate stand on foreign affairs.
They are proud of the accomplishments of Canadians on the world stage:
Of John Humphrey who drafted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights;
Of Stephen Lewis who has tireless fought for AIDS sufferers in Africa;
And many more like them.
We could add that list; Afghanistan – but we must be willing to lead the way on the path to peace.
As Lester B. Pearson said: “Of all our dreams today there is none more important - or so hard to realise - than that of peace in the world. May we never lose our faith in it or our resolve to do everything that can be done to convert it one day into reality.”
It will take courage and leadership, as it always has.
But in the end, I believe that is the approach Canadians will want to take because that is how Canadians wish to define themselves and the role they aspire Canada to play on the world stage.
Thank you very much.