Obviously Ignatieff emphasizes turfing out the Conservatives less. However, he claims he will continue to vote against them on confidence motions. He had better hope the Bloc or NDP save Harper or should I say save Ignatieff!
Conservatives maintain poll lead
Last Updated: Thursday, October 22, 2009
CBC News
Federal voting intentions were polled by EKOS between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20. (EKOS)
The Conservative Party maintained its substantial advantage over the Liberal Party in the latest weekly poll from EKOS.
According to the latest poll, which was released exclusively to the CBC, the Conservatives had the support of 38.3 per cent of respondents, down from 40.7 per cent last week.
Liberal support rose to 27.1 per cent from 25.5 per cent.
The NDP rose 0.2 percentage points to 14.5 per cent, while Green Party support grew half a percentage point to 11 per cent.
Support for the Bloc Québécois slipped by 0.1 percentage points to nine per cent.
The latest EKOS poll was conducted by phone between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20. EKOS asked 3,270 Canadians how they would vote were an election held tomorrow. Both landline and cellphone users were included. The results have an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
EKOS president Frank Graves said the news of last week was dominated more by the use of Conservative logos on "prop" cheques by MPs at funding announcements than on Liberal attempts to trigger a federal election.
On Tuesday, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said he was in no hurry to bring down the minority Conservative government.
Speaking at an Ottawa daycare centre, Ignatieff said he wouldn't support the Conservatives on confidence motions, but added that he won't actively pursue attempts to bring them down.
Showing posts with label Federal poll of party support. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal poll of party support. Show all posts
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Polls Point to likelihood of Tories being saved for a while!
I actually think that it is a good idea to support the Conservative government on the EI and home improvement tax credit. However, it makes Harper's carping about the NDP and the Bloc co-operating the Liberals look rather foolish. Now those horrible separatists and socialists are voting for Harper policies. Must be something wrong with them! Iggy has a reprieve as well he can bellow and blow all he wants and vote against the government in perfect safety..
However, Harper can always blow this brief period of co-operation by introducing legislation that none of the opposition will support. There still could be an election provoked later in the session. If the Conservatives get far enough ahead of the Liberals they could very well provoke an election and Iggy would no doubt be forced to go into battle or completely loose face.
Conservative lead widens in poll
Last Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:53 AM ET
CBC News
The Conservatives have widened their lead over the Liberal Party, a new poll suggests, as federal election speculation continues.
The EKOS poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 35.1 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with 9 per cent.
The Conservative lead increased slightly from last week’s poll, which saw the Tories with 34.2 per cent of support and the Liberals with 30.8 per cent. The NDP rose from 14.8 per cent, the Bloc slipped from 10 per cent, and the Green Party slipped from 10.1 per cent.
Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.
Ontario continues to look like a tight race for the Conservatives and Liberals. As well, there appeared to be little change in Quebec, with the Bloc still on top with 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals (27 per cent) and the Tories (16 per cent).
The Liberal vow to try to bring down the government at their first opportunity has fuelled election speculation. But the NDP said on Wednesday it will align itself with the Conservatives in order to pass a Tory plan to extend employment insurance for long-tenured workers — a move that could rule out an election in the near future.
The poll also found that party platform plays a major role in how many Canadians vote.
Around 42 per cent of those polled said that was the most important factor in determining which party they would vote for. Twenty-two per cent said party leader was the most important factor and 19 per cent placed most importance with the local candidate. About 19 per cent said none of the above.
The survey of 3,164 people was conducted by telephone between Sept. 9 and Sept. 15, 2009 and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Both landline and cellphone users were included.
However, Harper can always blow this brief period of co-operation by introducing legislation that none of the opposition will support. There still could be an election provoked later in the session. If the Conservatives get far enough ahead of the Liberals they could very well provoke an election and Iggy would no doubt be forced to go into battle or completely loose face.
Conservative lead widens in poll
Last Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:53 AM ET
CBC News
The Conservatives have widened their lead over the Liberal Party, a new poll suggests, as federal election speculation continues.
The EKOS poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 35.1 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with 9 per cent.
The Conservative lead increased slightly from last week’s poll, which saw the Tories with 34.2 per cent of support and the Liberals with 30.8 per cent. The NDP rose from 14.8 per cent, the Bloc slipped from 10 per cent, and the Green Party slipped from 10.1 per cent.
Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.
Ontario continues to look like a tight race for the Conservatives and Liberals. As well, there appeared to be little change in Quebec, with the Bloc still on top with 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals (27 per cent) and the Tories (16 per cent).
The Liberal vow to try to bring down the government at their first opportunity has fuelled election speculation. But the NDP said on Wednesday it will align itself with the Conservatives in order to pass a Tory plan to extend employment insurance for long-tenured workers — a move that could rule out an election in the near future.
The poll also found that party platform plays a major role in how many Canadians vote.
Around 42 per cent of those polled said that was the most important factor in determining which party they would vote for. Twenty-two per cent said party leader was the most important factor and 19 per cent placed most importance with the local candidate. About 19 per cent said none of the above.
The survey of 3,164 people was conducted by telephone between Sept. 9 and Sept. 15, 2009 and has an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Both landline and cellphone users were included.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Poll says Conservatives, Liberals in virtual tie.
This is from CTV.
The results are not at all promising for the Conservatives and even less so for the NDP. Personally I fail to see any positive reason for the Liberal support going up. Ignatieff is simply profiting from the bad economy and Harper's lacklustre performance. The NDP rarely gets any coverage.
Poll says Conservatives, Liberals in virtual tie
Updated Tue. Apr. 7 2009 11:01 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
The federal Liberals have the Conservatives locked in a virtual tie for voter support across Canada, a new poll suggests.
The latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted between April 2 and April 5 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, has the Grits ahead of the governing party by two percentage points, which is within the poll's margin of error.
Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel says the Conservatives should be concerned about the trend line, which firmly shows their support dropping and the Liberals' support growing since January.
"Those are very clear lines and for the Conservatives that's not a positive trend especially given we're in an (economic) environment now that isn't exactly overflowing with good news," Donolo told CTV.ca.
The latest results (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Liberals: 34 per cent (+8)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (-6)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same)
Green Party: 9 per cent (+2)
"Economic downturns make very uncomfortable backdrops for the party in office," Donolo said. "It's natural that (the Conservatives) should be getting a bumpy ride."
The Liberals' voter support has grown a full 10 percentage points since Ignatieff took over the party from the unpopular Stephane Dion in December.
The Grits had dropped to 24 per cent support in early December, after Dion's coalition with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois led to a parliamentary crisis.
The Conservatives continue to poll poorly in Quebec, which analysts blame on two decisions made by Prime Minister Stephen Harper last year.
In August, Harper said he would cut $45 million in government funding for the arts, citing a lack of caring about the arts among "ordinary people."
This comment proved devastating for Conservative hopes in Quebec in the October federal election.
Harper exacerbated his Quebec problem when his party aggressively slammed the Bloc Quebecois after the election in an effort to turn Canadians off Dion's coalition.
"Mr. Harper had no honeymoon after his election," Donolo said. "Looking at these numbers it's hard to imagine his government was elected with strength only six months ago."
The poll asked 1,000 Canadians what party they would vote for if a federal election were "held tomorrow."
Across the country
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois remains well out front, but the Liberals are gaining (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (+3)
Liberals: 29 per cent (+5)
Conservatives: 15 per cent (-7)
NDP: 9 per cent (-3)
Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)
In Ontario, where the economic downturn has hit the hardest, the poll shows support swinging to the Liberals. But Donolo says that one shouldn't read too much into the numbers until a few more months pass.
Donolo said one factor that may hurt the Tories, based on other polling, is that the economy is considered a more important factor in voter preference, than in other regions (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Liberals: 45 per cent (+11)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (-7)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Green Party: 9 per cent (same)
In Western Canada, the Liberals continue their improvement under Ignatieff, but still remain far behind the Tories (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Conservatives: 46 per cent (-7)
Liberals: 24 per cent (+8)
NDP: 19 per cent (-3)
Greens: 11 per cent (+2)
Technical notes
The Strategic Counsel presents the findings of a national telephone omni survey of 1,000 Canadians
Results are based on a random sample of 1,000 adults comprising 500 males and 500 females 18 years of age and older, living in Canada.
Interviews were conducted between April 2 and April 5, 2009
Regional and Demographic Breakdowns
Sample size and margin of error:
Canada: 1000 - 3.1 per cent
Quebec: 243 - 6.2 per cent
Rest of Canada: 757 - 3.6 per cent
Ontario: 383 - 6.2 per cent
West: 300 - 5.1 per cent
Note: proportions may not sum to 100% due to rounding
The results are not at all promising for the Conservatives and even less so for the NDP. Personally I fail to see any positive reason for the Liberal support going up. Ignatieff is simply profiting from the bad economy and Harper's lacklustre performance. The NDP rarely gets any coverage.
Poll says Conservatives, Liberals in virtual tie
Updated Tue. Apr. 7 2009 11:01 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
The federal Liberals have the Conservatives locked in a virtual tie for voter support across Canada, a new poll suggests.
The latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted between April 2 and April 5 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, has the Grits ahead of the governing party by two percentage points, which is within the poll's margin of error.
Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel says the Conservatives should be concerned about the trend line, which firmly shows their support dropping and the Liberals' support growing since January.
"Those are very clear lines and for the Conservatives that's not a positive trend especially given we're in an (economic) environment now that isn't exactly overflowing with good news," Donolo told CTV.ca.
The latest results (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Liberals: 34 per cent (+8)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (-6)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same)
Green Party: 9 per cent (+2)
"Economic downturns make very uncomfortable backdrops for the party in office," Donolo said. "It's natural that (the Conservatives) should be getting a bumpy ride."
The Liberals' voter support has grown a full 10 percentage points since Ignatieff took over the party from the unpopular Stephane Dion in December.
The Grits had dropped to 24 per cent support in early December, after Dion's coalition with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois led to a parliamentary crisis.
The Conservatives continue to poll poorly in Quebec, which analysts blame on two decisions made by Prime Minister Stephen Harper last year.
In August, Harper said he would cut $45 million in government funding for the arts, citing a lack of caring about the arts among "ordinary people."
This comment proved devastating for Conservative hopes in Quebec in the October federal election.
Harper exacerbated his Quebec problem when his party aggressively slammed the Bloc Quebecois after the election in an effort to turn Canadians off Dion's coalition.
"Mr. Harper had no honeymoon after his election," Donolo said. "Looking at these numbers it's hard to imagine his government was elected with strength only six months ago."
The poll asked 1,000 Canadians what party they would vote for if a federal election were "held tomorrow."
Across the country
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois remains well out front, but the Liberals are gaining (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (+3)
Liberals: 29 per cent (+5)
Conservatives: 15 per cent (-7)
NDP: 9 per cent (-3)
Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)
In Ontario, where the economic downturn has hit the hardest, the poll shows support swinging to the Liberals. But Donolo says that one shouldn't read too much into the numbers until a few more months pass.
Donolo said one factor that may hurt the Tories, based on other polling, is that the economy is considered a more important factor in voter preference, than in other regions (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Liberals: 45 per cent (+11)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (-7)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Green Party: 9 per cent (same)
In Western Canada, the Liberals continue their improvement under Ignatieff, but still remain far behind the Tories (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):
Conservatives: 46 per cent (-7)
Liberals: 24 per cent (+8)
NDP: 19 per cent (-3)
Greens: 11 per cent (+2)
Technical notes
The Strategic Counsel presents the findings of a national telephone omni survey of 1,000 Canadians
Results are based on a random sample of 1,000 adults comprising 500 males and 500 females 18 years of age and older, living in Canada.
Interviews were conducted between April 2 and April 5, 2009
Regional and Demographic Breakdowns
Sample size and margin of error:
Canada: 1000 - 3.1 per cent
Quebec: 243 - 6.2 per cent
Rest of Canada: 757 - 3.6 per cent
Ontario: 383 - 6.2 per cent
West: 300 - 5.1 per cent
Note: proportions may not sum to 100% due to rounding
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Conservatives widen opinion poll lead
As the article points out the lead is still not at the level that would produce a Conservative majority. However, the Liberals may find the poll discouraging enough that they will continue to sit on their hands. The Conservatives are getting more and aggressive in trying to control events as antics at the Ethics Committee hearing have shown. Harper may just force an election eventually. If the Liberals had any gumption they would defeat the Conservatives first chance they get but I expect that they will just sit back on their hands and hope that Harper makes some huge mistake that will send Conservative support plummeting.
Conservatives widen opinion poll lead
Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:25am EDT
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Conservatives widened their lead over the Liberals in a new opinion poll released on Tuesday, but the party does not have enough support to win a majority government.
The Ipsos Reid poll of 1,007 Canadian voters showed the Conservatives with the support of 36 percent of the electorate, up from 34 percent in an August 1 survey. Support for the Liberals was unchanged at 30 percent.
But results of the survey will give little comfort to either party ahead of special elections in four Parliamentary districts next month that are widely viewed as a key test of public support.
Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, parties usually need at least 40 percent support to win a majority government.
The Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament, and the Liberals have been keeping them in power, mostly by abstaining on key legislation.
Speculation has been rising about a fall 2008 election, roughly one year ahead of schedule. The government complains that Parliament is no longer able to function productively, and the opposition appears increasingly willing to try to force the government out.
"Canadians appear to be warming to the idea of a election," the pollsters said in a statement.
"While in the spring only 27 percent of Canadians wanted an election, currently four in 10 are of the opinion that 'we really need an election to clear the air'."
The survey showed support for the New Democratic Party was unchanged at 14 percent, while the Green party polled 10 percent, down from 11 percent.
The Greens have no seats in the Canadian Parliament.
Ipsos Reid considers its survey accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by Janet Guttsman; Editing by Scott Anderson)
© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
Conservatives widen opinion poll lead
Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:25am EDT
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Conservatives widened their lead over the Liberals in a new opinion poll released on Tuesday, but the party does not have enough support to win a majority government.
The Ipsos Reid poll of 1,007 Canadian voters showed the Conservatives with the support of 36 percent of the electorate, up from 34 percent in an August 1 survey. Support for the Liberals was unchanged at 30 percent.
But results of the survey will give little comfort to either party ahead of special elections in four Parliamentary districts next month that are widely viewed as a key test of public support.
Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, parties usually need at least 40 percent support to win a majority government.
The Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament, and the Liberals have been keeping them in power, mostly by abstaining on key legislation.
Speculation has been rising about a fall 2008 election, roughly one year ahead of schedule. The government complains that Parliament is no longer able to function productively, and the opposition appears increasingly willing to try to force the government out.
"Canadians appear to be warming to the idea of a election," the pollsters said in a statement.
"While in the spring only 27 percent of Canadians wanted an election, currently four in 10 are of the opinion that 'we really need an election to clear the air'."
The survey showed support for the New Democratic Party was unchanged at 14 percent, while the Green party polled 10 percent, down from 11 percent.
The Greens have no seats in the Canadian Parliament.
Ipsos Reid considers its survey accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by Janet Guttsman; Editing by Scott Anderson)
© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Conservatives have strong lead in poll
The poll results are not surprising given the performance of the Liberals. The Liberals of course will point to the polls and pat themselves on the back for being so responsible for not precipitating an election. I think that the Liberals will swallow anything from now until Spring so the Conservatives needn't worry. If the Liberals should actually decide they still have a principle or two then the Conservatives can blame them for the election. The next step is to sock it to those who are soft on terrorism now that they have established that the Liberals are not willing to confront the Conservatives on crime policy. The Liberals may make some noises on anti-terror legislation but to no avail. Liberal actions will speak louder than words. The right of a person to know and question the evidence against them will be sacrificed on the altar of national security. If the war on terrorism did not exist politicians would have to invent it.
Conservatives have strong lead in poll
Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:08 AM EDT
TORONTO (Reuters) - The federal Conservatives might have enough support to win a majority government, according to a poll released on Saturday, but the vast majority of Canadians do not want an election now.
The poll by Ipsos-Reid showed support for the Conservatives holding steady at 40 percent, the minimum level needed to have a chance of winning a majority of seats in Parliament.
Support for the opposition Liberals slipped to 27 percent from 28 percent.
The poll was conducted from October 16-18, including the period after the Conservatives promised a platform of measures that included tax cuts and a tough anti-crime bill in a policy document known as the Throne Speech.
The Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament and defeat of their platform would have led to a new election. But Liberal leader Stephane Dion said he would not bring the government down over the issue.
"It appears that Stephane Dion was correct when he declared that Canadians do not want an election at this time," Ipsos-Reid said of its poll, conducted for Global TV and CanWest newspapers.
Sixty-eight percent of Canadians said an election should not be held before the spring because the government still had work to do, the survey of 1,000 voters showed.
The poll showed support for the left-wing New Democratic Party slipping to 14 percent from 16 percent, but edging up for the Green Party to 8 percent from 7 percent.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois, which campaigns only in French-speaking Quebec, had support from 9 percent of voters, up from 8 percent.
Ipsos-Reid considers its poll accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Conservatives have strong lead in poll
Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:08 AM EDT
TORONTO (Reuters) - The federal Conservatives might have enough support to win a majority government, according to a poll released on Saturday, but the vast majority of Canadians do not want an election now.
The poll by Ipsos-Reid showed support for the Conservatives holding steady at 40 percent, the minimum level needed to have a chance of winning a majority of seats in Parliament.
Support for the opposition Liberals slipped to 27 percent from 28 percent.
The poll was conducted from October 16-18, including the period after the Conservatives promised a platform of measures that included tax cuts and a tough anti-crime bill in a policy document known as the Throne Speech.
The Conservatives have only a minority of seats in Parliament and defeat of their platform would have led to a new election. But Liberal leader Stephane Dion said he would not bring the government down over the issue.
"It appears that Stephane Dion was correct when he declared that Canadians do not want an election at this time," Ipsos-Reid said of its poll, conducted for Global TV and CanWest newspapers.
Sixty-eight percent of Canadians said an election should not be held before the spring because the government still had work to do, the survey of 1,000 voters showed.
The poll showed support for the left-wing New Democratic Party slipping to 14 percent from 16 percent, but edging up for the Green Party to 8 percent from 7 percent.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois, which campaigns only in French-speaking Quebec, had support from 9 percent of voters, up from 8 percent.
Ipsos-Reid considers its poll accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Conservatives at the 40 per cent solution!
This article is from this site.
It is not surprising that the polls are up for the Conservatives. The Liberals are nowhere it seems unless perhaps fighting in backrooms. Meanwhile Harper appears regularly making deals with Nova Scotia, announcing get tough on drugs stuff, even giving funds to VIA. He pretends to be an environmentalist leading the laggards on the environment and getting his buddies Bush and Howard on board a hot air balloon.
Conservatives' popularity rises: poll
Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:44 PM EDT
MONTREAL (Reuters) - Canada's Conservatives, ruling as a minority government, have surged in popularity to the point where they could win a parliamentary majority in the next election, according to a poll published on Friday.
The Ipsos-Reid poll for the CanWest News Service and Global National television network put the Conservatives at 40 percent of popular support, opening a 12-point lead over the opposition Liberals.
"These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years," Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, told CanWest.
The Conservatives were up 4 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll in August and were right on the "magic number" generally needed to form a majority government, he added.
"The potential is that if an election was held tomorrow, he (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) could form a majority," Bricker told CanWest.
In contrast, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, whose popularity within his own party has been questioned by other Liberals, is "a bit on the ropes and headed in the wrong direction," Bricker said.
At 28 percent, Liberal support fell 4 points from the August survey.
The left-leaning New Democratic Party dropped 1 point to 16 percent.
The Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party that fields candidates only in Quebec, was at 33 percent support in the French-speaking province of 7.5 million. The Conservatives were at 27 percent in Quebec and the Liberals trailed at 18 percent.
The poll results came as Harper turned up the heat on the opposition parties on Friday, saying he might force votes of confidence when lawmakers take up crime and other nonfinancial legislation.
If Harper fails to gain the support or at least the abstention of one of the three opposition parties in any matter of confidence, including an upcoming major policy speech in Parliament, his government could be brought down. That would force an early federal election.
The Conservative were elected in January 2006 and Harper has set October 2009 as the next election date if his government does not fail before then.
The nationwide poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, and was considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.
It is not surprising that the polls are up for the Conservatives. The Liberals are nowhere it seems unless perhaps fighting in backrooms. Meanwhile Harper appears regularly making deals with Nova Scotia, announcing get tough on drugs stuff, even giving funds to VIA. He pretends to be an environmentalist leading the laggards on the environment and getting his buddies Bush and Howard on board a hot air balloon.
Conservatives' popularity rises: poll
Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:44 PM EDT
MONTREAL (Reuters) - Canada's Conservatives, ruling as a minority government, have surged in popularity to the point where they could win a parliamentary majority in the next election, according to a poll published on Friday.
The Ipsos-Reid poll for the CanWest News Service and Global National television network put the Conservatives at 40 percent of popular support, opening a 12-point lead over the opposition Liberals.
"These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years," Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, told CanWest.
The Conservatives were up 4 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll in August and were right on the "magic number" generally needed to form a majority government, he added.
"The potential is that if an election was held tomorrow, he (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) could form a majority," Bricker told CanWest.
In contrast, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, whose popularity within his own party has been questioned by other Liberals, is "a bit on the ropes and headed in the wrong direction," Bricker said.
At 28 percent, Liberal support fell 4 points from the August survey.
The left-leaning New Democratic Party dropped 1 point to 16 percent.
The Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party that fields candidates only in Quebec, was at 33 percent support in the French-speaking province of 7.5 million. The Conservatives were at 27 percent in Quebec and the Liberals trailed at 18 percent.
The poll results came as Harper turned up the heat on the opposition parties on Friday, saying he might force votes of confidence when lawmakers take up crime and other nonfinancial legislation.
If Harper fails to gain the support or at least the abstention of one of the three opposition parties in any matter of confidence, including an upcoming major policy speech in Parliament, his government could be brought down. That would force an early federal election.
The Conservative were elected in January 2006 and Harper has set October 2009 as the next election date if his government does not fail before then.
The nationwide poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, and was considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Federal Liberals, Tories, virtually tied in polls
It would be interesting to know what the increased Conservative support in Quebec would mean in terms of seats. Perhaps next election the Green Party might be able to elect a few members given the increase in its support. However, the party always seems to have more support before elections, not during elections. If polls do not change substantially in favor of the Conservatives it would seem a minority govt. is all they could achieve.
Federal Liberals, Tories virtually tied in new poll
Sep 18, 2007 05:31 PM
John Ward
Canadian press
OTTAWA – Despite their byelection success in Quebec, the federal Conservatives aren't making much progress toward the level of support they need to give them their hoped-for majority.
A new Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found the Tories deadlocked with the Liberals in public support, with no signs of momentum. But the poll confirmed the Liberals' troubles in Quebec as voters were casting ballots in three ridings there.
Conservatives had 32 per cent support, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals. That spread is covered by the poll's margin of error, which is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll found the NDP had the support of 17 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Green party had 14 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.
Results from the last three weeks of polling suggested the Tories and Liberals were tied at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and the Bloc at eight per cent.
Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima, said the data indicate that the strong economy isn't benefiting Stephen Harper and his Conservatives. But Stéphane Dion and the Liberals aren't finding much traction either.
For the Tories "finding their way from the low 30s to the low 40s, necessary to their hopes of winning a majority, looks no easier now than it has for months, despite the travails of the Liberals under Mr. Dion.
"For the Liberal party, these numbers reveal an opportunity dropped, at least so far; if voters seem cool to the Conservatives, they are not warming to Mr. Dion."
The survey, conducted earlier this week through Monday's Quebec byelections, also suggested that the Bloc Quebecois had slumped to 22 per cent in Quebec, compared with 26 per cent for the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP were tied at 16 per cent in the province, just a point ahead of the Green party.
The survey results suggested the Liberals lost some ground in Ontario and Quebec recently, while gaining support in Atlantic Canada.
In Quebec, Anderson said, the Tories, NDP and the Greens have all made gains at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals.
"Among federalist voters, the Conservatives are becoming more competitive with the Liberals."
Overall, he said, the Greens seem to be the major beneficiary of voter coolness to the other parties. The Greens are competitive with the Liberals and Tories among voters age 18 to 24 and are giving the NDP a run among female voters.
The poll was part of Harris -Decima's weekly omnibus telephone survey, which interviews just over 1,000 people.
Federal Liberals, Tories virtually tied in new poll
Sep 18, 2007 05:31 PM
John Ward
Canadian press
OTTAWA – Despite their byelection success in Quebec, the federal Conservatives aren't making much progress toward the level of support they need to give them their hoped-for majority.
A new Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found the Tories deadlocked with the Liberals in public support, with no signs of momentum. But the poll confirmed the Liberals' troubles in Quebec as voters were casting ballots in three ridings there.
Conservatives had 32 per cent support, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals. That spread is covered by the poll's margin of error, which is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll found the NDP had the support of 17 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Green party had 14 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.
Results from the last three weeks of polling suggested the Tories and Liberals were tied at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and the Bloc at eight per cent.
Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima, said the data indicate that the strong economy isn't benefiting Stephen Harper and his Conservatives. But Stéphane Dion and the Liberals aren't finding much traction either.
For the Tories "finding their way from the low 30s to the low 40s, necessary to their hopes of winning a majority, looks no easier now than it has for months, despite the travails of the Liberals under Mr. Dion.
"For the Liberal party, these numbers reveal an opportunity dropped, at least so far; if voters seem cool to the Conservatives, they are not warming to Mr. Dion."
The survey, conducted earlier this week through Monday's Quebec byelections, also suggested that the Bloc Quebecois had slumped to 22 per cent in Quebec, compared with 26 per cent for the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP were tied at 16 per cent in the province, just a point ahead of the Green party.
The survey results suggested the Liberals lost some ground in Ontario and Quebec recently, while gaining support in Atlantic Canada.
In Quebec, Anderson said, the Tories, NDP and the Greens have all made gains at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals.
"Among federalist voters, the Conservatives are becoming more competitive with the Liberals."
Overall, he said, the Greens seem to be the major beneficiary of voter coolness to the other parties. The Greens are competitive with the Liberals and Tories among voters age 18 to 24 and are giving the NDP a run among female voters.
The poll was part of Harris -Decima's weekly omnibus telephone survey, which interviews just over 1,000 people.
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