NDP leads in polls with Conservatives trailing and Liberals third

The recent CBC poll tracker results show that the NDP continues to lead both in popular vote and in seats it is projected to win.

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The results from August 19 are from an average of a number of polls. The Conservatives have 29.2 per cent of the vote. This is down slightly from the last polls. The NDP were at 33.8, up 0.3 percent from last time. The Liberals were up 0.8 percent to 27.5 putting them close to the Conservatives. The separatist Bloc Quebecois was at 3.9 per cent a slight gain from earlier. The Green Party was at 4.7 percent down 1.1 percent.

The NDP would win the most seats, 132, but far from the 170 needed to form a majority government. The Conservatives would win 116 with the Liberals still quite a ways behind at 89. The Bloc Quebecois would win no seats and the Green Party just one. A regional breakdown is available at the poll tracker website.

We now have polls from Abacus Data and Angust Reid on Canadians' reaction to the Mike Duffy trial. Duffy a former Conservative Senator is facing numerous charges having to do with Senate expenses and other issues.

The polls show that almost one in four Canadians are following the trial closely. Only fifteen percent of those polled think that Harper acted properly in the Abacus poll, with a few more 20 percent in the Angus Reid poll. In the Reid poll over half, 56 percent, said the trial had made their opinion of Harper worse. While many of these voters had already decided they were going to vote Liberal or NDP, a significant number of soft Conservative supporters were negatively influenced by the trial. Soft Conservative voters are those considering voting for the party but not yet committed.

The Abacus Data poll found that a quarter of soft Conservative supporters now believe that Harper acted improperly and 20 percent said that the trial made them less likely to vote Conservative. One quarter of the group said they did not believer Harper's version of events in the Angus Reid poll, and another 42 per cent did not know whether they should believe him or not. Slightly less than a third said that the trial had caused them to have a worse opinion of Harper. The Harper view that the scandal is limited to the former PM's chief of staff Nigel Wright and Mike Duffy is rejected by 62 percent of those polled by Angus Reid. They thought more in the PMO were involved, that there was a deeper scandal. 23 percent of soft Conservatives also took this view. Further doubt was cast on Harper's version of events by Benjamin Perrin a former legal adviser to the PMO. Perrin said that he believed that Harper knew the full details of a plan to reimburse Duffy for his expenses and mislead the public about what was happening. It remains to be seen if the trial has any lasting effect over a long campaign with the election taking place on October 19.

If you are tired of all the mainstream parties in some constituencies you can vote for minor parties. As of August 18th there were 85 Libertarians running. The Christian Heritage Party is fielding 22 candidates. There are also 5 from the Pirate Party, 3 from the Rhinoceros, and one lonely Communist.

Poll: Conservatives still ahead of Liberals.

The Conservatives do not seem to be able to build toward a majority and the Liberals are going nowhere fast as well. You will now hear a constant refrain from the two major parties that Canadians do not want an election. If the Conservatives or Liberals had polls that would give them a majority their would be a different tune. Expect the Liberals to support the Conservatives unless they are sure one of the other parties will do so! At least the NDP seems to be increasing its vote a little. In BC the Liberals seem to be far behind!

This is the Vancouver Sun.

Harper Tories still lead Liberals: poll


BY MEAGAN FITZPATRICK, CANWEST NEWS SERVICEMARCH 20, 2010




The Conservatives have the support of 34 per cent of decided voters, down three percentage points from the last poll earlier this month, while the Liberals secured 28 per cent of voters, down one percentage point.
Photograph by: Chris Wattie, Reuters
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have lost some support but would still emerge victorious if a federal election were held today, according to a poll conducted for Canwest News Service and Global National.

The Conservatives have the support of 34 per cent of decided voters, down three percentage points from the last poll earlier this month, while the Liberals secured 28 per cent of voters, down one percentage point. The New Democratic Party was in third with 18 per cent of the vote; 10 per cent of Canadians would support the Green party.

The Ipsos Reid poll is the first to ask Canadians who they would vote for since MPs returned to Parliament Hill following their prorogation break and since the budget was delivered on March 4.

With these results, a majority government remained out of reach for the Conservatives and the Liberals and neither party appeared to have made significant progress in boosting its popularity.

....

The poll of 1,001 Canadians was conducted between March 16 and 18 and the results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In the battleground of Quebec, the Conservatives have a lot of catching up to do to close the gap with the Bloc Quebecois which has 35 per cent of the votes. The Liberals have 27 per cent followed by the Conservatives in third at 20 per cent. The NDP has 11 per cent and the Green party would garner eight per cent, according to the poll results.

"Their Quebec strategy from the last election that failed, continues not to get them anywhere," Bricker said of the Tories' poor performance in Quebec.

The Liberals still have a grip on voters in Ontario where they would get 36 per cent of the votes compared to 33 per cent for the Tories, 19 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Green party.

In British Columbia, however, the Liberals are far back in third place at 17 per cent, behind the Conservatives, at 43 per cent, and the NDP with 22 per cent. In fact, the Liberals were in a statistical tie with the Greens, who had 16 per cent support.

Support for the parties has been relatively stable since the last federal election and with these latest poll results, Bricker said it's unlikely any of them would want an election in the near future. None would be able to secure a majority government, if the current numbers hold through an election campaign, he added.

"Unless the Conservatives can find a way to make a big breakthrough in Ontario or Quebec or the Liberals can get a big lead in Ontario and then establish some beachheads in some other places, you just don't see it for anybody," Bricker said.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Buoyed by latest poll PM chides opposition

Given the direction of the polls we could very well see a poison pill soon from Harper. Of course it is quite possible that the NDP might take the pill and commit suicide. The first test may be the harmonised sales tax legislation that the NDP opposes. The Liberals are probably soldiering on voting against the Conservatives because they think this is quite safe. If the polls keep sliding we might find even more dissension in the Liberal party over Ignatieff's leadership. Maybe he should learn to play the piano and sing.



Buoyed by latest poll, PM chides opposition

October 06, 2009
Richard J. Brennan
OTTAWA –Prime Minister Stephen Harper says now that his Conservative Party's popularity has jumped significantly the opposition parties aren't quite so bullish on an election.
"I think one good thing about these polls ... is that it's starting to force some of the other parties to focus on something other than trying to force an election," Harper said in an interview today on CFRB Talk 1010 in Toronto.
A CTV poll released Monday shows the Conservatives flirting with majority government territory with 41 per cent support, Liberals, 28 per cent, the NDP at 14 and the Green and Bloc Quebecois at 9.
Even though the Liberals' non-confidence motion was defeated last Thursday, the Grits say they will continue to take every opportunity to force an election, which Harper says Canadians have clearly said they don't want.
On the economy, Harper said Canada's economic recovery is a fragile one.
"I think there is a very mild recovery, it's a very fragile recovery. We are certainly not out of the woods," he said.
Harper said he doesn't see the recovery kicking in earnest until Canada's unemployment levels - now pegged at 8.6 per cent - drop significantly.
Even though Canada is struggling under a $56-billion deficit, Harper defended the shortfall.
"The fact of the matter is, while the deficit is large, Canada's deficit is relatively quite small. Our debt levels are very low," he said, adding his government must show the "discipline" to end the economic stimulus spending at the end of the recession.
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Harper even has meta-polls.

That is all we need a poll on polls. Even if the Conservatives do keep their promise to spend 10 million less a year on polls they will still spend several million more than the Liberal average.


Harper government polls Canadians about polls
Published: Friday, March 14, 2008 | 7:05 PM ET
Canadian Press: THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA - The federal government has conducted an opinion survey to find out what Canadians think of, uh, opinion surveys.

Release of the polling data comes amid pressure on Ottawa to rein in spending on public opinion research.

The poll, Canadians' Preferences in Answering Surveys, was completed Jan. 31 by Ekos Research Associates for Public Works and Government Services.

The survey of more than 2,250 Canadians last fall found 45 per cent of respondents preferred telephone surveys over Internet or in-person questionnaires.

A Public Works spokeswoman could not immediately say how much the survey cost or why it was undertaken.

A summary of the results suggest the questions were asked as part of a long-running series of polls on information technology.



The Tories are promising to spend $10 million less on government polling in the next budget year.

In December, an independent investigator reported the Conservatives spent $31.2 million on public-opinion research in the 12 months leading up to a government-commissioned probe.

That's almost twice the $18 million a year the Liberals averaged on polling between 1993 and 2006.