This lead will probably not hold up after the recent problems in the Conservative cabinet. That the NDP dropped three points seems rather anomalous. Perhaps this poll is a bit anomalous. It will be interesting to see what the next polls show. At least the lead is not enough to give Harper a majority so he is not likely to try to provoke an election. Ignatieff will do the same as Dion and support the Conservatives but without the Green Shift! This is from MacLeans.
Tories build up double-digit lead
New poll suggests a snap election would return nearly identical Parliament
The federal Conservatives have built up a 10-point lead over their Liberal party challengers thanks in part to a 3-point jump in the last month alone. The latest survey by Ipsos Reid Public Affairs has the Conservatives in a comfortable lead at 37 per cent to the Liberals’ 27 per cent. While the Liberals lost one point since March, the NDP dropped three to land at 15 per cent support. The Greens and the Bloc were tied for fourth at 10 per cent. The results are largely identical to those of the last election, says Ipsos president and CEO Darrell Bricker, “and we already know the results of that.”