Experts: Less Crime could hurt "law and order" Tories at the polls.

Has anyone made a study to see if there is any correlation between level of crime and fear of crime? It strikes me as quite possible that the level of crime could actually decline to a degree while the level of fear might actually increase. The media often concentrates for some time on any sensational grisly crimes and this may cause people to fear crime though the rates may be declining. Large cities like Toronto or Vancouver regularly report sensational violent crimes but Regina with a higher crime rate hardly ever makes the national news. I would expect that most people associate Toronto and Vancouver with violent crime rather than Regina! See this article.
Harper claims that emotion (created by media and Conservative fear mongers) is a more reliable barometer than statistics. Translated this means that what is more important is the poll statistics that show that fear mongering about crime gets votes and not the statistics about crime rates. When the statistics about crime rates such as those about increasing violent youth crime support the Conservative plans they will be used as evidence. When they don't they will be rejected and those who cite them as supporting criminals. This is from Canadian Press.



Less crime could hurt 'law-and-order' Tories at the polls, experts say
2 days ago
OTTAWA — Canada's national crime rate fell in 2007 for the third straight year, with declines in everything from homicides and gun crimes to minor property offences, says a new report.
And some say numbers released Thursday by Statistics Canada could strip some political ammunition away from the Conservative government, which has styled itself as the party that's toughest on crime.
"If crime rates continue to come down, then eventually the level of fear will not rise, but it might actually taper off or stabilize, in which case the usefulness of it as a ballot question for the Conservatives will weaken over time," said Bruce Anderson, president of polling firm Harris-Decima.
Statistics Canada says the seven per cent drop in the national crime rate was led by falling counterfeiting offences and theft under $5,000, including fewer break-ins and stolen cars.
Robbery committed with a firearm declined 12 per cent from the previous year, hitting its lowest point in three decades.
The numbers fly in the face of popular media and political messaging, which portrays crime across Canada as rising in both volume and ferocity.
Statistics Canada reports there were fewer serious violent offences such as homicides, attempted murders, sexual assaults and robberies last year. Police reported 594 murders, down slightly from 606 in 2006, following a long-term downward trend that began in the mid-1970s.
Serious assaults, including those with a weapon, basically stayed unchanged in 2007 after rising in each of the previous seven years.
The overall crime rate among youth aged 12 to 17 tapered off slightly in 2007 after rising the year before, as non-violent offences fell and violent crime remained stable.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has dismissed empirical evidence that crime rates are actually falling, suggesting that emotion is a more telling barometer. Harper has cast those who point to statistics to oppose elements of the Tory law-and-order agenda as apologists for criminals.
"(They) try to pacify Canadians with statistics," he told party supporters in January.
"Your personal experiences are impressions are wrong, they say; crime is really not a problem. These apologists remind me of the scene from the Wizard of Oz when the wizard says, 'Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."'
That assertion was echoed Thursday by Justice Minister Rob Nicholson.
"We are not governing by statistics. We are governing by what we promised Canadians in the last election and what Canadians have told us," he said in an interview.
A keystone of the Tories' fall agenda is expected to be tackling violent youth crime, one trouble spot in the Canadian record. It has been increasing steadily over the last two decades, said Statistics Canada, and the rate in 2007 was "more than double that reported in the mid-1980s."
Last week, Harper reiterated his party's pledge to deal with the "escalating problem of violent youth crime" when Parliament resumes in the fall.
"We must send a message - and we will - that we hold young lawbreakers responsible for their behaviour. That is what we intend to do this coming session," he told party faithful at the Calgary Stampede.
The Statistics Canada figures may not tell the whole story. Irvin Waller, director of the Institute for Prevention of Crime at the University of Ottawa, says fewer people are reporting crimes to police because they are disillusioned with the justice system.
Waller says that makes crime data based on police reports less reliable than Statistics Canada's periodic victimization surveys, which he claims give a more complete view of crime in Canada.
Crime rates were down in all provinces and territories, except Newfoundland and Labrador, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon. Overall crime rates remained highest in the western provinces.
Saskatchewan's crime rate fell 3.5 per cent but still was the highest in the country, including the highest rate of violent crime. Manitoba's 62 homicides last year were up 23 from 2006, giving it the highest provincial homicide rate and Manitoba's highest murder rate since recording began in 1961.
"For the fourth year in a row, the lowest provincial (crime) rate occurred in Ontario and Quebec," said the agency.
Statistics Canada did not speculate on the causes of Canada's overall decline in crime rates but criminologists and demographers believe an aging population is a significant factor.
"The people who are the most afraid of crime fall into two categories: women, generally, and older people, both men and women," Waller said.
"So, as the population ages, it feels more vulnerable