Call off the election, Stelmach: Political Expert

As the final parts of this article show, even though a lot of Stelmachian programs may not be popular the populace still is 2 to 1 for Stelmach over the Liberal leader. Maybe the conservative masses of Alberta will hold their noses and vote Conservative in spite of the enticing odor of the Wild Roses or whatever they call themselves now.

Call off the election,Stelmach

Don Braid
Calgary Herald
Friday, January 25, 2008
University of Calgary political expert David Taras has some free advice for the Stelmach government: "Call off the election."
The findings in a Herald poll are so dreadful the Conservatives risk disaster, according to Taras.
"This government only has 32 per cent. These are terrible numbers. Just awful."
"So at a certain point, as you're heading toward the cliff, you need to ask yourself (if) you really want to jump."
It will be fascinating to see if Premier Ed Stelmach's brain trust, easily spooked at any time, is rethinking the plan for an election call in February.
The second phase of the Leger Marketing poll, which asked how the government is performing in 12 separate policy areas, is even more devastating than Thursday's general popularity results.
A jolting conclusion emerges -- most Albertans reject nearly everything Stelmach is doing.
The Tories had 48 main chances to post favourable reactions. (Results in each category were calculated for Calgary, Edmonton, rural Alberta and the province at large.)
They got three positive responses. Yes, three out of 48.
In rural Alberta, most people liked Tory performance on taxes, royalties, and open and honest government, but turned thumbs down on nine other areas of performance.
The polls were negative for all 12 areas in Calgary, Edmonton, and the province at large.
Worse, the responses were very hostile on the issues Albertans believe are most important: health care and affordable housing. The health-care results are a disaster.
Sixty per cent of Albertans think the government does badly; only 27.5 per cent approve Tory performance.
In Calgary, 70 per cent think the government is messing it up, while only 19 per cent like the Tory record.
On affordable housing, the disapproval is equally thunderous, ranging from 66.9 per cent in Calgary to 58.3 per cent in rural areas.
Those two issues are considered more crucial than all the others, including crime, environment, the labour shortage and even royalties.
After all the uproar, royalties are now far down the list of Albertans worries; only 3.4 per cent consider the issue most important. Nonetheless, royalties have become a negative for the government.
Forty-four per cent of Albertans disapprove of Tory performance, while 40 per cent approve. Calgarians are solidly opposed and Edmontonians disapprove marginally.
The royalty regime is a winner only in rural Alberta, by a margin of 45 per cent to 39.4 per cent. The best the Tories can say about the royalty turmoil is it's the least unpopular thing they've done.
Overall, the poll shows that the government's weak general approval rating, 32.4 per cent, floats on a string of negative ratings for every single policy. That's a leaky life-raft to paddle into an election.
The only factor that will propel a government this seasick to the polls is the lack of a surging opponent.
The Tories don't face one. For all Stelmach's problems, he's still the 2-1 favourite for premier over Liberal Leader Kevin Taft.
With or without an election, though, it's obvious that the way Stelmach governs, by attacking one problem after another with panels, studies, secretariats and money, fails to inspire most Albertans.
In the weird way of Alberta politics, this doesn't mean the Tories will lose. Voters have a record of giving their governing parties second chances.
But if Stelmach does limp back into office, he'll have to reinvent almost everything.
dbraid@shaw.ca