Support for withdrawal from Afghanistan declines, but divisions remain.

This is from Canada.com. In spite of the headline the report has not caused any change in the numbers in favor or opposed to the mission as the article also notes. The poll questions themselves are a bit weird and almost bound to skew the answers in favor of the report. There are three grades of "goodness" that you can choose from but only one grade of "badness". Perhaps "fair" is meant to be a negative grading but it connotes to me passing but not by much.

Sunday » January 27 » 2008

Support for withdrawal from Afghanistan declines, but divisions remain

Juliet O'Neill
Canwest News Service
Saturday, January 26, 2008
OTTAWA -- The portion of Canadians who want Canadian troops to withdraw from Afghanistan has dropped seven points to 37 per cent in the aftermath of John Manley's report recommending a conditional extension of the military mission in Kandahar, says an Ipsos Reid poll released Friday.
The portion willing to extend the mission if the role shifts from combat to non-combat, such as training Afghan soldiers or police officers, has risen five points to 45 per cent since October.
The poll for Canwest News Service and Global National, conducted as Canadians digested the Manley recommendations earlier this week, suggests Canadians are open to an extension of a mission for non-combat purposes, said pollster John Wright. The 14 per cent of Canadians willing to extend the mission as is remained unchanged.
The pollsters found the majority of Canadians regard the Manley panel recommendations as fair (36 per cent) or good (29 per cent) or great (six per cent). Nearly a quarter (22 per cent) said Manley's proposals are a "bad plan" while seven per cent had no opinion.
Manley recommended an extension of the deployment of the 2,500 troops in Kandahar only if it is bolstered by 1,000 extra soldiers from another NATO country and the troops are equipped with medium-lift helicopters and unmanned aerial surveillance vehicles. He proposed a "significant reduction" in combat work in favour of training Afghan forces to handle their own security.
Ipsos Reid reported that Canadians received the Manley report "cautiously," given that regardless of the panel's recommendations, the country remains split - 50 per cent in support and 46 opposed - to the current counter-insurgency mission in Afghanistan. Those numbers were virtually the same in August.
"This is a report that has not fundamentally altered the underlying support of Canadians for their current positions," Wright, vice-president of Ipsos Reid, said Friday in an interview. "They've basically maintained the same thing for the last couple of years. But what it's done is opened the door to us staying there in another capacity."
The fundamental questions to most Canadians are whether to pull the troops and whether to change their combat role, Wright said.
"Only 14 per cent believe we should be doing the combat mission as we currently are," he noted, "but when you add them to the people who say we should stay and maybe do something different, then you have a full majority of the people in this country believing that to be the case."
The Manley report has not been enthusiastically embraced by the public, he said. People seem to be waiting for further details on what the government plans to do.
"It's not hard against, it's not hard for," he said. "There's no mandate given here for anything except discussion about more details as to what they may do."
The future of the mission, a question which could trigger the defeat of the government and an election this year, has divided Parliament. While the government appointed the Manley panel to find a non-partisan path to political consensus, the New Democratic Party and Bloc Quebecois continue to advocate troop withdrawal and the Liberals want a shift from combat to civilian protection, training Afghan forces and reconstruction of the country.
Ipsos Reid canvassed 1,001 adults by telephone over three days, starting Tuesday, the day Manley delivered his report. The results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Support for the Manley plan was highest in Atlantic Canada. Albertans were most likely to support troops remaining but shifting to a less combative role. Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec residents showed highest support for troop withdrawal.
Residents of Atlantic Canada were the most likely (47 per cent) to say the Manley plan is good or great, followed by those in Ontario (39 per cent), British Columbia (37 per cent), Alberta (32 per cent), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (31 per cent) and Quebec (27 per cent). Residents of Ontario (26 per cent) and Quebec (22 per cent) were most likely to say that this is a bad plan for Canadian troops.
Fifty-three per cent of Albertans were the most likely to say that Canada's troops should remain in Afghanistan but be redirected to a less combative role, followed by those in Atlantic Canada (49 per cent), Ontario (47 per cent), British Columbia (46 per cent), Quebec (42 per cent) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (35 per cent).
Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (42 per cent) and Quebec (41 per cent) were more likely than those living in B.C. (38 per cent), Atlantic Canada (36 per cent), Ontario (36 per cent ) and Alberta (25 per cent) to say that the troops should come home after February of next year.
A majority of residents of Alberta (61 per cent), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (59 per cent), Ontario (56 per cent), Atlantic Canada (54 per cent) and British Columbia (53 per cent) supported the current mission in Afghanistan. Quebec support (33 per cent) was lowest.
Albertans (18 per cent) were the most likely to want an extension to the current mission, followed by those in British Columbia (15 per cent), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15), Quebec (14), Ontario (13) and Atlantic Canada (nine).
Men (54 per cent) were significantly more likely than women (47 per cent) to support the mission in Afghanistan.
Ottawa Citizen
© CanWest News Service 2008

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