Showdown: Harper sets his election trap

The Liberals are going to consider "What's best for Canadians" in reacting to the throne speech. Emotively pleasing rhetorical garbage seems to be clogging the political landscape. Since the public is now showing much concern for the environment we should ask that politicians should at least limit their littering even though they think people don't mind it.
If this article is correct the Conservatives are not going to be so taunting to the Liberals as to force them to vote against the throne speech but taunting enough that they must swallow their principles and pride if they are to vote for it. As of now I would bet the Liberals will swallow their pride and principles without even gagging. Of course the Liberals are now promising to suck up to Bay St. even harder than the Conservatives by promising an even larger corporate tax cut than the Tories!
Vote for the NDP, Greens, Communists, Libertarians, Christian Heritage, anyone but the Libs or Tories..!

Showdown: Harper sets his election trap
TheStar.com - Canada - Showdown: Harper sets his election trap

October 14, 2007

CONSERVATIVES

Election ready and confident, Stephen Harper has thrown down the throne speech gauntlet


OTTAWA — Since his first Speech from the Throne 20 months ago, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has made a high art of treading thin political lines and carving off even thinner wedges of territory in which he can plant the Conservative party's flag.
He has courted ethnic votes across the country, ramped up support for the military, shifted focus on the environment and championed a get-tough approach to criminal justice. This is to say nothing of the many efforts Harper has made to win over Quebec voters.

His second throne speech, which will be delivered Tuesday evening, is expected to trumpet those causes as promises both made and kept, and to build on them in small but meaningful ways. Harper has promised a tax cut, a limit on Ottawa's ability to spend money in provincial jurisdictions, more crime bills and additional initiatives to protect the environment.

But the Prime Minister's framing of the debate that begins with the throne speech also promises to kick off a frantic period of political jousting in the capital. It will ensure that MPs are never more than a phone call away from Parliament Hill. They will be keeping their flashy election signs even closer.

In his search for a stronger hold on power, Harper has laid down an aggressive ultimatum to opposition parties that puts the trigger for an election in their hands, but ensures that he remains the one directing the firing squad.

His audacious threat to make every piece of legislation that stems from the speech subject to a confidence vote – meaning a defeated bill would spark an election – appears designed to force the hand of a Liberal party in disarray that is ill-prepared for an election. It comes from an election-ready government that, as of last week, was said to be writing the throne speech, campaign platform and debate preparation all at the same time.

The question, then, is how do the Tories hasten an election without calling it, and make sure that it happens on its own terms?

Conservative insiders expect a speech that is "pesky as opposed to pugilistic" for opposition parties, meaning that the Prime Minister will plant a few landmines in the document, but nothing that could be held against the Tories by voters still nervous about the party's direction in government.

The speech, for example, will reportedly state that Canada's targets under the Kyoto protocol are "unattainable" in an attempt to antagonize Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and the other parties who have repeatedly called on the government to meet its treaty obligations. "He can't do anything that is too far afield that it could be turned into a campaign anvil by the Liberals against the Conservatives," said one backroom Conservative, who suggested that Harper has more room to antagonize the opposition in areas like crime and the economy as opposed to the environment or health care.

"We are still vulnerable, I believe, on social issues because the default mechanism of Canadian conscience is to the Liberals or NDP."

Three senior cabinet ministers from Ontario – Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Health Minister Tony Clement and Environment Minister John Baird, who is also the political minister for the province – refused repeated requests to discuss how the government's new parliamentary agenda will address the needs of Canada's largest province.

Flaherty, through a spokesperson, sent a statement to the Star that said nothing of what Ontarians could expect other than to see the government "continue working together to build a strong Ontario in a strong Canada."

This, despite the fact that Harper himself laid out the major markers less than two weeks ago and ministers from other provinces, particularly Quebec, have made their own announcements related to upcoming initiatives:

The throne speech will contain "significant" tax cuts stemming from the recently announced $14-billion surplus and a number of measures to boost the economy. Those are expected to come in a mini-budget later this month or early in November.

The government will reintroduce most of the crime legislation left stalled in the last Parliament and introduce a few new ones. Justice Minister Rob Nicholson laid out plans to add tougher sentences and pre-trial detention measures to the Youth Criminal Justice Act. Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon said the speech would follow through on a long-standing promise to Quebecers to restrict Ottawa's ability to spend money on programs that encroach on exclusive provincial jurisdiction, in areas like education. The Liberals and NDP oppose this. The Bloc is demanding the "elimination" of these spending powers, a request Harper says he "will not be fully satisfying."

There will be a new commitment to address Arctic sovereignty, with a possible announcement in the weeks ahead about increased monitoring of the Northwest Passage. The popular sea route is seeing increased traffic and dispute about its status as an international waterway as global warming heats up the often ice-blocked route.

The Prime Minister will also dodge opposition demands for a declaration that Canadian troops will leave Afghanistan's violent Kandahar province after February 2009. He instead launched a five-member study group to look at the future of the mission late last week.

One government official said Harper's pledges around Arctic sovereignty and Afghanistan are "part of a bigger strategy of making people proud of their country again" – something that is emerging as a pre-election theme. Harper has ramped up this angle over the past months with the refrain that, under his rule, "Canada's back."

But it is just as likely that the government's throne speech gambit will lead Canada back to the polls.

The NDP and Bloc Quebecois are almost certain to vote against the government in a series of confidence votes starting this week. The Liberals are the most hesitant, and the party is reportedly considering having some of its MPs not show up for the votes so they can vote against the government without forcing a campaign. That sign of weakness is not lost on either the government or on other opposition parties as they try to stake out firm ground. "I call on Mr. Dion to make sure that his members are in their seats, and that they take their responsibilities to pass judgment on Stephen Harper and his government," said the NDP's Jack Layton.

"If Mr. Dion is not prepared to stand up and be the opposition to Mr. Harper and the direction that he's taking the country in, we are."

- Allan Woods





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LIBERALS

Stay on script - `what's best for Canadians' - and don't take the bait, insiders urge Stephane Dion

OTTAWA – On Parliament Hill, it often seems, everyone's a political strategist.

It's a tendency that becomes even more acute when there's a perceived crisis – the current one, of course, being the situation with the federal Liberals and leader Stéphane Dion.

Dion had his own problems with party disarray since last month's dismal Liberal showings in Quebec by-elections. Worse, in recent days, Prime Minister Stephen Harper handed the Liberals even more reasons to get in strategic knots.

Harper has presented Tuesday's throne speech as a time-elapse threat to Dion's leadership, daring him to accept the whole thing, and all the legislation that flows from it, or topple the government and plunge Canada into a fall election.

Then, late this week, just to make things even more troublesome, Harper appointed a former Liberal deputy prime minister, John Manley, to advise on Afghanistan policy – one of the more powerful issues the Liberals had in their lineup of Conservative vulnerabilities.

Stroke by stroke, Harper seems to be painting Dion into a corner, where he has to choose between an unwanted election or humiliating capitulation to a Conservative minority that is trying to govern as though it had a majority.

Suddenly, all the chatter in Ottawa now is on Dion's strategy. What will he do? More importantly, what should he do?

The irony, for those familiar with Dion, is that advice-taking is reportedly not the Liberal leader's strong suit. But it's said that he is listening now, especially to those who say he has to resist any temptation to provoke a fall election. Apart from a few pro-election hawks, most Liberals are saying they need more time to get the party's act together.

This is why you will be hearing virtually the same words from Liberals in the days leading up to Tuesday's throne speech. They have come up with the "script" and it sounds like this:

"We will take into account all the aspects of the throne speech with only one thing in mind – the interests of Canadians," Dion told reporters in Toronto on Friday.

"We have to decide what's in the national interest," Deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff said in a recent interview with CTV.

The subtext here is simple to decode: Canadians don't want an election; Liberals will pay attention to that interest and decide accordingly. In other words, they will say that Harper is concerned about his own fortunes while Liberals are concerned about Canadians.

Additional consensus is also emerging around how Dion should handle these Harper dares, simply in terms of style and "messaging."

Liberals should not be drawn into playing this season's politics on Harper's terms, say the experienced hands behind the scenes. If the Liberals can shift the debate away from strategy and on to policy – or even better, to values – they believe the government is on shakier ground.

"The Harper Conservatives are out of step with Canadians on Afghanistan, climate change and the need for an able national government. And they have no economic policy whatsoever at a time when the rising dollar is forcing a massive structural adjustment," says Scott Reid, who served as communications director to former prime minister Paul Martin.

"These are the issues that matter to Canadians – not parliamentary poker games."

Reid says here's what he'd like to tell Dion: "Make a decision on the vote now, announce it early and take your inevitable lumps with a press gallery that is corn-fed on political strategy. Then start putting the government on the defensive about its policies, not Liberal party politics. The government should be on trial, not the opposition."

Peter Donolo, former communications director to prime minister Jean Chrétien, says Dion has to concentrate on his strengths and not let Harper frame next week's politics around the Liberals' perceived weaknesses.

Dion has integrity and authenticity on his side, says Donolo, who agrees Liberals have to keep Canadians' eyes focused on policy differences with the Conservatives. In fact, he's quite upbeat about Dion's chances if he can do his own "framing" of the issues and put Conservatives' ideas under scrutiny.

"It means becoming the default party of those who would never think of voting for Harper and those who would worry about handing Harper a majority. That's pretty well close to half the electorate right now," he says.

Dion also should be doing as Chrétien did when his fortunes were flagging before the 1993 election, Donolo says – widen the emphasis to the Liberal "team."

To some extent, that has already started to happen, with Canadians seeing Ignatieff and other former Liberal leadership contenders coming out before the cameras to serve as the face of the party.

The appointment of Bob Rae as foreign affairs critic is also part of this. Rae, a former premier and leadership contender now seen almost as a statesman, is an asset the party needs to be putting in the front window, most Liberals agree.

"He's got this dream-team thing going for him and it's still there," Donolo says, noting that it reminds the public of the way Harper is a one-man government, keeping ministers and MPs under wraps.

"The contrast to the other guy (Harper) will be very positive."

The emphasis on the team approach also quells some of the restive rumours about lingering in-fighting between the Dion camp and the old Rae and Ignatieff leadership teams. Serious people in the party – especially Rae and Ignatieff personally – have made it abundantly clear that there's no time or appetite for this mischief right now.

Less obvious to politics-watchers will be the strategic changes underway behind the scenes – structural and operational discipline, mainly, overseen by the new principal secretary, Johanne Senecal, a respected, long-time aide to Dion and Chrétien.

Most Liberal insiders are coming to the belief that the party actually needed those Quebec by-election losses to shake the organization right down to the foundations.

Are things working better? The tests begin this week. What Liberals do seem to realize is that they can't do strategy from their armchairs any more. The potential is there for even bigger losses than the Quebec by-elections and that means, as the old saying goes, now's the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of an embattled party.

- Susan Delacourt