Polls show Liberals winning in Ontario

Different polls show rather different support but overall the Liberals are gaining and Conservatives losing. The MMP referendum looks to be clearly headed for defeat. It is unfortunate since it will be defeated because most people do not seem to be aware of its virtues. The media have made an attempt to provide the public with information but it seems to be lost in the election campaign noise.


Polls show Liberals winning


Suggest PCs not helped by reversal on schools

Oct 06, 2007 04:30 AM
Robert Benzie
Queen's Park Bureau Chief

LONDON, Ont.–Premier Dalton McGuinty's Liberals are cruising to another majority government next Wednesday thanks to Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's pledge to fund religious schools, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos-Reid survey, conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News, suggests Tory's reversal on the controversial schools policy has not helped him.

In the first major poll since Monday's flip-flop, the Liberals are at 43 per cent, the Tories at 32 per cent, Howard Hampton's New Democrats at 18 per cent, and Frank de Jong's Greens at 6 per cent.

There are just 4 per cent undecided voters, an unusually low number with the election still four days away. The survey of 800 people conducted between Tuesday and Thursday is considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Another poll released yesterday by Angus Reid Strategies found the Liberals at 40 per cent of decided voters, the Conservatives at 34 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent and the Greens at 7 per cent. That poll found 10 per cent of voters undecided. It is considered accurate within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Angus Reid poll also found that among decided voters who had an opinion on the electoral reform referendum, 58 per cent will vote to keep the current system, while 42 per cent support reform.

On Monday, Tory, facing mutinous Conservative candidates, announced he would put his plan to spend $400 million to fund Jewish, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Hindu and other religious schools to a free vote in the Legislature if he is elected. That about-face effectively kills the chances of faith-based schools gaining the same public funding as those in the Catholic system, because many Conservative MPPs plan to join Liberals and New Democrats in voting against it.

The Ipsos-Reid survey suggests seven out of 10 Ontarians oppose the funding of faith-based schools, and 61 per cent saw Tory's shift as a cynical move while 39 per cent said he was being responsive to public concerns.

"Faith-based funding was a perfectly intercepted pass," Ipsos-Reid senior vice-president John Wright told the Toronto Star on Thursday before the poll was completed.

Despite the encouraging results, McGuinty said he wasn't leaving anything to chance.

"I'm just going to keep working as hard as I can, I'll do the best that I can and I'll keep talking about those things that are important to families," the Liberal premier said in Markham.

At a rowdy 250-person campaign rally in London, Tory wasn't fazed.

"The good news is there wasn't an election held on whatever days that (Ipsos-Reid) poll was taken. The election will be held next Wednesday," Tory said.

"I think we can win on that day," he said, predicting he will win his riding of Don Valley West against Education Minister Kathleen Wynne.

Hampton said in an interview in Toronto that support for both Liberals and Tories is weak.

"There are a whole lot of people out there who don't have any conviction whatsoever," he said, adding his party has momentum.

The Conservatives, who have been polling 500 Ontarians a night since Monday, insist they have seen a bounce and their numbers suggest McGuinty is still in minority government territory.

Their research also shows Tory trumps McGuinty on the question of leadership because voters still blame the premier for breaking campaign promises from the 2003 election.

With that in mind, the Conservatives last night launched an ad blitz with a new TV commercial attacking McGuinty and not even mentioning Tory by name.

"Do you really want four more years of mismanaged health care?" reads the ad.

PC sources say if the election is a referendum on McGuinty, then they have a better shot at keeping the Liberals to a minority.