Here are the latest projections from Democraticspace. The Conservatives are down a further three seats and the Liberals up three. NDP is the same at 12 and the Greens at 0. It looks as if Tory has his work cut out for him to catch up. Perhaps his free vote on faith based school funding will help him a little. On the other hand it may make him seem to vacillate and not help at all. Coming polls and predictions will show if Tory is able to stem the tide.
Update 25: Liberals Solidify Majority
Tuesday October 02nd 2007, 12:49 pm
Filed under: Canadian Politics
The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberals solidifying their position in majority territory. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are now projected at 63 seats (9 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 42.0%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 32 seats and 33.4% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 17.0% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 6.0% support and no seats, and all others at 1.7%. These numbers do not reflect the impact of John Tory’s decision to back off funding for religious schools (this will be picked up in the next round of polls).
Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the latest polls from Ipsos-Reid, SES, Environics, Harris-Decima (through 30 Sept); we anticipate a new Strategic Counsel poll shortly. Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 2,861 surveys conducted between 23 and 30 Sept and have a margin of error of +/- 1.83%.
LIBERAL 63 seats 42.0% support
PC 32 seats 33.4% support
NDP 12 seats 17.0% support
GREEN 0 seats 6.0% support
OTHERS 0 seats 1.7% support
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