Ontario seat projection: Oct. 5

Update 26: Liberal Lead Edges Up
Friday October 05th 2007, 10:47 am
Filed under: Canadian Politics, - 2007 ON Election

The Liberals are up one seat and the Conservatives down one from the last projection.
Unless there is a sudden shift it looks as if the Liberals will manage to get a majority. Oh well, the Tories will win Newfoundland and Labrador. The Liberals may not get any seats and the NDP probably just one or two! This is from Democraticspace.

The latest projections from DemocraticSPACE have the Liberals increasing their lead, solidifying their majority position. Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals are now projected at 64 seats (10 more than is needed for a majority) based on average support of 42.8%, John Tory’s Progressive Conservatives with 31 seats and 33.1% support, and Howard Hampton’s NDP with 12 seats and 16.9% support. Frank de Jong’s Green Party is projected at 5.5% support and no seats, and all others at 1.7%.

Projections are based on a weighted average of the last five polls conducted by leading pollsters, including the two latest polls from Harris-Decima and Ipsos-Reid. Poll data is calibrated regionally and adjusted for individual candidates, providing the most accurate predictive model available. Current projections are based on 3,305 surveys conducted between 25 Sept and 4 Oct and have a margin of error of +/- 1.70%.

LIBERAL 64 seats 42.8% support
PC 31 seats 33.1% support
NDP 12 seats 16.9% support
GREEN 0 seats 5.5% support
OTHERS 0 seats 1.7% support