Liberals get lift at expense of New Democrats?

The Democratic Space projections still do not show any change in seats for the New Democrats. The Liberals are up three in seats from the last projection and the Conservatives down the same. This poll does not look good for the New Democrats. It makes it look as if there is some strategic voting for Liberals, strategic voting when it is not necessary to prevent a Conservative majority. If anything NDPers should make sure they vote NDP so that they will have the balance of power.


The survey indicates the Liberals are getting a lift at the expense of the New Democrats.

By JAMES WALLACE, AND ANTONELLA ARTUSO, SUN MEDIA



TORONTO -- Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have crept back in striking distance of a majority government over the last week, a SES-Sun Media poll suggests.

The survey indicates the Liberals are getting a lift at the expense of the NDP, with women voters in particular moving to get behind the ruling Grits.

With only nine days left until the Ontario election, McGuinty, despite the baggage of his one-term government's broken promises, looks poised to win a second majority.

"We're at the point now where we would need a significant major error on the part of the Liberals for them to lose this," pollster Nik Nanos, president of SES Research, said yesterday.

"In the last election, they received 46 per cent of the vote and now they're at 44 per cent," he said.

"They're creeping into election territory that's very similar to the last election, which was a very big win for them."

The poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, indicates the Liberals have climbed three points to 44-per-cent support among decided voters -- just shy of the level that won them 72 seats in the 2003 election.

Support for John Tory's Conservatives remains flat, moving up a single point to 34 per cent from the last SES poll conducted just after the Sept. 20 televised leaders' debate.

Howard Hampton's New Democrats lost ground, falling to 15 per cent from 18 per cent.

But the most critical change during the past week has been among women voters, and it appears strategic voting by women will decide the outcome of the Oct. 10 election.

"New Democratic women are moving out of the NDP column and into the Liberal column, potentially to block John Tory," Nanos said.

The poll indicates Liberal support among women rose by 11 per cent over the past week and more than half of all women -- 53 per cent -- now say they intend to vote Liberal.

It appears much of that movement came at the expense of the NDP, which saw its support among women fall by 10 points to 13 per cent.

The erosion of the female vote to the Liberals is bad news for the NDP, suggesting the third party is unlikely to win ridings it had a shot to capture in tight, three-way races.

"Howard Hampton needed John Tory to do well, but all this focus on Tory has pushed New Democratic women to the Grits," Nanos said.

That's likely the result of Tory's negative ads and controversial proposal to extend government funding to private, faith-based religious schools, which has turned off voters in general and women in particular, he said.

Women in most households usually make most of the decisions about health care for their children, spouses and parents, and the same is true for education.

"It's the mothers and women who are making a lot of the education decisions for their kids," Nanos said.

"So, it's not surprising in a campaign that has really been focused on the future of the public school system and the potential for faith-based funding, that this directly impacts the voting intentions of women," he said.

Tory yesterday softened his faith-based school funding plan in what appears to be an attempt to get his derailed campaign back on track.

He has proposed to spend up to $400 million in public funds to bring private religious schools, including Jewish, Muslim and Christian faith-based schools, under the public umbrella on the condition they use Ontario-certified teachers and teach core subjects using Ontario's public school curriculum.

Tory yesterday backed away from plans to implement that policy and said if he becomes premier, he'll put the issue to a free vote in the legislature.

"The only upside to this for John Tory is he's shown some flexibility . . . ," Nanos said.

"The downside is that last week he closed the door to a free vote, and now he's opened the door to a free vote."

The poll revealed more grim news for Tory: His party's numbers have remained firm, but the party failed to gain any momentum during the past week and is even losing ground outside Toronto and surrounding suburban areas.

McGuinty, meanwhile, has gained in voter perceptions as the best choice for premier, climbing to 32 per cent from 29 per cent a week ago, basically changing places with Tory.