I am surprised that Brandon East is thought to be vulnerable. Since Len Evans won it ages ago it is has been a relatively safe seat and has continued in NDP hands even when the Conservatives have run much more prominent Tories than Waddell. Brandon West could be a close race. Both the incumbent and Borotsik are popular. I see that the Communists are running a candidate again. I predict she will not win!
I notice that the Conservatives in Manitoba are not the Conservative Party but the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba. I guess they want to keep the progressive tag or perhaps they do not want to be confused with the CP which before the new Conservative Party was the tag for the Communist Party of Canada!
Ridings to watch on election night
ellTue May 22 2007
The number of seats needed to claim a majority government is 29. And getting there for any party means getting through tough races in swing ridings which for most pundits are simply too tough to call.
For the most part the swing ridings are in Winnipeg's suburbs, and the leaders have spent a lot of time in them over the last 33 days.
When you're watching the results tonight, keep these ridings in mind as you try and figure out which party will get the nod to form government.
Brandon West
❚ Rick Borotsik PC
❚ Lisa Gallagher CPC
❚ x - Scott Smith NDP
❚ MJ Willard LIB
Why it's in play: It's a swing riding the NDP took from the Tories two elections ago, and one in which the NDP are never considered "safe."
Borotsik is running on a platform to give Brandon the same due as Winnipeg, with things like a casino and a private wine store. Smith is running on the NDP record in Brandon including its recent saving of the emergency room in light of a shortage of doctors.
Kirkfield Park
❚ Sharon Blady NDP
❚ Doug Kayler LIB
❚ Chris Kozier PC
Why it's in play: It used to be true Tory Blue but the NDP have slowly gained ground in this west Winnipeg riding. Without an incumbent, (former Tory Leader Stuart Murray resigned the seat last August), the NDP saw it as wide open. Premier Gary Doer visited Kirkfield Park six times during the campaign, staking it out from the start as one he really wants to win.
Radisson
❚ Murray Cliff LIB
❚ Bidhu Jha NDP
❚ Linda West PC
Why it's in play: Pigs, pigs and pigs. This is the riding that was to have been the home of the Olywest pig plant, and the stink from that plant made a real stink in this campaign. It was a nasty race with the candidates attacking each other right, left, and centre, and fighting to see who could put out more flyers. The NDP has long held Radisson but the Doer government's support for the pig plant, and late-hour announcement not to go forward with it, has made Jha vulnerable here.
Who's who
x-incumbent
PC - Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba
NDP - New Democratic Party
LIB - Liberal Party of Manitoba
GRN - Green Party of Manitoba
CPC - Communist Party of Canada - Manitoba
IND - Independent
Southdale
❚ x - Jack Reimer PC
❚ Erin Selby NDP
❚ Don Woodstock LIB
Why it's in play: Two words. Star candidate. Jack Reimer has been the MLA here since 1990 but it is the only riding in southeast Winnipeg the NDP didn't win in 2003, and the party put up the only bona-fide star candidate in this campaign to try and take it. Selby, the former Breakfast Television co-anchor, had seven visits from Doer in this race, more than any other NDP candidate, signaling it is clearly a contest. It got off to a rocky start when Reimer called Selby a "prop" and had to apologize, and Doer got into some trouble for promising an expanded rec centre, usurping city council's current rec centre process. But for a race this tight, the campaigns have been both respectful and professional.
Wellington
❚ Joe Chan IND
❚ Rhonda Gordon Powers LIB
❚ Flor Marcelino NDP
❚ x - Conrad Santos IND
❚ Jose Tomas PC
Why it's in play: It is the biggest mess of the 2007 election race, with backstabbing, spurious allegations and last-minute candidate conversions. Three of the candidates are really NDPers, though Conrad Santos and Joe Chan are running as independents because both dropped out of the NDP nomination for various reasons. Flor Marcelino got put in at the last minute after the original NDP nominee, Angie Ramos, dropped out, reportedly for health reasons. A three-way split of the NDP vote makes the party vulnerable in a seat that should have been a walk in the park for it to win.
Assiniboia
❚ Bernie Bellan LIB
❚ Kelly De Groot PC
❚ x - Jim Rondeau NDP
Why it's in play: It is considered a swing riding even though Rondeau had a considerable victory here in 2003. In 1999 he won by just three votes. Rondeau, the energizer bunny of the Doer cabinet, is facing a much tougher challenge this time from Kelly De Groot, who is recognizable in the riding because she ran for city council there last fall.
It is one of the ridings where the Tories hope to capitalize on the ER doctor shortage at the Grace Hospital, and the party held a rally there, with De Groot at the mike, on the weekend.
Bernie Bellan is in the race only to draw attention to the Crocus fund scandal.
La Verendrye
❚ Roland Chaput LIB
❚ x - Ron Lemieux NDP
❚ Jay Murray IND
❚ Bob Stefaniuk PC
Why it's in play: Lemieux has represented La Verendrye since 1999 and has a high profile as a cabinet minister since being elected. But with NDP support in rural Manitoba down, and the Tories running popular reeve Bob Stefaniuk who helped the area through the 1997 Flood of the Century, this riding is definitely one to keep a close eye on tonight. It is one of the three ridings the NDP feared losing the most.
St. Norbert
❚ Wendy Bloomfield LIB
❚ x - Marilyn Brick NDP
❚ Tara Brousseau PC
Why it's in play: It's not traditionally considered an NDP stronghold and Brick had an unexpected win in 2003 over former Tory house leader Marcel Laurendeau. It's a Tory target seat, and Brick does not have a very high profile in the Doer government, making her vulnerable. No fireworks from any party in this area but it has been visited by the Tory and NDP leaders frequently.
Inkster
❚ Roger Bennett PC
❚ x - Kevin Lamoureux LIB
❚ Romy Magsino NDP
Why it's in play: The Inkster riding has all the hallmarks of a marquee match with feisty Grit incumbent Kevin Lamoureux matching up against NDP ringer Romy Magsino.
It's a must win if the Grits have any hope of winning the four seats needed to gain official party status in the Legislature. Moreover, they simply can't afford to lose a veteran like Lamoureux from their team.
Many on the NDP side would like nothing better than to keep Lamoureux out of the legislature.
PC candidate Roger Bennett has been working hard knocking on doors but this figures to be a two-horse race.
The Maples
❚ Pritam Brar - Liberal
❚ Lou Fernandez - PC
❚ Mohinder Saran - NDP
Why it's in play: NDP incumbent Cris Aglugub is gone after failing to win the party's nomination in a messy affair leaving The Maples wide open.
The main outstanding issue remains allegations of NDP brass interfering in the nomination, and an investigation into that matter still not completed by Elections Manitoba.
It has been a quiet race though, and is a tough one to know how party affiliation and the votes of the Indo-Canadian and Filipino communities will filter out.
Fort Rouge
❚ Gerald Enns - Green
❚ Paul Hesse - LIB
❚ Jennifer Howard - NDP
❚ Frank Komarniski - CPC - MB
❚ Ron Nash - IND
❚ Christine Waddell - PC
Why it's in play:
Normally a safe NDP seat but former cabinet minister Tim Sale retired and the Liberals pumped a ton of resources into it and a quality, hard working candidate in Paul Hesse.
NDP Jennifer Howard is well known in political circles and like Hesse has launched an intense ground campaign, though word is it got off to a slow start. Brandon East
❚ Cheryl Burke LIB
❚ x - Drew Caldwell NDP
❚ Mike Waddell PC
Why it's in play: This wasn't originally on the list of ridings to watch but Waddell proved to be a formidable campaigner and Caldwell is said to be looking over his shoulder. With NDP support outside Winnipeg down, and the Liberals expected to have a better showing than they did in 2003, this riding should not be overlooked tonight.
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