Recent polls show that the NDP and Conservatives are in a dead heat at 40 percent of the vote. However the trend for Conservatives has been down. One earlier poll the Conservatives had 49 per cent. The Liberals are far behind but then they only held a couple of seats at dissolution. More detail is at: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/manitoba/
The distribution of the vote is even more important than the percentage. Rural areas are for the most part very strongly Conservative so unless they make a breaktrough in more city ridings the NDP could still win. Outside of Winnipeg and Brandon only the north elects NDP members usually although when the NDP is quite popular a few other seats such as those in the interlake area are won.