Thursday, February 19, 2009

Mexico shows effects of recession

The pattern in Mexico seems to follow that in Canada with the Mexican economy showing growth in 2010 with a decline this year. It would seem this years forecast will probably be revised downward.

UPDATE 1-Mexican economy shrinks faster; peso too weak -MEXICO CITY, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy is slowing faster than expected and will probably shrink by more than 0.3 percent this year as the U.S. recession slams Mexican exports, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.
'Recently released data on developments in late 2008 suggest the Mexican economy is slowing faster than we anticipated,' Vikram Haksar, the IMF's mission chief to Mexico, said in a statement.
The IMF forecast in January that Mexico's economy would contract 0.3 percent this year but Haksar said the IMF would likely provide a new forecast soon.
He said in a conference call from Washington the estimated contraction would be roughly 1 percentage point more than the IMF's current view if it factored in a recent Mexican government estimation of contraction in fourth-quarter 2008 growth.
An IMF report released on Friday also said Mexico's peso currency, which has lost around a quarter of its value against the U.S. dollar since August due to the U.S. recession and the global financial crisis, 'may be somewhat undervalued from a medium-term perspective.'
Haksar welcomed the Mexican central bank's decision to lower interest rates in January, and said there could be room for further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus.
The IMF continues to see an economic recovery in Mexico in 2010, predicting the economy will expand 2.1 percent.

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