Quebec may elect first female premier on Sept. 4

Quebeckers go to the polls Sept. 4 to elect a new government. Predictions are that the Parti Quebecois will win making Pauline Marois the first female premier of the province.

The Globe and Mail relying on projections by ThreeHundredEight.com are predicting a minority or majority Parti Quebecois victory in Tuesday's election. However, as with the Alberta provincial election a big surprise is quite possible. A huge 28% of those surveyed in a recent Leger poll said that they might change their vote before they actually voted. Depending on how many actually change and in what direction any of the three top parties could actually win including the declining Liberals.

The final projections by the Globe source gave the PQ 34.1% of the vote and from 57 to 75 seats. The more likely result is given as 63 seats. The range of results could result in a minority or majority government. The Liberals are predicted to gain 27.9% support and between 25 and 39 seats with the more likely being 33. This would be the worst Liberal result since the PQ won in Quebec in 1976.

The Liberals might not even form the official opposition as the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) has 26.3% of the vote and should win between 20 and 31 seats. The most likely result is 27 seats The CAQ has been draining off anglophone votes from the Liberals. Of course the result may not always be a win for the CAQ but for the PQ in some constituencies.

The Liberals are heavy favorites in the Montreal area and still will probably form the opposition but Jean Charest the Liberal leader and premier may not be around to lead his party as polls show him losing in his own riding of Sherbrooke.

Quebec Solidaire a left separatist party is predicted to win one or two seats and almost double its vote from last election. The leader Amir Khadir appears headed for re-election and the co-leader may also win a seat. A final new separatist party backed by former Premier Jaques Parizeau is unlikely to win a seat and the same is true of the Green Party.

Polls show that the PQ has 37% support among francophone voters compared to just 30% for the CAQ and 20% for Liberals. However the Liberals have 61% support among non-francophones. The PQ needs to capture ridings in the suburbs of Montreal to gain a majority government. The projected range in seats is large from 15 to 24 seats. In the suburbs the Liberals trail both the CAQ and PQ badly.

The leader of the CAQ Francois Legault said that the race in Quebec was between the CAQ and the PQ. Stealing some of Jean Charest's rhetoric used to convince anglophones to vote for him, Legault said that a vote for the PQ would be a vote for a referendum on Quebec sovereignty in the near future. Perhaps this may sway some anglophone voters and also francophone voters who do not want a referendum at this time.

While the Globe and Mail seems fairly confident in their predictions they could be quite wrong and Quebec could turn out to be another Alberta.

CAQ second to PQ in Quebec election polls. Liberals in third!

As voting day nears in the Quebec provincial election, the Liberal Party led by Quebec Premier Jean Charest is running in third place in an August 24th poll. The separatist Parti Quebecois remains in first place.

Voters in Quebec go the polls September 4 to elect a new provincial government. An August 24th poll by Leger Marketing showed the Parti Quebecois (PQ) leading with 33 per cent of the vote. The newer party the CAQ(Coalition Avenir Quebec) has overtaken the ruling Liberal Party with 28% and the Liberals were third with 27%. The trend seems to be favoring the CAQ as both Liberal and the PQ seem to be losing votes to the CAQ.

The CAQ party leader Francois Legault is playing down the whole idea of a referendum on Quebec independence. Legault claims he is a nationalist rather than a sovereigntist or federalist meaning that he neither supports independence for Quebec nor does he support a federalist government. The first is the position of the PQ and the second of the ruling Liberal Party. Only 45% of Quebecers in an Angus Reid poll believe Legault would oppose sovereignty. Legault was a minister in a former PQ government before leaving the party.

Charest continually warns voters that to vote for CAQ is the same as voting PQ. Legault has said he would vote "no" if there is a third referendum. Legault promises to keep the issue on the backburner for a decade if his party wins the election. Legault promises that if elected:

“I will defend neither sovereignty nor Canadian unity.”

While a somewhat negative promise no doubt it is meant to distinguish his position from that of the Liberals and the PQ. Legault's tactics seem to be working. The CAQ has attracted up to a quarter of those who voted Liberal last election and even 15% from the PQ. The PQ is holding on to more of their voters than the Liberals.

Legault did well in a debate with the other two leaders according to many. He also echoed Obama's successful slogan "Yes, we can." by insisting "We can do it." Legault is critical of the power of Quebec unions. He is likely to capture right wing votes even among anglophones.

Quebec to hold election on September 4th

Premier of Quebec Jean Charest has triggered an election on September 4 after a meeting this morning with his cabinet. Charest's Liberal government has slumped in polls as investigations continue into corruption in the Quebec construction industry Quebec premier Jean Charest is the longest-serving premier of any province. However, he is facing a fierce battle this time around. Not only are there damaging corruption investigations ongoing but many citizens are upset by the harsh conditions imposed on demonstrators by Bill 78. The bill created even more demonstrations by students and others.

 The main opposition is the Parti Quebecois (PQ) led by Pauline Marois. The party is for the independence of Quebec as Wikipedia notes:. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is a centre-left provincial political party that advocates national sovereignty for the province of Quebec and secession from Canada. The Party traditionally has support from the labour movement. Marois has been party leader since 2007. At a news conference this morning Marois set out her separatist views: "We prefer that Quebec be a normal country. We choose freedom," . "In the coming weeks, it will be our turn to choose. It is not Canada's duty to pick our government for us, it's our turn to decide by voting." The Parti Quebecois also faces opposition from The Coalition Avenir Quebec formed early this year. The new party has merged with the existing Action Democratique du Quebec. Polls show that the party is trailing the two main parties. There are other parties as well in the contest.

Charest has been in power since 2003 and is attempting to win a fourth term. While not endorsing any party student leaders will campaign against Charest and the Liberals. Student organizations hope to see the government replaced. Polls show the Liberals and Parti Quebecois neck in neck with about 32 per cent support each while the Coalition Avenir Quebec is in third place with 20 per cent.

 An important issue in the election will be the tuition hikes that brought long and sustained protests against the government. While the majority of citizens actually supported a hike there was strong reaction against the harsh terms of Bill 81 that severely restricted protests with stiff fines for violation of the regulations. Luc Turgeon a professor at the University of Ottawa said:"This election is about the future of the province,"...."What has transpired in Quebec in the last few months is a bit of a social crisis." Many of the student organizations were concerned with more than just tuition. They were concerned about job prospects and the future of the province. Their concerns brought them support from some labor unions. Turgeon said there would be a debate about austerity programs and cuts to entitlements versus other strategies to cut the huge deficit the province faces.

The Charest government also faces corruption charges. Key Liberal politicians appear linked to questionable deals with the construction industry. The election will occur before an inquiry into corruption will resume later in September.

Charest will attempt to portray the Parti Quebecois as wishing to immediately have a referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Polls shows that as of now of those who have made up their mind 62 per cent would vote against separation. No doubt jobs and the economy loom larger in the minds of many voters. Even if elected the Parti Quebecois is likely to put off any referendum until polls are more in their favor. The campaign promises to be quite heated with no clear winner at the start of campaigning. For more see this article.

Students in day of protest in Montreal and Quebec City

Thousands rallied in another day of protest in the Quebec cities of Montreal and Quebec City the capital of the province. The day of protest has been scheduled once a month since March but there have been regular protests almost every night in Montreal. The protests are over an increase in tuition fees originally but now are also over Bill 78 a draconian crack down on protests.

The protest yesterday was organized by CLASSE the largest and most militant of the Quebec student unions. Both protests were peaceful although the police declared protests in both cities illegal since no route was given beforehand. One arrest was made in Montreal.

Students plan to continue protests even over the summer. A CLASSE spokesperson said:"We think it's important to remind the Charest government the crisis is not over, and we'll continue to be in the streets, because we are still against the tuition hike and this is still our fight," Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois of CLASSE said:"Negotiation or mediation will not be fruitful without a change of position from the Liberals. Hiking tuition will not lead to any fruitful negotiations, but we are willing to be a bit less rigid than we have been in the past." Protest numbers have dwindled recently. Quebec is governed by Liberals under Jean Charest. For more see this CBC article.

Massive Montreal student protests once again over tuition hikes

Quebec students many in colorful costumes starting from several locations and taking several different routes wound through Montreal streets this afternoon. The protests are to go on until evening.

Today's protests (March 29) are just another of many almost daily protests some of which have involved clashes with police. According to the student group organizing the protest over 300,000 students are now on strike protesting against projected fee hikes to be imposed by the Quebec Liberal provincial government. The students are striking in spite of the fact that Quebec tuition fees are the lowest in Canada at present. The student organizations favor free tuition as is still prevalent in some European countries.

The protesters have blocked access to Montreal's main courthouse for some time, clogged a number of boulevards and apparently vandalized some police cars. There are plans to block downtown roadways. This is not likely to produce sympathy for their cause from motorists.

Most of the protesters were masked. This fits in with the theme picked by organizers of the Charivari an old folk tradition. It included noisemaking and mockery. No doubt the masks make it difficult for police to identify protesters as well!

Montreal police released a map of the four different routes planned by demonstrators. The police also issued a set of rules "for a successful demonstration". Protesters were urged to leave an area if and when the police declared the demonstration illegal. Demonstrators have been known to ignore such warnings! For more see this CBC article.