Latest two polls show Liberals with significant lead or virtually tied with Conservatives

The latest two polls listed at Eric Grenier's CBC poll tracker show quite different results. An EKOS poll shows the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual tie while a Nanos/Globe poll shows the Liberals leading by over six percentage points.

+ Add Image	1 of 2

Grenier manages to spin the results so that he can predict that after the long campaign Justin Trudeau will likely be the next Canadian Prime Minister:After 78 days, it all comes down to tomorrow. And the polls, at least, suggest that the day will go to the Liberals, installing Justin Trudeau as Canada's next prime minister.​Up to and including those published by early Sunday morning, the Liberals have led in 17 consecutive polls, including surveys conducted by eight different polling firms using an array of methodologies.

While strictly speaking Grenier is correct, the most recent two polls give quite divergent pictures of the situation just before the election.

The most recent poll taken from October 15 to 17 by Nanos/Globe does show a signicant Liberal lead. The Liberal party has 37.3 percent of the vote while the Conservatives have just 30.5, a 6.8 percent lead for the Liberals. The NDP is well behind at 22.1. However, a new EKOS polltaken on October 15 and 16 shows a virtual tie for first with the Liberals at 33.7 percent and the Conservatives at 33.3, a difference of a mere 0.4 percent within the margin of error. While it is true that the vast majority of polls give the Liberals a significant lead, surely the EKOS poll should lead one to be a bit more cautious in claiming the polls predict that Trudeau will be the next prime minister. In contrast to Grenier, the EKOS headline says that we do not know the winner and EKOS claims that the outcome will likely be a nail-biter.

The latest poll tracker averages, however, still do show a significant Liberal lead. Up to October 17th, the Conservatives have 31.2 percent of the vote, down a marginal 0.1 from the last average. The NDP are at 22.3 down o.2 percent, and the Liberals at 36.3 also down marginally 0.1 percent. The Bloc Quebecois is up to 4.9, a gain of 0.2 from the last averages and quite significant since they run only in Quebec. Greens are down marginally at 4.4 a decline of 0.1 and other parties have gained to 0.9 up 0.2 points. Some voters must be opting to some of the smaller parties. Seat projections also favour the Liberals with an average of 137, to 122 for the Conservatives, and just 73 now for the NDP. The Bloc Quebecois has increased their seats to 5, while the Green party remains at just one seat. Perhaps, Grenier will add one or two polls later today but right now, the outlook is not quite as clear for a Liberal victory as Grenier makes out, unless one plays down the significance of the EKOS poll.

The NDP outlook does not look that favourable. The polls all put the NDP far behind as Grenier notes: "... every poll has the New Democrats in third, trailing the Conservatives by between seven and 12 points and the Liberals by between 12 and 17 points."However, neither the Liberals or Conservatives appear headed for a majority. The NDP can still play a significant role in determining the policies of any minority government.

August 24 poll averages show NDP in slim lead

A recent poll by Nanos, Globe and Mail, CTV shows the three main parties in a virtual tie although other recent polls still show the NDP ahead by several points. Nevertheless the NDP vote percentage has gone down since the last CBC poll-tracker averages.

+ Add Image	1 of 2

The Nanos poll shows the Conservatives at 30.1 percent of the vote, the NDP is at 29.1 percent and the Liberals at 29.9. The Nanos poll is in contrast to two other recent polls that still have the NDP leading by several points. Nanos polls for some reason in several cases give lower values for the NDP than other polls as can be seen by the list of polls at the CBC poll-tracker.

Nevertheless the poll averages also show a decline for the NDP and the three parties closer in the polls. The most recent poll-tracker results averaged on August 24 are: Conservatives 29.4 percentage of vote, a slight gain of 0.2 from the last polls; the NDP at 32.3, a significant drop of 1.5 from last time; and the Liberals at 28.3 the largest gain of 0.8. Seat projections show the NDP still ahead with 126 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 118 and the Liberals trailing with only 93. The Green Party would win one seat and the Parti Quebecois none.

In the previous elections in 2008 and 2011, Harper was able to successfully claim that his Conservative government was best suited to guide the economy. This time around with the Canadian economy in the doldrums if not recession and the stock markets tanking, this advantage appears to be declining. The economy is still a crucial election issue. A recent Ipsos Reid poll showed that 76 per cent of Canadians considered the economy "absolutely critical" to determining their vote. Three quarters also said the same for creating jobs. An Abacus Data polls shows that only 43 percent of Canadians think the economy is good or very good. Two years ago 67 per cent thought this. The numbers of those who think the country is on the wrong track have increased while those thinking it is on the right track, still 36 per cent, has declined. While one third think the economy is still growing, 64 percent think it is shrinking. There are more detailed results at the Abacus site with quite helpful figures.

On the issue of leadership on the 15 issues tested, on all 15 a majority of respondents thought Mulcair or Trudeau would make more acceptable decisions than Harper. However, on the economy, respondents in three of four recent polls gave Harper an edge of one or two points over Mulcair and the NDP. An IPSOS poll showed a wider lead of 36 to 28 percent for Harper. If the vote were on the economy alone Harper might win at most a small minority victory and perhaps not even that as he no longer has a huge advantage on the issue. With Canada facing economic troubles and the energy sector in particular badly hit, the opposition is sure to blame Harper for this situation even though much is beyond his control. Likely, emphasis will continue on the issue of ethics in opposition attacks on Harper. Polls so far do not show any negative results for the Conservatives in response to the revelations at the Duffy trial.