Perhaps the Liberals will now be thinking twice of pushing Ignatieff as leader and sabotaging Dion. Perhaps they need a real leadership race again. Perhaps this will help the fortunes of Green and NDP as people give up hope in the two old line parties although most people seem committed to the choice of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. If the number get much better for the Tories Harper may try to engineer an election this year rather than trying to desperately avoid one as he did last year!
Tories lead Liberals by seven points: poll
(CP) – 20 hours ago
OTTAWA — The federal Conservatives continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals, but remain well shy of majority territory, a new poll suggests.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 35 per cent nationally, compared with 28 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP was at 15 per cent, while the Greens and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 10 per cent.
Doug Anderson, Harris-Decima senior vice-president, said graphs of polling data over the last three months show a clear downward trend for the Liberals.
"You could ski like a bunny hill down that line," he said. "It's not erratic. There's a little bit of an upward tick at one point, but it's a fairly consistent trend compared to the Conservative number where you see a little bit more volatility."
He said the Liberals should be worried.
"I think that decline is something that should be troubling for the Liberals and presents opportunity for the other parties."
The main beneficiaries?
"Clearly the greatest opportunity is for the Conservatives and they are the ones who have clearly forged ahead."
The Liberals have little to cheer about regionally, either.
"I would say that there isn't really a region that is particularly comfortable for the Liberals right now," Anderson said. "Everything west of Quebec is a problem for them."
The poll data suggests the Conservatives have jumped to a four-point lead in Ontario with 40 per cent support, and they continue to dominate in the West.
The Tories trailed badly in Quebec at just 15 per cent - nine points back of the Liberals and 26 points behind the Bloc.
The poll indicates the Liberals were ahead in only one region - Atlantic Canada - where they led the Tories by three percentage points and the NDP by five. But the sample there is small and the margin of error is higher.
Showing posts with label Harris-Decima. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harris-Decima. Show all posts
Friday, October 16, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Canada's minority fatigue.
Raphael Alexander: Canada's minority fatigue. Actually the poll results show that a coalition government is preferred by a greater number than any of the four options offered in the poll of a Liberal majority or minority or a Conservative majority or minority. Interesting that the pollsters already frame the poll questions in terms of a two party system. No bias there of course.
This is from the National Post.
Raphael Alexander
A new Harris-Decima survey seems to indicate that Canadians tire of the long-standing stalemate in Ottawa, and long for a majority government. 64% of respondents would prefer a majority government over a minority one, up from 52% recorded in a similar survey in 2007.
As the Harris-Decima poll concludes, Canadians who might initially have believed a minority government would create cooperation between parties have instead been treated to four years of the rankest bitterness and petty squabbling. The constant election threats, posturing, and showdowns over minor policies, such as Employment Insurance reform, has given people the desire for one ruling party:
The pollsters gave respondents four scenarios to ponder: A Liberal majority or minority, or a Conservative majority or minority.
The Liberals came out on top in both respects — with 30 per cent preferring a Liberal majority, and 14 per cent a Liberal minority, as compared to the 24 per cent who backed a Conservative majority and nine per cent who wanted a Conservative minority.
Walker said the results are an indication that the Liberals are the second choice for a majority of Canadian voters, and that could be a significant factor in the next election.
I still don’t see the results of this poll changing the events on the ground; that is, there continues to be a stalemate in the polls, and opinion isn’t likely to shift either way for quite some time. I don’t believe either party has shown they deserve a majority mandate either, although to be quite honest I would be very curious to see whether the Conservatives would begin to make some genuine conservative policy under a majority mandate.
Is it a majority government that Canadians want to see, or just something that better resembles stability? If Canadian politics wasn’t so hard-wired toward confrontation on every little issue, or if each policy wasn’t challenged as some kind of threat to Canada, more might actually get accomplished. While it is the obligation of the opposition to hold the government to task, it seems a more cooperative approach would be possible if they did not seem to oppose every suggestion made by the government.
Another surprise from the Harris-Decima survey is that 45% if Canadians would support the idea of a coalition government after the next election. Although some people see a coalition government of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc as a desperate grab for power, I think it’s also a reflection of the genuine frustration with the current ineffectiveness of our government. Perhaps some people think a coalition would be just what is needed to let one side rule undeterred for a while, a view that is backed up by the fact that the Conservatives have been seen as the sole party that opposes the fragmented leftwing voter bloc. And here’s another thought. Although the Conservatives could win another election against Michael Ignatieff, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Liberals came very close to restoring all the seats they lost since 2006. If that’s the case, the possibility of a deal being hatched between the Liberals and NDP or the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois is a very serious one indeed.
National Post
This is from the National Post.
Raphael Alexander
A new Harris-Decima survey seems to indicate that Canadians tire of the long-standing stalemate in Ottawa, and long for a majority government. 64% of respondents would prefer a majority government over a minority one, up from 52% recorded in a similar survey in 2007.
As the Harris-Decima poll concludes, Canadians who might initially have believed a minority government would create cooperation between parties have instead been treated to four years of the rankest bitterness and petty squabbling. The constant election threats, posturing, and showdowns over minor policies, such as Employment Insurance reform, has given people the desire for one ruling party:
The pollsters gave respondents four scenarios to ponder: A Liberal majority or minority, or a Conservative majority or minority.
The Liberals came out on top in both respects — with 30 per cent preferring a Liberal majority, and 14 per cent a Liberal minority, as compared to the 24 per cent who backed a Conservative majority and nine per cent who wanted a Conservative minority.
Walker said the results are an indication that the Liberals are the second choice for a majority of Canadian voters, and that could be a significant factor in the next election.
I still don’t see the results of this poll changing the events on the ground; that is, there continues to be a stalemate in the polls, and opinion isn’t likely to shift either way for quite some time. I don’t believe either party has shown they deserve a majority mandate either, although to be quite honest I would be very curious to see whether the Conservatives would begin to make some genuine conservative policy under a majority mandate.
Is it a majority government that Canadians want to see, or just something that better resembles stability? If Canadian politics wasn’t so hard-wired toward confrontation on every little issue, or if each policy wasn’t challenged as some kind of threat to Canada, more might actually get accomplished. While it is the obligation of the opposition to hold the government to task, it seems a more cooperative approach would be possible if they did not seem to oppose every suggestion made by the government.
Another surprise from the Harris-Decima survey is that 45% if Canadians would support the idea of a coalition government after the next election. Although some people see a coalition government of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc as a desperate grab for power, I think it’s also a reflection of the genuine frustration with the current ineffectiveness of our government. Perhaps some people think a coalition would be just what is needed to let one side rule undeterred for a while, a view that is backed up by the fact that the Conservatives have been seen as the sole party that opposes the fragmented leftwing voter bloc. And here’s another thought. Although the Conservatives could win another election against Michael Ignatieff, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Liberals came very close to restoring all the seats they lost since 2006. If that’s the case, the possibility of a deal being hatched between the Liberals and NDP or the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois is a very serious one indeed.
National Post
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