Pre-election polls had correct trends but wrong figures for federal election

The last poll averages from the CBC poll tracker had the trends correct but the magnitude of the increase in support for the Liberals and the decline in support for the NDP was missed.

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Few thought the Liberals would end up with a majority government yesterday but that is what happened and with more than a dozen seats to spare. As of now, the Liberals had 184 seats and the Conservatives just 99. The NDP had just 44 seats, a few more than half what had been projected at the last poll tracker. The Liberals went from 34 seats in 2011 to 184 last night a gain of 150 seats. The Conservatives lost 67 and the NDP 59. The Bloc Quebecois gained considerably in Quebec to 10 seats while the Greens retained their one seat.

The final poll tracker averages showed the Liberals at 37.2 percent support, a lead of 6.3 percentage points over the Conservatives at 30.9. The gap had been widening in the last few sets of polls. The NDP had fallen to 21.7 percent support with their trend increasing downward. The trends for both the NDP and the Liberals accelerated in the final poll, just before the election and during voting. The Liberals captured 39.5, of the vote an increase of 2.3 points over the final polls. The NDP fell to 19.7 percent, a further drop of two percentage points. In contrast the polls were close to the Conservative final result that was actually up one point to 31.9.

I thought that some media reports were spinning the Liberal vote to look as if the lead was larger than it was, but as it turns out it was even larger still. I thought some polls might have been underestimating the Conservative vote and also that of the NDP. I was wrong about that too. The NDP was even worse off than the polls suggested and the polls were close to the actual Conservative vote.

What counts is not just the percentage of votes a party received but how that vote is distributed throughout the country. In rural areas of the prairies, the Conservative vote is huge — but that will hardly help them in urban areas. There may have been considerable strategic voting by NDP voters who decided that the best way to ensure Harper was defeated was to vote for the Liberals. In areas such as the Atlantic, this may have helped defeat several popular NDP candidates and elect Liberals.

I had thought that the revelations of the connection of Daniel Gagnier, the former co-chair of the Trudeau campaign with his lobbying for a pipeline company, might have hurt the Trudeau campaign. It obviously did not. I thought as well that the NDP criticism of the TPP near the end of the campaign would help its cause. I was wrong. I thought that Trudeau's rhetoric about change and helping the middle class was rather dull standard rhetoric with echoes of the first Obama campaign. It seems to have worked. Neil MacDonald points out some interesting parallels between Trudeau's and Obama's rhetoric:

Barack Obama: "Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope?"

Justin Trudeau: "Canadians are tired of being cynical."

Obama: "When you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."

Trudeau: "We're asking those who have done well to do a little more for the people who need it."

Obama: "There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

Trudeau: "Conservatives are not our enemies. They're our neighbours. They want what's best for their country, just like we do."

The TPP deal is probably quite safe under Trudeau. Of course Canadians can feel safe too, since Trudeau supported Harper's draconian anti-liberal anti-terror bill. The Globe and Mail can claim at least half their endorsement was carried out. While the voters did not vote the Conservative Party back into power as they advised, they did manage to force Harper to resign as leader exactly what the Globe endorsed. I wonder if Justin will soon find himself following the politically incorrect tradition of his dad and telling protesters to "fuddle duddle" as shown on the appended video.

Globe and Mail endorses Conservatives but pans Harper

The Globe and Mail published an editorial endorsement of the Conservatives as they have done for several elections now but at the same time they reject Stephen Harper.

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One might think that this was a piece in The Onion, but no it is actually in the Globe and Mail. This is the fourth straight federal election in which the Globe has endorsed the Conservatives. The editorial claims the Conservative Party deserves another term primarily because of its economic policies but that Harper should go because he has been bad, bad, bad. The Globe then is in the anyone but Harper camp but at the same time wants to elect the Conservatives. Who said you cannot square the circle?

Harper, the editorial claims, has created a "rotten" governmental culture. His vision is "narrow." He exhibits "meanness of spirit." His campaign has descended into "American-style, culture war over niqabs and 'barbaric cultural practices." The editorial moans: “The spectacle of a prime minister seemingly willing to say anything, or demonize anyone, in an attempt to get re-elected has demeaned our politics." The Globe agrees with those who say it is time for change and Harper must go but insists that the Conservatives should stay: “It is not time for the Conservatives to go. But it is time for Mr. Harper to take his leave.” So when we elect another Conservative government on Monday the Globe and Mail calls on Harper to quickly resign.

This would be a novel move for a leader who wins an election. The Globe does not say what it will do if Harper does not resign. One article points out that the Globe's own editorial board has criticized the party countless times for being "anti-democratic, xenophobic, and opposed to Canadian values." Of course this is quite wrong. It is not the party but Harper whom they are criticizing. As the editorial concludes: The Conservatives have been a big tent party in the past, and they must be once again. Fiscally prudent, economically liberal and socially progressive – the party could be all of those things, and it once was. But it won’t be, as long as Mr. Harper is at its head. His party deserves to be re-elected.Perhaps this was a draft editorial left lying around that was supposed to be published on April 1 and mistakenly published on Friday.

NDP set to gain some seats in Saskatchewan in federal election

When the recent federal election was called, Saskatchewan had 13 Conservative MPs and one Liberal. The NDP did not have a single seat. This time around the NDP looks to be winning several urban seats and one northern riding as well.

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Saskatchewan, in the past, has been a stronghold of the NDP and the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation(CCF) before it:In 1944, the CCF formed the first social-democratic government in North America when it was elected to form the provincial government in Saskatchewan.[5] In 1961, the CCF was succeeded by the New Democratic Party (NDP)

Not only did the CCF and NDP form provincial governments but they also sent MPs to Ottawa. The CCF had a very strong base within the rural farming community as well as within cities. Early policies were strongly socialist and the Regina Manifesto called for the replacement of capitalism by the cooperative commonwealth. By the time the party transformed itself into the NDP in 1961 it had become more a reformist party with some of the leaders seeing it as a Canadian version of the UK Labor Party. In the 21st century the party has turned even further right in the hope it can achieve electoral success. In Saskatchewan, the NDP lost out to the right-of- center Saskatchewan Party in the November provincial election of 2007. In the November 2011 provincial election the Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall won 49 of 58 seats. In the federal election of the same year the NDP did not win a single seat. Yet the NDP is making somewhat of a comeback in Saskatchewan at the federal level. While the Liberals appear not set to make gains, its one seat in Regina seems quite safe with an 80 percent chance of a win.

Predictions are that the NDP could gain up to five seats this election. However, the margin of expect victory is slim in four of the five ridings with only about a two thirds chance of winning. One northern riding seem a more certain win an 80 per cent chance. Most of the Conservative ridings are quite safe except for some with a considerable number of urban voters such as Regina Qu'appelle.

While Saskatchewan has the same number of seats as in the last election a number of boundaries have changed. Many urban ridings that previously had considerable numbers of rural areas and voters included now are entirely urban. Joe Garcea, a political scientist at the University of Saskatchewan, said: "I think that there are many more constituencies up for grabs than ever before, Of the new boundaries Garcea said: ".. you don't get that urban-rural split. Some believe that that may help the NDP because the Conservatives were getting a lot of their support in such ridings in the rural areas."

Saskatchewan still has a number of enterprises left over from periods when it was more socialist-oriented. Cooperatives and credit unions are ubiquitous both in rural and urban settings. There is a provincial bus company, provincial power corporation, telephones, and government monopoly auto insurance, The right-of-center Saskatchewan Party won power by adopting some of the popular NDP social programs. After doing badly in an election in 2003 the Saskatchewan party caucus all voted in favor of the NDP's Crown Corporation Public Ownership Act that provided legislative entrenchment for the ownership of major crown utilities and services. The left borrows from the right to get elected and in Saskatchewan the right returned the favor.

In urban areas of the prairies, in particular, Harper's policies are becoming less and less popular providing an opportunity for opposition parties to gain seats. The NDP may start to regain some of its power in the province that gave birth to its predecessor the CCF. Don't expect a second edition of the Regina Manifesto soon though.

Liberals will make gains in Manitoba in federal election

The Liberals and the Conservatives are almost tied in the polls for the upcoming federal election in Manitoba with NDP support shrinking.

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A recent Probe Research Poll shows that roughly 39 percent of decided voters would vote for the incumbent Conservatives under Stephen Harper. The same number would vote for the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Only 18 percent would vote for the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair. The Liberals are making an amazing comeback after receiving just 18 percent of the vote in the 2011 election. Curtis Brown, vice president of Probe Research said: “The Liberals are now in a tie with the Conservatives in Manitoba... if you think to the last election, the Liberals were really in the ditch.” Brown noted that NDP support was down from the last election.

The ruling provincial NDP had a messy leadership fight in which many cabinet ministers challenged the premier demanding he resign. Although Sellnger retained his leadership, the internal fight with many of his best cabinet ministers weakened the party. Selinger also hiked the provincial sales tax after promising he would not during his campaign. Another Probe Research poll of voter preferences with respect to parties provincially shows the NDP losing even core support. The NDP has the support of only 25 percent of voters down 4 percent since June with the Liberals at 24 percent up 5 percent since June. The Conservatives have a 45 percent share of decided voters a slight decline of one percent since June.

Recent projections by Eric Grenier would see the Conservatives winning seven seats in Manitoba, the Liberals four, and the NDP three. The NDP is expected to win the northern Churchill riding with a 75 percent chance. The other two NDP seats are in Winnipeg, Elmwood Transcona, 71 percent chance and Winnipeg Center a long-time stronghold at 94 percent. The four Liberal seats are all in the city of Winnipeg. South Center is close with the Liberals having only a 63 percent chance over the 2nd place Conservatives. The Liberals are expected to gain Saint-Boniface-Saint Vital and also Winnipeg South. If the Liberal vote in Winnipeg continues to increase they could win even more seats.

Liberals gaining ground as NDP lead shrinks in latest polls

New CBC poll-tracker averages show the NDP lead is shrinking, the Liberals are gaining ground, and the Conservatives have sunk to third place.

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The CBC poll-tracker of averages now has three polls in September to add to its averages. The results up to September 2 are: Conservatives, 27.7 percent of the vote down 1.7 percent from last average; Liberals 29.5 percent, up 1.8 percent; the NDP 32.1 percent up 0.9 percent.

Seat projections based upon the above averages are: Conservatives 101; NDP 122; Liberals 114 and Green party one. The NDP are nowhere near the 170 seats needed for a majority. The Conservatives have now dropped to third place in seats as well as popular vote percentage. On social media the Conservatives at first appear to be doing well as shown by graphs here. The Liberals appear to outperform the NDP. However, the data may be misleading as a lot of traffic on Conservative social media is created by critics who lose no opportunity to try to counter Conservative claims. Some of the Conservative media campaign is tried and true. A photo op shows Harper holding a baby.

The NDP appears to be losing considerable support in BC while the Liberals are gaining considerably more support in Ontario. Compared to the last election the Liberals are projected to win 47 more seats.

The most recent poll by Leger in the Globe and Mail this Friday shows: NDP,31 percent; Liberals, 30 percent and Conservatives at 28 percent. On Saturday a Forum poll in the Toronto Star showed: NDP, 36 percent; Liberals, 32 percent and Conservatives at a dismal 24 percent. TheEKOS poll published Friday found: NDP, 30.2 percent; Conservatives, 29.4, and Liberals with 27.7. The NDP appears unable to pull away from the pack while the Liberals are gaining. However, all three main parties are quite close in the polls.

Why Liberals should vote for the NDP this election

In the past when the New Democratic Party had no chance of forming the government, the Liberals have often called for NDP supporters to vote Liberal in order defeat the Conservatives.

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During those periods, the NDP languished in third place with dismal polling numbers. However, now the NDP leads in the polls and the Liberals are in third place behind the Conservatives. The NDP should be calling upon Liberals to return the favor and now vote strategically to ensure that Harper is defeated. There are other reasons as well that Liberals should consider voting for the NDP.

The NDP leader Thomas Mulcair was himself for many years a Liberal and cabinet minister in the Quebec provincial government. Mulcair served as Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment, and Parks in the Quebec Liberal government of Jean Charest. During his tenure he promoted and passed in November 2004 a Sustainable Development Plan that included an amendment to the Quebec Charter of Human Rights and Freedoms to include a right to live in a healthy environment that respects biodiversity. In 2006, after Mulcair opposed a government development plan in a national park he was removed from his cabinet position. Those within the Liberal party who supported former leader Stephan Dionne in his move to attempt a Green Shift within the Liberal Party might do well to support the perhaps more saleable environmental policies of Mulcair. Dionne led the Liberals from 2006 to 2008:The Liberals lost support on 14 October federal election, being reduced to 77 seats, down from 103 won in the 2006 election. They captured only 26.2 per cent of the popular voteThe Liberals have had a continuing leadership problem. While Dionne was the choice of those at the leadership convention and not favoured by some Liberal king makers the next leader was favoured by the establishment.

Michael Ignatieff was a top academic who left a position at Harvard where he taught to enter the contest for the Liberal leadership. He sometimes forgot whether he was an American or a Canadian. He supported the US-led invasion of Iraq and also had a rosy view of the US Empire:As a journalist, Ignatieff observed that the United States had established "an empire lite, a global hegemony whose grace notes are free markets, human rights and democracy, enforced by the most awesome military power the world has ever known."Ignatieff turned out to be far more disastrous as a leader than Dionne. In the 2011 federal election, Ignatieff lost his own seat. The Liberal party had its worst showing in history winning only 34 seats. It placed third far behind the Conservatives enabling the NDP to become the official opposition for the first time ever. Now it is time for the Liberals to vote strategically for the NDP.

The Liberals showed their affinity to the right wing of the NDP when they chose Bob Rae the former NDP premier of Ontario as their interim leader. With the election of Justin Trudeau Liberals no doubt thought that they were on their way to power again. At first, polls encouraged this view. Just days after Trudeau won the leadership a poll showed that 43 percent of respondents favoured the Liberals with just 30 percent for the Conservatives and only 19 percent for the NDP, the official opposition. In July 2014 the Liberals still had a ten point lead over the Conservatives with the NDP coming third. Just over a year later under Trudeau's leadership the NDP is now in first place several points ahead of the Conservatives with the Liberals still trailing the Conservatives and in third place. Liberals should realize for the third election in a row their party is going nowhere and their prime duty is to turf out Harper.

The Conservatives have had a field day criticizing Trudeau because of the constant gaffes he makes. He jokes about Russia and the Ukraine He admired China's ability to control the economy. He famously said that the budget will balance itself. The Conservatives take this out of context as Trudeau was claiming that given good economic growth the budget would balance itself. This is still questionable. However, the Conservatives can use Trudeau's many gaffes as part of a clever ad campaign as shown in the appended video. They hammer home the theme of "just not ready" as applying to Trudeau.

Trudeau has supported Harper's regressive anti-terror bill even without amendments. Mulcair and probably many Liberals reject the bill. Another reason to vote for Mulcair. Trudeau says he will not use the politics of fear as Harper does. Yet in supporting the anti-terror bill Trudeau is doing exactly that. While Trudeau would legalize marijuana, Mulcair would act faster decriminalizing it a day after being elected. Come on all you Liberals! Get out there and vote NDP.